Cloud Posted May 9, 2022 Report Share Posted May 9, 2022 Been a while since I looked at some stats and averages. Through the first week of May, it's been quite astounding. Temperatures-wise, we are nowhere near average and we already know about the rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted May 9, 2022 Report Share Posted May 9, 2022 1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Looks like we got down to 36F. Nice night. Was anybody above that? Portland was in the 40s. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted May 9, 2022 Report Share Posted May 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Looks like we got down to 36F. Nice night. Was anybody above that? Nearly everyone lol. Actually KSEA bottomed out lower than my place. 40°F there, 43°F here. Cloudy night! Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted May 9, 2022 Report Share Posted May 9, 2022 1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said: Nearly everyone lol. Actually KSEA bottomed out lower than my place. 40°F there, 43°F here. Cloudy night! I bottomed out at 39 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 9, 2022 Report Share Posted May 9, 2022 1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said: Thermal energy takes time to propagate upwards and out into space. IIRC the Mesosphere is completely dipole to the solstice, peaking in temperature during boreal Winter. Could be wrong on that one though. Avg temperature at 850mb+ peaks around August simply because thermal energy reserves both in the atmosphere and in the hydrosphere peak then. During late June through August, sun angles are decreasing, yet energy is still being added to the system. Sun angles fall behind that equation in Sept and don't look back until early Mar. Isn’t the majority of heat transfer above the troposphere radiative in nature? I can’t imagine it would take that long. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 9, 2022 Report Share Posted May 9, 2022 1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said: Yep. No high desert in the west, no cap over the plains, no severe thunderstorms. It's incredible how interconnected our country's weather is and even more incredible how much of a severe weather machine the plains are. Literally every ingredient comes together on a regular basis due to topography. The high desert for an energy building/storing EML, the warmest body of water on Earth between 20-30°N in the Gulf of Mexico, the highly active Pacific jet at 200mb ejecting and exiting over the plains, right where these prime ingredients meet. Nowhere else on earth do these ingredients come together as frequently and efficiently, and you'd probably be hard pressed to find a similar climate from a palaeoclimatological/palaeometeorological perspective. Agree wholeheartedly with this. It really is something to behold. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted May 9, 2022 Report Share Posted May 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, Phil said: Agree wholeheartedly with this. It really is something to behold. Yep. Possibly the greatest severe thunderstorm generating machine to ever exist on Earth, and it's right in our backyards, so to speak. 3 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 9, 2022 Report Share Posted May 9, 2022 N2/O2 don’t directly absorb IR, but CO^2, N^2O, O^3, etc, do absorb and re-remit IR in the upper atmosphere and collide with/conduct to other molecules. And O2/O3 absorb UV (and higher freqs) and the latter photodissociates. I’d think radiative transfer would be the primary mode of thermal transfer above the tropopause. We see this in the stratosphere as the arctic high reaches peak intensity only 1 week after the summer solstice, **well** before arctic tropospheric temperatures peak in Aug/Sep. If conduction were the primary conduit, the seasonal cycle in polar stratospheric temperatures would be lagged substantially. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted May 9, 2022 Report Share Posted May 9, 2022 7 minutes ago, Phil said: Isn’t the majority of heat transfer above the troposphere radiative in nature? I can’t imagine it would take that long. Some wikipedia digging turned up that I was wrong. It's depth and placement fluctuate seasonally, the lowest being during the summer at the poles, and it's highest being at the equator during boreal winter. Though its temperatures are relatively steady and decrease with height. 2 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted May 9, 2022 Report Share Posted May 9, 2022 Elite skies in CA 2 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 9, 2022 Report Share Posted May 9, 2022 12z EPS. #LaNiña 8 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted May 9, 2022 Report Share Posted May 9, 2022 Just now, Phil said: 12z EPS. #LaNiña That's not terrible though. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted May 9, 2022 Report Share Posted May 9, 2022 Just now, Phil said: Could be 2013-21(?) warm season regime has finally terminated. At the very least it's taken a hiatus this Spring. -ENSO behaving....... normally?! Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 9, 2022 Report Share Posted May 9, 2022 1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said: Average high temperatures to start the month are the lowest since 2002. Completely adjacent to what we've seen in the last decade. Something has fundamentally changed this Spring. Could be the 2013-2021 warm season regime has finally terminated. Long time coming if so. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 9, 2022 Report Share Posted May 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: At the very least it's taken a hiatus this Spring. -ENSO behaving....... normally?! Meant to edit that and accidentally deleted. Yes it appears so! 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 9, 2022 Report Share Posted May 9, 2022 23 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Yep. Possibly the greatest severe thunderstorm generating machine to ever exist on Earth, and it's right in our backyards, so to speak. Seems all of our big time severe outbreaks happen when there’s an EML overhead. 2012 derecho and July 25 2010 are both prime examples. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted May 9, 2022 Report Share Posted May 9, 2022 Just now, Phil said: Seems all of our big time severe outbreaks happen when there’s an EML overhead. 2012 derecho and July 25 2010 are both prime examples. Makes physical sense. On a related note, what is the greatest CAPE value you've ever seen over there across the mound? Here in 2013 we achieved some unrealized 2-3000j/kg values with a very moist (but unfortunately super capped) monsoonal layer. Analogs from the late 90s and late 70s under similar patterns would probably have brought similar values. Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted May 9, 2022 Report Share Posted May 9, 2022 57 here…warmest we’ve been since Wednesday. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted May 9, 2022 Report Share Posted May 9, 2022 Pretty decent looking shower creeping this way from the west…usually those don’t do well here but we will see if it makes it. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted May 9, 2022 Report Share Posted May 9, 2022 Looks like heights finally creep upwards into next week on the euro…not an entirely dry pattern. Looks like we drop below 540 later in the run. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted May 9, 2022 Report Share Posted May 9, 2022 18 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Elite skies in CA That video just got me excited for storm season here! Haven’t had a single thunderstorm yet this year. Our lifting action has been non-existent up until this point. 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 9, 2022 Report Share Posted May 9, 2022 12 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Makes physical sense. On a related note, what is the greatest CAPE value you've ever seen over there across the mound? Here in 2013 we achieved some unrealized 2-3000j/kg values with a very moist (but unfortunately super capped) monsoonal layer. Analogs from the late 90s and late 70s under similar patterns would probably have brought similar values. I’m not sure tbh. We have occasional days with 4000-5000+ but most of them are under death ridges with zero convection to speak of. We can get some insane low level humidity that spikes SBCAPE up real high but it’s often capped with crappy mid level lapse rates. IIRC CAPE was ~ 5500 ahead of the 2012 derecho, which is impressive because it was 11PM at night. Was a monthly record, I think. And one of the highest readings observed at KIAD. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted May 9, 2022 Report Share Posted May 9, 2022 1 minute ago, Kayla said: That video just got me excited for storm season here! Haven’t had a single thunderstorm yet this year. Our lifting action has been non-existent up until this point. sameeeeeeeee 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted May 9, 2022 Report Share Posted May 9, 2022 I don't see anything coming up over the next couple of weeks that looks anything like the past week. Looks fairly climo, though maybe a little on the cool side. Don't see any big warm ups on the horizon either. 4 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted May 9, 2022 Report Share Posted May 9, 2022 1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Looks like we got down to 36F. Nice night. Was anybody above that? You were probably one of the colder spots this morning. We hit 38 but we ended up with clearer conditions overnight which is why that happened. Most places were in the 40s. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted May 9, 2022 Report Share Posted May 9, 2022 12z Euro has mean blocking ridge position sliding right back over AK around the 20th. Models are also trending towards flattening this ridge and bringing warm rains instead of abundant sunshine to both OR and WA, particularly WA. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted May 9, 2022 Report Share Posted May 9, 2022 Not to mention this potent bugger coming in Thursday. It'll only stick around for a day or so, but it's got some bite. 2 2 1 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted May 9, 2022 Report Share Posted May 9, 2022 We had 7.54" of rain in the April 29-May 8th period. I'm not saying its going to be dry, but it is going to be drier than that. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post T-Town Posted May 9, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted May 9, 2022 I went out to get a picture of the rain in the distance and found two bald eagles with the usual contingent of angry harassing crows. 12 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted May 9, 2022 Report Share Posted May 9, 2022 Looking at Silver Falls 10 wettest Mays. 1) 1960 - 10.50" 2) 1977 - 10.09" 3) 1984 - 9.40" 4) 1941 - 8.46" 5) 1991 - 8.45" 6) 1945 - 8.40" 6) 1996 - 8.40" 8 ) 1988 - 8.08" 9) 1953 - 7.97" 10) 1998 - 7.81" Looking ahead to June, there is about a 50% of a wet June based on these years. 1984 was an extremely wet June with 7.84" of rain. On the other hand there were some very dry June's in a couple of these years, notable 1960 (1.27"), and 1945 (0.45"). 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted May 9, 2022 Report Share Posted May 9, 2022 54 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: At the very least it's taken a hiatus this Spring. -ENSO behaving....... normally?! That's the thing too, we've had a reasonable amount of -ENSO recently in 2017, 2018, and 2021. But transitions and sudden ENSO collapses/brief reversals during the warm season always threw a wrench in that coupling very well with the atmospheric circulation. So none of the AMJJA periods resembled what we'd commonly expect (and see as recently as the early 2010s). Nice to know after a decade that another truly entrenched and now deepening Nina can still do its job of overpowering anything else during this stretch of calendar. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 9, 2022 Report Share Posted May 9, 2022 10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Looking at Silver Falls 10 wettest Mays. 1) 1960 - 10.50" 2) 1977 - 10.09" 3) 1984 - 9.40" 4) 1941 - 8.46" 5) 1991 - 8.45" 6) 1945 - 8.40" 6) 1996 - 8.40" 8 ) 1988 - 8.08" 9) 1953 - 7.97" 10) 1998 - 7.81" Looking ahead to June, there is about a 50% of a wet June based on these years. 1984 was an extremely wet June with 7.84" of rain. On the other hand there were some very dry June's in a couple of these years, notable 1960 (1.27"), and 1945 (0.45"). How many years also had a very wet April there.. and then a very wet May? Seems like that would make a dry June more likely. But this year seems to be on its own track. How many times has each month between April-June been very wet? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted May 9, 2022 Report Share Posted May 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: How many years also had a very wet April there.. and then a very wet May? Seems like that would make a dry June more likely. But this year seems to be on its own track. How many times has each month between April-June been very wet? 1984, 1991, and 1988 were above average April, May, June. Six of the top 10 May's followed an above average April. 1977 and 1998 had below average precip in April and June. 1988 was the only year that had a top 10 wet April. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 9, 2022 Report Share Posted May 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: 1984, 1991, and 1988 were above average April, May, June. Six of the top 10 May's followed an above average April. 1977 and 1998 had below average precip in April and June. 1988 was the only year that had a top 10 wet April. 1988 is another interesting case. It was a coherent niña that got an early head start and intensified heading into the warm season. 1st year event, but the holding/intensifying into summer seems to be an important factor for low frequency tendencies in the pattern. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 9, 2022 Report Share Posted May 9, 2022 36 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: We had 7.54" of rain in the April 29-May 8th period. I'm not saying its going to be dry, but it is going to be drier than that. 12z EPS 15 day precipitation anomalies. Looks like the PNW is the national oasis: 4 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted May 9, 2022 Report Share Posted May 9, 2022 1 minute ago, Phil said: 1988 is another interesting case. It was a coherent niña that got an early head start and intensified heading into the warm season. 1st year event, but the holding/intensifying into summer seems to be an important factor for low frequency tendencies in the pattern. This coming winter seems like a true wildcard. I have a feeling it is going to be active, but the 3rd year Nina is so unusual. As @BLI snowmanpointed out recently, starting in February 2019 our climate has become extremely dynamic. We also haven't had a true regional dud winter since 2014-15, seems unlikely, but its on the table. On the other hand we haven't had a true regional arctic outbreak since 2013... Something has to give. 3 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted May 9, 2022 Report Share Posted May 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, Phil said: 12z EPS 15 day precipitation anomalies. Looks like a PNW oasis pattern: Looking good!! Regional cool and wet spring has been very much needed!! 5 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted May 9, 2022 Report Share Posted May 9, 2022 Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said: This coming winter seems like a true wildcard. I have a feeling it is going to be active, but the 3rd year Nina is so unusual. As @BLI snowmanpointed out recently, starting in February 2019 our climate has become extremely dynamic. We also haven't had a true regional dud winter since 2014-15, seems unlikely, but its on the table. On the other hand we haven't had a true regional arctic outbreak since 2013... Something has to give. With a tiny bit of volcanic influence I think it's gonna be incredible. Lots of jet suppression with Arctic boundaries reaching northern California with surface lows also regularly coming in just a bit south of Cape Blanco. 1 1 1 1 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 9, 2022 Report Share Posted May 9, 2022 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: This coming winter seems like a true wildcard. I have a feeling it is going to be active, but the 3rd year Nina is so unusual. As @BLI snowmanpointed out recently, starting in February 2019 our climate has become extremely dynamic. We also haven't had a true regional dud winter since 2014-15, seems unlikely, but its on the table. On the other hand we haven't had a true regional arctic outbreak since 2013... Something has to give. I think the “dud” will happen when the next niño arrives, possibly 2023/24. Or the subsequent year. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 9, 2022 Report Share Posted May 9, 2022 1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: With a tiny bit of volcanic influence I think it's gonna be incredible. Lots of jet suppression with Arctic boundaries reaching northern California with surface lows also regularly coming in just a bit south of Cape Blanco. Descending +QBO will help with the NPAC high position, at least. Hard to bet against cold/active in the West, even this far in advance. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Posted by Tyler Mode,
16 reactions
Go to this post
Posted by SilverFallsAndrew,
7 reactions
Go to this post
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.