gosaints Posted January 18, 2016 Report Share Posted January 18, 2016 I'm game!Will the boston magnet turn on?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted January 18, 2016 Report Share Posted January 18, 2016 Will the boston magnet turn on?? How do we turn on the Wisconsin magnet? Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 18, 2016 Report Share Posted January 18, 2016 Road Trip??? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016011806/gfs_asnow_us_41.pngBoston has had an incredible run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 18, 2016 Report Share Posted January 18, 2016 I should go visit my parents in the northeast. Lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 18, 2016 Report Share Posted January 18, 2016 Cant imagine model watching that for the next 100+hours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowa2015 Posted January 18, 2016 Report Share Posted January 18, 2016 Last time the modals predicted those insane crazy snow totals it ended up being quite abit less by the time it was all said & done. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 18, 2016 Report Share Posted January 18, 2016 Last time the modals predicted those insane crazy snow totals it ended up being quite abit less by the time it was all said & done.Of course 30 inches is probably to high but someone from DC to boston is going to get hammered Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 18, 2016 Report Share Posted January 18, 2016 12z GFS really backed down on warm temps from I35 eastward. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 18, 2016 Report Share Posted January 18, 2016 12z GFS really backed down on warm temps from I35 eastward.+PNA. Pretty much normal temps. Good luck with any significant storms. Nightime lows probably put us safely above normal Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 19, 2016 Report Share Posted January 19, 2016 East coast looks like potentially getting pounded with storm after storm. Next week after the big one this upcoming weekend, more snowstorms to follow. Now, that's sweet. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 19, 2016 Report Share Posted January 19, 2016 Huge fight going on in the Day 5-15 range between the Euro/GFS/GGEM at 500mb...interestingly, the GFS op runs don't have the AO/NAO stay positive but the Euro does after the 22nd. I've seen the GFS win this battle before, but will the Euro score a coupe this time??? Tonight's Euro Weeklies try to relax the PNA towards the end of the month and so does GEFS. The part of the LRC which brought storms into the Southwest will start to show during the last week of the month. I think during this last week of January is when the central CONUS may turn stormy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 19, 2016 Report Share Posted January 19, 2016 Dr. Judah Cohen made some interesting comments in his AO Blog today. Here was one of the main highlights: The perturbation of the polar vortex is likely to dominate the evolution of the temperature variability across the NH for the duration of winter. The expected SSW should favor for much of February and even into March a negative AO, and relatively cold temperatures for the NH mid-latitude continents. With the models predicting the PV to move into northern Eurasia we are most confident of the cold close in proximity with the position of the PV. More uncertainty exists across North America as the flow around the PV continues to shift from westerly (warm) to northerly (cold) and now easterly. During next weeks SSW event, I think during this period we may find some interesting weather around the Plains/Midwest/Lakes region as the pattern along the EC relaxes away from the troughiness. Once we roll into February, based on what Dr. Cohen has been stating, the AO should flip back negative and stay that way for a long period. The Euro may be having trouble figuring out what to do with the AO in part of what is happening in the stratosphere. What happens over the next 10 days will be critical to see if Winter holds on through Feb and into March. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 19, 2016 Report Share Posted January 19, 2016 Make or break time.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 19, 2016 Report Share Posted January 19, 2016 Be good to us winter give us a nice negative NAO/AO. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 19, 2016 Report Share Posted January 19, 2016 Be good to us winter give us a nice negative NAO/AO.you should really be talking to the pacific.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 19, 2016 Report Share Posted January 19, 2016 Make or break time.... What do you think? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 19, 2016 Report Share Posted January 19, 2016 you should really be talking to the pacific....anything is better than what weve had so far and atm a negative NAO/AO seems the most likely to materialize out of all the cold patterns Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 19, 2016 Report Share Posted January 19, 2016 anything is better than what weve had so far and atm a negative NAO/AO seems the most likely to materialize out of all the cold patterns As long as the AO/NAO don't stay positive when the "wet" part of the LRC returns later this month and into Feb, I think it will be favorable for wintry storms. The jet also tends to "loose" its energy as we head into Feb (although this year it may not relax till late in Feb due to its strong state this year) which should benefit better phasing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 19, 2016 Report Share Posted January 19, 2016 It's a little more than a week out, but the 00z GFS might be sniffing out on a strong storm that forms in the deep south in TX that tracks through the Texarkana region. This storm fits the 30-day cycle when Blizzard warnings were issued in NM/TX/OK back on Dec 26th/27th. @ OKC, this may be your storm finally as it would correlate quite well with what happened in late December when there wasn't much cold air around. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 19, 2016 Report Share Posted January 19, 2016 Move that north a bit please. Just as some insurance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 19, 2016 Report Share Posted January 19, 2016 Actually, just looked back at my notes and this would fit the LRC cycle as well. Way back in Oct 19th-22nd during LRC cycle #1, there was a cut-off low in the 4 corners region that ejected out into the Plains that had tons of GOM influence. This was the beginning of the very "wet" pattern that started in late October. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 19, 2016 Report Share Posted January 19, 2016 Holy blizzard to open Feb on the GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted January 19, 2016 Report Share Posted January 19, 2016 It's a little more than a week out, but the 00z GFS might be sniffing out on a strong storm that forms in the deep south in TX that tracks through the Texarkana region. This storm fits the 30-day cycle when Blizzard warnings were issued in NM/TX/OK back on Dec 26th/27th. @ OKC, this may be your storm finally as it would correlate quite well with what happened in late December when there wasn't much cold air around.Man, I'm hoping. I'd be happy with just my average snow this winter. As you mentioned above also, this storm has cycled 3 times at this point. All with negative/neutral PNA or no AO help. +PNA would fit that setup also. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 19, 2016 Report Share Posted January 19, 2016 Holy snow on the 0z gfs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowa2015 Posted January 19, 2016 Report Share Posted January 19, 2016 It's way off in la la land well over 300 hrs from now by the time Feb it be 60 plus & rain storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 19, 2016 Report Share Posted January 19, 2016 How can you have a 30 day cycle and a 50 day cycle and proclaim both to fit the pattern? By the very time definition they would contradict each other. I'm a skeptic of the LRC. I just haven't seen enough evidence of it actually panning out. I think it is intriguing but I have tested it out on numerous occasions and it just doesn't seem to be reliable. The weather is simply too variable. Even if a handful of atmospheric conditions cycle, there are so many other ones that don't or just change. I'll keep paying attention to it and maybe I'll be proven wrong but as of now I don't buy either the 30 day cycle or LRC to be reliable methods. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 19, 2016 Report Share Posted January 19, 2016 How can you have a 30 day cycle and a 50 day cycle and proclaim both to fit the pattern? By the very time definition they would contradict each other. I'm a skeptic of the LRC. I just haven't seen enough evidence of it actually panning out. I think it is intriguing but I have tested it out on numerous occasions and it just doesn't seem to be reliable. The weather is simply too variable. Even if a handful of atmospheric conditions cycle, there are so many other ones that don't or just change. I'll keep paying attention to it and maybe I'll be proven wrong but as of now I don't buy either the 30 day cycle or LRC to be reliable methods.There are.waves moving across the country almost daily this year. It could fit any cycle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 19, 2016 Report Share Posted January 19, 2016 How can you have a 30 day cycle and a 50 day cycle and proclaim both to fit the pattern? By the very time definition they would contradict each other. I'm a skeptic of the LRC. I just haven't seen enough evidence of it actually panning out. I think it is intriguing but I have tested it out on numerous occasions and it just doesn't seem to be reliable. The weather is simply too variable. Even if a handful of atmospheric conditions cycle, there are so many other ones that don't or just change. I'll keep paying attention to it and maybe I'll be proven wrong but as of now I don't buy either the 30 day cycle or LRC to be reliable methods.Earlier in this discussion I commented about this. You can go look back and check it out. The basic theory works in both cycles, however, as you move along deeper into Winter the jet strengthens and features within the LRC cycle have to be adjusted by your own "touch" taking into account blocking etc. I only found out about the 30-day cycle this year. When the larger storm systems began developing in late Oct I made a conscious approach and wrote down the dates of each "larger" scale system. Within the LRC, there are larger and smaller storm systems that overlap in the 30-day cycle almost to the exact date! It's amazing to see and I believe it ain't no coincidence. Try it out and look for yourself. This is just my own research I found in understanding both cycles simultaneously and I'm learning more about them. Next year I'll have to test this theory out again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 19, 2016 Report Share Posted January 19, 2016 The only good thing about that EC storm is that this side of the lake could see several hours of LES. Models have been showing this the past few days. It probably won't amount to much but at least flakes will be flying. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 19, 2016 Report Share Posted January 19, 2016 The only good thing about that EC storm is that this side of the lake could see several hours of LES. Models have been showing this the past few days. It probably won't amount to much but at least flakes will be flying.Curious to see how much, if any, can accumulate. It certainly will be cold enough and the fetch down the lake should be as good as you could ask for. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 19, 2016 Report Share Posted January 19, 2016 As we get closer maybe Geos can look at this setup and see how favorable it looks for the area. Just looking at the surface maps it looks decent but not sure about the rest of the details. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 19, 2016 Report Share Posted January 19, 2016 LOL GGEM dumps 48 inches somewhere in PA Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 19, 2016 Report Share Posted January 19, 2016 Wow east coast gets blasted! Better then our whole winter in one storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 19, 2016 Report Share Posted January 19, 2016 EURO says wait a minute for those north of the Mason Dixon line. I'm sure there is a lot of head scratching going on right about now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 19, 2016 Report Share Posted January 19, 2016 EURO says wait a minute for those north of the Mason Dixon line. I'm sure there is a lot of head scratching going on right about now.If I was in DC I would love the EURO sitting where it is right now. Betting on a classic over trend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 19, 2016 Report Share Posted January 19, 2016 EURO says wait a minute for those north of the Mason Dixon line. I'm sure there is a lot of head scratching going on right about now.And it still shows 3 feet in virginia so its not like the storm went away 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 19, 2016 Report Share Posted January 19, 2016 If I was in DC I would love the EURO sitting where it is right now. Betting on a classic over trend.DC and Viginia would be shut down if this happened. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 19, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 19, 2016 Holy blizzard to open Feb on the GFS I know the storm is still there! Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 19, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 19, 2016 Holy snow on the 0z gfs And on the 18z GFS. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 20, 2016 Report Share Posted January 20, 2016 And on the 18z GFS. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160119/18Z/f384/acckucherasnowmw.pngStay there and shift about 100 miles northwest 24 hours before event please....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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