June 2022 - Summer Begins

[The Blob]

We need a fire reaction with the up coming summer.

[Phil]

Notice how the GFS keeps correcting away from its cutoff tendency once inside D6-8.

It’s almost every run now, with the same exact bias in the LR. Reminds me of how the ECMWF used to always have a cutoff ULL in the SW US (that issue was fixed in a subsequent upgrade).

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, The Blob said:

We need a fire reaction with the up coming summer.

Or maybe we won’t, but the admins should add it (or maybe a smoke reaction) just to tempt the Murphy force into manifesting and preventing a bad fire season this year.

[ShawniganLake]

8 hours ago, Phil said:

First EPS run of meteorological summer looks more like an early winter jet extension.

We will see.  We are kind of past the point in the season where a strong jet results in a lot of heavy rain. 
 

Looking at rainshadowed areas in the interior, they are entering the peak of their “rainy season”.  May, June, July are the wettest months of the year in The Okanagan. With meandering ULL bringing much of that rainfall. 

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Or maybe we won’t, but the admins should add it (or maybe a smoke reaction) just to tempt the Murphy force into manifesting and preventing a bad fire season this year.

We need a “cringe” emoji for sure. 

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Notice how the GFS keeps correcting away from its cutoff tendency once inside D6-8.

It’s almost every run now, with the same exact bias in the LR. Reminds me of how the ECMWF used to always have a cutoff ULL in the SW US (that issue was fixed in a subsequent upgrade).

Am I the only one appalled at the performance of the GFS this year? The last upgrade improved its handling of CAD and tropical cyclone genesis, but its performance over the NPAC and NATL seems to be much worse now. 

Looking forward to the next upgrade in 2024 (I think that’s when it’s scheduled?)..can’t come soon enough.

[Phil]

#ThankYouTonga

 

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

#ThankYouTonga

 

Totally normal spring in WA.  

[Doinko]

7 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Couldn’t quite get to 100 pages on the May thread…

It looks like there were more pages on the May thread than the April thread, the month with snow in the lowlands.

[Phil]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This has been a great spring. Definitely the best in a decade at least. 

I agree. Even though we missed out on the cold, the zonal pattern/lack of +TNH prevented the endless S/SW flow we’d become accustomed to in recent years. Much lower humidity than any of the 2013-2021 springs.

Feels so good to have (hopefully) left that atrocious regime behind.

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Totally normal spring in WA.  

Just Mother Nature balancing out the insanity of the last decade. Easily the most anomalous intradecadal +TNH regime of the last century.

[Reg]

18 minutes ago, Phil said:

#ThankYouTonga

 

Interesting. May 2022 was unremarkable down our way, with temperatures ending around average for the month.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Just Mother Nature balancing out the insanity of the last decade. Easily the most anomalous intradecadal +TNH regime of the last century.

The last decade also re-defined normal annual rainfall in the Seattle area with 40-45 inches becoming much more common.    It's been warmer and wetter.    

[Cloud]

It was a PERFECT spring. 

[Phil]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

The last decade also re-defined normal annual rainfall in the Seattle area with 40-45 inches becoming much more common.    It's been warmer and wetter.    

Thing is that increased rainfall was focused during the cold season and came in shorter bursts (the way you like it). The last decade was much warmer+drier+sunnier than average during the spring/summer months across most the PNW region, thanks to relentless W-Pacific forcing reinforcing the +TNH/+PMM. Not exactly a good pattern for the biosphere there.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

It was a PERFECT spring. 

Well that is unfortunate... because you might wait a long time for a repeat.   

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Thing is that increased rainfall was focused during the cold season and came in shorter bursts (the way you like it). The last decade was much warmer+drier+sunnier than average during the spring/summer months across most the PNW region, thanks to relentless W-Pacific forcing reinforcing the +TNH/+PMM. Not exactly a good pattern for the biosphere there.

Nature adapts Phil.  

And as we have mentioned many times... there have been plenty of wet springs and even summers mixed in up here.

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Well that is unfortunate... because you might wait a long time for a repeat.   

Why wait? Roll it on for the next 3 months straight into Autumn

[Phil]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Nature adapts Phil.  

Sure. But that takes time. It still leads to a lot of ecological problems with undesirable repercussions.

Ash borer beetles have killed nearly every ash tree out here in just the last 5 years. They were some of the hardiest trees around..most survived the derecho without losing so much as a twig. Could probably stand up to a 115mph gust without any problems. Now..poof, all gone. It has already resulted in dramatic imbalances in insect/rodent populations which has opened the door for additional invasive species to thrive. You think that is a good thing? Because I certainly don’t.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Phil said:

Sure. But that takes time. It still leads to a lot of ecological problems with undesirable repercussions.

Ash borer beetles have killed nearly every ash tree out here in just the last 5 years. They were some of the hardiest trees around..most survived the derecho without losing so much as a twig. Now..poof, all gone. It has already resulted in dramatic imbalances in insect/rodent populations which has opened the door for additional invasive species to thrive. You think that is a good thing? 

Nature does not care about good or bad... it just adapts.    Its been happening since the beginning of time and won't stop any time soon.  

[TacomaWaWx]

17 minutes ago, Cloud said:

It was a PERFECT spring. 

I think the only thing that was missing was some big time thunderstorms…maybe we can manage some here in June. 

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Nature does not care about good or bad... it just adapts.    Its been happening since the beginning of time and won't stop any time soon.  

Nature “adapted” after a catastrophic asteroid strike as well. I still wouldn’t consider that a “good” day for planet earth, though.

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

Nature “adapted” after a catastrophic asteroid strike as well. I still wouldn’t consider that a “good” day for planet earth, though.

And that will happen again.    Nature is ambivalent to good and bad.    That asteroid did open the door to our existence though.   So I wouldn’t call it all bad.   

[Omegaraptor]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

#ThankYouTonga

 

Ritzville!

[Omegaraptor]

57 minutes ago, Reg said:

Interesting. May 2022 was unremarkable down our way, with temperatures ending around average for the month.

Lol. Are colder than average months even possible down there anymore? Feels like you can have a trough spinning over CA for an entire month and they'll still somehow manage to pull out an above average departure.

[Reg]

10 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Lol. Are colder than average months even possible down there anymore? Feels like you can have a trough spinning over CA for an entire month and they'll still somehow manage to pull out an above average departure.

It happens, it's just very rare now. Last year the months of March and October were colder than average here, although even then, not massively so. The last profoundly colder than average month we had was February 2019, which was the coldest such month down here since February 1962.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

48 minutes ago, Phil said:

Nature “adapted” after a catastrophic asteroid strike as well. I still wouldn’t consider that a “good” day for planet earth, though.

And nature is adapting right now as dry east-side forests burn and will in many cases be replaced by scrub that is more compatible with the new hotter, drier summers. Nature will adapt (though many individual species won’t). It’s unlikely our civilization (which arose during a period of relative climate stability) will.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

14 minutes ago, Reg said:

It happens, it's just very rare now. Last year the months of March and October were colder than average here, although even then, not massively so. The last profoundly colder than average month we had was February 2019, which was the coldest such month down here since February 1962.

It will happen again, despite the dice being loaded against it.

Many people were doubting if YVR could ever hit -15°C again, then last December happened.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

PRISM Rankings here...

2022:

April: 5th coldest 7th wettest

May: 11th coldest 3rd wettest

2011: 

April: 2nd coldest 17th wettest

May: Coldest 35th wettest

 

[Meatyorologist]

Looking increasingly favorable for the first thunderstorm outbreak of the season in the Puget Sound area tomorrow into tomorrow night!  I’ll post more in a bit.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Looking increasingly favorable for the first thunderstorm outbreak of the season in the Puget Sound area tomorrow into tomorrow night!  I’ll post more in a bit.

I noticed the ECMWF was showing some kind of blow up right over the Seattle area tomorrow night.

[Doinko]

6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Looking increasingly favorable for the first thunderstorm outbreak of the season in the Puget Sound area tomorrow into tomorrow night!  I’ll post more in a bit.

Anything for the Willamette valley/Portland area?

[Meatyorologist]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I noticed the ECMWF was showing some kind of blow up right over the Seattle area tomorrow night.

Yep, all CAM's (Convective Allowing Model) and CEM's (Convective Emulating Model) showing something tomorrow night

[SilverFallsAndrew]

11 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Anything for the Willamette valley/Portland area?

It seems to be focused more north. 

[Phil]

41 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

And nature is adapting right now as dry east-side forests burn and will in many cases be replaced by scrub that is more compatible with the new hotter, drier summers. Nature will adapt (though many individual species won’t). It’s unlikely our civilization (which arose during a period of relative climate stability) will.

Yeah the elephant in the room is the clock ticking on the Holocene interglacial. Humanity’s perspective has always been myopic due to our short lifetimes, but we will inevitably experience a dramatic decline in the human population either before or during glacial inception. Could be we screw up and off ourselves before then, but if not, we have thousands of years of advanced warning.

The present concern over climate change is also legitimate, but that’s more like pothole in the road, a few meters ahead of a giant ditch with a “do not cross” sign in front of it. Unfortunately our understanding of this process is analogous to Ptolemy’s understanding of the solar system.

[Meatyorologist]

13 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Anything for the Willamette valley/Portland area?

Andrew is right. While midlevel instability will be comparable, lift will be focused over WA. Still can't rule out a stray pop up thunderstorm in your area. Will definitely be quite a good altocumulus field around sundown.

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Yeah the elephant in the room is the clock ticking on the Holocene interglacial. Humanity’s perspective has always been myopic due to our short lifetimes, but we will inevitably experience a dramatic decline in the human population either before or during glacial inception.

Hopefully it’s far enough out that we’ll have time to develop the technology necessary to adapt. The present concern over climate change is also legitimate, but that’s more like pothole in the road, a few meters ahead of a giant ditch with a “do not cross” sign in front of it.

For graphical accuracy, replace the pothole with a speed bump.

[snow drift]

6 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Starting the first day of meteorological summer with a mild low of 55. A variable June would be nice, with some sun, rain, thunderstorms, marine layers and maybe even some seasonable heat on a day or two.

Most people would be happy with that. Sounds seasonable.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF shows what looks like a significant stratiform rain event on Saturday night and Sunday... but the details look pretty decent on Sunday with plenty of sunshine in between the showers and temps probably in the mid to upper 60s.   As I mentioned last night... far better than last Sunday. 

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

For graphical accuracy, replace the pothole with a speed bump.

Touché.

[Meatyorologist]

LAWL

[snow drift]

3 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

And the streak may well continue for a while, but that will just be YVR being YVR. It’s heavily affected by sea breezes and not representative in the least when it comes to our warm-season maxima. Pretty much the entire Greater Vancouver region except for immediate coastal areas should easily surpass the 20°C mark today.

 

I feel your pain, buddy.

[Deweydog]

9 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yeah the elephant in the room is the clock ticking on the Holocene interglacial. Humanity’s perspective has always been myopic due to our short lifetimes, but we will inevitably experience a dramatic decline in the human population either before or during glacial inception. Could be we screw up and off ourselves before then, but if not, we have thousands of years of advanced warning.

The present concern over climate change is also legitimate, but that’s more like pothole in the road, a few meters ahead of a giant ditch with a “do not cross” sign in front of it. Unfortunately our understanding of this process is analogous to Ptolemy’s understanding of the solar system.

So is it gonna snow next winter not

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I don't see any June 2008 style troughs on the horizon. 

[snow drift]

34 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

PRISM Rankings here...

2022:

April: 5th coldest 7th wettest

May: 11th coldest 3rd wettest

2011: 

April: 2nd coldest 17th wettest

May: Coldest 35th wettest

April 2022 was the 7th coldest on record at KGEG and May 2022 was the 9th coldest on record. April 2011 was the 2nd coldest on record. May 2011 was the 19th coldest on record.

[TacomaWaWx]

38 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Looking increasingly favorable for the first thunderstorm outbreak of the season in the Puget Sound area tomorrow into tomorrow night!  I’ll post more in a bit.

You’re banned for 24 hours if it doesn’t happen 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

16 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yeah the elephant in the room is the clock ticking on the Holocene interglacial. Humanity’s perspective has always been myopic due to our short lifetimes, but we will inevitably experience a dramatic decline in the human population either before or during glacial inception. Could be we screw up and off ourselves before then, but if not, we have thousands of years of advanced warning.

The present concern over climate change is also legitimate, but that’s more like pothole in the road, a few meters ahead of a giant ditch with a “do not cross” sign in front of it. Unfortunately our understanding of this process is analogous to Ptolemy’s understanding of the solar system.

Sure, but those few meters are a few thousand years at least. Choosing to create a crisis in the very near future just because one would happen in some thousands of years anyhow is stucking fupid.

[snow drift]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I don't see any June 2008 style troughs on the horizon. 

I remember that one. It snowed that year in June.

[TacomaWaWx]

Euro continues to impress me with these wet runs. Meanwhile despite the clouds it’s pretty nice out…67 degrees. 

[Phil]

15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I don't see any June 2008 style troughs on the horizon. 

12z Euro is going places, though. Verbatim this could be rushed, but I’m feeling some top notch troughing/-PNA later in June. MJO/AAM looks good.