December 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS also gives us another dry day on Saturday... previous runs had the fire hose already on us by that afternoon.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_144_precip_p03.gif

[MossMan]

So will the nws mention snow in the forecast for tomorrow? Yes or no?

The latest 9pm AFD from NWS Seattle...

OVERALL THIS SNOWFALL IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO MENTION IN THE

FORECASTS. Looks like a copy/paste from the afternoon.

[TT-SEA]

Wow... what is that for me?   2 feet?

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/ww_snow72.84.0000.gif

[bainbridgekid]

00Z GFS also gives us another dry day on Saturday... previous runs had the fire hose already on us by that afternoon.

 

It also absolutely buries the Texas panhandle in 2-3 feet of snow next weekend.

[MossMan]

Wow... what is that for me? 2 feet?

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/ww_snow72.84.0000.gif

Wow!! Party at Tim's!!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Wow!! Party at Tim's!!

almost 3 feet. I am saying now. Tim will have 28 inches on xmas morning.

[TT-SEA]

almost 3 feet. I am saying now. Tim will have 28 inches on xmas morning.

 

 

It always hard to tell because of the ridge.   But yeah... technically it shows about 2.5 feet for me by Christmas Eve.

 

A good 4-8 inches for Jim as well.   I hope you are going to be home on Christmas, Jim!  

[Guest Winterdog]

Wow!! Party at Tim's!!

For a minute I thought that map showed nothing for you and I but it shows 2" for me and nothing for you.  You are higher in elevation than I am so I'm sure you will get some if I do.

[Snowman5678]

Wow... what is that for me?   2 feet?

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/ww_snow72.84.0000.gif

 

South King and Pierce get the goodies on this run! 1.5-2" for me. 

[TT-SEA]

Expanded view...

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/msnow72.84.0000.gif

[TT-SEA]

When its warranted... I am very positive!     

 

Just had to point that out right now.  

[ShawniganLake]

Isn't this the part when someone tells us the WRF is usually overdone or doesn't handle these situations well, or that the models will start trending warmer now?

[HighlandExperience]

South King and Pierce get the goodies on this run! 1.5-2" for me. 

 

The only dry spot is right over the Puyallup valley. 

[HighlandExperience]

Isn't this the part when someone tells us the WRF is usually overdone or doesn't handle these situations well, or that the models will start trending warmer now?

 

When it snowed back a few weeks ago (just a dusting), the WRF handled it pretty well. 

[MossMan]

For a minute I thought that map showed nothing for you and I but it shows 2" for me and nothing for you. You are higher in elevation than I am so I'm sure you will get some if I do.

I sure hope so! Hopefully we both get in on some of the action.

[HighlandExperience]

Expanded view...

 

 

 

 

I have a feeling Crystal is going to have skiing well into early June. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

I just looked at the snow maps... What the hell?? I look to have up to 6 to 8 inches at my house... Is this for real!?!!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

So will the nws mention snow in the forecast for tomorrow? Yes or no?

[luvssnow_spokane]

The only dry spot is right over the Puyallup valley.

U mean the "swamp" often the major screw zone of the state for snow...

[luvssnow_spokane]

So will the nws mention snow in the forecast for tomorrow? Yes or no?

Yes just before it is about to verify.. Or after it has started to soon for them.

[MossMan]

So will the nws mention snow in the forecast for tomorrow? Yes or no?

Not until they are issuing Winter Weather Advisories or Winter Storm Warnings.

[Gradient Keeper]

Starting to look potent

 

http://i.imgur.com/RLpGVGD.png

[MikeInEverett]

King, Komo, or Kiro probably won't mention anything like always. That's why I don't pay attention to the weather on the news.

[Jbolin]

Isn't this the part when someone tells us the WRF is usually overdone or doesn't handle these situations well, or that the models will start trending warmer now?

The WRF is overdoing the precip amounts

[ShawniganLake]

When it snowed back a few weeks ago (just a dusting), the WRF handled it pretty well.

Yea, it did okay up here during Thursday's snow too.

[Gradient Keeper]

* ** * * ** * * ** * **

** * S N O W ! ** *

* ** * * ** * ** * ** *

[ShawniganLake]

The WRF is overdoing the precip amounts

Usually with big rain events you can just cut the precip amounts in half, at least up here anyways.

[ShawniganLake]

Getting some light freezing rain showers here this evening as the temp fluctuates between 31f and 32f.

[Bryant]

When its warranted... I am very positive!

 

Just had to point that out right now.

So, when things go your way you're positive. Otherwise, you're negative and rude. Guess that shows the kind of person you are

[GHweatherChris]

So, when things go your way you're positive. Otherwise, you're negative and rude. Guess that shows the kind of person you are

Great point!

[TT-SEA]

So, when things go your way you're positive. Otherwise, you're negative and rude. Guess that shows the kind of person you are

 

 

No... when there is actually a good chance of lowland snow.     I have been positive about many events that do not favor my location.    And not so positive when only my location gets snow.  I don't like being the only place getting snow outside of the mountains.   Much rather share the wealth.

[TT-SEA]

HRRR total snow through tomorrow evening...

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2015122103/t1/acsnw_t1sfc_f24.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The ensembles are so ugly after New Years I don't even want to think about it. 

[Timmy]

The ensembles are so ugly after New Years I don't even want to think about it.

 

Did you want some more rain? I thought you are all about ridges.

[BLI snowman]

The ensembles are so ugly after New Years I don't even want to think about it.

Lol, you act like January and +PNA induced longwave ridging on the West Coast don`t go hand in hand.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Did you want some more rain? I thought you are all about ridges.

 

You confused me with someone else.

[epiceast]

HRRR total snow through tomorrow evening...

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2015122103/t1/acsnw_t1sfc_f24.png

Does not look good for me.

[Deweydog]

So, when things go your way you're positive. Otherwise, you're negative and rude. Guess that shows the kind of person you are

That's not very fair. This may actually be more applicable to his nemesis.

[Timmy]

You confused me with someone else.

Lol, I certainly did. On my phone and not on my A game Apparently

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF is just slightly more south with the track of the low tomorrow compared to its 12Z run... very slightly.

 

Looks like it comes in just south of Grays Harbor around 10 a.m. and then over Tacoma by 1 p.m. and east of Yakima at 4 p.m.