bainbridgekid Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 Low is over Shreveport. Heading east of all guidance. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s19/pmsl/pmsl.gif?1451280776692Definitely seems to be, but it could be a bit misleading since it's also becoming somewhat elongated to the West of the low. Still like seeing the low where it is on there since most models had it barely missing the NW corner of Louisiana. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 Definitely seems to be, but it could be a bit misleading since it's also becoming somewhat elongated to the West of the low. Still like seeing the low where it is on there since most models had it barely missing the NW corner of Louisiana. Nice banana-ing out of the high in Nebraska. Would be something if the low passed near Pine Bluff, AR. Probably will be more like Little Rock or Hot Springs. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 What's your thought on Madison, geos? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 What's your thought on Madison, geos? 75-80% snow, 20-25% sleet.At least 6" of snow. --- Chicago Storm pointed this out to me on AMWX. Convection is pulling the SLP east into LA right now.Loop this and pay attention to the end of it. http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/analysis/surface/index.php?type=sgp-fronts-1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 What's your thought on Madison, geos?Not Geos but I think you should be in a pretty good spot. Temps are already in the upper 20's up there and most models show 1"+ of frozen QPF. Probably a dicey mix of snow to sleet to freezing rain and back to snow, but I'd have to imagine you'd most likely get some decent snow/sleet accumulations. Huge uncertainty though with the incredibly complex thermal profile. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 Euro looks alot like the ukie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 75-80% snow, 20-25% sleet.At least 6" of snow. --- Chicago Storm pointed this out to me on AMWX. Convection is pulling the SLP east into LA right now.Loop this and pay attention to the end of it. http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/analysis/surface/index.php?type=sgp-fronts-1Not to be that guy, but what are your thoughts on Red Wing, Minnesota (40 miles N of Rochester)? Also, sorry for my lack of concrete input, forgot my laptop over break and haven't been able to post much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 00Z Euro has sub 994 L very near Quincy,IL. some 75 miles further E then this time yday. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 WOOOOO GREAT EURO RUN! Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 Euro caves! Lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 Not to be that guy, but what are your thoughts on Red Wing, Minnesota (40 miles N of Rochester)? Also, sorry for my lack of concrete input, forgot my laptop over break and haven't been able to post much. Well, all snow for starters. Given the temperatures up there, you'll likely see double digits. Guessimate: 10"-14"I think the 7" put out by MPX is too conservative. Full Canadian snowfall map finally! Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 ^giddyup Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 Well, all snow for starters. Given the temperatures up there, you'll likely see double digits. Guessimate: 10"-14"You rock man, thanks! Hope my Nebraskans still do well, it's hard to tell without access to all the models. If someone can post the EURO snowfall maps that'd be awesome! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 Poor Jim Flowers 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 I'll be lucky to see 2" if it's that much further east. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 SLP jumped NE in the last hour. Flirting with freezing now. 32.7°. Wind getting stronger. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 Flowers quote: Euro is in and has 2"...it has taken the heaviest snow almost east of Des Moines! The consistency shown from last Tuesday is gone 12 hrs before it's supposed to start....wow. Time to watch satellite trends to see if models are correct. Short range hires still has around 8". 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 Heavy sleet here in KC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 27 atm here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 Not to be that guy, but what are your thoughts on Red Wing, Minnesota (40 miles N of Rochester)? Also, sorry for my lack of concrete input, forgot my laptop over break and haven't been able to post much.I think it'll be close for you for getting the really heavy amounts. Should be plenty cold enough for all snow but the heaviest axis of snow will likely be to your SE. I bet you get 8-12" so should be a real nice storm. Definitely an annoying amount of uncertainty for less than 24 hours out though. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 I think it'll be close for you for getting the really heavy amounts. Should be plenty cold enough for all snow but the heaviest axis of snow will likely be to your SE. I bet you get 8-12" so should be a real nice storm. Definitely an annoying amount of uncertainty for less than 24 hours out though. Heard that. It's crazy how all the models are everywhere yet. I know most hated the NAM, but it gives me 24-27". MPX mentions 15:1 ratios and 3" hour snowfall rates. Hoping the NAM somehow comes to fruition, would be one for the books if it came true. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 Anyone have euro snow maps? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 Euro shifted WAY east with snow placement. Probably 200 miles on the heaviest band of snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 Canadian Hi-Res http://models.weatherbell.com/cmc/2015122800/iowa/hrdps_snow_iowa_37.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 Euro http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2015122800/mw/ecmwf_tsnow_mw_11.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 12z Euro - http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2015122712/mw/ecmwf_tsnow_mw_13.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 King Euro is dethroned. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 EURO 8-10" imby on weatherbell clown maps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 Canadian Hi-Res If it shows 13" for Rockford, how much does it have here? You don't have to post the map, just look in the very NE corner of IL. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 Hrrr coming in colder again Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 EURO 8-10" imby on weatherbell clown maps. Gotta love that little backward "J" tail! EURO showing KC a little snow love. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 Going to love the afd out of mkx Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 Euro actually shows a couple inches of snow for Chicago. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 Reminder on the Euro--- it busted very bad within 12 hours on the Mid-NOV snow event in IA. Heaviest band was nearly 100 miles S of where the Euro thought only 12hours out--- -- and Jim Flowers-- he should know more then anybody that Mother Nature will do whatever it can to make a fool of you when you try to predict it. Now watch the heaviest snow set up in his backyard and make a fool of me!! 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 Flowers quote: And as most of us said earlier...THAT'S why you don't rely on just one model run and throw everything out. My oh my...some of those viewers went to bed and will be sad when they wake up. And I feel worse for the businesses that relied on his forecast alone---if it does indeed bust. I just hope that his channel or he, himself, were on air hinting at the possibility of a miss. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 Please oh please, let the Euro be my hero! DSM numbers from 0z Euro:MON 06Z 28-DEC -5.1 -4.6 1030 62 1 0.00 565 541 MON 12Z 28-DEC -2.9 -5.1 1021 73 100 0.05 560 543 MON 18Z 28-DEC -3.5 -6.5 1013 91 98 0.41 555 545 TUE 00Z 29-DEC -3.1 -7.2 1005 91 100 0.65 546 543 TUE 06Z 29-DEC -3.6 -7.5 1006 89 88 0.28 547 542 TUE 12Z 29-DEC -7.3 -9.9 1014 87 60 0.04 550 539 TUE 18Z 29-DEC -6.5 -8.6 1021 85 31 0.00 555 539 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 MSN numbers please Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 Please oh please, let the Euro be my hero! DSM numbers from 0z Euro:MON 06Z 28-DEC -5.1 -4.6 1030 62 1 0.00 565 541 MON 12Z 28-DEC -2.9 -5.1 1021 73 100 0.05 560 543 MON 18Z 28-DEC -3.5 -6.5 1013 91 98 0.41 555 545 TUE 00Z 29-DEC -3.1 -7.2 1005 91 100 0.65 546 543 TUE 06Z 29-DEC -3.6 -7.5 1006 89 88 0.28 547 542 TUE 12Z 29-DEC -7.3 -9.9 1014 87 60 0.04 550 539 TUE 18Z 29-DEC -6.5 -8.6 1021 85 31 0.00 555 539 The euro doesnt just spit out cold sector qpf like that everyday 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 MSN:MON 06Z 28-DEC -2.5 -5.1 1032 65 13 0.00 567 543 MON 12Z 28-DEC -2.2 -2.7 1028 63 35 0.00 564 542 MON 18Z 28-DEC -2.6 -5.0 1021 78 100 0.23 561 545 TUE 00Z 29-DEC -2.6 -5.5 1007 89 99 0.61 553 548 TUE 06Z 29-DEC -1.4 -3.7 1002 91 60 0.38 536 535 TUE 12Z 29-DEC -1.2 -2.8 1005 93 51 0.03 548 543 TUE 18Z 29-DEC -1.8 -6.9 1014 83 59 0.03 553 542 WED 00Z 30-DEC -1.9 -9.3 1019 90 23 0.00 556 541 IOW:MON 06Z 28-DEC -1.0 -2.8 1028 62 7 0.00 566 544 MON 12Z 28-DEC -1.4 -2.5 1021 80 100 0.18 563 546 MON 18Z 28-DEC -1.7 -4.9 1012 88 100 0.73 558 549 TUE 00Z 29-DEC -0.5 -3.8 1000 91 89 0.79 544 544 TUE 06Z 29-DEC -1.0 -2.1 1000 91 71 0.13 546 546 TUE 12Z 29-DEC -3.2 -6.8 1010 89 80 0.02 550 542 TUE 18Z 29-DEC -5.4 -6.8 1018 86 19 0.00 556 542 DBQ:MON 06Z 28-DEC -1.8 -2.3 1030 60 6 0.00 567 543 MON 12Z 28-DEC -1.6 -2.4 1024 65 90 0.02 563 544 MON 18Z 28-DEC -2.7 -3.5 1016 89 99 0.58 559 547 TUE 00Z 29-DEC -1.9 -4.7 1003 89 80 0.63 548 546 TUE 06Z 29-DEC -1.4 -2.9 1000 90 96 0.32 542 541 TUE 12Z 29-DEC -2.0 -5.5 1008 91 95 0.03 549 543 TUE 18Z 29-DEC -1.8 -7.0 1015 82 36 0.01 554 542 Remember....the warm layer is between 700 and 850mb so keep that in mind when looking at numbers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 28, 2015 Report Share Posted December 28, 2015 Looks like about 5" of snow from the EURO here. I read that the EURO dropped the 850mb temps in NE IL by a couple degrees C. Thundersnow of AMWX posted this gif. http://gifmaker.cc/PlayGIFAnimation.php?folder=2015122712BETq2fU0h2TP9s30OLFpiG&file=output_79d6Fh.gif I would say everyone up to the NW corner of IL now, is probably going to have mainly snow. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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