June 2022 - Summer Begins

[Anti Marine Layer]

7 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

For those of you wondering, KSEA didn't quite end up with the record fewest days above 60F for the spring coming in 3rd place with 21.

After a quick start at the beginning of the month, it also only ended up 7th with most days of highs under 55F for the month of May.

2011 is still #1

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Surprisingly mild on the ride in to the office this morning. Took my hoodie per force of habit but within a block it was clear it was too warm for it and into my pack it went. Expect to be wearing shorts in the first 20+°C temps of the season this afternoon.

[TacomaWaWx]

21 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

2011 is still #1

Thanks for clarifying

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS is a little more improved for the weekend... still shows Saturday being dry until evening with highs in the low 70s in the Seattle area which is a little warmer than the 00Z run showed.    And Sunday is also a little warmer despite the rain which is mostly focused in the morning.  

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

You know it’s gonna be a hot day when it’s 90°F at 930AM.

This time last year we were ringing in our month of death with a 95F day.

Don't miss it at all.

[Phil]

30 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

For those of you wondering, KSEA didn't quite end up with the record fewest days above 60F for the spring coming in 3rd place with 21.

After a quick start at the beginning of the month, it also only ended up 7th with most days of highs under 55F for the month of May.

Some chilly summer analogs on that list!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

And the streak may well continue for a while, but that will just be YVR being YVR. It’s heavily affected by sea breezes and not representative in the least when it comes to our warm-season maxima. Pretty much the entire Greater Vancouver region except for immediate coastal areas should easily surpass the 20°C mark today.

 

[Deweydog]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Asking for a friend: Where is the best place in the eastern gorge to score a clear night for my Druid pagan ceremony on the summer solstice? 

Stonehenge, silly.

[TT-SEA]

Next week looks pretty nice on the 12Z GFS.

[Skagit Weather]

17 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

And the streak may well continue for a while, but that will just be YVR being YVR. It’s heavily affected by sea breezes and not representative in the least when it comes to our warm-season maxima. Pretty much the entire Greater Vancouver region except for immediate coastal areas should easily surpass the 20°C mark today.

 

September 25 was also the last time I hit 20C. My high last month was 19C, although I should probably get above 20C today.

[The Blob]

We need a fire reaction with the up coming summer.

[Phil]

Notice how the GFS keeps correcting away from its cutoff tendency once inside D6-8.

It’s almost every run now, with the same exact bias in the LR. Reminds me of how the ECMWF used to always have a cutoff ULL in the SW US (that issue was fixed in a subsequent upgrade).

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, The Blob said:

We need a fire reaction with the up coming summer.

Or maybe we won’t, but the admins should add it (or maybe a smoke reaction) just to tempt the Murphy force into manifesting and preventing a bad fire season this year.

[ShawniganLake]

8 hours ago, Phil said:

First EPS run of meteorological summer looks more like an early winter jet extension.

We will see.  We are kind of past the point in the season where a strong jet results in a lot of heavy rain. 
 

Looking at rainshadowed areas in the interior, they are entering the peak of their “rainy season”.  May, June, July are the wettest months of the year in The Okanagan. With meandering ULL bringing much of that rainfall. 

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Or maybe we won’t, but the admins should add it (or maybe a smoke reaction) just to tempt the Murphy force into manifesting and preventing a bad fire season this year.

We need a “cringe” emoji for sure. 

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Notice how the GFS keeps correcting away from its cutoff tendency once inside D6-8.

It’s almost every run now, with the same exact bias in the LR. Reminds me of how the ECMWF used to always have a cutoff ULL in the SW US (that issue was fixed in a subsequent upgrade).

Am I the only one appalled at the performance of the GFS this year? The last upgrade improved its handling of CAD and tropical cyclone genesis, but its performance over the NPAC and NATL seems to be much worse now. 

Looking forward to the next upgrade in 2024 (I think that’s when it’s scheduled?)..can’t come soon enough.

[Phil]

#ThankYouTonga

 

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

#ThankYouTonga

 

Totally normal spring in WA.  

[Doinko]

7 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Couldn’t quite get to 100 pages on the May thread…

It looks like there were more pages on the May thread than the April thread, the month with snow in the lowlands.

[Phil]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This has been a great spring. Definitely the best in a decade at least. 

I agree. Even though we missed out on the cold, the zonal pattern/lack of +TNH prevented the endless S/SW flow we’d become accustomed to in recent years. Much lower humidity than any of the 2013-2021 springs.

Feels so good to have (hopefully) left that atrocious regime behind.

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Totally normal spring in WA.  

Just Mother Nature balancing out the insanity of the last decade. Easily the most anomalous intradecadal +TNH regime of the last century.

[Reg]

18 minutes ago, Phil said:

#ThankYouTonga

 

Interesting. May 2022 was unremarkable down our way, with temperatures ending around average for the month.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Just Mother Nature balancing out the insanity of the last decade. Easily the most anomalous intradecadal +TNH regime of the last century.

The last decade also re-defined normal annual rainfall in the Seattle area with 40-45 inches becoming much more common.    It's been warmer and wetter.    

[Cloud]

It was a PERFECT spring. 

[Phil]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

The last decade also re-defined normal annual rainfall in the Seattle area with 40-45 inches becoming much more common.    It's been warmer and wetter.    

Thing is that increased rainfall was focused during the cold season and came in shorter bursts (the way you like it). The last decade was much warmer+drier+sunnier than average during the spring/summer months across most the PNW region, thanks to relentless W-Pacific forcing reinforcing the +TNH/+PMM. Not exactly a good pattern for the biosphere there.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

It was a PERFECT spring. 

Well that is unfortunate... because you might wait a long time for a repeat.   

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Thing is that increased rainfall was focused during the cold season and came in shorter bursts (the way you like it). The last decade was much warmer+drier+sunnier than average during the spring/summer months across most the PNW region, thanks to relentless W-Pacific forcing reinforcing the +TNH/+PMM. Not exactly a good pattern for the biosphere there.

Nature adapts Phil.  

And as we have mentioned many times... there have been plenty of wet springs and even summers mixed in up here.

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Well that is unfortunate... because you might wait a long time for a repeat.   

Why wait? Roll it on for the next 3 months straight into Autumn

[Phil]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Nature adapts Phil.  

Sure. But that takes time. It still leads to a lot of ecological problems with undesirable repercussions.

Ash borer beetles have killed nearly every ash tree out here in just the last 5 years. They were some of the hardiest trees around..most survived the derecho without losing so much as a twig. Could probably stand up to a 115mph gust without any problems. Now..poof, all gone. It has already resulted in dramatic imbalances in insect/rodent populations which has opened the door for additional invasive species to thrive. You think that is a good thing? Because I certainly don’t.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Phil said:

Sure. But that takes time. It still leads to a lot of ecological problems with undesirable repercussions.

Ash borer beetles have killed nearly every ash tree out here in just the last 5 years. They were some of the hardiest trees around..most survived the derecho without losing so much as a twig. Now..poof, all gone. It has already resulted in dramatic imbalances in insect/rodent populations which has opened the door for additional invasive species to thrive. You think that is a good thing? 

Nature does not care about good or bad... it just adapts.    Its been happening since the beginning of time and won't stop any time soon.  

[TacomaWaWx]

17 minutes ago, Cloud said:

It was a PERFECT spring. 

I think the only thing that was missing was some big time thunderstorms…maybe we can manage some here in June. 

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Nature does not care about good or bad... it just adapts.    Its been happening since the beginning of time and won't stop any time soon.  

Nature “adapted” after a catastrophic asteroid strike as well. I still wouldn’t consider that a “good” day for planet earth, though.

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

Nature “adapted” after a catastrophic asteroid strike as well. I still wouldn’t consider that a “good” day for planet earth, though.

And that will happen again.    Nature is ambivalent to good and bad.    That asteroid did open the door to our existence though.   So I wouldn’t call it all bad.   

[Omegaraptor]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

#ThankYouTonga

 

Ritzville!

[Omegaraptor]

57 minutes ago, Reg said:

Interesting. May 2022 was unremarkable down our way, with temperatures ending around average for the month.

Lol. Are colder than average months even possible down there anymore? Feels like you can have a trough spinning over CA for an entire month and they'll still somehow manage to pull out an above average departure.

[Reg]

10 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Lol. Are colder than average months even possible down there anymore? Feels like you can have a trough spinning over CA for an entire month and they'll still somehow manage to pull out an above average departure.

It happens, it's just very rare now. Last year the months of March and October were colder than average here, although even then, not massively so. The last profoundly colder than average month we had was February 2019, which was the coldest such month down here since February 1962.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

48 minutes ago, Phil said:

Nature “adapted” after a catastrophic asteroid strike as well. I still wouldn’t consider that a “good” day for planet earth, though.

And nature is adapting right now as dry east-side forests burn and will in many cases be replaced by scrub that is more compatible with the new hotter, drier summers. Nature will adapt (though many individual species won’t). It’s unlikely our civilization (which arose during a period of relative climate stability) will.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

14 minutes ago, Reg said:

It happens, it's just very rare now. Last year the months of March and October were colder than average here, although even then, not massively so. The last profoundly colder than average month we had was February 2019, which was the coldest such month down here since February 1962.

It will happen again, despite the dice being loaded against it.

Many people were doubting if YVR could ever hit -15°C again, then last December happened.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

PRISM Rankings here...

2022:

April: 5th coldest 7th wettest

May: 11th coldest 3rd wettest

2011: 

April: 2nd coldest 17th wettest

May: Coldest 35th wettest

 

[Meatyorologist]

Looking increasingly favorable for the first thunderstorm outbreak of the season in the Puget Sound area tomorrow into tomorrow night!  I’ll post more in a bit.