Tom Posted December 29, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 29, 2015 Looks like mid Jan goes back above normal. Better hope we get something during the next two weeks or we might have to wait until end of Jan into Feb.Both GEFS/EPS show a major arctic attack by mid month following what should be a major storm before that. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted December 29, 2015 Report Share Posted December 29, 2015 Will need the pna to.relax Exactly, maybe we'll see some small powdery snow events with NW flow or cutters that track through the Eastern Lakes, but I'm not optimistic about more exciting cutters like this last one. Poor timing to have the drop of the AO and NAO coincide with a PNA spike. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted December 29, 2015 Report Share Posted December 29, 2015 Both GEFS/EPS show a major arctic attack by mid month following what should be a major storm before that.Really?http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015122818/gfs-ens_z500a_us_65.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted December 29, 2015 Report Share Posted December 29, 2015 oh boy, I don't know if I can handle this...http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2015122812/ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_11.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 29, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 29, 2015 Really?http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015122818/gfs-ens_z500a_us_65.pngReally... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 29, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 29, 2015 oh boy, I don't know if I can handle this...http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2015122812/ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_11.pngHope Santa brought you an extra hat and pair of gloves...your gonna need it...not a chance you will see a torch mid month with the entire Arctic torching and significant hemispheric blocking develops. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted December 29, 2015 Report Share Posted December 29, 2015 cool, doubt it verifies though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 29, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 29, 2015 Really?http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015122818/gfs-ens_z500a_us_65.pngExpand this to show all of North America and take notice what the 500mb pattern looks up near the Arctic and then tell me that is a warm pattern...you forgot to post the temp anomalies...this is NOT a warm signal and if a model and it's members are painting this much Blue this Far out...its a tell tale signal of an arctic attack. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015122818/gfs-ens_z500a_namer_65.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015122818/gfs-ens_T2ma_namer_65.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted December 29, 2015 Report Share Posted December 29, 2015 Meanwhile...http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/test8.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 29, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 29, 2015 Meanwhile...http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/test8.gifIndeed, the ridge builds in NW NAMER...can't wait to break out of the Nov-Dec hemispheric pattern...ridges south of Hudson Bay are normally not warm...they entail Canadian HP's that are cold...kinda like sneaky HP's Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 29, 2015 Report Share Posted December 29, 2015 Indeed, the ridge builds in NW NAMER...can't wait to break out of the Nov-Dec hemispheric pattern...ridges south of Hudson Bay are normally not warm...they entail Canadian HP's that are cold...kinda like sneaky HP'sYeah. They feed the cold underneath directly into storms that undercut the ridge also. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 29, 2015 Report Share Posted December 29, 2015 Maxim, are you waiting for a run of your CFS to torch for January before you'll post it again or what? Awful lot of blue on it the last couple of days. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted December 29, 2015 Report Share Posted December 29, 2015 Maxim, are you waiting for a run of your CFS to torch for January before you'll post it again or what? Awful lot of blue on it the last couple of days.Oh, so now the CFS is accurate? I remember you bashing on it not too long ago saying how it was a useless model. Yes, it has shown more blue the past couple of runs. It did the same back in September for the Oct forecast, but obviously didn't get it right. Also, I'm still waiting for my cold December. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 29, 2015 Report Share Posted December 29, 2015 Both GEFS/EPS show a major arctic attack by mid month following what should be a major storm before that.I hope you're right about the storm. Just have no confidence given what's transpired the last month. Would be nice to get a true winter storm and not this marginal set up crap. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted December 29, 2015 Report Share Posted December 29, 2015 It's gonna get cold and possibly snowy. The negative nellies will be proven wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted December 29, 2015 Report Share Posted December 29, 2015 It's gonna get cold and possibly snowy. The negative nellies will be proven wrong. It'll be typical winter feel, no doubt. Not sure if it will be even close to anomalously cold, and also not convinced yet that it will be an active pattern, maybe a couple weeks down the road though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 29, 2015 Report Share Posted December 29, 2015 Oh, so now the CFS is accurate? I remember you bashing on it not too long ago saying how it was a useless model. Yes, it has shown more blue the past couple of runs. It did the same back in September for the Oct forecast, but obviously didn't get it right. Also, I'm still waiting for my cold December.Didn't say it was accurate. Just noting that it never gets posted when there's not a red paint bomb on it over the US. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 29, 2015 Report Share Posted December 29, 2015 Both GEFS/EPS show a major arctic attack by mid month following what should be a major storm before that.Pretty much on cue, the GFS showing a storm over SW/TX through OK on day 9 or 10. Plenty of cold air for it to work with. May disappear in later runs but it's a good start. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 29, 2015 Report Share Posted December 29, 2015 This is a copy and paste post from Don Sutherland on AMWX. Thought it was a good one and worth sharing here. Long-Awaited Pattern Evolution Now Underway… The long-awaited pattern regime change from a persistent super ridge centered over eastern North America is now underway. The SOI has now fallen to -23.25 after peaking at +30.72 on December 24. The rate of decline in the ongoing super El Niño has shown some indications of picking up. The most recent weekly changes were as follows: Region 1+2: -0.3°C Region 3: -0.2°C Region 3.4: -0.2°C Region 4: -0.1°C In the larger scale, the kind of historic warmth that covered the eastern half of December during super El Niño events is typically unsustainable, not just in magnitude (otherwise that kind of warmth wouldn’t be such a rare event), but also in coverage. Even as the sample size is limited to two super El Niño cases (1877-78 and 1982-83), super warm winters for the entire December-February period are rare. Hence, with a degree of caution, one can argue that it is more likely than not that the warm anomalies should be expected to retreat to the northern tier (perhaps running from Montana or North Dakota to northern New England and northward) if the current ENSO event is reasonably similar to the two cases and the larger historical experience has relevance. The latest CFSv2 guidance shows just such an outcome. The ensembles have persistently been forecasting a return of the PNA+, which is a favored state when the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is positive. More recently, ensemble support for AO- and EPO- blocks has increased. The 12/28/2015 GFS ensembles now show strong agreement that the AO will be falling to negative values with a cluster of members supporting severely negative values during and after the first week in January. Even a few ensemble members support a negative NAO during the extended range. At this point, the guidance strongly supports the idea that a pattern evolution is now underway. There will likely be a short lag before the impact of the blocking takes hold on the hemispheric pattern. Before then, there will likely be a transitional pattern that lasts 1-2 weeks. During that transitional pattern, eastern North America will likely be much cooler than during December, even as readings average somewhat above normal in some of the areas that saw extraordinary warmth during December. There may yet be opportunities for systems to cut to the Great Lakes, producing short periods of much warmer than normal readings in the East. The West will generally remain colder than normal, but toward the end of the transitional period, a warming trend may begin to appear in the Pacific Northwest and northwestern Canada on account of the PNA+. What happens afterward will depend on whether the forecast blocking develops. The turnaround that occurred during winter 1965-66 when sustained blocking developed in late January could provide some insight. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted December 29, 2015 Report Share Posted December 29, 2015 Yep, there could be a big change coming mid January. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 29, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 29, 2015 Yep, there could be a big change coming mid January.Def coming whether ppl like it or not...pattern gets loaded after the 5th IMO...fun times!Euro Ensembles already starting to paint a snowy picture Day 7-15 from the Plains/Lakes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 29, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 29, 2015 Oh, so now the CFS is accurate? I remember you bashing on it not too long ago saying how it was a useless model. Yes, it has shown more blue the past couple of runs. It did the same back in September for the Oct forecast, but obviously didn't get it right. Also, I'm still waiting for my cold December.In the beginning of Sept it was certainly showing a colder Oct, but then started flipping warm...sorta what it is doing right now for the month of January. Here were the last 10 runs in Sept for the Oct target period... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201510.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 29, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 29, 2015 CFSv2 also seeing the potential arctic shot... http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images1/wk3.wk4_20151228.NAsfcT.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 29, 2015 Report Share Posted December 29, 2015 Good read above, thanks for posting that Okwx. Seems like a clipper pattern and weak wave events for at least a week. I'm hoping the juiced up southern branch will try to make a run to the north several times and mix with the cold air. GFS has the opening hours of January in the single digits around here. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 29, 2015 Report Share Posted December 29, 2015 Is it too much to ask for a clipper train? Probably, given the pattern, but man I would be down for a couple smaller storms that add some snowpack and cold air. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 29, 2015 Report Share Posted December 29, 2015 Is it too much to ask for a clipper train? Probably, given the pattern, but man I would be down for a couple smaller storms that add some snowpack and cold air. I find it very strange to see a cutter on the GFS next week. Given the -AO, +PNA and neutral NAO by that time -I would expect an eastward track towards PA. There is a clipper on the 12th. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 29, 2015 Report Share Posted December 29, 2015 I think this area has only ever benefited from like one clipper that I can ever remember. Hope to get another cutter or else it's just going to be cold and bone dry. Worst combination in my opinion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 29, 2015 Report Share Posted December 29, 2015 I keep waiting for a Colorado low. Been years. Clippers really do nothing for my location just dry and cold. Have been teased a lot this year but just minimal events at best. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 29, 2015 Report Share Posted December 29, 2015 No SE Ridge as depicted by some models would indicate a more favorable storm track for the east coast while we remain quite dry unless you live by the lakes. Pretty worried about that scenario. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 29, 2015 Report Share Posted December 29, 2015 I am too. Still early. If we do have big storms here, used to anyway, they are usually February March and April. Fearful that the storm track will be way south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 29, 2015 Report Share Posted December 29, 2015 Yeah I'm being pretty selfish when I say I want clippers, I guess I'm just so used to cashing in from those in my area that I forget they're really nice that great of storms except for a pretty narrow line of people. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 29, 2015 Report Share Posted December 29, 2015 I find it very strange to see a cutter on the GFS next week. Given the -AO, +PNA and neutral NAO by that time -I would expect an eastward track towards PA. There is a clipper on the 12th.I agree. That one won't cut like that. Pretty good call there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 29, 2015 Report Share Posted December 29, 2015 It is ok to be selfish eastdubzz, deep down we want the biggest storm for our area. One person's cashing in is usually bad for someone else. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 29, 2015 Report Share Posted December 29, 2015 It is ok to be selfish eastdubzz, deep down we want the biggest storm for our area. One person's cashing in is usually bad for someone else.Lol. That's true. Anyone who says otherwise is a liar or hates snow. Lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthandturf Posted December 29, 2015 Report Share Posted December 29, 2015 I plow and love clippers, much easier than the sleet crap I had to deal with today, it beat me up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 30, 2015 Report Share Posted December 30, 2015 GFS been showing something around 6-7th and another system a couple days later. See how this pans out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 30, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2015 The system showing up between the 8th-10th correlates with the LRC and was the one that dumped the heavy snow Nov 20-21st. It was a SLP that developed near KC and tracked E towards S IL/N OH. Coincidentally, the 30-day cycle also correlates with this system. I was doing some research and I was quite amazed how accurate both the 30-day and LRC cycle have been thus far this season. It's ironic that the same dynamic systems which have shown up within the LRC have also have an exact match within the 30-day cycle period. It's so fascinating to see how we can utilize both theories to predict storms in the future and know when the models are right or wrong. For example, in the LRC, we have had several significant storms that have set up within the pattern. 1) LRC storm on Oct 27-28th Remnants of Hurricane Patricia that tracked from the southern gulf states towards the Lakes. This storm also repeated in LRC cycle #2 on Dec 15th-16th (49-50days). For the 30-day cycle we saw this system repeat 2 separate times on Nov 26-27 (Thanksgiving week) and again just recently Dec 26-29. 2) LRC storm on Nov 11th-13th Dynamic storm developed in N KS and tracked northeast thru IA/WI producing a severe weather outbreak in the south and a blizzard to the NW. For the 30-day cycle, this system repeated on Dec 13-14 as a SLP developed near the TX Pan Handle and tracked thru KC/IA/WI. This was a moisture laden storm with a perfect trowal signature but it was too warm for any significant widespread wintry precip except for TX Pan Handle and W KS. 3) LRC storm on Nov 16th was another Dynamic storm that carved out a deep trough in the 4 corners region as SLP formed in E CO and tracked thru KS/IA/MN. This storm produced a Blizzard in CO/KS/NE. For the 30-day cycle we saw this system on Dec 15-16. You can see that these systems repeat quicker within the 30-day cycle because obviously its a shorter period as the LRC is between 48-52 days. The 30-day cycle had this storm as well on Nov 16-17. It's becoming very evident that we will have many more systems to track over the coming months. I counted at least 3-4 larger systems and 1-2 weaker ones within the pattern this month alone...not counting Clipper systems. Assuming all of the above are correct, over the coming 2 months we may be tracking up to 8-12 storms that may be of significance! Not a boring pattern to say the least. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 30, 2015 Report Share Posted December 30, 2015 The system showing up between the 8th-10th correlates with the LRC and was the one that dumped the heavy snow Nov 20-21st. It was a SLP that developed near KC and tracked E towards S IL/N OH. Coincidentally, the 30-day cycle also correlates with this system. I was doing some research and I was quite amazed how accurate both the 30-day and LRC cycle have been thus far this season. It's ironic that the same dynamic systems which have shown up within the LRC have also have an exact match within the 30-day cycle period. It's so fascinating to see how we can utilize both theories to predict storms in the future and know when the models are right or wrong.For example, in the LRC, we have had several significant storms that have set up within the pattern. 1) LRC storm on Oct 27-28th Remnants of Hurricane Patricia that tracked from the southern gulf states towards the Lakes. This storm also repeated in LRC cycle #2 on Dec 15th-16th (49-50days). For the 30-day cycle we saw this system repeat 2 separate times on Nov 26-27 (Thanksgiving week) and again just recently Dec 26-29. 2) LRC storm on Nov 11th-13th Dynamic storm developed in N KS and tracked northeast thru IA/WI producing a severe weather in the south and blizzard to the NW. For the 30-day cycle, this system repeated on Dec 13-14 as a SLP developed near the TX Pan Handle and tracked thru KC/IA/WI. This was a moisture laden storm with a perfect trowal signature but it was too warm for any significant widespread wintry precip except for TX Pan Handle and W KS. 3) LRC storm on Nov 16th was another Dynamic storm that carved out a deep trough in the 4 corners region as SLP formed in E CO and tracked thru KS/IA/MN. This storm produced a Blizzard in CO/KS/NE. For the 30-day cycle we saw this system on Dec 15-16. You can see that these systems repeat quicker within the 30-day cycle because obviously its a shorter period as the LRC is between 48-52 days. The 30-day cycle had this storm as well on Nov 16-17. It's becoming very evident that we will have many more systems to track over the coming months. I counted at least 3-4 larger systems and 1-2 weaker ones within the pattern this month alone...not counting Clipper systems. Assuming all of the above are correct, over the coming 2 months we may be tracking up to 8-12 storms that may be of significance! Not a boring pattern to say the least.Only thing to add to all of these excellent points is to keep in mind that while the pattern verifies, keep an eye on the indices and it will help you to verify where the next storm will track. There are east and west shifts within the same pattern. I'm grateful for being given a better explanation of this cycle since joining here. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 30, 2015 Report Share Posted December 30, 2015 The system showing up between the 8th-10th correlates with the LRC and was the one that dumped the heavy snow Nov 20-21st. It was a SLP that developed near KC and tracked E towards S IL/N OH. Coincidentally, the 30-day cycle also correlates with this system. I was doing some research and I was quite amazed how accurate both the 30-day and LRC cycle have been thus far this season. It's ironic that the same dynamic systems which have shown up within the LRC have also have an exact match within the 30-day cycle period. It's so fascinating to see how we can utilize both theories to predict storms in the future and know when the models are right or wrong.For example, in the LRC, we have had several significant storms that have set up within the pattern. 1) LRC storm on Oct 27-28th Remnants of Hurricane Patricia that tracked from the southern gulf states towards the Lakes. This storm also repeated in LRC cycle #2 on Dec 15th-16th (49-50days). For the 30-day cycle we saw this system repeat 2 separate times on Nov 26-27 (Thanksgiving week) and again just recently Dec 26-29. 2) LRC storm on Nov 11th-13th Dynamic storm developed in N KS and tracked northeast thru IA/WI producing a severe weather in the south and blizzard to the NW. For the 30-day cycle, this system repeated on Dec 13-14 as a SLP developed near the TX Pan Handle and tracked thru KC/IA/WI. This was a moisture laden storm with a perfect trowal signature but it was too warm for any significant widespread wintry precip except for TX Pan Handle and W KS. 3) LRC storm on Nov 16th was another Dynamic storm that carved out a deep trough in the 4 corners region as SLP formed in E CO and tracked thru KS/IA/MN. This storm produced a Blizzard in CO/KS/NE. For the 30-day cycle we saw this system on Dec 15-16. You can see that these systems repeat quicker within the 30-day cycle because obviously its a shorter period as the LRC is between 48-52 days. The 30-day cycle had this storm as well on Nov 16-17. It's becoming very evident that we will have many more systems to track over the coming months. I counted at least 3-4 larger systems and 1-2 weaker ones within the pattern this month alone...not counting Clipper systems. Assuming all of the above are correct, over the coming 2 months we may be tracking up to 8-12 storms that may be of significance! Not a boring pattern to say the least. It's cool that we have a 30 day cycle during an el Niño winter. If all those storms come around with cold air in the Midwest, will stay above normal in the snowfall department. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 30, 2015 Report Share Posted December 30, 2015 GFS has about 4-6 inches of snow for most areas in the subforum through hr 276 or so. Nothing major but at least it's showing something Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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