smerfylicious Posted May 17, 2022 Report Share Posted May 17, 2022 13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Never been to Bend... we need to do that trip at some point. Maybe in the winter. Bend, Oregon? Heard that's the hidden gem of Oregon for wintertime. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted May 17, 2022 Report Share Posted May 17, 2022 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: A lot of valley locations may end up with small negative departures today. PDX dropped to 54 already, let's see how low they can get by midnight 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted May 17, 2022 Report Share Posted May 17, 2022 8 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said: Significantly more than here up north. I'm at 16.6" on the year which is probably about 1-2" below normal, although we might pick that up by the end of the month. I’m at 27.46” on the year. You can have all of my rainfall for the next month!! 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted May 17, 2022 Report Share Posted May 17, 2022 10 hours ago, James Jones said: I get the desire to counter Tim but I think this spring is more impressive than some are giving it credit for, at least since the second week of April. April was one of the wettest on record for the region, we had an unprecedented snow event even going back to the 1870s (maybe something similar happened before that? Justin would probably know) and it's been persistently below normal with only very brief interludes of warmer than normal. PDX hasn't gotten above 75 yet which I imagine is pretty rare by this point in this spring, though I don't have time to check at the moment. Overall it hasn't been historic aside from the snow event, but I think it's still been pretty impressive. All the way back to the 1870s seems like a bit of an exaggeration. Seems like 1933 and 1936 also had fairly significant accumulating April snow events at least at PDX. The former was followed by one of our worst winters of all time, the latter followed by one of our best winters of all time. Not too surprising given how blocky that era was. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted May 17, 2022 Report Share Posted May 17, 2022 Last year we already had baby plumlings at this point. This year we have nothing. we took the tree out. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted May 17, 2022 Report Share Posted May 17, 2022 25 minutes ago, smerfylicious said: Bend, Oregon? Heard that's the hidden gem of Oregon for wintertime. Wouldn't call it hidden, but a gem, sure it is. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted May 17, 2022 Report Share Posted May 17, 2022 7 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: Wouldn't call it hidden, but a gem, sure it is. That’s a nice old pondo in that bottom pic. Need to dig up my forest service old growth age guide but those are some pretty scales at the bottom. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted May 17, 2022 Report Share Posted May 17, 2022 Bend is a really nice place Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted May 17, 2022 Report Share Posted May 17, 2022 49 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: That’s a nice old pondo in that bottom pic. Need to dig up my forest service old growth age guide but those are some pretty scales at the bottom. That trail has this extremely large pondie. Mom (hugging it) and Dad (continuing onward) for comparison. This was taken on Christmas 2021. Even in the dead of winter this one had some vanilla smell to it. Have not yet seen the “Big Tree” which is the widest known ponderosa pine in La Pine State Park just to the south of this spot. It has a 29’ trunk diameter. The tallest ponderosa pine (and I think tallest known living pine) is 268’ and is in the Siskiyou Mountains of southern Oregon, just west of Grants Pass. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted May 17, 2022 Report Share Posted May 17, 2022 This video was really cool to watch, it had a lot of information about the current pattern and the La Nina and stuff. He shows the ECMWF weeklies, which actually show a cool June for OR and WA. It looks like the plains will have a lot of drought concerns though. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted May 17, 2022 Report Share Posted May 17, 2022 The Wednesday storm that’s hitting northern Vancouver island is a pretty good one. For any month, let alone mid-May Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 17, 2022 Report Share Posted May 17, 2022 1 hour ago, Doiinko said: This video was really cool to watch, it had a lot of information about the current pattern and the La Nina and stuff. He shows the ECMWF weeklies, which actually show a cool June for OR and WA. It looks like the plains will have a lot of drought concerns though. Very well articulated. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smerfylicious Posted May 17, 2022 Report Share Posted May 17, 2022 8 minutes ago, Phil said: Very well articulated. I only watch Frankie for my weather reports. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 17, 2022 Report Share Posted May 17, 2022 Biblical. 5 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 17, 2022 Report Share Posted May 17, 2022 5 hours ago, Phil said: Biblical. The ECMWF shows the same pattern at day 10... but the troughing it so broad that its actually not that bad here. That seems to be the deepest point per the EPS... heights slow rise after that. Its an impressive 500mb pattern for sure... but I am not sure its going to end up being worse here than during any of the other craziness we have seen this month. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted May 17, 2022 Report Share Posted May 17, 2022 The EPS looks fairly wet on the ensemble chart at least. Wetter than the GEFS. Both are generally below average through the entirety of their runs. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 17, 2022 Report Share Posted May 17, 2022 7 hours ago, Doiinko said: This video was really cool to watch, it had a lot of information about the current pattern and the La Nina and stuff. He shows the ECMWF weeklies, which actually show a cool June for OR and WA. It looks like the plains will have a lot of drought concerns though. Thanks for sharing... I really enjoyed this video and I am going to bookmark it so I can watch all of his updates now. Its so informative and factual without any hype. He did mention that he expects the blocking high to develop over the plains in June and slowly shift westward through the summer... supporting the idea of a backloaded summer in the PNW. He also focuses on the entire country... which is pretty interesting. The pattern this spring has been really bad for a large part of the country because the Nina pattern is focusing all of the precip up north. Seems like everyone should be cheering for a Nino now. He actually said this Nina pattern has "led to this mess" when showing the map below. 4 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted May 17, 2022 Report Share Posted May 17, 2022 34 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Thanks for sharing... I really enjoyed this video and I am going to bookmark it so I can watch all of his updates now. Its so informative and factual without any hype. He did mention that he expects the blocking high to develop over the plains in June and slowly shift westward through the summer... supporting the idea of a backloaded summer in the PNW. He also focuses on the entire country... which is pretty interesting. The pattern this spring has been really bad for a large part of the country because the Nina pattern is focusing all of the precip up north. Seems like everyone should be cheering for a Nino now. He actually said this Nina pattern has "led to this mess" when showing the map below. Yeah, his videos are really well done. Even though an El Nino probably won't be as good up here, I'd rather have it because of all the drought around the country. A third year Nina would probably just make it worse. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 17, 2022 Report Share Posted May 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, Doiinko said: Yeah, his videos are really well done. Even though an El Nino probably won't be as good up here, I'd rather have it because of all the drought around the country. A third year Nina would probably just make it worse. A 3rd year Nina is already a forgone conclusion... but a Nino would be very welcomed next year for those in the SW and plains. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted May 17, 2022 Report Share Posted May 17, 2022 Low of 42 this morning and filtered sunshine. Ended up with a midnight low of 46 yesterday. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted May 17, 2022 Report Share Posted May 17, 2022 Looks like after that storm Wednesday there could be a few days with little to no rain on the euro. 7-10 day period is wet again though. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted May 17, 2022 Report Share Posted May 17, 2022 Wednesday’s system is a bit stronger but also a nudge farther north at the tip of Vancouver Is. Still quite stormy down here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted May 17, 2022 Report Share Posted May 17, 2022 We only need 0.19" to jump from 8th wettest May to 4th. Should do that Wednesday/Thursday. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted May 17, 2022 Report Share Posted May 17, 2022 EURO gives us 1.90" through hour 240. GFS under 1". Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted May 17, 2022 Report Share Posted May 17, 2022 Looks like EUG hit 39 on a 5min observation. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 17, 2022 Report Share Posted May 17, 2022 A rare sunny morning here... also have not received any precip so this might end up being the second totally dry day of the month. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smerfylicious Posted May 17, 2022 Report Share Posted May 17, 2022 Clouds are resting on the mountains this morning. Guess their alarm didn't go off. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted May 17, 2022 Report Share Posted May 17, 2022 1 hour ago, Doiinko said: Yeah, his videos are really well done. Even though an El Nino probably won't be as good up here, I'd rather have it because of all the drought around the country. A third year Nina would probably just make it worse. The La Niña helped with the drought here, though. It seems like both ENSO states are good for some parts of the country and bad for others in terms of drought. And there is even lots of variability between individual events. California had one of its worst drought years on record with the super Niño in 2015-16. Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted May 17, 2022 Report Share Posted May 17, 2022 Very sunny and pretty morning here. Up to 50 currently after a low of 45. 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted May 17, 2022 Report Share Posted May 17, 2022 8 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: The La Niña helped with the drought here, though. It seems like both ENSO states are good for some parts of the country and bad for others in terms of drought. And there is even lots of variability between individual events. California had one of its worst drought years on record with the super Niño in 2015-16. Was it the winter of 2016-17 that mostly eliminated the drought there? That was a weak Niña or cold neutral I think. A repeat of that would be nice 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted May 17, 2022 Report Share Posted May 17, 2022 00z EPS. Looks like there is a decent signal developing for our next rainy period (after tomorrow) being around the last week of the month. 1 2 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 17, 2022 Report Share Posted May 17, 2022 4 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted May 17, 2022 Report Share Posted May 17, 2022 1 minute ago, Doiinko said: Was it the winter of 2016-17 that mostly eliminated the drought there? That was a weak Niña or cold neutral I think. A repeat of that would be nice I think it qualified as a weak La Niña. And yeah it was definitely a drought buster for CA thanks largely to the very suppressed polar jet (the same tendency that gave us such a consistently chilly winter up here). 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted May 17, 2022 Report Share Posted May 17, 2022 6 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: 00z EPS. Looks like there is a decent signal developing for our next rainy period (after tomorrow) being around the last week of the month. EPS is ROCK solid. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 17, 2022 Report Share Posted May 17, 2022 GFS is still showing a warm weekend... might be waiting until the last minute to do the rug pull on us this time. Also see that its warming up in Alaska too. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted May 17, 2022 Report Share Posted May 17, 2022 GFS continues to show pathetic precip amounts this week. Should tamp down on the whining for a few hours. 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted May 17, 2022 Report Share Posted May 17, 2022 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: GFS is still showing a warm weekend... might be waiting until the last minute to do the rug pull on us this time. Also see that its warming up in Alaska too. Average high is 70 here now. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted May 17, 2022 Report Share Posted May 17, 2022 According to Dave Ross’s highly detailed forecast this morning on Kiro radio we are only expecting sprinkles tomorrow morning and then dry and warm through the weekend!! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted May 17, 2022 Report Share Posted May 17, 2022 8 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: I think it qualified as a weak La Niña. And yeah it was definitely a drought buster for CA thanks largely to the very suppressed polar jet (the same tendency that gave us such a consistently chilly winter up here). Basically everyone in the I5 corridor had a snowstorm I think, some did better than others though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 17, 2022 Report Share Posted May 17, 2022 8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Average high is 70 here now. Anything above 60 feels like a heat wave up here. The bar is so low right now. A perfectly normal spring will seem ridiculously warm... hope we can pull that off next year. 1 4 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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