MossMan Posted December 15, 2015 Report Share Posted December 15, 2015 Some more precip heading towards me. Northerly flow is really messy out here. It will end up being drizzle regardless of the temp.Drizzling here even with being able to look up and seeing stars. 36 degrees. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 15, 2015 Report Share Posted December 15, 2015 HR 210, definite improvement no doubt about it. Positive anomaly much stronger than previous runs.http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015121500/gfs_z500a_namer_36.pngImproves a bit more at hour 228 . It is so far out though this is really huge pile of dangling carrots. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 15, 2015 Report Share Posted December 15, 2015 Wow 00z GFS says white Christmas on Winters Hill Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 15, 2015 Report Share Posted December 15, 2015 The main thing is the improvements before day 8. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted December 15, 2015 Report Share Posted December 15, 2015 31 and frosty out, great night. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 15, 2015 Report Share Posted December 15, 2015 00Z Canadian continues to be sort of interesting for next week as well. http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 15, 2015 Report Share Posted December 15, 2015 WRF shows a massive snowstorm for the Gorge Thursday. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 15, 2015 Report Share Posted December 15, 2015 Improves a bit more at hour 228 . It is so far out though this is really huge pile of dangling carrots.Yeah, there is improvement through day 10, not arctic, but the positive anomaly along 160 W is significantly stronger, more prominent than previous runs. Good signs for potential colder runs ahead. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 15, 2015 Report Share Posted December 15, 2015 00Z Canadian continues to be sort of interesting for next week as well. http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gifLooks like improvement here too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 15, 2015 Report Share Posted December 15, 2015 The main thing is the improvements before day 8. Exactly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 15, 2015 Report Share Posted December 15, 2015 00Z Canadian continues to be sort of interesting for next week as well. http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gifThere is a good chance you will score in the next two weeks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 15, 2015 Report Share Posted December 15, 2015 As mentioned BITTER cold floods into Alaska-Yukon 850mb temps -30c to -45chttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015121500/gfs_T850_ak_41.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 15, 2015 Report Share Posted December 15, 2015 WRF shows a massive snowstorm for the Gorge Thursday. 12342428_881730361934607_1954892448128785787_n.jpgI was just about to mention this. Pretty decent setup but the northerly trend in the models may prove to be an issue if it continues. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 15, 2015 Report Share Posted December 15, 2015 This looks kind of chillyhttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015121500/gfs_T2m_ak_41.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 15, 2015 Report Share Posted December 15, 2015 The PV is now officially the strongest ever recorded, both in the observational data and reanalysis back to the WWII era. This is true in terms of pressure, size, and thermals. Additional records and anomalies include: - The most amplified +QBO wave on record- Highest weekly Niño 3.4 reading on record in Nov- Lowest 850mb U-wind anomaly on record over NPAC in Nov- Largest Dec +NAM on record in a Niño year (upcoming)- Largest Dec NAM spike on record in a Niño year (upcoming) We also observed the strongest hurricane ever recorded back in October, several record breaking +PDO monthlies, and one the weakest W/H ratio on record in 2015. #anomalous #changeisafoot Impressive anomalies. You're not the only only waiting for the Polar vortex to get knock off to the side and weakened. Been following the forecasts for the polar vortex to get displaced by a predicted SSW coming up from eastern Siberia at the end of the month. The EURO is showing a flip to a -EPO/+PNA around New Years. Would that be a fair prediction? Someone on the central sub forum posted a link to a very interesting and thorough post on the state atmosphere both in the troposphere and stratosphere. Mentions that the eastern US ridge will eventually migrate to the Canadian arctic early next month and the Alaska vortex will retrograde westward.http://www.lightinthestorm.com/(Dec. 11th post) Been an interesting winter so far - I can't believe how wet this el Niño is. A historic snowstorm in November, which produced about a third of winters normal snowfall here.Waiting for patiently for things to change, like most everyone else is. 2 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 15, 2015 Report Share Posted December 15, 2015 Does the Canadian only do a solution for 240 hours out? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman5678 Posted December 15, 2015 Report Share Posted December 15, 2015 My first year of college in Oklahoma we had a massive 14" snow dump with a blizzard on 11/30/06. Great memories! Have fun. Enjoying it as long as my final isn't cancelled tomorrow and I can fly out tomorrow after noon. It is going to be a little disappointing leaving so much snow though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 15, 2015 Report Share Posted December 15, 2015 Does the Canadian only do a solution for 240 hours out?Yes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 15, 2015 Report Share Posted December 15, 2015 Enjoying it as long as my final isn't cancelled tomorrow and I can fly out tomorrow after noon. It is going to be a little disappointing leaving so much snow though. That sucks leaving there now to come back here. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 15, 2015 Report Share Posted December 15, 2015 YesIt's just the only image that ever gets posted so that makes sense I guess. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 15, 2015 Report Share Posted December 15, 2015 When I was in college my flights home to and from winter break always landed in SLC. It seemed like it was always snowy. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 15, 2015 Report Share Posted December 15, 2015 It's just the only image that ever gets posted so that makes sense I guess.I read that wrong, I thought you were asking if that was the furthest it goes out. But I know what you mean Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 15, 2015 Report Share Posted December 15, 2015 http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_168_0000.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 15, 2015 Report Share Posted December 15, 2015 I read that wrong, I thought you were asking if that was the furthest it goes out. But I know what you meanSometimes I wonder if models should just initialize at 180 hours. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman5678 Posted December 15, 2015 Report Share Posted December 15, 2015 That sucks leaving there now to come back here. It so does! Oh well, plenty of winter left when I get back in January! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 15, 2015 Report Share Posted December 15, 2015 I will get interested when the ECMWF shows something interesting. Here is a performance check on the ECMWF at 192 hours... the first map is what it showed for this morning 8 days ago. http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!192!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015120612!!chart.gif And here is the actual initialization for this morning. http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!0!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015121412!!chart.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 15, 2015 Report Share Posted December 15, 2015 Sometimes I wonder if models should just initialize at 180 hours. I've said it before...they should just stop the individual runs around day 9-10. But the governments of the world are determined to torture weenies. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 15, 2015 Report Share Posted December 15, 2015 I will get interested when the ECMWF shows something interesting. Here is a performance check on the ECMWF at 192 hours... the first map is what it showed for this morning 8 days ago. http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!192!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015120612!!chart.gif And here is the actual initialization for this morning. http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!0!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015121412!!chart.gif Not great... but it certainly did not turn colder. But it did verify a little colder than forecast 8 days out. Ha! 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 15, 2015 Report Share Posted December 15, 2015 He can slam a revolving door... funny. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 15, 2015 Report Share Posted December 15, 2015 New 00z run of the GFS shows a White Christmas for some of us here west of the Cascades. Looks like the beaches might actually far better than the inland valleys. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20151215/00Z/f264/acc10_1snownw.pngBrookings road trip, *******! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 15, 2015 Report Share Posted December 15, 2015 But it did verify a little colder than forecast 8 days out. Ha!Agreed, it did verify colder. Not sure what Tim is seeing. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 15, 2015 Report Share Posted December 15, 2015 Agreed, it did verify colder. Not sure what Tim is seeing. OK... a tiny bit colder over us. The point I was making is that it did not evolve into something colder overall across North America. There was no magic appearance of true arctic air in Canada or Alaska. Its all bottled up in the actual arctic. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 15, 2015 Report Share Posted December 15, 2015 I've said it before...they should just stop the individual runs around day 9-10. But the governments of the world are determined to torture weenies.Yep, and like the ECMWF, the GFS should only run 12z, 00z 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 15, 2015 Report Share Posted December 15, 2015 00z ECMWF is running!Any improvement?Ridge/anomaly stronger along 160 W?Heat wave?White Christmas? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 15, 2015 Report Share Posted December 15, 2015 Here is the 216 hour verification on the ECMWF... top map was 9 days ago for this morning. http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!216!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015120512!!chart.gif And the actual pattern this morning... http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!0!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015121412!!chart.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 15, 2015 Report Share Posted December 15, 2015 Impressive anomalies. You're not the only only waiting for the Polar vortex to get knock off to the side and weakened. Been following the forecasts for the polar vortex to get displaced by a predicted SSW coming up from eastern Siberia at the end of the month. The EURO is showing a flip to a -EPO/+PNA around New Years. Would that be a fair prediction? That would be very early. I'm thinking mid-late January for the stratwarm and NAM flip, similar in timing to 2006-07. Even then, we'll have to deal with a strong Aleutian/GOA low, so end result will probably be a run-of-the-mill cold/snowy February over the SE half of the US. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 15, 2015 Report Share Posted December 15, 2015 Not a bad 00z ensemble suite! 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 15, 2015 Report Share Posted December 15, 2015 Not a bad 00z ensemble suite! Way to jinx the Euro! Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DareDuck Posted December 15, 2015 Report Share Posted December 15, 2015 It so does! Oh well, plenty of winter left when I get back in January!And if you're going to see family that trumps weather. If you're going to work, then that just sucks. 1 Quote Bend, ORElevation: 3550' Snow History:Nov: 1"Dec: .5"Jan: 1.9"Feb: 12.7"Mar: 1.0"Total: 17.1" 2016/2017: 70"2015/2016: 34"Average: ~25" 2017/2018 Winter TempsLowest Min: 1F on 2/23Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22Lows <32: 87Highs <32: 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 15, 2015 Report Share Posted December 15, 2015 Euro looks similar to GFS through 144 hrs, a bit more amplified with building offshore ridge. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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