January 2016 in the PNW

[TT-SEA]

Holy moly at that block on the 00z GFS. Might as well throw common sense out the window over the next few weeks.

 

Done! 

 

I threw that out years ago.   

[Deweydog]

Well, . Common sense just started telling me we were going to get slammed in the next few weeks.

[Phil]

Done!

 

I threw that out years ago.

I can't ever recall seeing an Arctic airmass driven directly from Ontario to British Columbia.

[GHweatherChris]

wow, smh

[MossMan]

34 chilly degrees currently. I can almost smell the arctic air to the north.

[Guest Winterdog]

34 chilly degrees currently. I can almost smell the arctic air to the north.

Sorry, that was me.

[Snowman5678]

Looks like it should be a pretty calm drive back to Salt Lake on Saturday, a sharp contrast to what it was showing this time last week. Freezing fog will be an issue from about Ellensburg to Pendleton but besides that should be sunny with temps staying around 30 most of the drive. 

[MossMan]

Sorry, that was me.

Wow, smelled winter fresh...with almost a hint of roses!

[luvssnow_spokane]

Wow, smelled winter fresh...with almost a hint of roses!

Odd I smelled pine and wet dog fur...

[MossMan]

Odd I smelled pine and wet dog fur...

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[GHweatherChris]

That arctic front must have stalled huh?

[Guest Winterdog]

That arctic front must have stalled huh?

It forgot to turn left when it got to BC.

[MossMan]

That arctic front must have stalled huh?

Border patrol pulled it over and is currently doing a full cavity search. It won't be moving very quickly after that and will most likely whimper off to the east.

[MossMan]

That arctic front must have stalled huh?

Looking at the water vapor it sure looks like it would push right on down and smash into us. Too bad it won't.

[Guest Winterdog]

Border patrol pulled it over and is currently doing a full cavity search. It won't be moving very quickly after that and will most likely whimper off to the east.

I don't really like the image that conjures up.

[Guest Winterdog]

Looking at the water vapor it sure looks like it would push right on down and smash into us. Too bad it won't.

Since it looks like amateur hour here on the forum tonight I'm going to posit that not much of that run looks likely. Especially the end.

[MossMan]

Since it looks like amateur hour here on the forum tonight I'm going to posit that not much of that run looks likely. Especially the end.

Which run? The gfsnamecmwfgem?

[Guest Winterdog]

Which run? The gfsnamecmwfgem?

The GFS that moves the arctic air westward across North America then it gets pushed due north.

[MossMan]

Since it looks like amateur hour here on the forum tonight I'm going to posit that not much of that run looks likely. Especially the end.

We need the MRF back...that bad boy always showed us getting clobbered in the extended with -24 850's even in July. Those colors were always so pretty to look at on my Gateway tower of power.

[MossMan]

The GFS that moves the arctic air westward across North America then it gets pushed due north.

Gotcha...well stranger things have happened...

[Guest Winterdog]

Gotcha...well stranger things have happened...

Yeah, like my f**ts smelling like winter fresh roses.

[stuffradio]

The 00z shows flurries for me at hour 204.

[MossMan]

Yeah, like my f**ts smelling like winter fresh roses.

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[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Strange looking gfs run tonight. Like phil said I have also never seen arctic air get pushed that direction. Might be interesting to see where this goes over the next few runs. Also long range is looking colder amd wet again.

[crf450ish]

Strange looking gfs run tonight. Like phil said I have also never seen arctic air get pushed that direction. Might be interesting to see where this goes over the next few runs. Also long range is looking colder amd wet again.

Yeah... Doesn't arctic air usually propagate east? Or at least south east, more eastward

[Chewbacca Defense]

Internship at the Weather Channel... very cool!   

 

 

It was very cool, and an amazing opportunity!  I grew up in Atlanta, and watched the Weather Channel all the time.  In high school I earned a spot in the advanced  program in high school, and one of the classes they offered was professional internships.  I had one friend placed with a prominent Orthopedic Surgeon who worked with one of the pro sports teams, other placements included a Cardiologist, the Atlanta Mayor's Staff, and I got on at the Weather Channel.

 

I got to meet and work with John Hope, one of the leading experts on hurricanes at the time.  I was able to experience just about everything except going on the air.  I mostly worked at the severe desk, so it was my "job" to keep the on air talent informed about severe weather warnings.  I was there in the spring, so it was pretty busy.  They had a printer that emitted a loud chirp when the warning came over the wire. There were a few days where it seemed like it was going off non-stop.  In the slow times, that desk was responsible for cleaning up missing or erroneous data for the local forecast graphics.  

 

For my "final exam" I was given a national map w/ the latest observations, handed red and blue colored pencils and had to identify the pressure centers and fronts.  That's how they came up with the current conditions national map graphics then.  It was a lot tougher than I thought it would be.  I then got to use that to create the graphics for the next hour.

 

The biggest bummer was when I sat down with one of the staff meteorologists and talked about meteorology as a career.  When he told me that I would need to get a Master's degree to even be considered for a job, and that most likely I would be end up working for the NWS making $30k per year.  He really didn't offer much for the private sector, and the Weather Channel was still pretty new then, so I can't imagine they paid too well then.  Not exactly a ringing endorsement...

[ShawniganLake]

Yeah... Doesn't arctic air usually propagate east? Or at least south east, more eastward

Backdoor events, from the east, happen on occasion.

[richard mann]

(.. cross-reference.)

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1133-winter-2015-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=108805

[Gradient Keeper]

Strange looking gfs run tonight. Like phil said I have also never seen arctic air get pushed that direction. Might be interesting to see where this goes over the next few runs. Also long range is looking colder amd wet again.

Many years ago I think February 2005? Models(Maybe the old MRF) showed the Hudson's Bay vortex to move southwestward digging over WA/OR. I remember seeing it on the Unisys website and 850mb temps by day 8-10 were something like -20c over PDX, -25c Gorge, -30c Spokane. Needless to say a historic blast. If only it had transpired. Other than that I don't remember too many other times.

[MossMan]

https://www.facebook.com/NWSSeattle/posts/1033705186689887:0

[Andie]

Interesting comparison between January 1998 and January 2016 snowpack.

 

http://www.tucsonnewsnow.com/story/30909302/western-snowpack-this-year-compared-to-past-el-nino-events

 

 

 

 

 

IRI ENSO Forecast:

 

http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

[Andie]

On another note.....I'm still waiting for Kevin Martin to star in a SciFi Channel movie entitled...

 

Winter Sharknado vs. ENSO Godzilla

 

He can be the crazed met that bites the dust before the first commercial.

[FroYoBro]

I think it is ridiculous that people are just attacking Kevin Martin on here. He isn't even here to defend himself. Have some respect for a great forecaster that is trying to do great things for the weather community. 

[MossMan]

I think it is ridiculous that people are just attacking Kevin Martin on here. He isn't even here to defend himself. Have some respect for a great forecaster that is trying to do great things for the weather community.

I can't quite tell if you are being serious or sarcastic...

[Poulsbo Snowman]

I can't quite tell if you are being serious or sarcastic...

 

He is. 

[MossMan]

35 degrees with highish clouds currently this morning. No posts on the GFS 12z so I'm assuming there is nothing to talk about.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

35 degrees with highish clouds currently this morning. No posts on the GFS 12z so I'm assuming there is nothing to talk about.

 

Yeah it was super ugly.

[Bryant]

I think it is ridiculous that people are just attacking Kevin Martin on here. He isn't even here to defend himself. Have some respect for a great forecaster that is trying to do great things for the weather community.

Thanks for the laugh. Seeing Kevin Martin associated with the words "great forecaster" is the best joke I've heard in a long time. If you would like to step up and defend him, then good luck.

[TT-SEA]

Gorgeous day... wall to wall sunshine here.

[Gradient Keeper]

On another note.....I'm still waiting for Kevin Martin to star in a SciFi Channel movie entitled...

 

Winter Sharknado vs. ENSO Godzilla

 

He can be the crazed met that bites the dust before the first commercial.

Lol sounds like a hit! I'd watch that one