SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 28, 2022 Report Share Posted October 28, 2022 On 10/23/2022 at 3:11 PM, Front Ranger said: We've had to lay off two people on my company team so far. The worst is yet ahead. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/home-prices-housing-crash-fall-jeremy-siegel-paul-krugman-bubble-2022-10 Not buying the "good" news from yesterday? Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 28, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 28, 2022 1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Not buying the "good" news from yesterday? What was that? Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 28, 2022 Report Share Posted October 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: What was that? GDP grew unexpectedly by 2.6% Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 29, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 29, 2022 7 hours ago, Iceresistance said: GDP grew unexpectedly by 2.6% Ah, yeah apparently that was mainly due to government spending lot more going into the military. Lots of other signs the economy is rapidly slowing...I still highly doubt the Fed can manage a soft landing here. Gotta remember it takes 6+ months for Fed actions to start rippling through the wider economy. We're not even close to seeing the effects of tightening so far. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 At the very least we’re finally seeing some of the more speculative builders waking up and smelling the coffee… Massive price drops, albeit a bit misleading… https://www.redfin.com/WA/Camas/4367-NW-Water-Lily-Pl-98607/unit-05/home/181148585?utm_source=myredfin&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=recommendations_update&riftinfo=ZXY9ZW1haWwmbD02NjEzMzg1JnA9bGlzdGluZ191cGRhdGVzX3JlY29tbWVuZGF0aW9ucyZhPWNsaWNrJnM9cmVjb21tZW5kYXRpb25zJnQ9YWRkcmVzcyZlbWFpbF9pZD02NjEzMzg1XzE2NjcwNjAyMjZfNiZ1cGRhdGVfdHlwZT0zJmxpbHJfc2NvcmU9MC42OTQ1Jmxpc3RpbmdfaWQ9MTU2MDkxMTE3JnByb3BlcnR5X2lkPTE4MTE0ODU4NSZwb3NpdGlvbl9udW1iZXI9Mw== Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 On 10/28/2022 at 9:49 PM, Front Ranger said: Ah, yeah apparently that was mainly due to government spending lot more going into the military. Lots of other signs the economy is rapidly slowing...I still highly doubt the Fed can manage a soft landing here. Gotta remember it takes 6+ months for Fed actions to start rippling through the wider economy. We're not even close to seeing the effects of tightening so far. Another massive Rate Hike is coming, the Inflation is literally mocking the Feds to raise the interest rates to try to cool it down, only to have the inflation surge again. Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 10, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 10, 2022 Lots of big tech layoffs announced this week. And crypto carnage...a lot of people I know were convinced the bottom was in for BTC, ETH, etc. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 10, 2022 Report Share Posted November 10, 2022 4 hours ago, Front Ranger said: Lots of big tech layoffs announced this week. And crypto carnage...a lot of people I know were convinced the bottom was in for BTC, ETH, etc. Looks like they waited until Election Day to do it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 15, 2022 Report Share Posted November 15, 2022 Amazon is laying off Thousands of its workers. Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted November 18, 2022 Report Share Posted November 18, 2022 On 11/14/2022 at 9:41 PM, Iceresistance said: Amazon is laying off Thousands of its workers. Do you know what percent that is? Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 18, 2022 Report Share Posted November 18, 2022 Just now, Andie said: Do you know what percent that is? Around 2% apparently, but I'm not too sure about it. Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted November 18, 2022 Report Share Posted November 18, 2022 That’s not real concerning but if it continues it could certainly signal a reaction to a recession. Goods are already getting somewhat slow to get if not difficult. Certainly not my first recession and we get them about every 12 years anyway but occasionally we get a big one. Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 The food prices are just awful! A bag of mini peppers is $6! 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 4, 2022 Report Share Posted December 4, 2022 Costco is now down $1.64 a gallon since the secondary peak in early October. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 4, 2022 Report Share Posted December 4, 2022 1 hour ago, Deweydog said: Costco is now down $1.64 a gallon since the secondary peak in early October. Sounds like even the Gas Stations had too much Turkey this year! Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 3, 2023 Report Share Posted January 3, 2023 RV sales has collapsed. Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted January 3, 2023 Report Share Posted January 3, 2023 On 11/27/2022 at 11:50 AM, Iceresistance said: The food prices are just awful! A bag of mini peppers is $6! How’s this affecting your cravings? …Just teasing. No waste in our house. It’s easy to get gob-smacked if you stroll through the meat dept. All that money going into raising and fattening beef! Yikes! Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 3, 2023 Report Share Posted January 3, 2023 48 minutes ago, Andie said: How’s this affecting your cravings? …Just teasing. No waste in our house. It’s easy to get gob-smacked if you stroll through the meat dept. All that money going into raising and fattening beef! Yikes! I really liked them, now I can't get them as it's too expensive! The prices have gone down, but now it's going back up! Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted January 3, 2023 Report Share Posted January 3, 2023 What kind of peppers? Here in Texas it’s pepper heaven! Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 3, 2023 Report Share Posted January 3, 2023 Regular unleaded here has officially fallen exactly $2/gallon from the June/October highs. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted January 4, 2023 Report Share Posted January 4, 2023 11 hours ago, Iceresistance said: RV sales has collapsed. Sounds like the used car market is starting to collapse, with the imminent collapse of Carvana being one of the main drivers. Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 4, 2023 Report Share Posted January 4, 2023 7 hours ago, Andie said: What kind of peppers? Here in Texas it’s pepper heaven! Mini Sweet Peppers Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted January 10, 2023 Report Share Posted January 10, 2023 This is as good a place as any for this. crisis in the cattle and poultry industry. They may have to euthanize millions of chickens and cattle may starve. https://www.wnd.com/2023/01/big-american-farm-raises-alarm-livestock-numbering-millions-soon-starve-death/ Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 18, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 18, 2023 Canada had an even bigger housing bubble going than the US, and is a bit ahead with their crash. They peaked in March 2022 (US peaked in May), and are now down 17% from that peak, and over 7% year over year: https://wolfstreet.com/2023/01/17/the-most-splendid-housing-bubbles-in-canada-january-update-prices-plunged-housing-bust-gets-real/ Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 18, 2023 Report Share Posted January 18, 2023 56 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: Canada had an even bigger housing bubble going than the US, and is a bit ahead with their crash. They peaked in March 2022 (US peaked in May), and are now down 17% from that peak, and over 7% year over year: https://wolfstreet.com/2023/01/17/the-most-splendid-housing-bubbles-in-canada-january-update-prices-plunged-housing-bust-gets-real/ There are no 30-year fixed mortgages here. Typical mortgage term is 5 years and then the balance becomes due, Most people, of course keep getting new mortgages until they pay it all off. The net effect is of an adjustable-rate mortgage. If rates go up, some unlucky homeowners can’t afford the new mortgage and are compelled to sell. This all causes rate increases to exert downward pressure on housing prices faster in Canada. 1 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 18, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 18, 2023 34 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: There are no 30-year fixed mortgages here. Typical mortgage term is 5 years and then the balance becomes due, Most people, of course keep getting new mortgages until they pay it all off. The net effect is of an adjustable-rate mortgage. If rates go up, some unlucky homeowners can’t afford the new mortgage and are compelled to sell. This all causes rate increases to exert downward pressure on housing prices faster in Canada. Yep, that's definitely accelerating the process. Around the world, from the UK, to New Zealand, to Sweden, we're seeing the same phenomenon - with some differences in mortgage terms. But the trends are the same, timing is just different. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 29, 2023 Report Share Posted January 29, 2023 Did Y'all see the latest warning sign that we're going into a monstrous recession? 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted March 5, 2023 Author Report Share Posted March 5, 2023 Seattle metro price per square foot is now down 10% year over year, per Redfin. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted March 9, 2023 Report Share Posted March 9, 2023 https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/stock-market-crash-60-days-best-selling-author-lehman-collapse I suppose it’s anybody’s guess. Place your bets. Perhaps it will slow the flood into Texas and Florida. It’s messing us up. I mean come on New York and California, fix your own house. Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roadtonowhere08 Posted March 10, 2023 Report Share Posted March 10, 2023 Nonsense. It won't. Quote this. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted March 10, 2023 Report Share Posted March 10, 2023 I’m 50/50 on this. It’s not like we’re in a strong place. Employment could be better. All of our numbers could be better. Biden’s been a dud as far as expansion goes. It’s like he’s treading water. That’s not good for the nation. 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted March 10, 2023 Author Report Share Posted March 10, 2023 1 hour ago, roadtonowhere08 said: Nonsense. It won't. Quote this. What won't what? Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted March 10, 2023 Report Share Posted March 10, 2023 Interesting thoughts from respected thinker/writer, Seymour Hersh “-very scary and very dumb.” https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2023/03/seymour-hersh-i-dont-know-whats-going-on-in-that-white-house-but-its-very-scary-and-very-dumb/ 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roadtonowhere08 Posted March 10, 2023 Report Share Posted March 10, 2023 31 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: What won't what? I believe that the market will not crash in the near future. Having said this, people who invest for the long term do not sweat any of this noise. Zoom out on the graph and follow the trend line. 7-8% yearly gains on average compounded over 30 years. It's how non rich people retire nicely. Everything else is just fear mongering to get your money by selling or trading. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted March 10, 2023 Author Report Share Posted March 10, 2023 43 minutes ago, roadtonowhere08 said: I believe that the market will not crash in the near future. Having said this, people who invest for the long term do not sweat any of this noise. Zoom out on the graph and follow the trend line. 7-8% yearly gains on average compounded over 30 years. It's how non rich people retire nicely. Everything else is just fear mongering to get your money by selling or trading. Define crash. The market saw its worst year since the Great Recession in 2022, losing nearly 20% in value. If it drops another 20% this year, would that qualify? No one knows what the future holds, of course, but I don't necessarily think looking back at the past 30 years is the best guide going forward. And then you have the real estate market, which is the main way that average Joes build wealth historically. Every indicator I looked at a year ago said we were in a bubble, and it was rapidly heading for a significant correction. The evidence says that's happening. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roadtonowhere08 Posted March 10, 2023 Report Share Posted March 10, 2023 1 hour ago, Front Ranger said: Define crash. The market saw its worst year since the Great Recession in 2022, losing nearly 20% in value. If it drops another 20% this year, would that qualify? No one knows what the future holds, of course, but I don't necessarily think looking back at the past 30 years is the best guide going forward. And then you have the real estate market, which is the main way that average Joes build wealth historically. Every indicator I looked at a year ago said we were in a bubble, and it was rapidly heading for a significant correction. The evidence says that's happening. I view a crash as something that is sudden based on some black swan event like COVID or the housing crisis based on an industry of debt laden loans and derivatives. 2022 was a correction to COVIDs money printing ending and a plunge back to reality ensued. That is where I see us now. The housing market is definitely in a bubble, but most homes sold recently have been paid either in cash (lots in my area) or loans based on good credit. It is not the same as 2007. Prices will correct now that interest rates have climbed. They were too high due to COVID era bidding wars anyway. Demand has waned and a correction is (I think) in progress in that market. I am by no means an expert, and I think we have a long way to go, but I do not buy the Chicken Little narrative being pushed by some. In the end, time will tell. I could be wrong (and I am fine with that), but I am a long term investor who is not retiring anytime soon. I will stay the course and let over 100 years of market history comfort me if the dookie hits the fan again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted March 10, 2023 Report Share Posted March 10, 2023 6 hours ago, Front Ranger said: …..And then you have the real estate market, which is the main way that average Joes build wealth historically. Every indicator I looked at a year ago said we were in a bubble, and it was rapidly heading for a significant correction. The evidence says that's happening. There has certainly been a bubble in the DFW area with people fleeing Calif. For me it’s immediately west of me. I call the development little Cali. However, construction has slowed. Perhaps rates and cost have finally rule the day. I hope if it becomes a recession it’s short lived. Let’s get it over with. 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted March 11, 2023 Report Share Posted March 11, 2023 On 3/9/2023 at 11:08 PM, Front Ranger said: Define crash. The market saw its worst year since the Great Recession in 2022, losing nearly 20% in value. If it drops another 20% this year, would that qualify? No one knows what the future holds, of course, but I don't necessarily think looking back at the past 30 years is the best guide going forward. And then you have the real estate market, which is the main way that average Joes build wealth historically. Every indicator I looked at a year ago said we were in a bubble, and it was rapidly heading for a significant correction. The evidence says that's happening. Exactly what I was thinking. The last 10+ years have been phenomenal, but we need to look way beyond 30 years! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted March 11, 2023 Report Share Posted March 11, 2023 On 3/9/2023 at 10:18 PM, roadtonowhere08 said: I believe that the market will not crash in the near future. Having said this, people who invest for the long term do not sweat any of this noise. Zoom out on the graph and follow the trend line. 7-8% yearly gains on average compounded over 30 years. It's how non rich people retire nicely. Everything else is just fear mongering to get your money by selling or trading. Not crash but a correction is in the cards. Also more Baby Boomers are retiring. Their businesses shutting down. The work ethic has changed. Society is changing. Where it goes is anyones guess but right now it’s hell finding a good carpenter or plumber around here. Trades are the backbone of this country. If I was a young man I’d become the best at my trade. No shortage of work or income. 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 11, 2023 Report Share Posted March 11, 2023 Silvergate and SVB have completely collapsed, this is the biggest since 2008 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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