Tom Posted January 9, 2016 Report Share Posted January 9, 2016 WWA issued...I'll take what I can get before the cold snap hits ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO6 AM CST SUNDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THISAFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY.* TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.* SNOW AMOUNTS...STORM TOTAL 3 TO 6 INCHES.* MAIN IMPACT...HEAVY WET SNOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE QUICKLYON ROAD SURFACES AND SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES...IMPACTING TRAVEL. SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR ARELIKELY.* OTHER IMPACTS...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH WILLFURTHER REDUCE VISIBILITY AND CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW LATETONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... http://www.weather.gov/images/lot/WxStory/FileL.png?rand=11302 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 9, 2016 Report Share Posted January 9, 2016 Latets RPM model... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 9, 2016 Report Share Posted January 9, 2016 06z GFS... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yerf Posted January 9, 2016 Report Share Posted January 9, 2016 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted January 9, 2016 Report Share Posted January 9, 2016 06z GFS...Give me some of that! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 9, 2016 Report Share Posted January 9, 2016 Temps starting to drop...currently at 35F with a west wind...looks like this storm has sped up and snow will commence roughly around 1:00pm. Latest HRRR suggest 3-5" for Cook/DuPage county, 2-4 for Lake county...pretty sharp cut-off...at least the southern burbs finally get a decent snow event. I know there are some members on here that haven't seen any snow so far this season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 9, 2016 Report Share Posted January 9, 2016 SREF's for ORD have a mean of 3.7"... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 9, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 9, 2016 Temps starting to drop...currently at 35F with a west wind...looks like this storm has sped up and snow will commence roughly around 1:00pm. Latest HRRR suggest 3-5" for Cook/DuPage county, 2-4 for Lake county...pretty sharp cut-off...at least the southern burbs finally get a decent snow event. I know there are some members on here that haven't seen any snow so far this season. Well, looking like last minute trends on this one kinda went the opposite of November's strong storm, and even the Dec mix storm. Such a shame it turned into another lame vs from what the models were portraying. Don't know what to think of this going forward in the bigger picture. That map gives mby a flurry or two, yesterday it was hopeful this could really ramp up and surprise many in a great way. Even last night RPM had 8+ This is more like typical Nino climo in the S. Lakes, fringe snows, mostly melty wx. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted January 9, 2016 Report Share Posted January 9, 2016 Ok Here is the GR NWS summary of the potential upcoming system. http://www.weather.gov/grr/AccumulatingSnowfallSaturdayintoSundayLooks like the lake effect should start Sunday night and could run thru all of next week. For the snow contest will have to figure out when the system snow stops and the lake effect starts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 9, 2016 Report Share Posted January 9, 2016 Well, looking like last minute trends on this one kinda went the opposite of November's strong storm, and even the Dec mix storm. Such a shame it turned into another lame vs from what the models were portraying. Don't know what to think of this going forward in the bigger picture. That map gives mby a flurry or two, yesterday it was hopeful this could really ramp up and surprise many in a great way. Even last night RPM had 8+ This is more like typical Nino climo in the S. Lakes, fringe snows, mostly melty wx.I think you'll do just fine...6-8" is a lock for you, then the added bonus LES which will fluff up totals... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 9, 2016 Report Share Posted January 9, 2016 Latest HRRR a little more generous with qpf in N IL... .30qpf line stretches a bit farther NW into Lake/McHenry/Kendal counties...I don't think the HRRR is doing a good job with the rain/snow in N IN/SW MI. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 9, 2016 Report Share Posted January 9, 2016 HRRR def picking up on the lake band that starts forming over LM that has eyes for N IN as the storm races on through later tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 9, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 9, 2016 I think you'll do just fine...6-8" is a lock for you, then the added bonus LES which will fluff up totals... K, what'd I miss here? None of your maps show decent snow here. My WFO decided storm cancel for my county. Where are you pulling that amount from. That's normally worth a headline around mby away from the lake. Do tell. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 9, 2016 Report Share Posted January 9, 2016 K, what'd I miss here? None of your maps show decent snow here. My WFO decided storm cancel for my county. Where are you pulling that amount from. That's normally worth a headline around mby away from the lake. Do tell.Dang, for some reason I thought you lived closer to the lake. At second glance, you may be a bit to far east where the rain/snow will be an issue. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 9, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 9, 2016 Dang, for some reason I thought you lived closer to the lake. At second glance, you may be a bit to far east where the rain/snow will be an issue. Unfortunately I don't. Looks like VanBuren Cnty will do well. They're two counties west of me. I need to update my location. As of yesterday, I'm not working along the shoreline in St. Joseph. Just when it looks like they'll be getting buried by LES Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 9, 2016 Report Share Posted January 9, 2016 12z 4k-NAM...total qpf... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 9, 2016 Report Share Posted January 9, 2016 Looking at the radar, it seems like the heavy returns in S IL are almost heading due North... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 9, 2016 Report Share Posted January 9, 2016 HRRR really favoring NE IL now and more into SE WI. http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/models/hrrr/20160109/1500Z/f009/crefptypemw.png Wow, should a second band coming up from the south. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 9, 2016 Report Share Posted January 9, 2016 HRRR really favoring NE IL now and more into SE WI. http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/models/hrrr/20160109/1500Z/f009/crefptypemw.png http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/models/hrrr/20160109/1500Z/f009/crefptypemw.pngIndeed, it's looking wetter for NE IL actually...brings the .30qpf line up to Kenosha, WI...latest run is even painting .40qpf close to ORD Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 9, 2016 Report Share Posted January 9, 2016 GFSI think it's time to expanding the watches northward. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlp Posted January 9, 2016 Report Share Posted January 9, 2016 The HRRR nailed the last storm. Right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 9, 2016 Report Share Posted January 9, 2016 The HRRR nailed the last storm. Right? It did really good on the track and the precipitation types.I would give it quite a bit of credit. That precip in central IL is heading NNE. NMM has been pushing that 0.50" area NW ever so steadily. ARW not quite as far back. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 9, 2016 Report Share Posted January 9, 2016 Need temps to drop a few more degrees so the snow can accumulate better. Sitting at 36F ATM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted January 9, 2016 Report Share Posted January 9, 2016 Need temps to drop a few more degrees so the snow can accumulate better. Sitting at 36F ATM. Same here, the overnight low was supposed to be upper 20s, so that tells me the arctic front is not progressing as far east as expected so perhaps that's why the models are back to trending a bit NW. I didn't buy into these NW shifts at first, but it's certainly plausible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 9, 2016 Report Share Posted January 9, 2016 Need temps to drop a few more degrees so the snow can accumulate better. Sitting at 36F ATM. Dewpoint down to 33° here. Mid 20s feeding into far western IL now.Still near 40° in NW IN... That wave last night didn't have the power to swing the cold air very far in back of itself. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 9, 2016 Report Share Posted January 9, 2016 Dewpoint down to 33° here. Mid 20s feeding into far western IL now.Still near 40° in NW IN.If that persists, LOT may consider changing their mind with the WSW in NW IN.... Same here, the overnight low was supposed to be upper 20s, so that tells me the arctic front is not progressing as far east as expected so perhaps that's why the models are back to trending a bit NW. I didn't buy into these NW shifts at first, but it's certainly plausible.I was skeptical as well, but now it may be in fact creeping farther NW. Going to be some heavy wet snows with lower ratios front end, maybe a little better fluff on the back side. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 9, 2016 Report Share Posted January 9, 2016 I just drove to Antioch and big fatty flakes are falling here already Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 9, 2016 Report Share Posted January 9, 2016 Lots of talk of the hrrr being NW. Thats great but it now spitting out 2-3 inches max Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 9, 2016 Report Share Posted January 9, 2016 Wait models are showing 2-4 for even here now ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 9, 2016 Report Share Posted January 9, 2016 Even the 12z Euro did a last minute NW Shift of about 50 mi with the precip shield... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 9, 2016 Report Share Posted January 9, 2016 Should be already snowing in McHenry county.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted January 9, 2016 Report Share Posted January 9, 2016 Big flakes starting to mix in here 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthandturf Posted January 9, 2016 Report Share Posted January 9, 2016 just spits of snow here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 9, 2016 Report Share Posted January 9, 2016 Starting to snow at home now. 34°. 1/4 mile visibility in Quincy right now. Macomb camera definitely backing up that area claim. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 9, 2016 Report Share Posted January 9, 2016 31.0 here in Madison Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 9, 2016 Report Share Posted January 9, 2016 2.8 from the lead wave here. Guess I should be happy.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlp Posted January 9, 2016 Report Share Posted January 9, 2016 Very light snow in Milwaukee Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 9, 2016 Report Share Posted January 9, 2016 31.0 here in Madison Finally creeping down here.Snow has kicked in a bit better. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shakjen Posted January 9, 2016 Report Share Posted January 9, 2016 Started snowing here around 12:30. Grass is covered Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted January 9, 2016 Report Share Posted January 9, 2016 Wait I might get 2-4"? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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