April 2022 (April 2008/2011 redux)

[RentonHill]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Talk about risking your life... wow!  

Lmao there goes the roof…bro had already accepted his chances

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Lmao there goes the roof…bro had already accepted his chances

Looks like he was at the clubhouse on a golf course... so he probably figured it wasn't his roof or his problem.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We ready for April blast 2022?!

[BLI snowman]

4 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

This is pretty inaccurate.      Go back farther and our summers were not normally like the coldest and wettest years.   Those were on far end of the climo spectrum.     This pattern all summer would be extremely unusual and should not be expected.

You should check out 1899. Pretty far back. Was just looking back and reminiscing over that spring and summer the other day.

[BLI snowman]

3 hours ago, Deweydog said:

So it’s about that time…

What’s everybody’s summer predictions???

Here’s mine:

June: Slightly cool/average precip

July: Warm/dry

August: Average/wet

June: Warm/dry (f*ck June)

July: Cool/wet

August: Warm/wet

May will be cool/wet.

No noteworthy fires except for the big bonfire we're all gonna have at Tim's house to celebrate the wettest late July stretch since 1993.

[BLI snowman]

39 minutes ago, Phil said:

Holy crap..watch the end of this video.

 

Definitely shaping up to be an active tornado season. -PNA springs have a way of doing that.

Our little mid month chilliness should lead to some intense stuff down the road in the Plains and SE, me thinks.

[Phil]

24 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Definitely shaping up to be an active tornado season. -PNA springs have a way of doing that.

Our little mid month chilliness should lead to some intense stuff down the road in the Plains and SE, me thinks.

Yeah it looks rough, particularly as the same areas look to get slammed multiple times.

Starting to get a bit concerned even up here based on the analog pool for weeks 3/4. At least half of our historical early season outbreaks are showing up at once.  

[FroYoBro]

2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I would sure like to see the 6 to 10 inch snowstorm the ECMWF is showing for next week.  I will say it's conceivable with the pattern coming up, but exceedingly unlikely.  1911 is the only year on record that a really big snowstorm has happened in the Central Puget Sound in the period of record so deep into April.

HE'S BACK!

[Phil]

ECMWF seasonal now continues the La Niña into autumn.

Trend of the last 4 ECMWF seasonal runs for July 2022:

[Phil]

FWIW, the new ECMWF seasonal also shifted to a troughy/-PNA solution for June.

Still shows torching across the continent in J/A/S, but I suspect that might change as we get closer.

[RentonHill]

35 minutes ago, Phil said:

ECMWF seasonal now continues the La Niña into autumn.

Trend of the last 4 ECMWF seasonal runs for July 2022:

So what are the triple Nina analogs and their context?? Pls respond with as many acronyms as possible just **** my shiit up

[RentonHill]

Moon and set

[Phil]

34 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

So what are the triple Nina analogs and their context?? Pls respond with as many acronyms as possible just **** my shiit up

Most are ancient, well past their sell-by date. Looks like 1874/75, 1894/95, 1910/11, 1917/18, 1975/76, and 2000/01.

1956/57 is debatable.

[MossMan]

Speaking of the PNA…

[RentonHill]

ICON vs 12z

[RentonHill]

OR cascades go from zero to hero this run. Would be cool to see it happen

[RentonHill]

My 3yo colors inside the lines better than the GFS

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

My 3yo colors inside the lines better than the GFS

The Puget Sound snow all happens on Saturday.

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS is vastly different for next week though.  Undercutting happens much quicker and farther north.   Still a small chance it won't snow for a week straight like the ECMWF showed.   

[Meatyorologist]

Check this environment out right before the CZ develops over North Seattle... I've lived in this part of the city since 2009. These kinds of systems with unstable WNW flow and morning sun+enhanced destabilization is a smoking gun for lightning over my area.

As the back half of the trough swings through, the backing windss take over, producing a surge of westerlies through the Strait and igniting the CZ once those westerlies converge. In WNW flow like this, it usually takes place over my place.

In the evening, as WNW persists and the environmental profile remains cold and unstable, CZ related snowfall will become the next area of focus. Taken literally the GFS shows the CZ will remain stationary over the metro area as things cool, bringing about heavy wet snow to the city. Later in the night it shows temperatures dynamically dropping below freezing due to persistent heavy precipitation; hence the massive stripe of snow over Seattle in @RentonHillTC's post. These setups are typical for April snow, but dynamically dropping below freezing this late in the season would be remarkable.

In practice these highly dynamic situations almost never play out as depicted, whether that means CZ's popping up elsewhere, or a complete voidance of lightning/snow altogether. The former I can excuse, but the latter.... It should snow somewhere. Tim will probably be grumbling. Down south, from SW WA to the Rogue Valley, cold onshore flow will bring about random snowfall in the valleys and a nice blanket above 800' or so.

[TT-SEA]

20 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

It should snow somewhere. Tim will probably be grumbling. Down south, from SW WA to the Rogue Valley, cold onshore flow will bring about random snowfall in the valleys and a nice blanket above 800' or so.

We won't be here this weekend... so don't really care if it snows here.    We wisely wait until late April for any gardening activities. 

[Phil]

45 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z GFS is vastly different for next week though.  Undercutting happens much quicker and farther north.   Still a small chance it won't snow for a week straight like the ECMWF showed.   

Looks to me like the GFS is struggling with that TPV lobe in Alaska around D4-6. No other piece of guidance does that weird fujiwhara thing, not even a single EPS member.

[Phil]

28 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We won't be here this weekend... so don't really care if it snows here.    We wisely wait until late April for any gardening activities. 

Where are you guys going?

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

Looks to me like the GFS is struggling with that TPV lobe in Alaska around D4-6. No other piece of guidance does that weird fujiwhara thing, not even a single EPS member.

Yeah... I am just grasping at straws.   I know it will be snowing all of next week.    

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... I am just grasping at straws.   I know it will be snowing all of next week.    

I’ll be jealous as heck if you get accumulating snow in mid-April. Haven’t seen that here since 2007. Would love one last winter wonderland scene before the sauna starts.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Where are you guys going?

Charleston tomorrow morning... then Orlando.   Assuming our flights don't get cancelled.     I get to enjoy this storm all over again!   Actually Thursday looks decent in Charleston with just some morning showers and high around 80... and Friday is still around 70 and should be fairly sunny.   Then mid 70s over the weekend in Orlando.   

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Charleston tomorrow morning... then Orlando.   Assuming our flights don't get cancelled.     I get to enjoy this storm all over again!   Actually Thursday looks decent in Charleston with just some morning showers and high around 80... and Friday is still around 70 and should be fairly sunny.   Then mid 70s over the weekend in Orlando.   

Oh, nice. I have a friend that moved to Charleston a couple years ago. I think it’s a beautiful area with a comforting feel (absent the crappy summer weather, lol).

I think Brennan moved to SC as well.

[Phil]

Wow, looks you’re arriving just in time for an an anomalous trough/ULL into the SE US. Mother Nature must know of your travel plans.  

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Phil said:

Wow, looks you’re arriving just in time for an an anomalous trough/ULL into the SE US. Mother Nature must know of your travel plans.  

Yeah... hard to avoid right now.    Troughing is everywhere.    But troughing down there is not too bad at this time of year. 

 

[TacomaWaWx]

41 with a DP of 34 here. Nice night can see the moon to the west. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Gem is a dandy. 

[TT-SEA]

22 minutes ago, Phil said:

Looks to me like the GFS is struggling with that TPV lobe in Alaska around D4-6. No other piece of guidance does that weird fujiwhara thing, not even a single EPS member.

00Z GEFS reaches the the trough back across Alaska next week... sort of similar to the 00Z GFS.   

[Skagit Weather]

12 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

My son skipped classes today and went to Crystal...

I managed to make it up to Baker today. The snow in the picture below all fell last night. On top of the 30” that fell yesterday. And soon buried by the 6”+ that fell during the day today. Regardless to say 62” of new snow in basically two days was quite deep and probably the best skiing of my life.

[Phil]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

00Z GEFS reaches the the trough back across Alaska next week... sort of similar to the 00Z GFS.   

Yeah there must be some members with that weird solution.

I’d be surprised if that happens, but I’ve been wrong before.

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

I managed to make it up to Baker today. The snow in the picture below all fell last night. On top of the 30” that fell yesterday. And soon buried by the 6”+ that fell during the day today. Regardless to say 62” of new snow in basically two days was quite deep and probably the best skiing of my life.

That looks hella awesome.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yeah there must be some members with that weird solution.

I’d be surprised if that happens, but I’ve been wrong before.

Like I said... I am just hoping for something other than a week of snow but its hard to argue against the ECMWF.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

I managed to make it up to Baker today. The snow in the picture below all fell last night. On top of the 30” that fell yesterday. And soon buried by the 6”+ that fell during the day today. Regardless to say 62” of new snow in basically two days was quite deep and probably the best skiing of my life.

Our mountains are sure bare up here... very concerning.       

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Like I said... I am just hoping for something other than a week of snow but its hard to argue against the ECMWF.

I’d love a week of snow, man. That’s sick.

Either that or some dry 70°F days. April is one of the few months that can actually deliver such weather, so I’d actually enjoy some modest ridging while it’s still possible.

Our “nice weather” window is a lot shorter than yours.

[MossMan]

35 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Charleston tomorrow morning... then Orlando.   Assuming our flights don't get cancelled.     I get to enjoy this storm all over again!   Actually Thursday looks decent in Charleston with just some morning showers and high around 80... and Friday is still around 70 and should be fairly sunny.   Then mid 70s over the weekend in Orlando.   

Stay away from those Orlando amusement rides! 

[Phil]

Getting a North Bend caliber rainstorm. 🌧