Winter Medium to Long Range Discussion; 5+ days out

[Tom]

JMA Weeklies signing a stormy tune for the month of March.  -EPO/-AO signal on average through the entire month.  A very wet/sub normal temp pattern is being forecast from the Plains on East.  As the seasonal jet weakens, blocking develops over the pole, I would expect to see systems track slower and have more potential to dig into stronger storm systems.  I think there will be many locations that will end up above normal in the snowfall dept for the month of March.

 

Meanwhile, 06z GFS came north with the axis of heavy snow...expect fluctuations this far out, nonetheless, another potential big dog on the horizon.  Yet again, GFS has been scary consistent showing this storm run to run while Euro playing catch up.

 

00z EPS showing a similar track to the 00z Euro Operational.  

 

 

[hlcater]

12z GFS is in Minnesota this run. (Axis of heavy snow)

[Tom]

00z FIM-9...

[gosaints]

If its a big dog I like MSP to central northern WI

[hlcater]

Another model in Minnesota, anyone have the GGEM pivotal is slow.

[gosaints]

Another model in Minnesota, anyone have the GGEM pivotal is slow.

From what I can see the GGEM is a weak turd of a frontal passage.  Wouldnt worry about the GGEM in this timeframe.  People say the EURO has been bad but the GGEM is god awful in the medium range

[Geos]

GEM has lost it. 

Onto the EURO now.

 

DGEX had this at 6z

 

If the AO could drop sooner, I think this will be south like ^ again.

 

[gosaints]

oh good the dgex...

 

i doubt another storm could whiff geos's backyard

[Tony]

My early thinking on this is nothing will come of this or at least nothing for our area. Also, the Sunday-Monday system from a few days ago looked really good and look at it now...down to nadda. Just the way this winter has been and don't expect it to change.

 

March is upon us and so is HS baseball for my son and would like for them to be able to be outdoors but again I know better then to expect that around these parts. If a storm does come then make it BIG as who really cares about a nuissance event like yesterday.

[Geos]

My early thinking on this is nothing will come of this or at least nothing for our area. Also, the Sunday-Monday system from a few days ago looked really good and look at it now...down to nadda. Just the way this winter has been and don't expect it to change.

 

March is upon us and so is HS baseball for my son and would like for them to be able to be outdoors but again I know better then to expect that around these parts. If a storm does come then make it BIG as who really cares about a nuissance event like yesterday.

 

If the LRC is onto something then the system will want to come back to a similar track - like the November 20-21st storm. Don't break out the baseball glove just yet. El Niño spring's are usually slow to start. After the super nino of 97-98 there was a 8-10" snowstorm the first week of the month.

That southern jet stream has to come back north sometime. 

Just so everyone is prepared~

[Geos]

This PNA signal should help carve out a trough in the Great Lakes early next week.

 

[Tom]

If the LRC is onto something then the system will want to come back to a similar track - like the November 20-21st storm. Don't break out the baseball glove just yet. El Niño spring's are usually slow to start. After the super nino of 97-98 there was a 8-10" snowstorm the first week of the month.

That southern jet stream has to come back north sometime. 

Just so everyone is prepared~

Especially when you look at the JMA Weelies/LRC and El Nino March analogs, Winter isn't over for quite some time if your near the Midwest/Lakes region.  The plains will have their bouts of very warm temp spikes like they have all season long.

[GDR]

Push it north!!

[Geos]

GEFS south of operational and in surprisingly close agreement.

 

 

Will start a thread right after I see the EURO.

[Geos]

EURO likes south. Nice strong high, good low position.

 

[GDR]

I'm ready for spring

[Geos]

Goes negative tilt and stays south of this area.

 

 

 

Band of 12-20" from N IL into MI. 6-10" in the southeastern 1/2 of Iowa.

 

Going to be a huge run up here. Colder.

 

[jaster220]

I'm ready for spring

 

We get that GDR. Before actually scoring this snowstorm so was I

[Tom]

12z Euro...each run catching up to a better phase...

[jaster220]

Goes negative tilt and stays south of this area.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160225/12Z/f144/sfcmslpconus.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016022512/ecmwf_T850_ncus_7.png

 

Band of 12-20" from N IL into MI. 6-10" in the southeastern 1/2 of Iowa.

 

Going to be a huge run up here. Colder.

 

 

Now maybe WOOF WOOF time for a bunch of us, eh GEOS?

[Tom]

12z Euro has 3 storms next week each 1.5 days apart hitting the Midwest/Lakes...lol...snowmagedon???  Time to look for flights back home???

[indianajohn]

This reminds me of GHD blizzard. If I remember correctly models were showing that storm 7 days out. I recall it spitting out 30" totals in some parts. 

[Geos]

Now maybe WOOF WOOF time for a bunch of us, eh GEOS?

 

Yeah this is a big dog. Time for a thread.

 

 

GDR. One more storm and then you can have your spring. 

[Tom]

12z Euro...next 10 days...subtract .10-.50qpf in MI from the Sun system bc it'll be mostly rain...

[Niko]

12z Euro has 3 storms next week each 1.5 days apart hitting the Midwest/Lakes...lol...snowmagedon???  Time to look for flights back home???

[Geos]

Started -

 

theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1220-march-1st-2nd-plains-to-great-lakes-snowstormblizzard/

 

Looks like a glacier on the EURO!^

[Tony]

Now that Euro is on board everyone is jumping for joy. It has not done that well 5+ days out so I would temper my excitement. It does have the GFS on it's side but farther north so at least it has a friend.

[earthandturf]

Give me two weeks of snow to plow and then we can start spring. Headed to Arizona on the 16th, so I hope it doesn't snow then.

[Tom]

Now that Euro is on board everyone is jumping for joy. It has not done that well 5+ days out so I would temper my excitement. It does have the GFS on it's side but farther north so at least it has a friend.

Climo would favor a north track but this year has been far from normal. I'm just glad to see the Euro finally show a phased storm. All the ensembles show a storm through C IL.

[Geos]

Now that Euro is on board everyone is jumping for joy. It has not done that well 5+ days out so I would temper my excitement. It does have the GFS on it's side but farther north so at least it has a friend.

 

It handled this departing storm pretty well from 5 days and under. Only 105 hours before the low kicks out in Colorado.

 

This was the EURO 5 days out for this past storm. That low position is less than 50 miles from reality. Right now I feel pretty good the lower lakes will get hit.

 

[gosaints]

Looks like february continues the string of above average months.  September through february.  March has a chacne to break the string I think...

 

Looks like some record highs could be in trouble this weekend...

[Tom]

This reminds me of GHD blizzard. If I remember correctly models were showing that storm 7 days out. I recall it spitting out 30" totals in some parts. 

How much did you end up getting from the recent Blitz???

[indianajohn]

8-9" would be fair guess too much drifting to get an accurate measurement. I do have 3ft drifts around my house LOL!!

[jaster220]

8-9" would be fair guess too much drifting to get an accurate measurement. I do have 3ft drifts around my house LOL!!

 

Despite the wetness of the first 2/3rds of the system, that Lehs band that formed overnight was much more normal and drifted good. 2nd snow day here in Marshall. There's some large fields around Marshall and where I-94 and I-69 junction. With a NW wind, you get a good fetch across the field and a drop-off of terrain at the hwy right-of-way. Those drifts are easily 6-8 foot!  I'm a huge fan of drifts, so it was fantastic to see all the drifts after work yesterday / last night.

[gosaints]

Looking more and more like only areas with sold snowpack see any extended below normal temps

[Tom]

The next 2 weeks have storms every 1-2 days on the EPS over the last 3-4 runs.  Plains/Lakes look very active and some members showing big winter storms.  March climo showing itself.  Where was this in Dec-Feb???  Doh!

[gosaints]

The next 2 weeks have storms every 1-2 days on the EPS over the last 3-4 runs.  Plains/Lakes look very active and some members showing big winter storms.  March climo showing itself.  Where was this in Dec-Feb???  Doh!

Ehhhhh.... the GFS is very blah the next week or so.  Unless of course you enjoy the 50's in the near term.

 

The GFS does drop an inch on some of us in the next 350 hours so that is exciting at least

[Tom]

12z Euro still showing 3 systems in a row next week...Tue/Wed...Thu/Fri...Sat/Sun...temps have cooled off in the 5-7 day range after the 1 storm departs near the Midwest/Lakes region.

[Tony]

12z Euro still showing 3 systems in a row next week...Tue/Wed...Thu/Fri...Sat/Sun...temps have cooled off in the 5-7 day range after the 1 storm departs near the Midwest/Lakes region.

Just curious to know where these storms are setting up for late next week

[Hawkeye]

Gotta love that big torch on the euro by day 9/10.  I always get excited about possible warmth as we head into met spring.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016022700/ecmwf_T850_us_11.png