gosaints Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 The GFS isnt the king big time step towards other guidance Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 00z GFS...6-8" for Chicago...I like Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 Man just no luck with moisture out this way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 00z GFS...6-8" for Chicago...I likeNearly 6 for here as well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 seriously though, nobody is seeing >6" from this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 00z GFS has no such coastal low development...much better run...continues to head in the right direction and model errors getting better sampling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 seriously though, nobody is seeing >6" from this.Want to use some science to back yourself up? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 seriously though, nobody is seeing >6" from this.Seriously, why in the world would you say this??? Way to early to make a call that ORD = DAB Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 seriously though, nobody is seeing >6" from this.Somebody will. Figuring out who will be the challenge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 There's no way I get any snow from this in Eastern Iowa. Bare ground with cold temps it is I guess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 Want to use some science to back yourself up?Please school him... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 Seriously, why in the world would you say this??? Way to early to make a call that ORD = DABSo we would respond to him 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 final call for ORD: DAB Models are overdoing the snow totals. Cold air doesn't come in fast enough.Good luck with that call Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 So we would respond to himAgree, to some point...it gets annoying when his Bias's get in the way and cloud his judgement Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160107/00Z/f072/6hkucherasnowconus.png http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160107/00Z/f078/6hkucherasnowconus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160107/00Z/f090/24hkucherasnowconus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 GFS has a more wider band of snow this run for sure. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 That run on the GFS would produce some Lehs in WI/IL side...might need it to be a bit colder though.. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016010700/gfs_T850_ncus_14.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 That run on the GFS would produce some Lehs in WI/IL side...might need it to be a bit colder though.. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016010700/gfs_T850_ncus_14.pngTom, can this thing shift NW? Or will that high keep it too far south to reach Iowa? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 seriously though, nobody is seeing >6" from this. I don't question your thoughts normally, but this one I'm not agreeing on, way too early to sound so confident on this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 Using the Kuchera ratios. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 Tom, can this thing shift NW? Or will that high keep it too far south to reach Iowa?HP is over powering this system from shifting to far NW into IA IMO... 00z GFS is also getting a little slower over the last two 12z/00z runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 thats irritating... arctic air with bare ground. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 GGEM http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/492_100.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 First time I'm noticing at 500mb the GFS is starting to go neg tilt once the system crosses over into IN. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 Don't hear this very often but in my opinion Nam seems to have a pretty good handle on this storm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 So 1.8" imby ha. Chicago can do no wrong the last three winters. So close yet so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 Don't hear this very often but in my opinion Nam seems to have a pretty good handle on this stormThis may be the first storm we are tracking this season that does not occlude while heading up towards the Lakes region. NAM may do a better job with a dynamic system but more or less when within 36 hours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 Don't hear this very often but in my opinion Nam seems to have a pretty good handle on this stormThe NAM GGEM and GFS are pretty in step at this stage. GGEM might be a little slower bring the cold?? Not sure on the the B/W maps are hard to get a read on Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 So 1.8" imby ha. Chicago can do no wrong the last three winters. So close yet so far. smh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 So 1.8" imby ha. Chicago can do no wrong the last three winters. So close yet so far. Maybe the snow shield can widen out some more and get into your area a bit better. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 At HR 81 on the GFS, it tries doing what the NAM was doing much earlier and begins separating the energy and creating a double barrel low near OH/NY. IF it maintains the energy, it will be even stronger looking as it heads up towards DTW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 smhWhat? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 Maybe the snow shield can widen out some more and get into your area a bit better.Agree, I expect it to fill in over the coming 2 days of runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 What?He doesnt think you should whine about not getting snow. I wouldnt worry about we have all been there before. If he was sitting in your shoes this winter he would feel and post much the same Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 What? Money thinks no one has the right to complain. I suppose something to keep in mind though is KC doesn't have nearly the snow climo cities like Chicago, Milwaukee, Detroit and Minneapolis do, so it wouldn't be that surprising to have a difficult time hitting the 6" threshold for a storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 What?SMH = "Shaking my Head"...I think maybe we should give the models more time and allow more patience as this is a dynamic situation. You and I both know that things change even within 24-48 hours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 all for widening the snow shield over here lol... the snow swath did seem kinda narrow to me. anyone else also notice that when compared to similar systems? Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 We got a little room for changes still. By 12z run Friday, will have a really good idea where the snowband will be.Wouldn't be surprised if blizzard conditions are possible for a short time on the backside of the low. GGEM 84 hours. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 Someone is gonna get hit! Starting to look like a phasing system. Good call Tom made a couple days ago. All the pieces are lining up now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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