June 2022 - Summer Begins

[TT-SEA]

New thread... keeping the title preference free this time.    

[TT-SEA]

Side note... I hope this June ends up wetter than normal.    That would be a better signal for July-September.   And there is no real conceivable way this June ends up warmer or drier than normal.   I just hope we have some more dry days mixed in.  

[Deweydog]

This summer has been very dark thus far.

[Deweydog]

And let it be known that I, Jesse, issued the FIRST weenie tag of summer 2022.

Thank me for my service.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

This summer has been very dark thus far.

It almost has to get brighter.   I am going to sleep on it and see what it looks like when I wake up.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

And let it be known that I, Jesse, issued the FIRST weenie tag of summer 2022.

Thank me for my service.

Well deserved weenie tag for me.  My inner weenie comes out in force in the summer.   Not so much in the winter.

[Phil]

First EPS run of meteorological summer looks more like an early winter jet extension.

[snow drift]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Side note... I hope this June ends up wetter than normal.    That would be a better signal for July-September.   And there is no real conceivable way this June ends up warmer or drier than normal.   I just hope we have some more dry days mixed in.  

When an April-June period is cooler than average, July and August are usually pretty nice. September can go either way. I like our chances in July and August. Most of the coldest Julys were preceded by a warmer May, which we avoided this year, but it was real close.

[snow drift]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

First EPS run of meteorological summer looks more like an early winter jet extension.

No big deal. Better now rather than later.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, snow drift said:

When an April-June period is cooler than average, July and August are usually pretty nice. September can go either way. I like our chances in July and August. Most of the coldest Julys were preceded by a warmer May, which we easily avoided.

Absent a West-Pacific MJO, I highly doubt July will end up warmer than average in the NW.

In fact dateline trades re-surge during the second week of June, reflecting a re-tightening of the Walker Cell as the MJO completes its W-Hem transit. The second half of June seems increasingly likely to feature -PNA as the dominant EOF.

[Omegaraptor]

25 minutes ago, Phil said:

First EPS run of meteorological summer looks more like an early winter jet extension.

Into the oven CA goes. The heat just abruptly stops at the border, lol.

Let's hope they can avoid a repeat of 2020 or 2021's fire season.

[snow drift]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

Absent a West-Pacific MJO, I highly doubt July will end up warmer than average in the NW.

In fact dateline trades re-surge during the second week of June, reflecting a re-tightening of the Walker Cell as the MJO completes its W-Hem transit. The second half of June seems increasingly likely to feature -PNA as the dominant EOF.

It will be around average. 1984, 1991, 1996, 1999, and 2011 all come to mind. And there are others, too. I don't think it will be warmer than average. An average July is just fine.

[Phil]

Just now, snow drift said:

It will be around average. 1984, 1991, 1996, 1999, and 2011 all come to mind. And there are others, too. I don't think it will be warmer than average.

“Around average” leaves a lot of wiggle room.

We should do another summer forecast contest. Tim and I did one back in 2016 after we wasted hundreds of pages bickering.

Hilariously we both came in near the bottom of the pack.  

[snow drift]

28 minutes ago, Phil said:

“Around average” leaves a lot of wiggle room.

We should do another summer forecast contest. Tim and I did one back in 2016 after we wasted hundreds of pages bickering.

Hilariously we both came in near the bottom of the pack.  

A degree or two is what I'm thinking. Colder overnight lows can lead to that. I don't see it being like 1981, 1983, 1986, or 1993. Those were top tier cool Julys. La Niña conditions were not present during those Julys. I do think that August will be the warmer of the two months. September could go either way. Early fall or summer continuing are both possible outcomes.

[Meatyorologist]

Couldn’t quite get to 100 pages on the May thread…

[Reg]

Dry season is in full effect once again down here in Southern California. May 2022 had no measurable rainfall for most locations down here.

[The Blob]

Let's keep the rain going for this month! And I hope we hit our first 80 today. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Couldn’t quite get to 100 pages on the May thread…

Another inch of rain would have done it 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Starting the first day of meteorological summer with a mild low of 55. A variable June would be nice, with some sun, rain, thunderstorms, marine layers and maybe even some seasonable heat on a day or two.

[TacomaWaWx]

14 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Starting the first day of meteorological summer with a mild low of 55. A variable June would be nice, with some sun, rain, thunderstorms, marine layers and maybe even some seasonable heat on a day or two.

I’m worried…we’re 6 hours into summer and it hasn’t rained yet! 

[TacomaWaWx]

Low of 51 to start June and cloudy. Took awhile to cool off yesterday was still 58 at midnight. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Low of 51 to start June and cloudy. Took awhile to cool off yesterday was still 58 at midnight. 

Last night was probably the mildest after dinner walk we have taken this year so far. Temps were still in the mid-60s after sunset.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Cloudy this morning with a balmy low of 50. Looks like western Oregon was 2-3F below average in May, so not quite as chilly as western Washington, but still solidly below average and the coldest May in some years. I’ll calculate our stats later, but I do know our lows were a bit above average in May due to the cloud cover, highs averaged about 57, which is a -7 departure. Salem still managed 9 70+ days including a stretch of 6 in a row at one point. We ended up with 3 days above 70 to go with our 11.46” of rain. Also had a 43/33 day mixed in there. 

[TT-SEA]

5 hours ago, Phil said:

“Around average” leaves a lot of wiggle room.

We should do another summer forecast contest. Tim and I did one back in 2016 after we wasted hundreds of pages bickering.

Hilariously we both came in near the bottom of the pack.  

LOL.

At least 25 pages was about the definition of a trough!  

[The Swamp]

This looks much better.

[Anti Marine Layer]

6 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

New thread... keeping the title preference free this time.    

We go from winter to summer without a spring in between. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

30 minutes ago, The Swamp said:

This looks much better.

EPS is rock solid. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This has been a great spring. Definitely the best in a decade at least. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Asking for a friend: Where is the best place in the eastern gorge to score a clear night for my Druid pagan ceremony on the summer solstice? 

[TT-SEA]

18 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This has been a great spring. Definitely the best in a decade at least. 

If your thing is persistent rain and almost every day being colder than normal... this was probably the best spring in your lifetime.    And maybe ever.   If you are referencing 2011 with "best in a decade" comment... we had 30 totally dry days in April/May 2011 and a whopping 7 dry days in 2022.   2011 had the cold but was much more reasonable in terms of rain.   An extra 23 dry days makes me nostalgic about 2011.    30 dry days in that period is actually a little better than climo which is 28 in April/May.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

If your thing is persistent rain and almost every day being colder than normal... this was probably the best spring in your lifetime.    And maybe ever.   If you are referencing 2011 with "best in a decade" comment... we had 30 totally dry days in April/May 2011 and a whopping 7 dry days in 2022.   2011 had the cold but was much more reasonable in terms of rain.   An extra 23 dry days makes me nostalgic about 2011.    30 dry days in that period is actually a little better than climo which is 28 in April/May.   

We had 17 dry days in April and May. Idk how that compares to 2011. This year was wetter here, but not as cold. Though April and May were still very chilly. We needed a wet spring and we got it. We had more rain than you but more dry days, Silver Falls is described as a temperate rainforest. That means it rains a lot, some years more than others. The temperate rainforest loves this. Maybe you should go back to California where you would have to find something else to complain about?

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We had 17 dry days in April and May. Idk how that compares to 2011. This year was wetter here, but not as cold. Though April and May were still very chilly. We needed a wet spring and we got it. We had more rain than you but more dry days, Silver Falls is described as a temperate rainforest. That means it rains a lot, some years more than others. The temperate rainforest loves this. Maybe you should go back to California where you would have to find something else to complain about?

Climo is climo... it normally rains on 32 or 33 days in April/May here and this year it was 54.    It doesn't need to rain almost every day with 200-300% of normal rainfall to maintain our forest.   

[Phil]

You know it’s gonna be a hot day when it’s 90°F at 930AM.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Phil said:

You know it’s gonna be a hot day when it’s 90°F at 930AM.

Not "gonna be" a hot day... it already is.     Hard pass on that.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

34 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Climo is climo... it normally rains on 32 or 33 days in April/May here and this year it was 54.    It doesn't need to rain almost every day with 200-300% of normal rainfall to maintain our forest.   
 

 Cry more 

Edited June 1, 2022 by SilverFallsAndrew

[SilverFallsAndrew]

20 minutes ago, Phil said:

You know it’s gonna be a hot day when it’s 90°F at 930AM.

I’m sorry Phil. Maybe you and cry baby can trade?

[TT-SEA]

16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I just owned you. Cry more 

Your argument is silly and used way too often by a few people on here... basically that its a wet climate so climo does not really matter and its normally raining all the time.   But climo is always mentioned by the same people when its warmer or drier than normal.

Comparing the climo for this area to the actual weather in this area is always a fair discussion.    That is the only way to fairly gauge the weather.   

You say it rains a lot... and I agree.   Climo says that it true.   But the last two months were a huge departure from climo here in terms of persistent rain, total rain, and temperature.    Its just statistics.   You can't change it with your silly argument.   

[Skagit Weather]

For those of you wondering, KSEA didn't quite end up with the record fewest days above 60F for the spring coming in 3rd place with 21.

After a quick start at the beginning of the month, it also only ended up 7th with most days of highs under 55F for the month of May.

[TacomaWaWx]

Good lord lol

[AlTahoe]

7 hours ago, Omegaraptor said:

Into the oven CA goes. The heat just abruptly stops at the border, lol.

Let's hope they can avoid a repeat of 2020 or 2021's fire season.

After the driest Jan - May in California history the fire season will be epic again unfortunately.