gosaints Posted December 4, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 4, 2015 Interesting look... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015120412/gfs_z500a_us_45.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 4, 2015 Report Share Posted December 4, 2015 Too bad that AO wasn't dropping a little earlier. That 12th-13th system would have a better shot at becoming a snowstorm for some members here. It was very frosty here this morning. Sun feels good today. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 4, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 4, 2015 Too bad that AO wasn't dropping a little earlier. That 12th-13th system would have a better shot at becoming a snowstorm for some members here. It was very frosty here this morning. Sun feels good today.Ya that amount of energy is loaded with potential Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 4, 2015 Report Share Posted December 4, 2015 TBH, I wouldn't mind the first storm to take a more northern track so it can lay down a big swath of snow in the northern Plains/Southern Canada and fill up those snow holes. There is going to be a west/east storm train once this pattern revs up mid month and plenty more chances of snow for most of our members once the blocking rocks. http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/201512/nsm_depth_2015120405_National.jpg The cold air dome won't have time to warm and bodes well to supply future storm systems with cold air down the road. All in all, I am please where this pattern is heading and its no surprise here as ridging will continue to pull farther north/east and the jet does its dirty work cutting underneath . Seems like all the variables are coming together, including, minor SSW that is showing signs of development...which was always an "iffy" variable. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 4, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 4, 2015 Up to 45 here already today. Should be some decent overachieving today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted December 4, 2015 Report Share Posted December 4, 2015 GFS showing something that could break records late next week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 4, 2015 Report Share Posted December 4, 2015 12z Euro showing a 986mb bomb in W KS Day 9...here we go! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 4, 2015 Report Share Posted December 4, 2015 First run we see the potential of this storm. Looks like a NE/SD special...dumps 1-2 Feet in NE...tracks right over OMA, NE...it will be quite a long week tracking this potential beast! Repeat Blizzard performance in the Plains yet again??? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 4, 2015 Report Share Posted December 4, 2015 Another system digs farther south into the 4 corners region right on its heels. Pattern is loaded up...its about time...this time, blocking will be locked and ready to rock! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 4, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 4, 2015 Oh good some cold rain. Not much to stop that thing from cutting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 4, 2015 Report Share Posted December 4, 2015 Oh good some cold rain. Not much to stop that thing from cuttingYup, that's what this first storm is looking like and I don't expect snows out this way. This has the Plains and maybe parts of the Midwest written all over it. Once this storm departs, that's when we out here stand a better chance at snow systems. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 4, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 4, 2015 GEFS has a nice el nino look to it http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=namer&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2015120412&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=160 If one plays scrolls through this the influence of nino is obvious Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 4, 2015 Report Share Posted December 4, 2015 First run we see the potential of this storm. Looks like a NE/SD special...dumps 1-2 Feet in NE...tracks right over OMA, NE...it will be quite a long week tracking this potential beast! Repeat Blizzard performance in the Plains yet again???Like usual Tom you have me excited to start tracking again next week. Love the potential of this pattern for my region of Central Nebraska. We have actually warmed to 50 at 1:15 PM. Snow on the north side of buildings and houses and in piles. I assume by next week it will all be gone but hoping we can pile it up thereafter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 4, 2015 Report Share Posted December 4, 2015 Haven't seen a 500mb pattern like this all season long where we have a classic banana "hook" of blocking over the top from NW NAMER across into Eastern Canada. Meanwhile, a parade of systems cross the Pacific and the Aleutian Low "hands off" storms underneath into the west coast. Great pattern for storms/cold for the snow lovers out there. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015120412/ecmwf_z500a_namer_11.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015120412/ecmwf_mslpa_sd_nhem_11.png That intensifying 1045mb HP just north of Hudson Bay may "push" on the overall track of the storm late next weekend and trend it from cutting to soon, but I don't think its a Lakes special. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted December 4, 2015 Report Share Posted December 4, 2015 over amplified Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 4, 2015 Report Share Posted December 4, 2015 Way over done Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 4, 2015 Report Share Posted December 4, 2015 over amplified Way over done Both betting against climo and the pattern since late Oct??? Might not be so smart. This was a dynamic storm when it hit in November...enlighten us why you think otherwise??? Reverse Psychology....??? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted December 4, 2015 Report Share Posted December 4, 2015 Both betting against climo and the pattern since late Oct??? Might not be so smart. This was a dynamic storm when it hit in November...enlighten us why you think otherwise??? Reverse Psychology....??? I was mainly referring to the 500 mb pattern and heights. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 4, 2015 Report Share Posted December 4, 2015 Man, this pattern is looking interesting. Even though its quiet for the next week, we will be able to track this pattern shaping up. Not boring at all! GFS has a storm parade starting next weekend. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 4, 2015 Report Share Posted December 4, 2015 I was mainly referring to the 500 mb pattern and heights.Gotcha...keep note, that as we head deeper into Winter towards Feb...the jet has been continuously intensifying since early Autumn and doesn't begin to weaken until late Jan/early Feb. Highly amplifying patterns going forward is the way to go, IMO. Crashing SOI, Blocking, SSW all will play major roles to what happens as we move along. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 4, 2015 Report Share Posted December 4, 2015 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted December 4, 2015 Report Share Posted December 4, 2015 Both betting against climo and the pattern since late Oct??? Might not be so smart. This was a dynamic storm when it hit in November...enlighten us why you think otherwise??? Reverse Psychology....??? They're saying it just to be negative Nancy's. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralweather44 Posted December 4, 2015 Report Share Posted December 4, 2015 First run we see the potential of this storm. Looks like a NE/SD special...dumps 1-2 Feet in NE...tracks right over OMA, NE...it will be quite a long week tracking this potential beast! Repeat Blizzard performance in the Plains yet again???Is this the same pattern that brought western Nebraska and Kansas tornados? This of coarse referring to Jim flowers 30 day cycle. If so is in southeast Nebraska got rain. Western Nebraska got snow though. Central Nebraska looks to be the hot spot this winter. I think many of them have already seen 6-10" of snow total between all the storms that have went through here. Hoping to get something going in southeast Nebraska this winter. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 4, 2015 Report Share Posted December 4, 2015 Is this the same pattern that brought western Nebraska and Kansas tornados? This of coarse referring to Jim flowers 30 day cycle. If so is in southeast Nebraska got rain. Western Nebraska got snow though. Central Nebraska looks to be the hot spot this winter. I think many of them have already seen 6-10" of snow total between all the storms that have went through here. Hoping to get something going in southeast Nebraska this winter.Need the blocking to be in place at the right time. Hopefully this is the beginning of a trend regarding teleconnections. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted December 4, 2015 Report Share Posted December 4, 2015 Is this the same pattern that brought western Nebraska and Kansas tornados? This of coarse referring to Jim flowers 30 day cycle. If so is in southeast Nebraska got rain. Western Nebraska got snow though. Central Nebraska looks to be the hot spot this winter. I think many of them have already seen 6-10" of snow total between all the storms that have went through here. Hoping to get something going in southeast Nebraska this winter.I think that was November 11th if I remember right?! So 30 days would be pretty spot on Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 4, 2015 Report Share Posted December 4, 2015 Cold rain! I love it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 4, 2015 Report Share Posted December 4, 2015 18z GFS with a 986mb SLP near C WI on the 13th...let the model watching begin! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 4, 2015 Report Share Posted December 4, 2015 If we have to rely on transient cold shots for these storm to produce snow my area is screwed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 5, 2015 Report Share Posted December 5, 2015 Could hold potential later down the road. Over achieved today with it hitting 49°. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 5, 2015 Report Share Posted December 5, 2015 Could hold potential later down the road. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015120418/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_namer_44.png Over achieved today with it hitting 49°. This is the next system in the cycling pattern that produced a Blizzard in CO/KS/NE on Nov 16th/17th. It was another dynamic storm system that tapped tons of gulf moisture. Once the first storm departs, this one will eventually track farther south. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 5, 2015 Report Share Posted December 5, 2015 This is the next system in the cycling pattern that produced a Blizzard in CO/KS/NE on Nov 16th/17th. It was another dynamic storm system that tapped tons of gulf moisture. Once the first storm departs, this one will eventually track farther south.Hmm??!! Is that snow headed for SEMI? It looks like a potent system. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 5, 2015 Report Share Posted December 5, 2015 Today felt like October. I saw people in their shorts jogging and start thinking to myself...is this really December?! It was nice though. Believe it or not, I still have small piles of snow from November's snowstorm couple of weeks ago. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 5, 2015 Report Share Posted December 5, 2015 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 5, 2015 Report Share Posted December 5, 2015 I'd take that storm suppressed south into my area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 5, 2015 Report Share Posted December 5, 2015 I'd take that storm suppressed south into my area. will give it to you Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 5, 2015 Report Share Posted December 5, 2015 18z GFS is loaded up with juicy systems. Bring it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ingyball Posted December 5, 2015 Report Share Posted December 5, 2015 I don't think it got above 32 here in Columbus, if it did it was between the NWS recordings. Clouds lasted a lot longer than expected. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 5, 2015 Report Share Posted December 5, 2015 I don't think it got above 32 here in Columbus, if it did it was between the NWS recordings. Clouds lasted a lot longer than expected. This are was socked in with clouds yesterday and only reached the mid 30s. This time of year you need the sun or a strong southerly wind to warm up. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 5, 2015 Report Share Posted December 5, 2015 Seeing some more Arctic looking air moving southward at 240 hours on the 0z GFS. Definitely some colder air at and after day 10. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 5, 2015 Report Share Posted December 5, 2015 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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