January 2016 in the PNW

[MossMan]

For s**ts and giggles, here's the 11-15 day 12z GFS. Not my forecast, but goes to show how strong polar blocking can overwhelm an unfavorable underlying NPAC component, as it did as recently as November 2014. #AOisnotoverrated

 

image.jpeg

I received 2" of snow in November of 2014 and I did enjoy the cold...I would be ok with a repeat!

[Deweydog]

Went to dinner with my brother the other night and we reminisced about Seattle winters growing up. Does anyone remember calling the old NWS number (206) 526-6087 and hearing the old British guy say "turning unseasonably cold at the end of the week" or "getting colder throughout the day with snow developing" as an arctic front nailed us.

 

That seemed like a LONG time ago...

I just called it. Today it's a 12 year old Philippino boy saying "have you seen the blob, idiot? We're ******* screwed. Trump 2016!!!"

 

Times have changed!

[luvssnow_spokane]

I received 2" of snow in November of 2014 and I did enjoy the cold...I would be ok with a repeat!

Me too except about 2 degrees colder. Another bout of multiple days for 34 degree rain will about push me over the edge. NO really I probably will go freaking Ape s**t if that was the result again. OR at least I would starting throwing Ape s**t...

 

 

[Weather101]

I just called it. Today it's a 12 year old Philippino boy saying "have you seen the blob, idiot? We're ******* screwed. Trump 2016!!!"

 

Times have changed!

:lol: surprised you understood a single word he said.

[Phil]

Does anyone here remember the Arctic blast back in December 2009?

 

#AOisnotoverrated

 

[Weather101]

Me too...when its in the frozen state due to a major arctic outbreak at the end of the month!

Yup. Cant wait!!

[Phil]

Monster -AO unfolding. Like many other times, it doesn't look like it will do the West much good. Facts matter.

Certainly, so start utilizing them.

[Timmy]

Does anyone here remember the Arctic blast back in December 2009?

 

#AOisnotoverrated

 

image.png

yeah it sucked, dry cold... I had to help put a deck in for the church my wife and I would be married in and digging in gravel with a high in the mid 20's was terrible.  It only snowed on the 29th, and we were on our honeymoon then...

[Front Ranger]

Yeah, let's just forget about December 2009 and November 2014, both of which were reliant on the -NAM under an unfavorable NPAC meridional component.

 

I'd recommend expanding your horizons away from the North Pacific. No doubt it's an important component to the pattern, but from my point of view, you're placing way too much emphasis on it.

Simple correlations, my friend. PNA and to a larger extent the EPO have stronger correlations to cold air in the West. No way around it.

 

I'd recommend expanding your horizons beyond the traditional indexes eastern weenies watch. 

[Front Ranger]

Does anyone here remember the Arctic blast back in December 2009?

 

#AOisnotoverrated

 

image.png

Hey look at that...-EPO.

[BLI snowman]

Monster -AO unfolding. Like many other times, it doesn't look like it will do the West much good. Facts matter.

 

By itself it doesn't mean a ton, there are obviously other factors at work. But, it can be very beneficial to us. Plenty of examples of impressively cold deep -AO months in the PNW. When the AO is deeply tanked in DJF, I'd certainly say it favors us being cold overall. 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/monthly.ao.index.b50.current.ascii.table

 

AO was -2 or lower in DJF in the following months:

 

February 1956

February 1958

January 1959

January 1960

January 1963

February 1965

January 1966

February 1968

January/February 1969

January 1970

All of 1976-77

February 1978

January 1979

January 1980

January 1985

February 1986

December 1995

January 1998

December 2000

December 2005

All of 2009-10

December 2010

 

So there are a handful of really bad months in there, but I'd say more often than not it favored cold in the PNW. Either through deep inversions (January 1985 and January 1977) or through arctic airmasses. A disproportionate number of these months featured a PNW cold snap.

[Front Ranger]

Jan 1950, SEA's snowiest and coldest month on record: neutral AO

 

Feb/Mar 1989, Back to back top-tier Arctic outbreaks in the West: very +AO

 

Jan 1957, very cold in the West: +AO

 

Dec 2008: +AO

 

Dec 1990, One of the greatest Western Arctic outbreaks on record: +AO

 

Jan 2007: +AO

 

1971-72, Very snowy/cold winter for the PNW: +AO

 

Dec 1972, One of the greatest Arctic outbreaks on record in December for the West Coast: +AO

 

Dec 1998, Major Western Arctic outbreak: +AO

 

I could go on...

[Deweydog]

Good lord, we all know it takes a multitude of factors for the PNW to get all longwave super cold and snowy.

 

Thank god a guy from Colorado and a guy from DC are here discovering this fact for the first time. It's akin to a person from Seattle visiting Vancouver for the first time and asking "what's Burgerville?"

[Front Ranger]

By itself it doesn't mean a ton, there are obviously other factors at work. But, it can be very beneficial to us. Plenty of examples of impressively cold deep -AO months in the PNW. When the AO is deeply tanked in DJF, I'd certainly say it favors us being cold overall. 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/monthly.ao.index.b50.current.ascii.table

 

AO was -2 or lower in DJF in the following months:

 

February 1956

February 1958

January 1959

January 1960

January 1963

February 1965

January 1966

February 1968

January/February 1969

January 1970

All of 1976-77

February 1978

January 1979

January 1980

January 1985

February 1986

December 1995

January 1998

December 2000

December 2005

All of 2009-10

December 2010

 

So there are a handful of really bad months in there, but I'd say more often than not it favored cold in the PNW. Either through deep inversions (January 1985 and January 1977) or through arctic airmasses. A disproportionate number of these months featured a PNW cold snap.

 

Yes, very -AO is definitely better than very +AO, in general. -AO always increases the chances of Arctic air in the lower 48.

 

Doesn't negate my point: for the West, -EPO is easily more important.

[Phil]

Hey look at that...-EPO.

Dude, that's a tiny 1-sigma -EPO under a raging +PNA. Without the -NAM, the entirety of the NW US would torch to high heaven.

[Front Ranger]

Good lord, we all know it takes a multitude of factors for the PNW to get all longwave super cold and snowy.

 

Thank god a guy from Colorado and a guy from DC are here disovering this fact for the first time. It's akin to a person from Seattle visiting Vancouver for the first time and asking "what's Burgerville?"

 

Stale. The guy who runs this site (iFred) lives in Philly. Oh no!!

[Phil]

Good lord, we all know it takes a multitude of factors for the PNW to get all longwave super cold and snowy.

 

Thank god a guy from Colorado and a guy from DC are here disovering this fact for the first time. It's akin to a person from Seattle visiting Vancouver for the first time and asking "what's Burgerville?"

Sorry, but his NPAC fetish is stupid and physically nonsensical. I wouldn't care under normal circumstances, but he's been nitpicking my posts 24/7 lately and I'm tired of it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

yeah it sucked, dry cold... I had to help put a deck in for the church my wife and I would be married in and digging in gravel with a high in the mid 20's was terrible.  It only snowed on the 29th, and we were on our honeymoon then...

 

I liked Dec 09 out in Oklahoma. It was a pretty intense cold snap for W. Oregon. I think Eugene hit single digits a couple of nights. 

[Front Ranger]

Dude, that's a tiny 1-sigma -EPO under a raging +PNA. Without the -NAM, the entirety of the NW US would torch to high heaven.

 

The -EPO reached -4 during the Western Arctic outbreak: ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/teleconn/epo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt

[BLI snowman]

Yes, very -AO is definitely better than very +AO, in general. -AO always increases the chances of Arctic air in the lower 48.

 

Doesn't negate my point: for the West, -EPO is easily more important.

 

Probably, but like most of your arguments it's tantamount to unnecessary weenie hair-splitting.

 

But as always, it's a fun substitute for model riding for us to see two guys 1000+ miles away b*tch about their split hairs in our weather thread.

[Jesse]

Does anyone here remember the Arctic blast back in December 2009?

 

#AOisnotoverrated

 

 

That was a great blast. Only single digits I've ever personally seen on the west side.

[Front Ranger]

Sorry, but his NPAC fetish is stupid and physically nonsensical. I wouldn't care under normal circumstances, but he's been nitpicking my posts 24/7 lately and I'm tired of it.

 

No need to get all insulting. I'm simply providing facts. Correlations are what they are.

[Phil]

By itself it doesn't mean a ton, there are obviously other factors at work. But, it can be very beneficial to us. Plenty of examples of impressively cold deep -AO months in the PNW. When the AO is deeply tanked in DJF, I'd certainly say it favors us being cold overall.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/monthly.ao.index.b50.current.ascii.table

 

AO was -2 or lower in DJF in the following months:

 

February 1956

February 1958

January 1959

January 1960

January 1963

February 1965

January 1966

February 1968

January/February 1969

January 1970

All of 1976-77

February 1978

January 1979

January 1980

January 1985

February 1986

December 1995

January 1998

December 2000

December 2005

All of 2009-10

December 2010

 

So there are a handful of really bad months in there, but I'd say more often than not it favored cold in the PNW. Either through deep inversions (January 1985 and January 1977) or through arctic airmasses. A disproportionate number of these months featured a PNW cold snap.

Bingo. In most cases, a favorable NPAC alone won't do the trick. Technically and physically speaking, the NPAC and NAM are a single interactive entity exchanging mass and momentum. You need the two in relative synchronization to get sufficient downstream meridional streamflow, and that can require either a +NAM, or -NAM, depending on the nature of the upstream wave activity flux.

[Front Ranger]

Probably, but like most of your arguments it's tantamount to unnecessary weenie hair-splitting.

 

Dude...he claimed 1968-69 had a "lack of NPAC blocking". It's not hair splitting to point out the wrong-ness of that statement and associated biases.

[Deweydog]

Stale. The guy who runs this site (iFred) lives in Philly. Oh no!!

I guess that makes this six of one, half dozen of another discussion as fresh as the produce aisle at Chuck's. No nits OR gnats there!

[Jesse]

12z is a very reasonably chilly run throughout.

 

Spring may have to wait a few more weeks!

[BLI snowman]

That was a great blast. Only single digits I've ever personally seen on the west side.

 

December 2013? December 1998? January 1996? December 1990? February 1989?

 

Aren't you like 30?

[Phil]

The -EPO reached -4 during the Western Arctic outbreak: ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/teleconn/epo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt

Actually, the -NAM was so strong/expansive that it registered in the EPO domain, thanks to a triple wavebreak. There's was a wavebreak in the EPO which fed the -NAM (along with wavebreaks over the NATL & Eurasia), but it was not the mechanism behind the blast.

[Deweydog]

What was the AO on 7-10-08?

[HighlandExperience]

12z is a very reasonably chilly run throughout.

 

Spring may have to wait a few more weeks!

 

Very nice change compared to last winter.

[Phil]

Dude...he claimed 1968-69 had a "lack of NPAC blocking". It's not hair splitting to point out the wrong-ness of that statement and associated biases.

You also took that post way out of context.

 

Pathetic, dude.

[Front Ranger]

Actually, the -NAM was so strong/expansive that it registered in the EPO domain, thanks to a triple wavebreak. There's was a wavebreak in the EPO which fed the -NAM (along with wavebreaks over the NATL & Eurasia), but it was not the mechanism behind the blast.

 

Ok, so in that case you believe the -EPO (which I proved was greater than you claimed) was forced by the -AO.

 

What about all the periods I listed above where the AO was positive?

 

Hint: the EPO was negative for every single one of them.

[seattleweatherguy]

Where is thar muri guy. He believed that snow in the lowlands correlated with snow in Juneau and the top of dome Hawaii mt

[Jesse]

December 2013? December 1998? January 1996? December 1990? February 1989?

 

Aren't you like 30?

I mean for my location. It was too windy to drop to single digits in Stevenson in December 2013. We only hit low teens.

 

All the others I was 12 or younger and not paying attention. Orchards DEFINITELY got below 10F in December '09 though!

[BLI snowman]

What was the AO on 7-10-08?

 

Negative pi. 

[Timmy]

That was a great blast. Only single digits I've ever personally seen on the west side.

yeah but you have a weird fascination with low temps, all they do for me is break pipes on my rentals and cost more for heating.  snow and 26f is an ideal setup for me.

[Deweydog]

Negative pi.

Well that settles that.

 

Long live negativity!

[Phil]

Ok, so in that case you believe the -EPO (which I proved was greater than you claimed) was forced by the -AO.

 

What about all the periods I listed above where the AO was positive? Hint: the EPO was negative for every single one of them.

Quit looking at these meaningless "indexes" and start looking at the large scale wave-fields. There are cases where a +NAM is necessary/preferred, and there are cases where a -NAM is necessary/preferred.

 

Bingo. In most cases, a favorable NPAC alone won't do the trick. Technically and physically speaking, the NPAC and NAM are a single interactive entity exchanging mass and momentum. You need the two in relative synchronization to get sufficient downstream meridional streamflow, and that can require either a +NAM, or -NAM, depending on the nature of the upstream wave activity flux.

In most circumstances, the NAM is vital for you guys.

[BLI snowman]

I mean for my location. It was too windy to drop to single digits in Stevenson in December 2013. We only hit low teens.

 

All the others I was 12 or younger and not paying attention. Orchards DEFINITELY got below 10F in December '09 though!

 

Strong correlation factor between the West getting favorable blocking and Jesse not paying attention. Hmm....

[Jesse]

yeah but you have a weird fascination with low temps, all they do for me is break pipes on my rentals and cost more for heating. snow and 26f is an ideal setup for me.

I didn't call your opinion about that event out, even though I disagree with your take on it, so don't do that to mine. There are plenty of us here who are interested in really cold temps. Nothing weird about it.

 

I'm done with the opinion wars, so either refrain from posts like this directed at me in the future, or just expect no response next time.