CentralNebWeather Posted December 21, 2015 Report Share Posted December 21, 2015 I looked back at gfs 12z and it had no snow in Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, or western Kansas and very little for me in central Nebraska. Don't lose hope winterfreak. Now it shows 3 feet in places. Hard to take these models seriously with that amount of flipping in 12 hours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 21, 2015 Report Share Posted December 21, 2015 As long as the model is shifting around 400+ miles each run into wouldn't give up just yet. Several changes happening between runs still. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 21, 2015 Report Share Posted December 21, 2015 Ggem has the low go over western kansas, farther west then gfs http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_180_0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 21, 2015 Report Share Posted December 21, 2015 http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_192_0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 21, 2015 Report Share Posted December 21, 2015 That had been the preferred track most of the last 7 weeks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 21, 2015 Report Share Posted December 21, 2015 A track anywhere west of central MO is a lose lose. Track can shift all it wants but teleconnections don't support any snow. I would take a flake or too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 21, 2015 Report Share Posted December 21, 2015 A track anywhere west of central MO is a lose lose.I agree with that. You pretty much need a similar storm track to what I'm looking for. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 21, 2015 Report Share Posted December 21, 2015 A track anywhere west of central MO is a lose lose. Track can shift all it wants but teleconnections don't support any snow. I would take a flake or too.Two. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 21, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 21, 2015 Not surprise to see a cut off low in this type of pattern. Cut off lows can go a bunch of different ways. Impossible to pin down a track on it. Can hope that the northern branch of the jet stream has more amplitude to itself and there is no cut off low. They muck up everything, imo. It takes a ridge building south of Alaska to reroute the jet stream into the Southwest to kick it on out. But after that the pattern starts looking a bit better. Then towards New Years the AO flips to negative, while a West Coast ridge sets up. Low heights dominate the Bearing Sea though the end of the run. That extreme strong ridge on the other side of the global will be the demise of the polar vortex. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 21, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 21, 2015 The core of the vortex; at least on this update, looks to get larger pushed towards Greenland. Lot of changes coming in the next 10-14 days. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted December 21, 2015 Report Share Posted December 21, 2015 oh look, some more cold rain. what else is new? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 21, 2015 Report Share Posted December 21, 2015 Jim flowers Facebook page has several videos this morning. He basically says no cold air to work with so storm has to make its own cold. He doesn't buy the Canadian model or the gfs. He usually only believes the euro from just starting to watch his videos the last month Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 21, 2015 Report Share Posted December 21, 2015 12z GFS...3-day totals...the snow cover that has been building over the past week in the northern Plains may pay dividends for this system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 21, 2015 Report Share Posted December 21, 2015 Tom, will there be enough cold air? Nws Hastings is concerned about a warm layer aloft and freezing rain. I would take the snow any day even though we have relatives coming here for Christmas from Kansas City on the 26th. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 21, 2015 Report Share Posted December 21, 2015 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 21, 2015 Report Share Posted December 21, 2015 Tom, will there be enough cold air? Nws Hastings is concerned about a warm layer aloft and freezing rain. I would take the snow any day even though we have relatives coming here for Christmas from Kansas City on the 26th.All depends on how strong that HP will be to supply the cold air. We won't have a good idea till about 3 days out. However, I think your sitting in a great spot. 00z EPS keeps pumping out a great snowy signal for your region. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 21, 2015 Report Share Posted December 21, 2015 12z ggem Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 21, 2015 Report Share Posted December 21, 2015 12z gem qpf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 21, 2015 Report Share Posted December 21, 2015 850's look marginal on the GGEM... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 21, 2015 Report Share Posted December 21, 2015 850's look marginal on the GGEM...very,. alot of mix bag Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 21, 2015 Report Share Posted December 21, 2015 . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 21, 2015 Report Share Posted December 21, 2015 Thanks guys great images and animations Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 21, 2015 Report Share Posted December 21, 2015 Look at all that snow just to my west. Brutal pattern we're stuck in right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 21, 2015 Report Share Posted December 21, 2015 Towel thrown, on to the next. Gonna break out the lawn mower Christmas eve just to say I did. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 21, 2015 Report Share Posted December 21, 2015 I have never seen this much snow predicted for my area. Fun to look at but doubt it would ever materialize. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 21, 2015 Report Share Posted December 21, 2015 Towel thrown, on to the next. Gonna break out the lawn mower Christmas eve just to say I did.I did last week. I've never seen the grass so green at the end of December. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 21, 2015 Report Share Posted December 21, 2015 last few posts are looking at cut off low around a week out. This is lunacy. As Tom said,, 3 days out at the max--- try 24 hours with a cut off low. Any snow that falls before that will have a huge impact where the "cut off" low moves. Really not even worth discussing at this point and shows the lack of winter soo far.. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 21, 2015 Report Share Posted December 21, 2015 If I lived anywhere from east Tulsa down to Durant, OK or slightly east, the possibility of a crippling ice storm starts entering my consciousness right about now. Can't wait til this thing gets handled better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 21, 2015 Report Share Posted December 21, 2015 For those of us in the eastern half of the forum, this is a broken record that keeps playing over and over and over in 82/83 fashion. On to January! Hopefully at least you guys further west can score on this - best of luck. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 21, 2015 Report Share Posted December 21, 2015 euro should be going Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 21, 2015 Report Share Posted December 21, 2015 euro should be goinglooks like a cutoff in Tx/Mexico Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 21, 2015 Report Share Posted December 21, 2015 EURO looks like garbage again. Cut off low and western plains cutter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 21, 2015 Report Share Posted December 21, 2015 EURO looks like garbage again. Cut off low and western plains cutter.i wouldn't get your hopes up. Just one of those years Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 21, 2015 Report Share Posted December 21, 2015 EURO looks like garbage again. Cut off low and western plains cutter.Yeah. That's the look right now. Still wondering if the low won't swing out to the east a little more as time goes before ejecting NE. It's just a funny track for such a powerful storm. We'll just have to see. Still a few days to go yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralweather44 Posted December 21, 2015 Report Share Posted December 21, 2015 Can someone post the Euro? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 21, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 21, 2015 850mb maps at least. Races northeast then, as the western trough digs in. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 21, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 21, 2015 Was reading that this Scandinavian Ridge might be the whole key to turning this pattern on its head and weakening the polar vortex.Need to get the ridge to aim towards the pole a little better. It will at least weaken it and make it harder for it to keep all the polar/arctic air locked up. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 21, 2015 Report Share Posted December 21, 2015 Looks like a lot of rain on the 18z for the after Christmas storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naddan85 Posted December 21, 2015 Report Share Posted December 21, 2015 The 18z GFS is looking beautiful for Lincoln and Omaha: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015122118/gfs_asnow_ncus_30.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 21, 2015 Report Share Posted December 21, 2015 The 18z GFS is looking beautiful for Lincoln and Omaha: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015122118/gfs_asnow_ncus_30.pnghopefully the upper 30s low 40s won't hurt much 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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