CentralNebWeather Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 No local mets are mentioning anything remotely close to this. Most talking above average temperatures next week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 No local mets are mentioning anything remotely close to this. Most talking above average temperatures next week.that's because this is 9-10 days away Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 GFS now has nothing in NE. Got to love the models. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 13, 2016 Report Share Posted January 13, 2016 Can't wait till the SW Flow part of the LRC returns around the 21st...blocking looks like it will stick around somewhat and I'm sure there will be more juiced up systems. Euro Ensembles already picking up on troughing in the extended down near the 4 corners region. 12z EPS is blossoming with increased snow chances. I think we are about to enter a phenomenal period in the central CONUS. Should be pretty exciting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 13, 2016 Report Share Posted January 13, 2016 Three totally different solutions with the GFS for that turkey day redux storm. Has it going way down to the gulf. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 13, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 13, 2016 I tell you one thing, the typical el Niño pattern with storms cutting up the East Coast has yet to show itself. One does look to head up the coast in the short term, but it looks to be mainly rain. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 13, 2016 Report Share Posted January 13, 2016 GFS also looks a lot warmer shortly after hour 240. El Niño sucks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 13, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 13, 2016 GFS also looks a lot warmer shortly after hour 240. El Niño sucks. At least it looks short lived. Another Arctic attack come towards 324 hours.System at 192 hours, that could be of interest in your area. Good thing is that the effects of el Nino is on the decrease. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted January 13, 2016 Report Share Posted January 13, 2016 bet the next run floods pacific air at hour 324... terribly inconsistent model. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 13, 2016 Report Share Posted January 13, 2016 At least it looks short lived. Another Arctic attack come towards 324 hours.System at 192 hours, that could be of interest in your area. Good thing is that the effects of el Nino is on the decrease.Ya by march you wont even know its there... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 13, 2016 Report Share Posted January 13, 2016 Probably the same one I saw around 230 hrs yesterday. May be unrelated as well. Will have to look. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 13, 2016 Report Share Posted January 13, 2016 bet the next run floods pacific air at hour 324... terribly inconsistent model.Name one model that is consistent 324 hours out. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 13, 2016 Report Share Posted January 13, 2016 GFS is way south again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 13, 2016 Report Share Posted January 13, 2016 So much for the anything but boring cold and dry Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted January 13, 2016 Report Share Posted January 13, 2016 Lets Hope Accuweather is onto something Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted January 13, 2016 Report Share Posted January 13, 2016 the 21-23 period will probably be our best (and possibly last) chance to see legit, synoptic snow from an actual storm system. Decent agreement on a drastic pattern shift more familiar to what we saw in December by late month, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted January 13, 2016 Report Share Posted January 13, 2016 I personally think Jan will end up being the coldest month this winter season. I see no reason why the current pattern should persist all throughout Feb, unless you're banking on the PV to be completely dislodged, or the Arctic to keep torching like it has been (both highly unlikely). So pretty confident on a torchy Feb/March at the moment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 13, 2016 Report Share Posted January 13, 2016 I personally think Jan will end up being the coldest month this winter season. I see no reason why the current pattern should persist all throughout Feb, unless you're banking on the PV to be completely dislodged, or the Arctic to keep torching like it has been (both highly unlikely). So pretty confident on a torchy Feb/March at the moment.I actually agree with this. At the least the first half of Feb will be above average. After that odds really aren't in most people's favor as we head into late Feb and March because of climo. At least here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 13, 2016 Report Share Posted January 13, 2016 Not saying it will happen but what does the EURO pattern resemble after the cold shot????? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted January 13, 2016 Report Share Posted January 13, 2016 Not saying it will happen but what does the EURO pattern resemble after the cold shot?????weaker version of the pattern we saw in December. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 14, 2016 Report Share Posted January 14, 2016 GFS was nice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 14, 2016 Report Share Posted January 14, 2016 Pattern is going to light up with snow chances for those who haven't seen much this winter. Those that are farther north are going to stay cold/dry as expected. Anyone from I-80 on south has a real good chance at seeing snow fall as the SW Flow part of the LRC kicks in. Euro Ensembles are continually increasing the chances of snowfall from the Plains/Midwest/Lakes/OV Week 1-2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 14, 2016 Report Share Posted January 14, 2016 Ggem with 8-12 from NE KS through STL and central IL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 14, 2016 Report Share Posted January 14, 2016 GGEM: http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/ggem/20160114/00Z/f240/acc10_1snowconus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 14, 2016 Report Share Posted January 14, 2016 Too bad it's seven days out. Would make the wait worth it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 14, 2016 Report Share Posted January 14, 2016 EURO is on another planet of course. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 14, 2016 Report Share Posted January 14, 2016 EURO is on another planet of course.Split stream nothingness Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 14, 2016 Report Share Posted January 14, 2016 Pattern is going to light up with snow chances for those who haven't seen much this winter. Those that are farther north are going to stay cold/dry as expected. Anyone from I-80 on south has a real good chance at seeing snow fall as the SW Flow part of the LRC kicks in. Euro Ensembles are continually increasing the chances of snowfall from the Plains/Midwest/Lakes/OV Week 1-2. If we do get an active period with real storm chances why do you feel that a southerly storm track makes sense??? We have storms cut north and west this year that went against any sort of teleconnection rule... We will also most likely continue to battle having precip type issues with any real systems Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 14, 2016 Report Share Posted January 14, 2016 If we do get an active period with real storm chances why do you feel that a southerly storm track makes sense???Climo and the fact that ridging begins developing in southern Canada. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 14, 2016 Report Share Posted January 14, 2016 Climo and the fact that ridging begins developing in southern Canada.More threading the needle ahead most likely. Cant even count on a front end thump with the systems coming out of the SW Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 14, 2016 Report Share Posted January 14, 2016 JMA Weeklies came in today and suggest a stormy look Week 1 & Week 2...at 500mb, the pattern looks great...the model is also suggesting a colder than normal second half of the month. CFSv2 also agreeing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 14, 2016 Report Share Posted January 14, 2016 00z Euro prob had a fluke run...noticed the NAO spike way positive that run...the current 10mb/30mb warming that is happening may be wrecking havoc in the modeling. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 14, 2016 Report Share Posted January 14, 2016 GFS backed to suppressed garbage for next weekend. Model is a joke more than five days out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 14, 2016 Report Share Posted January 14, 2016 GFS backed to suppressed garbage for next weekend. Model is a joke more than five days out.I am afraid the 2 viable scenarios are what the GFS is showing. Supressed junk with limited cold sector precip. Or a cutter with questionable temps... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 14, 2016 Report Share Posted January 14, 2016 GFS backed to suppressed garbage for next weekend. Model is a joke more than five days out.It prolly will be suppressed with that big H. Been showing this quite a bit the last few days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted January 14, 2016 Report Share Posted January 14, 2016 GFS keeps everything suppressed. Looking good for OKwx2k4 though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 14, 2016 Report Share Posted January 14, 2016 This would make for an interesting solution http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016011412/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_10.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 14, 2016 Report Share Posted January 14, 2016 As I sit here in Central Nebraska with a front on the door step and nothing else. What a frustrating winter so far. Don't know what I was expecting but more than this. I really am hoping for changes going into Feb. and March. The snow we had is pretty much gone except piles and shaded areas. It actually hit the lower 50's yesterday and 60 to our west. Southern and parts of Central Nebraska really have had very little snow. Bummed but hoping for better times, what else can I do? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 14, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 14, 2016 This would make for an interesting solution With an active subtropical jet this isn't very likely to play out. The EURO has shown a couple other cut off lows this winter in the 10 day range, but they haven't come true.This is something that is common in late Spring. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted January 14, 2016 Report Share Posted January 14, 2016 As I sit here in Central Nebraska with a front on the door step and nothing else. What a frustrating winter so far. Don't know what I was expecting but more than this. I really am hoping for changes going into Feb. and March. The snow we had is pretty much gone except piles and shaded areas. It actually hit the lower 50's yesterday and 60 to our west. Southern and parts of Central Nebraska really have had very little snow. Bummed but hoping for better times, what else can I do?Think if you lived in Boston. You go from 108 inches last year to 1.2 so far. East coast has been a nightmare for snow lovers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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