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June 2022 - Summer Begins


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New thread... keeping the title preference free this time.    👍

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Side note... I hope this June ends up wetter than normal.    That would be a better signal for July-September.   And there is no real conceivable way this June ends up warmer or drier than normal.   I just hope we have some more dry days mixed in.  

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

This summer has been very dark thus far.

It almost has to get brighter.   I am going to sleep on it and see what it looks like when I wake up.

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4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

And let it be known that I, Jesse, issued the FIRST weenie tag of summer 2022.

Thank me for my service.

Well deserved weenie tag for me.  My inner weenie comes out in force in the summer.   Not so much in the winter.

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Side note... I hope this June ends up wetter than normal.    That would be a better signal for July-September.   And there is no real conceivable way this June ends up warmer or drier than normal.   I just hope we have some more dry days mixed in.  

When an April-June period is cooler than average, July and August are usually pretty nice. September can go either way. I like our chances in July and August. Most of the coldest Julys were preceded by a warmer May, which we avoided this year, but it was real close.🤣😂

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1 minute ago, snow drift said:

When an April-June period is cooler than average, July and August are usually pretty nice. September can go either way. I like our chances in July and August. Most of the coldest Julys were preceded by a warmer May, which we easily avoided.

Absent a West-Pacific MJO, I highly doubt July will end up warmer than average in the NW.

In fact dateline trades re-surge during the second week of June, reflecting a re-tightening of the Walker Cell as the MJO completes its W-Hem transit. The second half of June seems increasingly likely to feature -PNA as the dominant EOF.

FD638973-1AF8-40D4-A71F-A83BB2D51483.png

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25 minutes ago, Phil said:

First EPS run of meteorological summer looks more like an early winter jet extension. 😱

0DFA323D-F168-4638-B1D3-B584F5CAAABD.png2BD2306D-7392-4891-8EF6-D646DE6C6045.png

Into the oven CA goes. The heat just abruptly stops at the border, lol.

Let's hope they can avoid a repeat of 2020 or 2021's fire season.

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6 minutes ago, Phil said:

Absent a West-Pacific MJO, I highly doubt July will end up warmer than average in the NW.

In fact dateline trades re-surge during the second week of June, reflecting a re-tightening of the Walker Cell as the MJO completes its W-Hem transit. The second half of June seems increasingly likely to feature -PNA as the dominant EOF.

FD638973-1AF8-40D4-A71F-A83BB2D51483.png

It will be around average. 1984, 1991, 1996, 1999, and 2011 all come to mind. And there are others, too. I don't think it will be warmer than average. An average July is just fine.👍

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Just now, snow drift said:

It will be around average. 1984, 1991, 1996, 1999, and 2011 all come to mind. And there are others, too. I don't think it will be warmer than average.

“Around average” leaves a lot of wiggle room.

We should do another summer forecast contest. Tim and I did one back in 2016 after we wasted hundreds of pages bickering.

Hilariously we both came in near the bottom of the pack. :lol: 

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28 minutes ago, Phil said:

“Around average” leaves a lot of wiggle room.

We should do another summer forecast contest. Tim and I did one back in 2016 after we wasted hundreds of pages bickering.

Hilariously we both came in near the bottom of the pack. :lol: 

A degree or two is what I'm thinking. Colder overnight lows can lead to that. I don't see it being like 1981, 1983, 1986, or 1993. Those were top tier cool Julys. La Niña conditions were not present during those Julys. I do think that August will be the warmer of the two months. September could go either way. Early fall or summer continuing are both possible outcomes.

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Couldn’t quite get to 100 pages on the May thread…

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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Dry season is in full effect once again down here in Southern California. May 2022 had no measurable rainfall for most locations down here.

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My personal weather station: Davis Instruments Vantage Pro 2

2022-2023 Season Total: 0.00" (as of (7/1/22)

2021-2022 Season Total: 8.05"

2020-2021 Season Total: 5.40"

2019-2020 Season Total: 15.82"

2018-2019 Season Total: 15.84"

2017-2018 Season Total: 4.63"

2016-2017 Season Total: 15.18"

2015-2016 Season Total: 8.12"

2014-2015 Season Total: 10.09"

2013-2014 Season Total: 7.35"

2012-2013 Season Total: 7.11"

2011-2012 Season Total: 7.02"

2010-2011 Season Total: 17.09"

2009-2010 Season Total: 11.59"

Average Seasonal Precipitation: 10.25" (13 years)

California Water Year/Rainy Season measuring period runs from July 1 to June 30.
 

 

 

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  • Longtimer

Starting the first day of meteorological summer with a mild low of 55. A variable June would be nice, with some sun, rain, thunderstorms, marine layers and maybe even some seasonable heat on a day or two.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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14 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Starting the first day of meteorological summer with a mild low of 55. A variable June would be nice, with some sun, rain, thunderstorms, marine layers and maybe even some seasonable heat on a day or two.

I’m worried…we’re 6 hours into summer and it hasn’t rained yet! 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Low of 51 to start June and cloudy. Took awhile to cool off yesterday was still 58 at midnight. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Low of 51 to start June and cloudy. Took awhile to cool off yesterday was still 58 at midnight. 

Last night was probably the mildest after dinner walk we have taken this year so far. Temps were still in the mid-60s after sunset.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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  • Longtimer

Cloudy this morning with a balmy low of 50. Looks like western Oregon was 2-3F below average in May, so not quite as chilly as western Washington, but still solidly below average and the coldest May in some years. I’ll calculate our stats later, but I do know our lows were a bit above average in May due to the cloud cover, highs averaged about 57, which is a -7 departure. Salem still managed 9 70+ days including a stretch of 6 in a row at one point. We ended up with 3 days above 70 to go with our 11.46” of rain. Also had a 43/33 day mixed in there. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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5 hours ago, Phil said:

“Around average” leaves a lot of wiggle room.

We should do another summer forecast contest. Tim and I did one back in 2016 after we wasted hundreds of pages bickering.

Hilariously we both came in near the bottom of the pack. :lol: 

LOL.

At least 25 pages was about the definition of a trough!  

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  • Longtimer
30 minutes ago, The Swamp said:

This looks much better.

Screen Shot 2022-06-01 at 6.46.31 AM.png

EPS is rock solid. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

This has been a great spring. Definitely the best in a decade at least. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

Asking for a friend: Where is the best place in the eastern gorge to score a clear night for my Druid pagan ceremony on the summer solstice? 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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18 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This has been a great spring. Definitely the best in a decade at least. 

If your thing is persistent rain and almost every day being colder than normal... this was probably the best spring in your lifetime.    And maybe ever.   If you are referencing 2011 with "best in a decade" comment... we had 30 totally dry days in April/May 2011 and a whopping 7 dry days in 2022.   2011 had the cold but was much more reasonable in terms of rain.   An extra 23 dry days makes me nostalgic about 2011.    30 dry days in that period is actually a little better than climo which is 28 in April/May.  👍 

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13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

If your thing is persistent rain and almost every day being colder than normal... this was probably the best spring in your lifetime.    And maybe ever.   If you are referencing 2011 with "best in a decade" comment... we had 30 totally dry days in April/May 2011 and a whopping 7 dry days in 2022.   2011 had the cold but was much more reasonable in terms of rain.   An extra 23 dry days makes me nostalgic about 2011.    30 dry days in that period is actually a little better than climo which is 28 in April/May.  👍 

We had 17 dry days in April and May. Idk how that compares to 2011. This year was wetter here, but not as cold. Though April and May were still very chilly. We needed a wet spring and we got it. We had more rain than you but more dry days, Silver Falls is described as a temperate rainforest. That means it rains a lot, some years more than others. The temperate rainforest loves this. Maybe you should go back to California where you would have to find something else to complain about?

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We had 17 dry days in April and May. Idk how that compares to 2011. This year was wetter here, but not as cold. Though April and May were still very chilly. We needed a wet spring and we got it. We had more rain than you but more dry days, Silver Falls is described as a temperate rainforest. That means it rains a lot, some years more than others. The temperate rainforest loves this. Maybe you should go back to California where you would have to find something else to complain about?

Climo is climo... it normally rains on 32 or 33 days in April/May here and this year it was 54.    It doesn't need to rain almost every day with 200-300% of normal rainfall to maintain our forest.   😀

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Just now, Phil said:

You know it’s gonna be a hot day when it’s 90°F at 930AM. 🤢

Not "gonna be" a hot day... it already is.     Hard pass on that.  

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  • Longtimer
Posted (edited)
34 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Climo is climo... it normally rains on 32 or 33 days in April/May here and this year it was 54.    It doesn't need to rain almost every day with 200-300% of normal rainfall to maintain our forest.   😀
 

 Cry more 

Edited by SilverFallsAndrew
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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer
20 minutes ago, Phil said:

You know it’s gonna be a hot day when it’s 90°F at 930AM. 🤢

I’m sorry Phil. Maybe you and cry baby can trade?

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I just owned you. Cry more 

Your argument is silly and used way too often by a few people on here... basically that its a wet climate so climo does not really matter and its normally raining all the time.   But climo is always mentioned by the same people when its warmer or drier than normal.

Comparing the climo for this area to the actual weather in this area is always a fair discussion.    That is the only way to fairly gauge the weather.   

You say it rains a lot... and I agree.   Climo says that it true.   But the last two months were a huge departure from climo here in terms of persistent rain, total rain, and temperature.    Its just statistics.   You can't change it with your silly argument.   😄

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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For those of you wondering, KSEA didn't quite end up with the record fewest days above 60F for the spring coming in 3rd place with 21.

275006102_ScreenShot2022-06-01at8_31_58AM.png.d52febffa0abf29768ba463693a8532b.png

After a quick start at the beginning of the month, it also only ended up 7th with most days of highs under 55F for the month of May.

790839481_ScreenShot2022-06-01at8_33_13AM.thumb.png.18ed5ec36bae96a9ccde8af71eea3a61.png

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.24 (2010)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 5.8"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5"

2021-22: 21.75" (12/24: Tr, 12/25: 5", 12/26: 3", 12/27: 1.5", 12/28: Tr, 12/29: 1", 12/30: 3", 1/5: 2.5", 1/6: 1", 2/2: Tr, 2/21: 1.5", 2/22: 0.75", 2/23: 1.5", 2/24: 1")

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7 hours ago, Omegaraptor said:

Into the oven CA goes. The heat just abruptly stops at the border, lol.

Let's hope they can avoid a repeat of 2020 or 2021's fire season.

After the driest Jan - May in California history the fire season will be epic again unfortunately. 

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7 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

For those of you wondering, KSEA didn't quite end up with the record fewest days above 60F for the spring coming in 3rd place with 21.

275006102_ScreenShot2022-06-01at8_31_58AM.png.d52febffa0abf29768ba463693a8532b.png

After a quick start at the beginning of the month, it also only ended up 7th with most days of highs under 55F for the month of May.

790839481_ScreenShot2022-06-01at8_33_13AM.thumb.png.18ed5ec36bae96a9ccde8af71eea3a61.png

2011 is still #1

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Surprisingly mild on the ride in to the office this morning. Took my hoodie per force of habit but within a block it was clear it was too warm for it and into my pack it went. Expect to be wearing shorts in the first 20+°C temps of the season this afternoon.
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It's called clown range for a reason.

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21 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

2011 is still #1

Thanks for clarifying :)

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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12Z GFS is a little more improved for the weekend... still shows Saturday being dry until evening with highs in the low 70s in the Seattle area which is a little warmer than the 00Z run showed.    And Sunday is also a little warmer despite the rain which is mostly focused in the morning.  

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30 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

For those of you wondering, KSEA didn't quite end up with the record fewest days above 60F for the spring coming in 3rd place with 21.

275006102_ScreenShot2022-06-01at8_31_58AM.png.d52febffa0abf29768ba463693a8532b.png

After a quick start at the beginning of the month, it also only ended up 7th with most days of highs under 55F for the month of May.

790839481_ScreenShot2022-06-01at8_33_13AM.thumb.png.18ed5ec36bae96a9ccde8af71eea3a61.png

Some chilly summer analogs on that list!

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And the streak may well continue for a while, but that will just be YVR being YVR. It’s heavily affected by sea breezes and not representative in the least when it comes to our warm-season maxima. Pretty much the entire Greater Vancouver region except for immediate coastal areas should easily surpass the 20°C mark today.

 

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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  • Longtimer
1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Asking for a friend: Where is the best place in the eastern gorge to score a clear night for my Druid pagan ceremony on the summer solstice? 

Stonehenge, silly.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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17 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

And the streak may well continue for a while, but that will just be YVR being YVR. It’s heavily affected by sea breezes and not representative in the least when it comes to our warm-season maxima. Pretty much the entire Greater Vancouver region except for immediate coastal areas should easily surpass the 20°C mark today.

 

September 25 was also the last time I hit 20C. My high last month was 19C, although I should probably get above 20C today.

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.24 (2010)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 5.8"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5"

2021-22: 21.75" (12/24: Tr, 12/25: 5", 12/26: 3", 12/27: 1.5", 12/28: Tr, 12/29: 1", 12/30: 3", 1/5: 2.5", 1/6: 1", 2/2: Tr, 2/21: 1.5", 2/22: 0.75", 2/23: 1.5", 2/24: 1")

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