Money Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 Ha. GGEM and UKMET says the east coast does it again early-mid next week http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/ggem/20160123/12Z/f144/24hkucherasnowconus.png Another 12-18 inch snowstorm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowa2015 Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 Give me one 40 + inch Snow storm over a couple day + period I won't care where rest of the storms track this winter. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 Give me one 40 + inch Snow storm over a couple day + period I won't care where rest of the storms track this winter. That's not asking for much considering I don't think anyone in the MW ever got 40 inches of snow from a storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 12z GFS Ensemble Mean http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016012312/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_45.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 HR 240 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016012312/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_41.png Once again, ridiculous consistency this far out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 I could see this ending up being a 1st wave that producing over-running snows, then the storm develops in the southern Plains tracking towards the Lakes with a 1 - 2 punch. Long duration event on the table who ever finds themselves in the jackpot zone. Not to mention, Lehs in WI and maybe IL if the track shifts SE. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowa2015 Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 I'm sure that's what they saying right about now in Washington dc Possible 18 + next week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 Looks like Baltimore and the capital will end up with less than what was forecasted. Philly and NYC might end up with more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 Onto the 12z Euro... Looks like Baltimore and the capital will end up with less than what was forecasted. Philly and NYC might end up with more.Talk about a last minute shift or shaft rather...lol...still though, DC has over 2Ft so can't complain there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 I'm sure that's what they saying right about now in Washington dc Possible 18 + next week. The east coast has a much higher chance of getting big storms because of the Atlantic ocean. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 Onto the 12z Euro... Talk about a last minute shift or shaft rather...lol...still though, DC has over 2Ft so can't complain there. How the individual GFS ensembles look? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 Pre Feb 1st storm: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160123/06Z/f216/acckucherasnowmw.png Post Feb 2nd/3rd storm http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160123/06Z/f288/acckucherasnowmw.pngThat would be the craziest week we have seen around here in over 50 years. That is what we would see in a season! Like I said before, it always seems like we see large storm systems on the coast followed by another monster in the plains/great lakes. It's amazing to see the consistency; gonna be a fun ride boys!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 Places in the Blue Ridge are over 40" already. That actually sounds fairly miserable to me honestly. Two feet would be my limit. After that you can have it. On to the EURO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 I could see this ending up being a 1st wave that producing over-running snows, then the storm develops in the southern Plains tracking towards the Lakes with a 1 - 2 punch. Long duration event on the table who ever finds themselves in the jackpot zone. Not to mention, Lehs in WI and maybe IL if the track shifts SE.Yup only way the high totals verify Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 euro is 988 over Dodge City, KS with a 1011 MB south canadian high Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 sounds similar low placement as gfs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160123/12Z/f192/sfcmslpconus.png http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160123/12Z/f192/850mbtempsconus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160123/12Z/f216/500mbheightsmslpconus.png http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160123/12Z/f216/850mbtempsconus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 Looks very warm ahead of it for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 euro is disgusting all the way through Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 Big difference is that northern stream clipper up in central/southern Canada at HR 192. That blocks the high from building south and allowing the storm to go north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 sounds similar low placement as gfsI might lose it if we get rain from this. My parents might break 30" with this storm and then more next week while we get rain here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 glad it still shows a storm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 Euro is a terrible model especially this far out. No reason to look at it even if it showed a blizzard Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 Here is GFS at HR 192 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160123/12Z/f192/sfcconus.png Note how far south that northern stream is and look at how far south the high pressure is already compared to EURO. Both show a storm but that's going to be the key to this storm and how far south or north it tracks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 Big difference is that northern stream clipper up in central/southern Canada at HR 192. That blocks the high from building south and allowing the storm to go north.exactly, as soon as I saw the high was weaker I had a hint that we may be in trouble, the high built too little too late Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 exactly, as soon as I saw the high was weaker I had a hint that we may be in trouble, the high built too little too late The storm also developed a lot quicker on the euro compared to GFS. GFS really didn't eject out until about 24 hours later than the euro. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 Euro is a terrible model especially this far out. No reason to look at it even if it showed a blizzardThe GFS/NAM did pretty good with the east coast storm today. The Euro pretty much bowed to it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 This winter has not favored the Euro, the GFS has done fairly well... 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 I would favor GFS right now (not cuz its showing most of us getting blasted).......but its done better than the Euro this winter. The updates they did to that model have seemed to work well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 The gfs has performed quite well in this time frame. Twc said the gfs was the first to pickup on Jonas, while the euro lagged behind Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 The gfs has performed quite well in this time frame. Twc said the gfs was the first to pickup on Jonas, while the euro lagged behindThe GFS and the NAM were they two models that picked up on the north trend that put places like NYC into the 24+ range when they were getting around 4" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 The 12z Euro run was extremely disorganized and doesn't make sense to me. It has various pieces of energy scattered around and doesn't bundle up the energy like the GFS. The Euro has had to much low pressure in western Canada in previous runs and is now showing more HP. Check out the 12z run from today...compare it to last night...you can see the lower heights on the 12z run near the Yukon (not supposed to happen). Also, the Euro from run to run,is starting to increase HP in the NE PAC which I expected to see given the nature of the models error handling the warm waters off the NW NAMER coast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 On the Day 10 12z Euro run today, check out how much more HP is centered in western/southern Canada and compare it to last night. More importantly, the Euro likes to drag its feet and leaving energy behind in the southwest to long. Last night it had more energy ejected out quicker but not enough HP in Canada. Now, imagine if today's run had the energy all come out at once with all that blocking to the north! You wouldn't have the kind of separation of energy and the storm wouldn't ride into the northern Plains. Instead, the storm should eject out near the TX Panhandle where this storm should be tracking. That's why I believe in the LRC being a good tool to forecast tracks and figuring out which model may be right or wrong 5-10 days out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 I also feel the models are "feeling" some effects of the massive energy transfer going on from the troposphere to the stratosphere. The GFS has it beginning today through the end of the month. Dr. Judah Cohen has been talking a lot about this lately. Might be a reason why the models are seeing the EPO slide back towards neutral/negative territory. My theory has been watching what happens at 30mb 2-3 weeks before and notice the location where it blossoms. If you can see the image below, the blossoming occurs right over NW NAMER around Jan 10th which is EXACTLY where the heights will rise late next week! Coincidence??? I think not. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 00z EPS vs 12z EPS MSLP comparison...NE PAC heights rise even farther which results in a southerly shift in its ensemble. Let's see if how the entire run looks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 EPS control is much further west at this point with the main feature than the GFS http://i.imgur.com/KEPREqW.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 12z EPS shifted SE from 00z and has the mean SLP over Chicago on today's run comparing it to last night tracking through E IA. Today's 12z EPS run would be almost identical to what happened in LRC cycle #2. Interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 Some of the Euro members... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 We need a massive south shift. Thank goodness it's still over a week out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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