April 2022 (April 2008/2011 redux)

[BLI snowman]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

It definitely happens... and did happen in the years that I listed.    And might again according to Phil.    It is what it is.    Looks pretty nice overall though... at least for the next 10-15 days.

Yes, cool with average precip is in fact pretty nice by this point in the year.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The 12z GFS operational was a huge outlier in the long range. FWIW!

As expected.    

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It definitely happens... and did happen in the years that I listed.    And might again according to Phil.    It is what it is.    Looks pretty nice overall though... at least for the next 10-15 days.

Without the differential heating/baroclinic gradients of the cold season, higher wavenumber/ULLs are common, even during upper level jet extensions, as we get deeper into spring. Not the same thing as in winter.

[TT-SEA]

Forget early May... we have had a fairly consolidated jet in the middle of July even recently.    This system in mid-July 2019 bought a couple inches of rain and 2 or 3 days of strong wind here.   It can certainly happen in May as well.  

 

[Phil]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The 12z GFS operational was a huge outlier in the long range. FWIW!

Usually it’s easy to see when the GFS is going rogue during the spring months.

Always happens the same way, takes some random shortwave over the NPAC, turns it into a cutoff ULL, then builds a horseshoe of ridging around it.

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Forget early May... we have had a fairly consolidated jet in the middle of July even recently.    This system in mid-July 2019 bought a couple inches of rain and 2 or 3 days of strong wind here.   It can certainly happen in May as well.  

 

2019 was an interesting case. Narrow Hadley Cell +ENSO summer, 4CH almost nonexistent. A significant anomaly in the context of the last decade.

Doesn’t look like we’ll repeat that this summer, unfortunately. Most likely will be a disgusting 4CH yet again, except the Niña/NPAC high signal will probably be stronger.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

2019 was an interesting case. Narrow Hadley Cell +ENSO summer, 4CH almost nonexistent. A significant anomaly in the context of the last decade.

Doesn’t look like we’ll repeat that this summer, unfortunately. Most likely will be a disgusting 4CH yet again, except the Niña/NPAC high signal will probably be stronger.

A rare warmer and wetter than normal summer here.    Usually wet summers are also cooler than normal.    And I remember you called it around April that year.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Though very very cool, May 2011 was not a massive washout down here. A lot of cloudy days. I was living in Oklahoma at the time, but I believe May 2010 was wetter. 

[Deweydog]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

Last A&W in Clark County closed around 2013. Summers began warming almost immediately.

When a local analysis of Arctic Circles is performed the results are even more discouraging.

[Phil]

14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

A rare warmer and wetter than normal summer here.    Usually wet summers are also cooler than normal.    And I remember you called it around April that year.   

That was the one year where it stuck out like a sore thumb. Usually only get a couple of those per decade.

Last’s year’s 4CH stuck out too, but that’s a difficult forecast for the PNW since its influence there is state dependent.

[Cascadia_Wx]

11 minutes ago, Phil said:

That was the one year where it stuck out like a sore thumb. Usually only get a couple of those per decade.

Last’s year’s 4CH stuck out too, but that’s a difficult forecast for the PNW since its influence there is state dependent.

Still trying to figure out what on earth happened last June 

[Deweydog]

7 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Still trying to figure out what on earth happened last June 

A big heat wave

[BLI snowman]

9 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

When a local analysis of Arctic Circles is performed the results are even more discouraging.

Yeah wow maybe 1998 for them? Been a long time. Gotta think their loss effectively put the regional arctic outbreak thing to bed.

 

[BLI snowman]

Decent looking cell near Newberg.

[Phil]

25 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Still trying to figure out what on earth happened last June 

That was insanity. To summarize what would otherwise be a bunch of jargon and acronyms: A series dominoes fell in precisely the wrong order, at precisely the wrong time, to produce an outcome drawn from the pit of hell itself.

In all likelihood, you’d have to go back to the medieval megadroughts to find anything comparable. So, basically a 1-in-800+ year event.

[RentonHill]

OK my one mariners game post sorry since everyone else has moved on but dgaf 

https://sabr.org/gamesproj/game/october-9-2001-clevelands-bartolo-colon-fires-eight-shutout-innings-in-alds-opener/

This was the last game i went to - besides a few of the years in mid-10s when my company had a suite for a day game and the team was awful and i just slammed free bud heavies for a few innings - and I remember getting dominated by Colon so thoroughly, i knew we were fubar in the playoffs even after 116 and it was obviously an omen for the times to come. 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Usually it’s easy to see when the GFS is going rogue during the spring months.

Always happens the same way, takes some random shortwave over the NPAC, turns it into a cutoff ULL, then builds a horseshoe of ridging around it.

Sigh.

[jakeinthevalley]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

When a local analysis of Arctic Circles is performed the results are even more discouraging.

I miss Skippers

[High Desert Mat?]

I wonder how humid it was back in the day on Stampede Pass. Probably dp’s in mid 80’s. 

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

18z GFS looking much more reasonable.

It thinks it’s still 4/20.

[Cascadia_Wx]

15 minutes ago, Phil said:

Sigh.

You’re going to singlehandedly will it into being at this rate

[Meatyorologist]

54 minutes ago, Phil said:

That was insanity. To summarize what would otherwise be a bunch of jargon and acronyms: A series dominoes fell in precisely the wrong order, at precisely the wrong time, to produce an outcome drawn from the pit of hell itself.

In all likelihood, you’d have to go back to the medieval megadroughts to find anything comparable. So, basically a 1-in-800+ year event.

If it weren’t for the context of global warming it would have been a far more fascinating, interesting event.

Instead it felt like a shotgun blast to an already broken bone, and a sign of an ultimate and permenant shift towards an extremely warmer climatology.

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

If it weren’t for the context of global warming it would have been a far more fascinating, interesting event.

Instead it felt like a shotgun blast to an already broken bone, and a sign of an ultimate and permenant shift towards an extremely warmer climatology.

Nahhh... that was just a freak event.    

[Meatyorologist]

2 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Summer has been starting right around this time (late April/early May) more often than not the last decade.

Might get lucky this year and see something different but good chance something like the GFS verifies 

Unfortunately you may be right. I do feel we’ll have a cooler June than average this year. How that carries into the rest of the summer I have no idea.

[Meatyorologist]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Nahhh... that was just a freak event.    

It’s a combination of both. In our current climo it’s a 1-1,000s year event. In the first half of the 20th century it’s a 1-1,000,000s.

While still obscenely rare, the lofty temperatures recorded were made many, many times more likely due to global warming. This is backed by cited research.

“in the heatwave region, [this heat wave which was] as rare as 1 in a 1000 years would have been at least 150 times rarer without human-induced climate change”

https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C48&q=seattle+june+heatwave&btnG=#d=gs_qabs&t=1650670032986&u=%23p%3D7h8_cifvgtMJ

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

It’s a combination of both. In our current climo it’s a 1-1,000s year event. In the first half of the 20th century it’s a 1-1,000,000s.

While still obscenely rare, the lofty temperatures recorded were made many, many times more likely due to global warming. This is backed by cited research.

“in the heatwave region, [this heat wave which was] as rare as 1 in a 1000 years would have been at least 150 times rarer without human-induced climate change”

https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C48&q=seattle+june+heatwave&btnG=#d=gs_qabs&t=1650670032986&u=%23p%3D7h8_cifvgtMJ

Well... we have another 999 years until it should happen again.    I wouldn't worry too much about it.  

[Omegaraptor]

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

It’s a combination of both. In our current climo it’s a 1-1,000s year event. In the first half of the 20th century it’s a 1-1,000,000s.

While still obscenely rare, the lofty temperatures recorded were made many, many times more likely due to global warming. This is backed by cited research.

“in the heatwave region, [this heat wave which was] as rare as 1 in a 1000 years would have been at least 150 times rarer without human-induced climate change”

https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C48&q=seattle+june+heatwave&btnG=#d=gs_qabs&t=1650670032986&u=%23p%3D7h8_cifvgtMJ

July 1936 was just as insane. It just didn’t happen in the PNW.

[Phil]

11 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

It’s a combination of both. In our current climo it’s a 1-1,000s year event. In the first half of the 20th century it’s a 1-1,000,000s.

While still obscenely rare, the lofty temperatures recorded were made many, many times more likely due to global warming. This is backed by cited research.

“in the heatwave region, [this heat wave which was] as rare as 1 in a 1000 years would have been at least 150 times rarer without human-induced climate change”

https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C48&q=seattle+june+heatwave&btnG=#d=gs_qabs&t=1650670032986&u=%23p%3D7h8_cifvgtMJ

I’ll read through it when I get home, but that sounds pretty dubious to me, considering such events almost certainly occurred between 1000-1250AD.

The evolution of the mean state since the middle 20th century fits that of enhanced WPWP in all states, and that EOF was matched at a much higher amplitude during the last megadrought cycle ~ 1000 years ago, based on a wide array of proxies for precipitation/temperature and the NPAC eastern boundary current.

As wide as the ITCZ/HC is today relative to the early/middle 20th century, it was likely 2+ times wider during the megadrought period a millennia ago.

[Phil]

In other words, there’s plenty of time for our modern regime to get worse. Much worse.

Or it could reverse for 30 years then come roaring back. Since the end of the LIA it’s been 2-3 steps forward, then 1 step backwards.

[Meatyorologist]

15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Well... we have another 999 years until it should happen again.    I wouldn't worry too much about it.  

Hopefully not! Even with unregulated global warming we may never see such torrid heat again in this part of the PNW! A very anomalous event indeed.

[Meatyorologist]

8 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’ll read through it when I get home, but that sounds pretty dubious to me, considering such events almost certainly occurred between 1000-1250AD.

The evolution of the mean state since the middle 20th century fits that of enhanced WPWP in all states, and that EOF was matched at a much higher amplitude during the last megadrought cycle ~ 1000 years ago, based on a wide array of proxies for precipitation/temperature and the NPAC eastern boundary current.

As wide as the ITCZ/HC is today relative to the early/middle 20th century, it was likely 2+ times wider during the megadrought period a millennia ago.

The paper wasn't making any claims about when it last occurred, rather it was noting the return interval in today's current climate. I'm assuming the numbers were calculated on a gaussian curve, which is already a bit dubious given that certain patterns are much more likely to produce anomalous results, making the curve not very smooth and Gaussian-like, but truthfully the return intervals calculated seem accurate intuitively and I'll roll with them here.

[Meatyorologist]

14 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

July 1936 was just as insane. It just didn’t happen in the PNW.

What an anomalous year for the north plains. February being the coldest recorded month, followed by the warmest in July. Mother nature was pissed!

[Blizzard777]

1 hour ago, jakeinthevalley said:

I miss Skippers

I as well  

Seems to be a shower tracking towards me currently. Otherwise it’s been a beautiful day!

60* 

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

42 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

What an anomalous year for the north plains. February being the coldest recorded month, followed by the warmest in July. Mother nature was pissed!

Just like last year in the NW!

[Meatyorologist]

4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Just like last year in the NW!

It’s like the record cold and record warmth, except without the record cold!

[RentonHill]

53 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

The paper wasn't making any claims about when it last occurred, rather it was noting the return interval in today's current climate. I'm assuming the numbers were calculated on a gaussian curve, which is already a bit dubious given that certain patterns are much more likely to produce anomalous results, making the curve not very smooth and Gaussian-like, but truthfully the return intervals calculated seem accurate intuitively and I'll roll with them here.

thanks, better phil

[Meatyorologist]

7 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

thanks, better phil

I only learn from the…Phil…

[Meatyorologist]

Current view

[MossMan]

I my new tractor. 
Wish my wood chip mulch could have gotten delivered before Monday so I could also do the paths as I went but oh well. I will just have the kids help me do bucket brigades, I just wanted to get the soil in while the weather was good. 

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

Current view

Crap... looks like another loss!