December Observations and Discussions

[GDR]

[Maxim]

EURO shows rain for literally everyone in the subforum.

[GDR]

I noticed that also. Seems like the temps are higher each run

[jaster220]

The Canadian would make most on this forum very happy if it came true.  

 

dec. 9.png

 

..at least it's trying

[winterfreak]

Long range GFS is ugly to say the least. Same areas in the northern plains get blasted through Christmas. Looking like two inches of rain this weekend is a strong possibility hahaha in mid December.

[Tom]

Another big storm system is poised to target the Plains/Midwest/Lakes region in the 6-10 day range.  The system n question is approaching Japan and will be targeting the region over the next 24-36 hours.  Models take the system in a SW/NE track and rapidly intensify as it heads up into the North Pacific.  BTW, this is the system that is going to bomb out in the Bearing Sea over the next 3-6 days.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015120918/gfs_mslpa_wpac_7.png

 

12z EPS starting to see this storms potential...

[GDR]

[Money]

Shut up GDR

[Tom]

The "Nanook from the North" continues to show up on the GFS in the long range...Christmas Eve daytime high temps...Lol, I wonder what the excuse would be if this comes close to being true.  The GFS trend has been for a -AO/-NAO/-EPO...there are plenty of storms to track in the extended.  Somebody in this sub forum is going to cash in big before Christmas.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015120918/gfs_T2m_us_51.png

[Iowa2015]

Record high temperatures Thursday The December torch continues on as we head into middle of December

[GDR]

Shut up GDR

classy money just stating a fact

[CentralNebWeather]

High hit 67 in central Nebraska. Really ready for winter weather.

[centralweather44]

Hit 63 in southeast Nebraska. Hard to believe it is December.

[BrianJK]

Can someone please ban maxium and GDR?

 

Don't think a ban is warranted, but it would be great if there was a "block user" function where a certain poster(s) comments don't get displayed when enacted.  Mods, is this a possible function to add in the future?

[Maxim]

The "Nanook from the North" continues to show up on the GFS in the long range...Christmas Eve daytime high temps...Lol, I wonder what the excuse would be if this comes close to being true.  The GFS trend has been for a -AO/-NAO/-EPO...there are plenty of storms to track in the extended.  Somebody in this sub forum is going to cash in big before Christmas.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015120918/gfs_T2m_us_51.png

I'm sure it'll be moderated in later runs.

[gosaints]

If 2m temps at hour 360

[Maxim]

Amazing consistency so far...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201601.gif

[GDR]

The words from local weather guy is there's no snow in site. He did say that far northeast mn has a slight chance.

[ju wong]

y r the colors different i no understand i apparently am newbie? #totalexpert

[OKwx2k4]

Well, GFS craziness continues with a good snowstorm in Oklahoma late next week. Lol. It will be gone tomorrow but at least it's inside 200 hours. Next run it will be 45°.

[clintbeed1993]

What a garbage run on the GFS for my area.  Good lord if that verifies I'm freaking done.

[Tom]

Well, GFS craziness continues with a good snowstorm in Oklahoma late next week. Lol. It will be gone tomorrow but at least it's inside 200 hours. Next run it will be 45°.

Sooner or later you'll cash in.  GFS has been trending stronger on the blocking...you can see based on the individual runs that model trends have been to high on the chart and over the past several days its heading more deeper into negative territory from the 12th and beyond.  Tonight's 00z run had a positive EPO so the "Nanook of the north" stayed put....could care less so long we get plenty of snowstorms to track.

[OKwx2k4]

Sooner or later you'll cash in. GFS has been trending stronger on the blocking...you can see based on the individual runs that model trends have been to high on the chart and over the past several days its heading more deeper into negative territory from the 12th and beyond. Tonight's 00z run had a positive EPO so the "Nanook of the north" stayed put....could care less so long we get plenty of snowstorms to track.

I know. Actually, things really are going the way I thought they would but it just seems like it will never get here. I'm just impatient.

[james1976]

Record highs over here tomorrow around 60. Wasnt expecting that on December 10th. It literally seems like spring. Way mild and the grass is actually green, not brown. Massive H dominating my area on GFS for much of the model run. DMX calling for heavy rain this weekend before things go back to being quiet. Good thing is that winter doesn't actually begin til the 21st.

[Tom]

Glad to see that the models are dialing in on a more wintry pattern after the "lead" system Sun/Mon departs and transitions the pattern into a colder one.  Gotta say, even temps in the upper 20's are going to be a shock to the system after tomorrow's highs near 60F.  

[winterfreak]

Looks like another storm brewing around the 19th-20th with some respectable cold. Misses me for the most part but at least there's a snow signal this far south I guess. Trying to stay positive.

[OKwx2k4]

Looks like another storm brewing around the 19th-20th with some respectable cold. Misses me for the most part but at least there's a snow signal this far south I guess. Trying to stay positive.

As Tom said, our winter is coming. I'd rather have it in late December-February than November or March anyway. It will be worth the wait

[Money]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015121000/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_47.png

[Geos]

Sooner or later you'll cash in.  GFS has been trending stronger on the blocking...you can see based on the individual runs that model trends have been to high on the chart and over the past several days its heading more deeper into negative territory from the 12th and beyond.  Tonight's 00z run had a positive EPO so the "Nanook of the north" stayed put....could care less so long we get plenty of snowstorms to track.

 

Cold air has to come into the lower 48 if the NAO and AO both go negative. Think the models are trying to catch up with the changes in the indices later next week.

 

We all knew this week would be a mild one.

Will be glad when this dull weather stretch is over.

[winterfreak]

That is a glorious track at 324 hrs out. We're really reaching here.

[OKwx2k4]

That is a glorious track at 324 hrs out. We're really reaching here.

Haha. Just a little.

[Tom]

Cold air has to come into the lower 48 if the NAO and AO both go negative. Think the models are trying to catch up with the changes in the indices later next week.

 

We all knew this week would be a mild one.

Will be glad when this dull weather stretch is over.

Seems to be the case and something I learned over the years.  I'd be worried if the GFS started trending positive as we get closer, but instead, it's trending negative.  On another note, the GEFS T574 sniffed this pattern out way earlier than any other model.  It's a pretty good model to look at in the longer range for guidance.

[gosaints]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

[westMJim]

The sun has just broken thru the clouds and the temp in now up to 51° here at my house. This is already the warmest December 10^th since 1993 in Grand Rapids and the forecasted high of around 60 would be the warmest since a 62° (that’s the record for the date) set in 1971.  Here is what the GRR NWS office has to say about the week end.

http://www.weather.gov/grr/NearRecordTemperatures

[gosaints]

Impressive nighttime warming on saturday night

[GDR]

[BrianJK]

Do any of us have the potential to set a record for longest consecutive days without dropping below freezing in December?

[gosaints]

After our warmest fall.  December is up to about +11.. Could crack 50 today.    If the the GFS is on to anything its a blowtorch straight through next tuesday.  It continues to struggle with where to take the pattern in the mid-long range.  12z drastically different from 0z.

[Iowa2015]

Noticed the 12z gfs trending the Christmas eve Snowstorm now it's mostly rain event for eastern Iowa.I expect this trend to continue this will end up being another heavy rain event for the midwest as the December torch continues though the end oo December

[GDR]

Models keep trending warmer for January and it looks like the ao won't be negative very long.