June 2022 - Summer Begins

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Looking increasingly favorable for the first thunderstorm outbreak of the season in the Puget Sound area tomorrow into tomorrow night!  I’ll post more in a bit.

I noticed the ECMWF was showing some kind of blow up right over the Seattle area tomorrow night.

[Doinko]

6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Looking increasingly favorable for the first thunderstorm outbreak of the season in the Puget Sound area tomorrow into tomorrow night!  I’ll post more in a bit.

Anything for the Willamette valley/Portland area?

[Meatyorologist]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I noticed the ECMWF was showing some kind of blow up right over the Seattle area tomorrow night.

Yep, all CAM's (Convective Allowing Model) and CEM's (Convective Emulating Model) showing something tomorrow night

[SilverFallsAndrew]

11 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Anything for the Willamette valley/Portland area?

It seems to be focused more north. 

[Phil]

41 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

And nature is adapting right now as dry east-side forests burn and will in many cases be replaced by scrub that is more compatible with the new hotter, drier summers. Nature will adapt (though many individual species won’t). It’s unlikely our civilization (which arose during a period of relative climate stability) will.

Yeah the elephant in the room is the clock ticking on the Holocene interglacial. Humanity’s perspective has always been myopic due to our short lifetimes, but we will inevitably experience a dramatic decline in the human population either before or during glacial inception. Could be we screw up and off ourselves before then, but if not, we have thousands of years of advanced warning.

The present concern over climate change is also legitimate, but that’s more like pothole in the road, a few meters ahead of a giant ditch with a “do not cross” sign in front of it. Unfortunately our understanding of this process is analogous to Ptolemy’s understanding of the solar system.

[Meatyorologist]

13 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Anything for the Willamette valley/Portland area?

Andrew is right. While midlevel instability will be comparable, lift will be focused over WA. Still can't rule out a stray pop up thunderstorm in your area. Will definitely be quite a good altocumulus field around sundown.

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Yeah the elephant in the room is the clock ticking on the Holocene interglacial. Humanity’s perspective has always been myopic due to our short lifetimes, but we will inevitably experience a dramatic decline in the human population either before or during glacial inception.

Hopefully it’s far enough out that we’ll have time to develop the technology necessary to adapt. The present concern over climate change is also legitimate, but that’s more like pothole in the road, a few meters ahead of a giant ditch with a “do not cross” sign in front of it.

For graphical accuracy, replace the pothole with a speed bump.

[snow drift]

6 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Starting the first day of meteorological summer with a mild low of 55. A variable June would be nice, with some sun, rain, thunderstorms, marine layers and maybe even some seasonable heat on a day or two.

Most people would be happy with that. Sounds seasonable.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF shows what looks like a significant stratiform rain event on Saturday night and Sunday... but the details look pretty decent on Sunday with plenty of sunshine in between the showers and temps probably in the mid to upper 60s.   As I mentioned last night... far better than last Sunday. 

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

For graphical accuracy, replace the pothole with a speed bump.

Touché.

[Meatyorologist]

LAWL

[snow drift]

3 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

And the streak may well continue for a while, but that will just be YVR being YVR. It’s heavily affected by sea breezes and not representative in the least when it comes to our warm-season maxima. Pretty much the entire Greater Vancouver region except for immediate coastal areas should easily surpass the 20°C mark today.

 

I feel your pain, buddy.

[Deweydog]

9 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yeah the elephant in the room is the clock ticking on the Holocene interglacial. Humanity’s perspective has always been myopic due to our short lifetimes, but we will inevitably experience a dramatic decline in the human population either before or during glacial inception. Could be we screw up and off ourselves before then, but if not, we have thousands of years of advanced warning.

The present concern over climate change is also legitimate, but that’s more like pothole in the road, a few meters ahead of a giant ditch with a “do not cross” sign in front of it. Unfortunately our understanding of this process is analogous to Ptolemy’s understanding of the solar system.

So is it gonna snow next winter not

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I don't see any June 2008 style troughs on the horizon. 

[snow drift]

34 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

PRISM Rankings here...

2022:

April: 5th coldest 7th wettest

May: 11th coldest 3rd wettest

2011: 

April: 2nd coldest 17th wettest

May: Coldest 35th wettest

April 2022 was the 7th coldest on record at KGEG and May 2022 was the 9th coldest on record. April 2011 was the 2nd coldest on record. May 2011 was the 19th coldest on record.

[TacomaWaWx]

38 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Looking increasingly favorable for the first thunderstorm outbreak of the season in the Puget Sound area tomorrow into tomorrow night!  I’ll post more in a bit.

You’re banned for 24 hours if it doesn’t happen 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

16 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yeah the elephant in the room is the clock ticking on the Holocene interglacial. Humanity’s perspective has always been myopic due to our short lifetimes, but we will inevitably experience a dramatic decline in the human population either before or during glacial inception. Could be we screw up and off ourselves before then, but if not, we have thousands of years of advanced warning.

The present concern over climate change is also legitimate, but that’s more like pothole in the road, a few meters ahead of a giant ditch with a “do not cross” sign in front of it. Unfortunately our understanding of this process is analogous to Ptolemy’s understanding of the solar system.

Sure, but those few meters are a few thousand years at least. Choosing to create a crisis in the very near future just because one would happen in some thousands of years anyhow is stucking fupid.

[snow drift]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I don't see any June 2008 style troughs on the horizon. 

I remember that one. It snowed that year in June.

[TacomaWaWx]

Euro continues to impress me with these wet runs. Meanwhile despite the clouds it’s pretty nice out…67 degrees. 

[Phil]

15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I don't see any June 2008 style troughs on the horizon. 

12z Euro is going places, though. Verbatim this could be rushed, but I’m feeling some top notch troughing/-PNA later in June. MJO/AAM looks good. 

[snow drift]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

#ThankYouTonga

 

I would thank La Niña. It's ye olde La Niña spring. I expected something similar last year, but it never happened.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, snow drift said:

I would thank La Niña. It's ye olde La Niña spring. I expected something similar last year, but it never happened.

Definitely La Niña as well. Though Tonga actually might be the reason the El Niña transition failed and the Niña restrengthened last minute. Any research is preliminary but the timing fits the eruption perfectly.

[Kayla]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

12z Euro is going places, though. Verbatim this could be rushed, but I’m feeling some top notch troughing/-PNA later in June. MJO/AAM looks good. 

I swear, if it snows in mid June…

[snow drift]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

12z Euro is going places, though. I’m feeling some top notch troughing/-PNA for the second half of June. MJO/AAM look good. 

I don't consider June to be a summer month. It's more of an extension of spring. In most years, we're still trying to shake off the jet stream hangover from our wet season. September is drier, just about as warm, and far less stormy. September is our 3rd summer month behind July and August.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, snow drift said:

I don't consider June to be a summer month. It's more of an extension of spring. In most years, we're still trying to shake off the jet stream hangover from our wet season. September is drier, just about as warm, and far less stormy. September is our 3rd summer month behind July and August.

Same here. Front Ranger will be with you in a moment though...

[snow drift]

5 minutes ago, Kayla said:

I swear, if it snows in mid June…

Maybe August snow this year, a la 1992?

[Kayla]

3 minutes ago, snow drift said:

Maybe August snow this year, a la 1992?

If we see June snow AND August snow I might lose it.

I’d love to see a cool and variable summer again though!

[FroYoBro]

PDX at 70 degrees for the 1pm reading.

[Phil]

34 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Sure, but those few meters are a few thousand years at least. Choosing to create a crisis in the very near future just because one would happen in some thousands of years anyhow is stucking fupid.

I agree, of course. We should do what we can to avoid a near term crisis, and use the experience to develop a game plan for the next one. We have several millennia to prepare, no excuse for failure.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

PDX at 70 degrees for the 1pm reading.

CAN THEY DO IT? I believe it's 72 at SLE, it could happen today...

[Deweydog]

7 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

PDX at 70 degrees for the 1pm reading.

Now tied with several years for the earliest 70 degree June max on record.

[Phil]

39 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Euro continues to impress me with these wet runs. Meanwhile despite the clouds it’s pretty nice out…67 degrees. 

12z EPS predicts happy trees.

[TT-SEA]

73 in North Bend now... despite the high clouds.

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

12z EPS predicts happy trees.

 

[snow drift]

22 minutes ago, Kayla said:

If we see June snow AND August snow I might lose it.

I’d love to see a cool and variable summer again though!

I could handle Billings, but Bozeman or Butte would be a tall order. Elevation is a killer. I was over there in June 1992 at the Little Bighorn. It was not warm. I wore shorts anyway. I was in Butte in July 1993. We were scraping our windshield. I would honestly consider moving over to Billings though. I like it over there.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

12z EPS predicts happy trees.

Yes... the trees in western WA and SW BC definitely need much more rain to survive where the wettest anomalies are shown.   They have been suffering immensely since September being inundated with rain.    It so important to get more rain.   Water being dumped on a sopping wet sponge.   

[Cloud]

[snow drift]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yes... the trees in western WA and SW BC definitely need much more rain to survive where the wettest anomalies are shown.   They have been suffering immensely since September being inundated with rain.    It so important to get more rain.   Water being dumped on a sopping wet sponge.   

It's one extreme to the other. Spring 2021 was inordinately sunny and dry. This year we get to experience the polar opposite. Honestly, we could use the rain over here. January-March was rather dry. I think areas west of the Cascades have had enough though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

11 minutes ago, Phil said:

12z EPS predicts happy trees.

I see this and just feel blessed.

[Cloud]

2 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I think the only thing that was missing was some big time thunderstorms…maybe we can manage some here in June. 

My wife is currently in Viet Nam visiting family and called me at 3am (here) Monday morning because the skies were "not happy" and she was also scared. I could hear the pouring rain and lightning every few seconds  Then of course she proceeded to not let me sleep at all because she knows I'm a weather geek. 

I would love to experience that.