SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 The 12z gfs isn't bad really. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 The 12z gfs isn't bad really.Looking like you will have a white Christmas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 Close Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 It shows me in heavy snow. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 Even the long range around nye is interesting. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 Well, looking at the 12z - snow for many in the Puget Sound area, above 500 feet on Christmas day is good. No, this is not a lock, but with 850 levels at -7 to -8 there is a chance. Honestly, this is about the best chance of snow around Christmas that I have seen in a very, very, very long time. I will keep my expectations low for cold rain until we get closer and things improve ... Anything more than this is just silliness and it also keeps my fragile, weather-minded nature from breaking. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 I'll take that 50% chance!Score? Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 The chances of rain are definitely 100% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 That elusive dry day in December is looking pretty tentative. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 Wowzers...image.png The anomaly at DEN has dropped from around +10 a week ago to about +3.5 now. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 That elusive dry day in December is looking pretty tentative. Ain't happening today at the major stations. Maybe Christmas Day... that is about the only chance this month. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 Took a carload of kids up to Snoqualmie Summit for skiing this morning... reminds me of what it used to look like up there from 2006-2012. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 Took a carload of kids up to Snoqualmie Summit for skiing this morning... reminds me of what it used to look like up there from 2006-2012. The good ol' -PDO years. Speaking of which, this month might actually see the PDO go negative for the first time in a long time. Should be close. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 New Euro certainly looks like it has lowland snow. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 New Euro certainly looks like it has lowland snow.Be interesting to see the maps. But the jet and warmer air just plows right back in... no stopping that train yet. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 Be interesting to see the maps. But the jet and warmer air just plows right back in... no stopping that train yet.At least you will see snow. Snowfall map shows you and Hood Canal getting something. It will be nice if details work out for the rest of Puget Sound. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 Be interesting to see the maps. But the jet and warmer air just plows right back in... no stopping that train yet. Yup. Not sure if it's been mentioned, but the pattern is rather progressive. With decent chances of lowland snow around Christmas. That being said, myself, Phil and others have said all along that the best chance for Arctic air and a potentially better pattern is probably January. Aside from 1972, Decembers during strong Ninos have almost never produced much in the way of Arctic air. But there can still be fun without true Arctic blasts. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 Back at home now... here is our backyard this morning. Amazingly resilient snow here. http://s21.postimg.org/6v9fehkvr/2015_12_19_11_11_22.jpg Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 I can wait until January if it's historic and big Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winterdog Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 Front Ranger, on 19 Dec 2015 - 11:13 AM, said:Yup. Not sure if it's been mentioned, but the pattern is rather progressive. With decent chances of lowland snow around Christmas. That being said, myself, Phil and others have said all along that the best chance for Arctic air and a potentially better pattern is probably January. Aside from 1972, Decembers during strong Ninos have almost never produced much in the way of Arctic air. But there can still be fun without true Arctic blasts.Yes indeed! I've enjoyed hours upon hours peering into floodlights looking for that ever elusive snow-blob during such events. Fun too is the every ten minute thermometer and radar check. Who could get bored in this climate? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chinook Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 don't bash the weather n00b...but can someone explain resolution as it relates to weather maps? curious. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 I just went through the ECMWF maps and they don't show any real snow for my area... the moisture runs out on Thursday and then does not come back until Saturday. And a fire hose of rain into BC and NW WA on Saturday afternoon already. Unbelievably quick turn around. Maybe some flooding a couple days later. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 Well...It would appear the GFS might be as good as the ECMWF now. No doubt it led the way on this coming bust. Now even the ECMWF shows lowland snow chances as being pretty slim. I guess the 8 to 10 day period looks better than previous runs now, but this is pretty discouraging. Probably 75% to 80% of the state is buried in snow right now and we can't get anything in the Puget Sound lowlands. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 Well...It would appear the GFS might be as good as the ECMWF now. No doubt it led the way on this coming bust. Now even the ECMWF shows lowland snow chances as being pretty slim. I guess the 8 to 10 day period looks better than previous runs now, but this is pretty discouraging. Probably 75% to 80% of the state is buried in snow right now and we can't get anything in the Puget Sound lowlands. The GFS/Euro have come to a compromised solution from what they were both showing 2-3 days ago. Not sure one or the other really led the way this time. There is still a decent shot at some lowland snow next week. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 Well...It would appear the GFS might be as good as the ECMWF now. No doubt it led the way on this coming bust. Now even the ECMWF shows lowland snow chances as being pretty slim. I guess the 8 to 10 day period looks better than previous runs now, but this is pretty discouraging. Probably 75% to 80% of the state is buried in snow right now and we can't get anything in the Puget Sound lowlands.I knew you were being too optimistic. The ECMWF has not changed that much... just the fine details are warmer which is typical. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted December 19, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 Why does the HRES Euro tease me so? It's giving me 17" of snow by New year's eve eve eve... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 I knew you were being too optimistic. The ECMWF has not changed that much... just the fine details are warmer which is typical. Obviously the fine details are everything with this. The 0z Euro looked pretty promising. I don't think I've ever seen a setup like the one being advertised being so starved for cold air. The one thing we know for sure is the Arctic air will make an appearance in the US at some point. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 This newest gfs mm5 shows snow in areas jim. Last few did not. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 The GFS/Euro have come to a compromised solution from what they were both showing 2-3 days ago. Not sure one or the other really led the way this time. There is still a decent shot at some lowland snow next week. Maybe. We could see some unexpected moisture when the coldest air is here. Monday is also a wild card with that low tracking just south of Seattle. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 Well...It would appear the GFS might be as good as the ECMWF now. No doubt it led the way on this coming bust. Now even the ECMWF shows lowland snow chances as being pretty slim. I guess the 8 to 10 day period looks better than previous runs now, but this is pretty discouraging. Probably 75% to 80% of the state is buried in snow right now and we can't get anything in the Puget Sound lowlands. Interesting math there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 This newest gfs mm5 shows snow in areas jim. Last few did not. The 0z was a little better, but no runs before had shown any snow. It still shows the air mass certainly cold enough for snow on Christmas Eve, but no moisture by then. Some unexpected moisture / a C-Zone is our best bet. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 Interesting math there. Looking at the web cams even places like the Tri Cities have snow. I'll bet my numbers were close. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 Why does the HRES Euro tease me so? It's giving me 17" of snow by New year's eve eve eve... You could do pretty well up there. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 Well in a last ditch effort, I washed all the 4wd's...I have always done this the weekend before it snows. Mainly because the weather is usually pleasant a few days before it gets cold/snowy. Let it snow!! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 Interesting math there.You think so? Pretty much all of eastern wa is covered. 70 percent seems like a good estimation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 Looking at the web cams even places like the Tri Cities have snow. I'll bet my numbers were close. Geographically much of the state is mountainous and basically uninhabitable year-round, so I guess. But the same could be said for a lot of the year. The western half of the state, sans mountains, is completely snowless right now so it'd be rather misleading to suggest that an extremely disproportionate amount of the state has snow relative to normal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 You think so? Pretty much all of eastern wa is covered. 70 percent seems like a good estimation. I'd guess 60%. Technically there is more land area east of the Cascades than there is west of it so that maybe does skew the balance. Of course the vast majority of areas below 1000' in the state have no snowcover. Again, a pretty normal balance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 Geographically much of the state is mountainous and basically uninhabitable year-round, so I guess. But the same could be said for a lot of the year. The western half of the state, sans mountains, is completely snowless right now so it'd be rather misleading to suggest that an extremely disproportionate amount of the state has snow relative to normal.I get what you are saying. We are all just snow starved weenies. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winterdog Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 MossMan, on 19 Dec 2015 - 12:06 PM, said:Well in a last ditch effort, I washed all the 4wd's...I have always done this the weekend before it snows. Mainly because the weather is usually pleasant a few days before it gets cold/snowy. Let it snow!!That's a great looking Monkey tree. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 19, 2015 Report Share Posted December 19, 2015 Obviously the fine details are everything with this. The 0z Euro looked pretty promising. I don't think I've ever seen a setup like the one being advertised being so starved for cold air. The one thing we know for sure is the Arctic air will make an appearance in the US at some point.Probably, but I don't anticipate anything like the record breaking airmasses of the last two winters, and there's a good chance we'll need to wait until late January or beyond as the NAM (AO) flips negative. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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