April 2022 (April 2008/2011 redux)

[TigerWoodsLibido]

50F and mostly sunny. Headed up to PDX for the weekend.

[Phil]

This is a pretty clean MJO transit across the Pacific (speeds up during phase of destructive interference).

Considering it’s mid/late April, you would expect a bout of +PNA (followed by a jet extension) given in-situ conditions, which would favor a warm-up in the West during the initial phase. However, guidance remains inconsistent on the idea of such a progression. We’ll see.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, Phil said:

This is a pretty clean MJO transit across the Pacific (speeds up during phase of destructive interference).

Considering it’s mid/late April, you would expect a bout of +PNA (followed by a jet extension) given in-situ conditions, which would favor a warm-up in the Wedt during the initial phase. However, guidance remains inconsistent on the idea of such a progression. We’ll see.

Gfs looking warmer 

[Meatyorologist]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

You are 0-13 at Mariners games??   That is pretty amazing from a statistical perspective.

It really is!!! 0-15 if you count the Seahawks games I’ve been too.

That 0-13 streak includes a four game sweep at mile high stadium in 2018. That was fun

[Phil]

19 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Gfs looking warmer 

That looks more like a typical spurious GFS solution, though. Over-amped with ULLs diving out of the GOA into Antarctica.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

April frost is not historically uncommon in the willamette valley... 

https://www.oregonlive.com/wine/2022/04/frost-hits-oregon-vineyards-willamette-valley-could-lose-half-its-grape-crop.html

[BLI snowman]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

April frost is not historically uncommon in the willamette valley... 

https://www.oregonlive.com/wine/2022/04/frost-hits-oregon-vineyards-willamette-valley-could-lose-half-its-grape-crop.html

Wineries getting a tough lesson that they don't live in Sonoma.

[RentonHill]

2 Humid 2 Storm

[Cascadia_Wx]

Nice to see the 12z Euro looking much better than the GFS heading into May

[Deweydog]

2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

It really is!!! 0-15 if you count the Seahawks games I’ve been too.

That 0-13 streak includes a four game sweep at mile high stadium in 2018. That was fun

I went from 2003 until June of last year since seeing them win in the flesh. Probably 10 or 12 games.

I read somewhere that it’s been even longer since they made the playoffs.

Edited April 22, 2022 by Deweydog

[BLI snowman]

6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I went from 2003 until June of last year since seeing them win in the flesh. Probably 10 or 12 games.

I read somewhere that it’s been even longer since they made the playoffs.

I think we have several posters now who weren't alive yet when they last did.

[Deweydog]

2 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

Wineries getting a tough lesson that they don't live in Sonoma.

Tough lesson on getting drunk on inevitable Sacramentation of the WV hyperbole.

[Phil]

How’s this for an EPS mean at 360hrs? Orgasmic.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Activity seems to be picking up out there after a sunny start to the day

Mostly cloudy and 55 here currently 

[Deweydog]

42 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I think we have several posters now who weren't alive yet when they last did.

Hard to believe that the last time they were in the postseason, PDX’s all time record high was NINE degrees lower than it is now.

[BLI snowman]

20 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Tough lesson on getting drunk on inevitable Sacramentation of the WV hyperbole.

Prisoner of the moment....

And I prefer Lodification. Gonna be the theme of our meek 93F marine pushes for many a midsummer to come!

 

[TT-SEA]

16 minutes ago, Phil said:

How’s this for an EPS mean at 360hrs? Orgasmic.

Your exaggerated descriptions are humorous to me.  Orgasmic!   You try too hard.   

Overall it looks like a pattern of ULLs floating around.    12Z EPS is drier than normal over the next 2 weeks... and the control run is quite a bit drier than the EPS.

[Cascadia_Wx]

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Your exaggerated descriptions are humorous to me.  Orgasmic!   You try too hard.   

Overall it looks like a pattern of ULLs floating around.    12Z EPS is drier than normal over the next 2 weeks... and the control run is quite a bit drier than the EPS.

 

EPS looks quite troughy and your EPS mean there actually shows average QPF anomalies for a majority of the region, Tim.

But carry on.

[Phil]

[Deweydog]

7 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Prisoner of the moment....

And I prefer Lodification. Gonna be the theme of our meek 93F marine pushes for many a midsummer to come!

 

Birthplace of A&W Root Beer!

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

 

EPS looks quite troughy and your EPS mean there actually shows average QPF anomalies for a majority of the region, Tim.

But carry on.

Drier than normal out here!

Looks pretty quiet and pleasant overall.   

 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

The mean in the long range is likely the blending of ULL positions.

[TT-SEA]

Just had a shower pass through here... but the sun is coming out now.     Beautiful weekend ahead.    

[Anti Marine Layer]

If it's like most years according to my friends who live in Portland, summer won't start until after July 4th.

[Omegaraptor]

1 minute ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

If it's like most years according to my friends who live in Portland, summer won't start until after July 4th.

PDX hasn’t seen significant rainfall on July 4 since 1998

[Phishy Wx]

ULL fights!

 

slow day at the office?

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

If it's like most years according to my friends who live in Portland, summer won't start until after July 4th.

Summer has been starting right around this time (late April/early May) more often than not the last decade.

Might get lucky this year and see something different but good chance something like the GFS verifies 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

ULL fights!

 

slow day at the office?

Even the ECMWF shows a ULL pattern through the end of the run.   Control run is the same.   EPS mean blends the differences.    This is typically a pleasant pattern overall in the mid to late spring.   Some rain... some sun... often on the same day but with some dry days mixed in like this weekend.

[BLI snowman]

16 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Birthplace of A&W Root Beer!

Last A&W in Clark County closed around 2013. Summers began warming almost immediately.

[BLI snowman]

18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Drier than normal out here!

Looks pretty quiet and pleasant overall.   

 

Early May virtually always is pretty quiet and pleasant. Doesn't mean there won't be troughing and rain opportunities.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Last A&W in Clark County closed around 2013. Summers began warming almost immediately.

They still have one in Stayton and Sweet Home. 

[Phil]

18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The mean in the long range is likely the blending of ULL positions.

Until late in run, I agree. IMO, some kind of jet extension would be favored following the W-Hem MJO transit, which might be entering the picture there at the end.

That said, I’d also expect a period of +PNA before that, and guidance isn’t buying it right now. So nothing is set in stone, obviously.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Early May virtually always is pretty quiet and pleasant. Doesn't mean there won't be troughing and rain opportunities.

Ehhh... there have been plenty of times when we have had a more consolidated pattern in early May and it was quite wet up here... 2009, 2010, 2014 and 2017 are examples.    The most persistently dry and ridgy first half of May in the last decade was in 2019... but then we had a consistently wet summer that year.

[Cascadia_Wx]

12z EPS looking pretty decent 

[Phil]

Here are the CPC D+11 analogs.

The Baffin Island ridge signal is strongly associated with -PNA background states during the warm season, though on this map there’s no match to that EOF.

Also interesting that 6 of 10 analogs were from “triple dip” Niña events (1954 twice, 1975 twice, 1999 once, 1976 once). Speaks volumes, IMO.

[BLI snowman]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Ehhh... there have been plenty of times when we have had a more consolidated pattern in early May and it was quite wet up here... 2009, 2010, 2014 and 2017 are examples.    The most persistently dry and ridgy first half of May in the last decade was in 2019... but then we had a consistently wet summer that year.

The vast majority of days by May have sunbreaks and don't feature stratiform precip or strong, consolidated jets. We're entering ULL season. It is what it is. Looks chilly with near average precip going forward.

[TacomaWaWx]

57 here. Doubt we get any more rain today. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 12z GFS operational was a huge outlier in the long range. FWIW!

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

The vast majority of days by May have sunbreaks and don't feature stratiform precip or strong, consolidated jets. We're entering ULL season. It is what it is. Looks chilly with near average precip going forward.

It definitely happens... and did happen in the years that I listed.    And might again according to Phil.    It is what it is.    Looks pretty nice overall though... at least for the next 10-15 days.