MossMan Posted December 18, 2015 Report Share Posted December 18, 2015 I have seen blowing snow many if not during all the Arctic Blasts I have been a part of, fun stuff!! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 18, 2015 Report Share Posted December 18, 2015 Yeah, this GFS run isn't making a move towards the Euro. <_> Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 18, 2015 Report Share Posted December 18, 2015 Yeah, this GFS run isn't making a move towards the Euro. <_> That being said, there are some massive differences between every GFS run lately. No consistency. The Euro is the one model showing consistency right now...would like to think that means something. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 18, 2015 Report Share Posted December 18, 2015 Yeah, this GFS run isn't making a move towards the Euro. <_>Is it worse or about the same as the 18z? Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 18, 2015 Report Share Posted December 18, 2015 Through hour 144 I am nonplussed. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 18, 2015 Report Share Posted December 18, 2015 Bad news. HR 150 low develops too quickly and too far east. This ridge is barely building at all. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015121800/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_26.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 18, 2015 Report Share Posted December 18, 2015 36 degrees and moderate rain pretty much all day here. (Though we did have some wet snow mixed in at my work earlier today) November 1985 got me hooked on the weather. I was 9. Oh what a great Arctic Blast!Same here. The December 1983 event probably primed me, but November 1985 put things way over the top. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 18, 2015 Report Share Posted December 18, 2015 Bad news. HR 150 low develops too quickly and too far east. This ridge is barely building at all. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015121800/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_26.png More rain? Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 18, 2015 Report Share Posted December 18, 2015 Is it worse or about the same as the 18z? Worse. Closer to the 12z. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 18, 2015 Report Share Posted December 18, 2015 Bad news. HR 150 low develops too quickly and too far east. This ridge is barely building at all. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015121800/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_26.pngFlo from Progressive called and said she wants her 500mb pattern back. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 18, 2015 Report Share Posted December 18, 2015 Weird, no PV on this run in the arctic regions.... Outlier! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 18, 2015 Report Share Posted December 18, 2015 Most of the time I see blowing snow it is 31 degrees with 30mph SW winds and the concrete sticks to everything it hits. lolBlowing snow is the best. I'll never forget the V-Day squall last winter...4" in 25 minutes w/ 60mph winds. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 18, 2015 Report Share Posted December 18, 2015 That being said, there are some massive differences between every GFS run lately. No consistency. The Euro is the one model showing consistency right now...would like to think that means something. Yeah...besides that the ECMWF ensemble has been strongly supporting the operational model. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 18, 2015 Report Share Posted December 18, 2015 Weird, no PV on this run in the arctic regions.... Outlier! Yeah, like I said, some pretty massive differences run to run with the GFS with some features. But semi-consistent with others. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 18, 2015 Report Share Posted December 18, 2015 0z is a little interesting with the surface low on 12-24. Doesn't have a whole lot going for it, but ya know... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 18, 2015 Report Share Posted December 18, 2015 Yeah, like I said, some pretty massive differences run to run with the GFS with some features. But semi-consistent with others.Yeah, definitely. EURO has been most consistent run to run. I am anxious to see 00z EURO now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 18, 2015 Report Share Posted December 18, 2015 I'm concerned about where the Canadian goes. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 18, 2015 Report Share Posted December 18, 2015 Same here. The December 1983 event probably primed me, but November 1985 put things way over the top.Oh yes Dec 1983! I remember riding with my dad in his GMC 4x4 truck during that snow and he ended up pulling two cars out of the ditch, I thought that was the coolest thing ever. I can still remember ELO was playing on the 8-Track! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted December 18, 2015 Report Share Posted December 18, 2015 If the EURO blinks the wrong way, then no model is superior right now, or ever. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 18, 2015 Report Share Posted December 18, 2015 I'm concerned about where the Canadian goes.To a hockey game... or a Gordon Lightfoot concert... or Alan Thicke's house. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted December 18, 2015 Report Share Posted December 18, 2015 I'm holding off making any opinions until we are within 36 hours. And even then things change. Pray for a white christmas Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 18, 2015 Report Share Posted December 18, 2015 Even with this crummy run we still establish northerly flow as the ridges tilts into BC. 1044mb high dropping into Idaho. COLD offshore flow and persistent cold pool likely. Super progressive run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 18, 2015 Report Share Posted December 18, 2015 To a hockey game... or a Gordon Lightfoot concert... or Alan Thicke's house. Most likely Tim Hortons. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted December 18, 2015 Report Share Posted December 18, 2015 (we lived on a sloping hill)Fortunate break that you had a sloping hill. Those are much better for sledding than a typical flat hill. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 18, 2015 Report Share Posted December 18, 2015 To a hockey game... or a Gordon Lightfoot concert... or Alan Thicke's house. Last I heard Alan Thicke on the radio he was encouraging me to get a reverse mortgage... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 18, 2015 Report Share Posted December 18, 2015 Oh yes Dec 1983! I remember riding with my dad in his GMC 4x4 truck during that snow and he ended up pulling two cars out of the ditch, I thought that was the coolest thing ever. I can still remember ELO was playing on the 8-Track!In '83 as well as January '82 I remember riding down the big hill at Fort Columbia in a laundry basket. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 18, 2015 Report Share Posted December 18, 2015 Last I heard Alan Thicke on the radio he was encouraging me to get a reverse mortgage...He wants you to fight the IRS! 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 18, 2015 Report Share Posted December 18, 2015 I'm holding off making any opinions until we are within 36 hours. And even then things change. Pray for a white christmas You're way ahead of the Seattle NWS. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 18, 2015 Report Share Posted December 18, 2015 The GFS and 12z ECMWF are so different over the northern GOA around day 8 it's almost comical. Obviously I hope the ECMWF wins out, but at least the 0z GFS gets pretty cold, but dry. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 18, 2015 Report Share Posted December 18, 2015 He wants you to fight the IRS! The way my life has gone at this point I feel like in about 20 years I'll owe the IRS about 250K and those ads will feel a lot more relevant. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 18, 2015 Report Share Posted December 18, 2015 (we lived on a sloping hill)Fortunate break that you had a sloping hill. hose are much better for sledding than a typical flat hill. Right. Well, what I meant was that it wasn't super steep. The snow got packed down pretty good, so we didn't need much of an incline to really get going. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 18, 2015 Report Share Posted December 18, 2015 In '83 as well as January '82 I remember riding down the big hill at Fort Columbia in a laundry basket. I can't even figure out if this is true or not... Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 18, 2015 Report Share Posted December 18, 2015 Fake cold? Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 18, 2015 Report Share Posted December 18, 2015 I can't even figure out if this is true or not...It was what it was. That hill is brutal. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 18, 2015 Report Share Posted December 18, 2015 The way my life has gone at this point I feel like in about 20 years I'll owe the IRS about 250K and those ads will feel a lot more relevant. What happened to your life? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 18, 2015 Report Share Posted December 18, 2015 What happened to your life? He's obviously in the mob. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 18, 2015 Report Share Posted December 18, 2015 Dont pay irs Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 18, 2015 Report Share Posted December 18, 2015 00Z Canadian for Christmas Eve: http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_168_0000.gif And Christmas Day:http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_192_0000.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted December 18, 2015 Report Share Posted December 18, 2015 Where are you 450? You doin like you've never seen snow before lol. I love the enthusiasm!!!Oh I'm here. Just hanging out watching tv and looking outside trying to decide what I want to do tomorrow. Other then ride the quad with the kids, I might go for a short snow hike with my dog, just him and I. There are miles and miles of service/reservation roads out here that I can get lost on, on foot. Ive always wanted to hike through an eastern WA pine forest....ever since I was a kid. You can see everything, even if it gets thick for a moment, it always thins out and you can see. It makes it more fun to hunt, and to hike because the wildlife is more easily identifiable and seen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted December 18, 2015 Report Share Posted December 18, 2015 (we lived on a sloping hill)Fortunate break that you had a sloping hill. Those are much better for sledding than a typical flat hill. Awww yes......off camber snow sledding! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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