January 2016 in the PNW

[Jesse]

Strong correlation factor between the West getting favorable blocking and Jesse not paying attention. Hmm....

Pretty much!

[Deweydog]

I thought the NAM sucked?

[Timmy]

I didn't call your opinion about that event out, even though I disagree with your take on it, so don't do that to mine. There are plenty of us here who are interested in really cold temps. Nothing weird about it.

 

I'm done with the opinion wars, so either refrain from posts like this directed at me in the future, or just expect no response next time.

new years resolution?  wow, I am sorry for voicing my opinion then.

[Jesse]

new years resolution? wow, then I am sorry for voicing my opinion then.

Don't be. It's fine to do that. Just don't attack me for mine.

[Phil]

Jan 1950, SEA's snowiest and coldest month on record: neutral AO

Feb/Mar 1989, Back to back top-tier Arctic outbreaks in the West: very +AO

Jan 1957, very cold in the West: +AO

Dec 2008: +AO

Dec 1990, One of the greatest Western Arctic outbreaks on record: +AO

Jan 2007: +AO

1971-72, Very snowy/cold winter for the PNW: +AO

Dec 1972, One of the greatest Arctic outbreaks on record in December for the West Coast: +AO

Dec 1998, Major Western Arctic outbreak: +AO

 

I could go on...

You're illustrating my point. Notice that 7/9 of those cases occurred under La Niña/-AAM integrals, and 8/9 occurred under a N-HEM -AAM integral. Want to guess what the NAM relationship will look like under El Niño/+AAM integrals?

 

Hint: It has to do with the resulting variation(s) in energy exchange within the NPAC/NAM domains under active WAFs.

[Timmy]

Don't be. It's fine to do that. Just don't attack me for mine.

not an attack, I just was saying I don't like super cold temps.  an attack would be something like " you are ugly and your mother dresses you funny" but I digress.  You do seem to like really cold temps, and I don't and that is fine.  That is why I didn't like dec 2009 and you did.

[Front Ranger]

Quit looking at these meaningless "indexes" and start looking at the large scale wave-fields. There are cases where a +NAM is necessary/preferred, and there are cases where a -NAM is necessary/preferred.

 

 

 

Then what's with the adamant defense of that one index, the AO? Hashtags and whatnot?

 

The EPO is not the be all, end all for getting cold around here. It's simply a teleconnection index that corresponds to the amount of blocking in Alaska/GOA. Which happens to be very important for getting Arctic air into the West 95% of the time. Thus, there is a very strong correlation to the EPO and the West getting cold, a stronger one than Arctic blocking in general.

 

That's all. Nothing personal, I just don't understand why you insist on disputing this.

[Jesse]

not an attack, I just was saying I don't like super cold temps. an attack would be something like " you are ugly and your mother dresses you funny" but I digress. You do seem to like really cold temps, and I don't and that is fine. That is why I didn't like dec 2009 and you did.

Calling it a weird fascination certainly didn't seem friendly.

 

Fair enough though. We were getting along fine during the low elevation snow period (something we both like!) the last couple weeks so let's just focus on that.

[luvssnow_spokane]

new years resolution? wow, I am sorry for voicing my opinion then.

Some people see a difference of opinion as an attack. Which I know it was not your intention, but some are sensitive to it. I get where you are coming from though and agree.

 

NOTE: If I did not agree with you though I would either kick your a**, put you on permanent ignore or at bare minimum never talk to you again... Thanks for making me feel better and not so alone.

[BLI snowman]

I thought the NAM sucked?

 

12z is inexplicably mild for our cold rain event Saturday evening. Go GFS!

 

#bringingitbacktolocalweather

[Front Ranger]

You're illustrating my point. Notice that 7/9 of those cases occurred under La Niña/-AAM integrals, and 8/9 occurred under a N-HEM -AAM integral. Want to guess what the NAM relationship will look like under El Niño/+AAM integrals?

 

Hint: It has to do with the resulting variation(s) in energy exchange within the NPAC/NAM domains under active WAFs.

 

Yes, we all know the West is more likely to get cold with La Nina. That doesn't change the fact that every one of those events had -EPO, and +AO.

[Phil]

 

Then what's with the adamant defense of that one index, the AO? Hashtags and whatnot?

You need to interpret them correctly if you're going to use them to make an argument. I'm defending the vital importance of the polar domain (expressed in NAM index), to Arctic outbreaks in the PNW.

 

I'm not arguing that a -NAM is always required/preferred, rather, that a proper NPAC/NAM synchronization is ALWAYS required, regardless of the "sign" of the indexes.

[Timmy]

Calling it a weird fascination certainly didn't seem friendly.

 

Fair enough though. We were getting along fine during the low elevation snow period (something we both like!) the last couple weeks so let's just focus on that.

Sorry you have to understand where I am coming from, you are one of the most frequent posters on the forum and have spent the last several years poking and prodding (or making fun of) members, so for you to suddenly have a change of heart caught me off guard.  I can respect that though, I will leave that alone.  I think you and I are actually a lot alike, maybe thats why we don't get along well?  

[crf450ish]

Whoa!.....starting to look like the comment section of a Ford vs. Chevy video on YouTube here. 

[Phil]

Yes, we all know the West is more likely to get cold with La Nina. That doesn't change the fact that every one of those events had -EPO, and +AO.

You're missing the point entirely. There's a reason why a +NAM is often required/preferred in under La Niña/-AAM integrals, and there's a reason why a -NAM is often required/preferred under El Niño/+AAM integrals.

[Timmy]

Whoa!.....starting to look like the comment section of a Ford vs. Chevy video on YouTube here. 

I just love how much more intellectual phil and front ranger's argument looks than mine and Jesse's...

[Phil]

Bump for Flatiron:

 

In most cases, a favorable NPAC alone won't do the trick. Technically and physically speaking, the NPAC and NAM are a single interactive entity exchanging mass and momentum. You need the two in relative synchronization to get sufficient downstream meridional streamflow, and that can require either a +NAM, or -NAM, depending on the nature of the upstream wave activity flux.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Phil and Front Ranger!!!!!.... 

 

[Jesse]

Sorry you have to understand where I am coming from, you are one of the most frequent posters on the forum and have spent the last several years poking and prodding (or making fun of) members, so for you to suddenly have a change of heart caught me off guard. I can respect that though, I will leave that alone. I think you and I are actually a lot alike, maybe thats why we don't get along well?

Weather opinion battles are pointless. Zen master Dewey showed me the light.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is boring.   Typical Nino stuff.

[Gradient Keeper]

11:58 AM Arctic Front almost close to being here sort of UPDATE
....Tracking the Arctic boundary....

 

Based on pressure rises/temperatures the initial arctic front now south of Quesnel, BC and trucking southward. ....

Marginal cold is coming. Run for your lives. Let's just see how much cold air does or doesn't make it across the Canadian Rockies into northeast Washington and also into Kelowna, Kamloops, and Omak. We've seen the northern stream win out before many times proving to be stronger and suppressing the southern stream to an extent which turns us colder than expected. We've also seen the opposite as well. I like on WV Loop seeing the southerly flow being squashed quickly. We would benefit with a consolidated jet aimed down at California not this split flow junk. Tantalizingly close to being close!

 

http://i.imgur.com/gKe3sWf.png

[Bryant]

For s**ts and giggles, here's the 11-15 day 12z GFS. Not my forecast, but goes to show how strong polar blocking can overwhelm an unfavorable underlying NPAC component, as it did as recently as November 2014. #AOisnotoverrated

 

image.jpeg

Interesting to note that East Asia shows a retrogression of wave train correlating to the same timeframe depicted here. Let's hope this NAM reversal can shift a bit our way. Definitely has to put a fight vs the strong jet and Aluetian low though

[Gradient Keeper]

Has anyone watched this new weather guy on KGW? He has zero weather knowledge. Total turd magnet

 

"He is working towards a degree in Meteorology at Mississippi State University." which isn't a Meteorology degree at all and most of us here know more than he ever will. It's the Broadcast degree. He's just good at speaking and working the green screen or repeating what Matt Zaffino or Rod Hill has previously forecast. Just seems pretty pathetic you have a "Weatherman" on TV who isn't. lol I think Dewey should be the next TV Weatherman.

[liquidsnow]

11:58 AM Arctic Front almost close to being here sort of UPDATE

....Tracking the Arctic boundary....

 

Based on pressure rises/temperatures the initial arctic front now south of Quesnel, BC and trucking southward. ....

Marginal cold is coming. Run for your lives. Let's just see how much cold air does or doesn't make it across the Canadian Rockies into northeast Washington and also into Kelowna, Kamloops, and Omak. We've seen the northern stream win out before many times proving to be stronger and suppressing the southern stream to an extent which turns us colder than expected. We've also seen the opposite as well. I like on WV Loop seeing the southerly flow being squashed quickly. We would benefit with a consolidated jet aimed down at California not this split flow junk. Tantalizingly close to being close!

 

http://i.imgur.com/gKe3sWf.png

 

I knew I heard the sound of screaming daffodils this morning.

[Gradient Keeper]

Interesting to note that East Asia shows a retrogression of wave train correlating to the same timeframe depicted here. Let's hope this NAM reversal can shift a bit our way. Definitely has to put a fight vs the strong jet and Aluetian low though

Jet Suppression, Retrogression. If you say it out loud it is kind of catchy and has a nice ring to it!

 

Edit: Holy I am sarcastic today.... weird. Is there an analog there? I don't think so.

[Gradient Keeper]

18z in 1 hour 6 minutes!

[Front Ranger]

Phil and Front Ranger!!!!!....

oh-no-ive-gone-cross-eyed.jpg

I never resort to name-calling, though. He takes this a lot more personal than I do. Lump us together if you want, but there is a difference.

[Phil]

Interesting to note that East Asia shows a retrogression of wave train correlating to the same timeframe depicted here. Let's hope this NAM reversal can shift a bit our way. Definitely has to put a fight vs the strong jet and Aluetian low though

Yep, classic +AAM propagation into -NAM "wall" leading to a stronger meridional EP vector than the preceding zonal vector.

[Phil]

I never resort to name-calling, though. He takes this a lot more personal than I do. Lump us together if you want, but there is a difference.

True, you're more stealthy and backhanded.

 

Remember when you suspended me for a week back in 2013 and went on to attack/nitpick my posts while I couldn't respond? Yeah, I remember that, and I've paid close attention to your argumentative tactics since then.

[Front Ranger]

You need to interpret them correctly if you're going to use them to make an argument. I'm defending the vital importance of the polar domain (expressed in NAM index), to Arctic outbreaks in the PNW.

 

I'm not arguing that a -NAM is always required/preferred, rather, that a proper NPAC/NAM synchronization is ALWAYS required, regardless of the "sign" of the indexes.

 

Ok...it's just you've made several statements indicating you weren't giving much weight to NPAC blocking, when in fact it was an undeniable factor for western Arctic air. Statements that underplayed the importance of the EPO in both Dec 2009 and 1968-69.

 

The bottom line and point I was getting across is that even though polar blocking helps, NPAC/Alaskan blocking (-EPO) is the single most important factor for Arctic air in the West. It's very easy to have -AO and not get cold air in the West. Happens all the time. But -EPO almost always delivers cold air. +AO/-EPO can, and often has delivered Arctic air. -AO/+EPO? Very rarely, at least west of the Mississippi.

 

The best combination for widespread Arctic air in the lower 48 is undeniably -AO/-EPO...the more blocking to the north and west, the better.

[Front Ranger]

True, you're more stealthy and backhanded.

 

Remember when you suspended me for a week back in 2013 and went on to attack/nitpick my posts while I couldn't respond? Yeah, I remember that.

 

No.

[Phil]

Ok...it's just you've made several statements indicating you weren't giving much weight to NPAC blocking, when in fact it was an undeniable factor for western Arctic air. Statements that underplayed the importance of the EPO in both Dec 2009 and 1968-69.

I view the NPAC/NAM domains as a single entity in constant exchange. The EPO is often just a reflection of the NAM state, and is always in exchange with the NAM/PV. Separating them and pretending one is more important than the other doesn't make physical sense to me because they truly rely on one another. In cases of poor synchronization, though, the polar domain (NAM) is dominant over the NPAC, which has been demonstrated on numerous occasions since November. This is regardless of whether the NAM is positive or negative.

 

The bottom line and point I was getting across is that even though polar blocking helps, NPAC/Alaskan blocking (-EPO) is the single most important factor for Arctic air in the West. It's very easy to have -AO and not get cold air in the West. Happens all the time. But -EPO almost always delivers cold air. +AO/-EPO can, and often has delivered Arctic air. -AO/+EPO? Very rarely, at least west of the Mississippi.

Again, the EPO is often merely a reflection of the NAM state, and is always in mass/momentum exchange with the PV/NAM. In fact, the EPO is, for all intents and purposes, a feature of the NAM.

[Phil]

No.

Come on, really? I think the tension between us is, and has been quite obvious.

[luvssnow_spokane]

11:58 AM Arctic Front almost close to being here sort of UPDATE

....Tracking the Arctic boundary....

 

Based on pressure rises/temperatures the initial arctic front now south of Quesnel, BC and trucking southward. ....

Marginal cold is coming. Run for your lives. Let's just see how much cold air does or doesn't make it across the Canadian Rockies into northeast Washington and also into Kelowna, Kamloops, and Omak. We've seen the northern stream win out before many times proving to be stronger and suppressing the southern stream to an extent which turns us colder than expected. We've also seen the opposite as well. I like on WV Loop seeing the southerly flow being squashed quickly. We would benefit with a consolidated jet aimed down at California not this split flow junk. Tantalizingly close to being close!

 

http://i.imgur.com/gKe3sWf.png

I too have been fascinated by the strength of the westward push of the cold air. Much stronger than depicted, at least that I remember in the models...  It does not seem to have a eastward trajectory at all. It seems to be driven toward the coast with a slight Southeastward slide... VERRRRY INTERESTING..... ooo the hairs on my arm just stood up

[Deweydog]

According to the WV, it should be about -20 in Prince George?  

[Timmy]

Come on, really? I think the tension between us is, and has been quite obvious.

I think in all fairness, you being on the east coast and having a fascination with telling us constantly it isn't going to snow with metrics/indices etc 90% of readers don't understand probably puts a foul taste in many on here's mouths.

[Jesse]

I think in all fairness, you being on the east coast and having a fascination with telling us constantly it isn't going to snow with metrics/indices etc 90% of readers don't understand probably puts a foul taste in many on here's mouths.

Perfectly said.

[crf450ish]

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1124-winter-2015-16-banter-thread/?p=97096

[Phil]

I think in all fairness, you being on the east coast and having a fascination with telling us constantly it isn't going to snow with metrics/indices etc 90% of readers don't understand probably puts a foul taste in many on here's mouths.

I can understand that, though I'm not sure why my location matters.

 

I've tried to list "windows of opportunity" rather than make precise forecasts, as forecasting the processes that drive Arctic air into your region are quite fickle and the required precision is too much for me. However, given that only a fraction of these windows actually deliver, maybe it gives off the wrong impression, and I apologize if that's the case.

 

Obviously, awhile ago I listed January 1-10 as a window of opportunity, and while the significant amplification/NAM flip is occurring as I anticipated, it didn't actually deliver out west.

 

I tried to highlight the increased uncertainty following a counterproductive pattern in December (NPAC height rises inhibiting poleward energy/flux conduits). Had the pattern evolved a bit differently in December, I think we'd be in a different pattern right now.

[stuffradio]

I really felt that fake cold today though!