Tom Posted November 26, 2015 Report Share Posted November 26, 2015 As the cut-off ULL feature that is dominating the overall weather pattern in the west begins to eject out into the eastern Rockies/Plains, it will interact with the remnants of Hurricane Sandra that is forecast to hit near the Baja of Cali and head up into N Mexico/TX. Models are now getting a better handle on these two main features and are targeting the central/southern Plains with a significant snowfall. Current guidance suggest NE to be the epicenter and should bring a smile to many snow lovers out that way. 12z Euro jet structure has a potent looking ULL tracking through the central Plains with a significant "speed max" right over OK/N TX which should supply maximum lift and snowfall in the cold sector of this storm system. If you missed out on the snow this Thanksgiving, it looks like you have a good chance at seeing some nice snowfall later this weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 26, 2015 Report Share Posted November 26, 2015 on that euro snowfall map, how much does it show for just today (so we can subtract that from the map above) -Canadian and GFS models show lincoln on the mix/rain/snow line. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 26, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2015 on that euro snowfall map, how much does it show for just today (so we can subtract that from the map above) -Canadian and GFS models show lincoln on the mix/rain/snow line. Subtract 2-4"...Euro keeps temps below freezing near Lincoln and 850's are -5C or less...sufficient for snowfall production... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted November 26, 2015 Report Share Posted November 26, 2015 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 26, 2015 Report Share Posted November 26, 2015 Subtract 2-4"...Euro keeps temps below freezing near Lincoln and 850's are -5C or less...sufficient for snowfall production... awesome. Hope that continues to be the case Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 26, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2015 You guys deserve it, I really hope this pans out so you can enjoy a decent storm finally. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 26, 2015 Report Share Posted November 26, 2015 Oh look a miss to the NW now 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 26, 2015 Report Share Posted November 26, 2015 Anyway this thing shifts 300 miles east 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowa2015 Posted November 26, 2015 Report Share Posted November 26, 2015 I'm game shifting that 300 east I be jealous if you all scored those kind of totals got screwed on the last storm only got like 3 inches. Now it's 60 out while just to my west its 40 temperature's should crash over the next couple hours crazy the warm air in front of the heavy rain Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted November 26, 2015 Report Share Posted November 26, 2015 I'm game shifting that 300 east I be jealous if you all scored those kind of totals got screwed on the last storm only got like 3 inches. Now it's 60 out while just to my west its 40 temperature's should crash over the next couple hours crazy the warm air in front of the heavy rainNo need to be jealous dude, if you were here the past 5 years you'd understand. We legit need this, been awhile since I've seen any sorts of totals this large within 120 hrs. Plus, your spot is awesome, I wouldn't stress one storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 26, 2015 Report Share Posted November 26, 2015 Nws Hastings says there will be snow Monday. Doesn't give potential amounts, ideas on the system, nothing. Was hoping for at least something. I will get my information from theweatherforums instead Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Snowball Posted November 26, 2015 Report Share Posted November 26, 2015 Omaha says they need to watch this system closely. That's it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Snowball Posted November 26, 2015 Report Share Posted November 26, 2015 Omaha says they need to watch this system closely. That's it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 26, 2015 Report Share Posted November 26, 2015 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 27, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 18z GFS...ramping up snowfall amounts...I think this system can become a juicy snow maker for NE...there is alot going for it to be full of surprises...slow mover, ample GOM moisture and cold air in place... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 27, 2015 Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 Needs to shift south by 50-75 miles Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 27, 2015 Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 18z GFS...ramping up snowfall amounts...I think this system can become a juicy snow maker for NE...there is alot going for it to be full of surprises...slow mover, ample GOM moisture and cold air in place...Talk about a sharp cutoff, wow. I could stand in my bare backyard and throw a rock and hit that 6" area. Lmao Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralweather44 Posted November 27, 2015 Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 Looks like Lincoln may be right on the edge. Right now they are calling for 35 degrees on Monday as well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 27, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 12z Euro Ensembles/Control are pounding away in NE/NW IA... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 27, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 00z GFS... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted November 27, 2015 Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 Too far NW. If we get rain shafted in SE Nebraska thatd be incredibly disappointing. EURO/CMC still drill the whole state, will be interesting to see if GFS follows suit, though it looks like it's actually moving further NW with this one. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 27, 2015 Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 GFS has no snow at all for WI/IL through Dec. 9th Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 27, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 Looks like the 00z GGEM has all snow for NE/IA/W KS.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 27, 2015 Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 This storm over performed for my area!! I just got back from David City; the roads were pretty much all ice but as long as you drove slow you were ok. I received 4" of snow, my first white thanksgiving in recent memory. That coupled along with a glaze of ice below makes for a sloppy mess around town. Our local station KOLN/KGIN's rpm model was the only model I seen call for 3-5" of snow in a small band. I'm pretty happy to say the least, I'll add some pics tomorrow! My bad, I posted this in the wrong storm. I just fixed it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted November 27, 2015 Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 00z GFS...well that run sucked for most of eastern Nebraska. my local point forecast has all mix throughout the event, so they must not be too sure of snow or rain yet either. I just know this is going to turn out weak sauce for Omaha Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 27, 2015 Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 Looks like the 00z GGEM has all snow for NE/IA/W KS....Correct me if I'm wrong Tom, didn't we have a hurricane in the same spot when the LRC was setting up this fall?! This storm should feed off that hurricane that currently is in progress with this system, interesting times ahead. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 27, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 Correct me if I'm wrong Tom, didn't we have a hurricane in the same spot when the LRC was setting up this fall?! This storm should feed off that hurricane that currently is in progress with this system, interesting times ahead. Indeed amigo, this will also have tropical influence...Cat 5 Hurricane Patricia tracked a little farther south, nonetheless, same pattern repeating itself. Gotta say, Jim Flowers 30 day cycle has been fairly accurate...+/- a few days Edit: Hurricane Sandra is a Cat 3, might reach Cat 4...with it being so late in the season is very impressive... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew NE Posted November 27, 2015 Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 I feel we are going to find ourselves on the southeast edge of these systems early in the winter with limited cold air in place. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 27, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 00z GGEM... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015112700/gem_asnow_us_24.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 27, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 I feel we are going to find ourselves on the southeast edge of these systems early in the winter with limited cold air in place.I wouldn't say that...its ONLY late November...you still have Dec-Mar...good 3.5 months to see plenty of storms...this season will not let you down with the amount of storm systems you'll see...plus, blocking looks to get established in this type of overall pattern as we move forward. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew NE Posted November 27, 2015 Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 I do agree, I think we will have a good winter especially compared to the last couple, I'm just excited to get into the later part of dec-Jan-feb. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 27, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 00z Euro... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew NE Posted November 27, 2015 Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 GFS might be onto to something with a slight NW shift. We will see in the next day or two. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 27, 2015 Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 If there was snow cover across the upper Midwest, the cold air supply would be right there. Snowcover is further north though. Would be nice to get a shift 100 miles further south for southeast Nebraska's sake. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 27, 2015 Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 Boring Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 27, 2015 Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 Looks like the 12z nam still gives us snow here in lincoln http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2015112712/namconus_asnow_us_29.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 27, 2015 Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 Everything needs to shift SE for me but Im not counting on it. Usually systems tend to shift back to the NW as we get close to the event. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 27, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 12z GFS shifting a bit SE...still lots of time to figure this track out...the tropical cyclone energy will need to come across MX so it can be sampled better to get an idea how much influence it will have as it phases with the ULL coming out of the Rockies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 27, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 12z GGEM... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015112712/gem_asnow_us_18.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 27, 2015 Report Share Posted November 27, 2015 just a guess here, but i think the euro will show the low go over southeast nebraska and give lincoln mostly mix Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.