January 2016 in the PNW

[MossMan]

Just drove past North Bend...48 degrees while everywhere else was in the 30's.

[TT-SEA]

Just drove past North Bend...48 degrees while everywhere else was in the 30's.

Downslope warming. Particularly on the valley floor. Although I see that SEA was up to 45 at 3 a.m.

 

Only 38 up here right now but might have been warmer earlier.   It can really jump around with wind gusts.

[Tyler Mode]

27 here this morning with some icy roads left behind from a shower that moved through late in the evening.

[Phil]

Been awhile since we've seen a -NAM of this magnitude. Should be a general theme for the remainder of the winter, though obviously with the usual variability. I suspect the blocking will become more NAO-based with time.

 

[TT-SEA]

Been awhile since we've seen a -NAM of this magnitude. Should be a general theme for the remainder of the winter, though obviously with the usual variability. I suspect the blocking will become more NAO-based with time.

 

image.gif

What does that mean for us? Drier?

[crf450ish]

Shouldn't someone have posted hour 240 of the Canadian?

Do you ever post weather maps?

[crf450ish]

Hey Phil, do you have any data on the winter of 88'-89'? There was a freak March Snowstorm in western WA in March 89'.....Curious as to what the NAM, EPO, MJO, NAO, AO etc etc etc was. Thanks. 

[Timmy]

Shouldn't someone have posted hour 240 of the Canadian?

That is no longer necessary after the first snow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Gorgeous sunrise and 29 degrees this morning. Everything is extremely icy. It was raining yesterday evening and about 35 degrees. As soon as the rain stopped and it cleared out it appears everything froze. 

[TT-SEA]

Gorgeous sunrise and 29 degrees this morning. Everything is extremely icy. It was raining yesterday evening and about 35 degrees. As soon as the rain stopped and it cleared out it appears everything froze. 

 

 

Beautiful sunrise here as well.... almost totally clear and the roads are frosty and the snow is crusty again.    Wind must have calmed down here in the last couple hours.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

MM-5 NAM

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Dense fog advisory for the Central and Southern valley today, but just partly cloudy up here. 

[Phil]

What does that mean for us? Drier?

In the long run, yes, minus a wet/stormy period later this month.

[TT-SEA]

In the long run, yes, minus a wet/stormy period later this month.

 

 

Makes sense.

[Deweydog]

Do you ever post weather maps?

I figure most people who post here have internet access.

[TT-SEA]

Some pics while going out to get the paper... its slick out there.

 

http://s7.postimg.org/s05z7nhsr/2016_01_06_08_06_27.jpg

 

http://s8.postimg.org/fabham339/2016_01_06_08_05_46.jpg

[SilverFallsAndrew]

SLE just dropped to 32 with 1/4 mile visibility. Should be a fun drive to work!

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS shows precip getting north of Portland on Saturday afternoon... and the cold pool should be re-established by then.     These systems tend to come even further north than the models show as well.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_084_precip_p03.gif

[Jesse]

Nice to see PDX at 6 for 6 for January freezes so far!

[Phil]

Hey Phil, do you have any data on the winter of 88'-89'? There was a freak March Snowstorm in western WA in March 89'.....Curious as to what the NAM, EPO, MJO, NAO, AO etc etc etc was. Thanks.

That was a La Niña winter, so systematic relationships were different.

[Phil]

Makes sense.

Also in this case -NAM benefits California more-so than +NAM under strong W-HEM +AAM/+EPO.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like its actually going to be mostly sunny the next 3 days.   Usually nice here when most of CA is getting rain.

[TT-SEA]

Another significant icing event for Portland is very possible on Saturday per the 12Z GFS.   

[Deweydog]

Another significant icing event for Portland is very possible on Saturday per the 12Z GFS.

Close call.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The hwy between my house and Silverton is a nightmare. Solid sheet of ice. Multiple accidents.had to drive 20mph the whole way, with awd.

[TT-SEA]

Close call.

 

 

Pretty good set-up... but not nearly as good as the existing conditions before the last event.  Definitely an icing event for the Gorge though.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/slp.72.0000.gif

[Deweydog]

Pretty good set-up... but not nearly as good as the existing conditions before the last event. Definitely an icing event for the Gorge though.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/slp.72.0000.gif

Should mainly be a snow event in the gorge itself.

[TT-SEA]

Saturday at 4 p.m.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/slp.84.0000.gif

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/pcp1.84.0000.gif

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/snow3.84.0000.gif

 

 

And still sunny up here...

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/xintcld.84.0000.gif.pagespeed.ic.SyrnAlVFkt.png

[BLI snowman]

Would be nice if that cold air pool got moved about 60 miles west. 

[Kayla]

Another significant icing event for Portland is very possible on Saturday per the 12Z GFS.   

 

Or snow...

[Kayla]

WRF handled the last cold pool horribly and the one before that. I have a lot more confidence with the NAM/GEM/ECMWF during these setups.

 

Pretty good set-up... but not nearly as good as the existing conditions before the last event.  Definitely an icing event for the Gorge though.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/slp.72.0000.gif

[luvssnow_spokane]

12Z GFS shows precip getting north of Portland on Saturday afternoon... and the cold pool should be re-established by then.     These systems tend to come even further north than the models show as well.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_084_precip_p03.gif

Goodie more 35 degree rain. Can hardly wait!  <_>

[Deweydog]

WRF handled the last cold pool horribly and the one before that. I have a lot more confidence with the NAM/GEM/ECMWF during these setups.

Well, the GFS and the NAM are the only ones showing much of any potential so you may want to warm your weenie self back up to it.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Or snow...

The setup is worse than last time and we all know how that turned out for many. Soooo nope! 

[Kayla]

The setup is worse than last time and we all know how that turned out for many. Soooo nope! 

 

We're speaking of PDX

[Snowman5678]

The roads around the area were absolutely horrible this morning. Carnation - Redmond, usually a half hour drive on 202, took 2 hours because of an accident. Ames Lake Rd (decided to go another way after waiting an hour to move a couple miles) was completely iced over. I spun out 4 separate times even after putting my SUV in 4wd. A co-worker of mine who lives in Duvall said she witnessed a truck flipping over when it skidded around a corner and went into the ditch, she stopped and luckily everyone was OK.

 

Just a complete mess.

Yeah, my neighborhood and most side roads were wicked icy this morning and traffic was awful! I assume you went from Ames Lake to west Snoqualmie Valley rd. That one ices over pretty bad too.

[luvssnow_spokane]

We're speaking of PDX

well still a little  "nope" based on overall model consensus... stay tuned

[Kayla]

Well, the GFS and the NAM are the only ones showing much of any potential so you may want to warm your weenie self back up to it.

 

Who pee'd in your Cheerios this morning?

[Kayla]

The setup is worse than last time and we all know how that turned out for many. Soooo nope! 

 

Wow, just something to track objectively. No one is saying its a lock.

[Deweydog]

Who pee'd in your Cheerios this morning?

The WRF. He also peed in the cold pool.