Geos Posted January 17, 2016 Report Share Posted January 17, 2016 Never really understood this map It is ratios. Most people think 10:1 snowfall are the rule, which is true if your talking temps between 29-32°. But if take a look at the chart below, it shows you there is many more possibilities. The map you posted above is more accurate to what will fall. Here's is a pretty cool chart showing what the snow ratio should be when snow starts to fall at these temps a loft in °C.I'm assuming that the level would be between 700mb-850mb. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 18, 2016 Report Share Posted January 18, 2016 It is ratios. Most people think 10:1 snowfall are the rule, which is true if your talking temps between 29-32°. But if take a look at the chart below, it shows you there is many more possibilities. http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_R8xVtHAV1lc/TQktarpBmiI/AAAAAAAAMvE/DnKzJEVmLpw/s1600/snow+to+water+ratio+chart.jpg The map you posted above is more accurate to what will fall. Here's is a pretty cool chart showing what the snow ratio should be when snow starts to fall at these temps a loft in °C.I'm assuming that the level would be between 700mb-850mb. http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LJZ5ArmANJQ/TRPKWIgi5JI/AAAAAAAABbo/wWvJWqSV8xE/s1600/snowratio.pngah ok, I was reading it as a really awful snowfall map Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 18, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 18, 2016 NAM pretty similar on this run vs 18z run thru 51 hours Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted January 18, 2016 Report Share Posted January 18, 2016 NAM pretty similar on this run vs 18z run thru 51 hoursAgreed. Looks like Sioux city to kirksville, Mo are in prime position if this verifies...through 54 hrs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 18, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 18, 2016 a little weaker this run in E Iowa. http://i.imgur.com/1tzj4nb.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 18, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 18, 2016 hi-res NAM looks better than regular NAM for E Iowa. http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/namhires/20160118/00Z/f54/acckucherasnowmw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowa2015 Posted January 18, 2016 Report Share Posted January 18, 2016 5 ish for my area i take it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 18, 2016 Report Share Posted January 18, 2016 That's a very strange pattern to the snow band. It resembles waves the way the accumulation oscillate back and forth. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 18, 2016 Report Share Posted January 18, 2016 00z GFS...looks like extreme northeast NE/IA/N MO/C IL are in for some advisory snows... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted January 18, 2016 Report Share Posted January 18, 2016 Both the 0z runs if NAM and the GFS give Des Moines more than a quarter inch qpf. Lock that in please! Especially with ratios most likely between 15 & 20:1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 18, 2016 Report Share Posted January 18, 2016 00z GFS...looks like extreme northeast NE/IA/N MO/C IL are in for some advisory snows... High end advisory at that or even a warning - depending on how certain areas handle headlines regarding snow amounts. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 18, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 18, 2016 Models shifting a bit more south overnight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted January 18, 2016 Report Share Posted January 18, 2016 Wow, what a shift with the NAM. It now gives Omaha Warning type snows, 6-8". Hope these trends continue. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 18, 2016 Report Share Posted January 18, 2016 00z Euro...a little farther south and targets KC/STL region... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 18, 2016 Report Share Posted January 18, 2016 06z GFS... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 18, 2016 Report Share Posted January 18, 2016 Who cares. Let's get this lame winter over! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 18, 2016 Report Share Posted January 18, 2016 Around here, south trend is the way to go...be lucky to get a few passing snow showers in N IL... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowa2015 Posted January 18, 2016 Report Share Posted January 18, 2016 Liking the trends pretty much every modal gives me snow. depending on whice modal some where between 2-6 range Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 18, 2016 Report Share Posted January 18, 2016 Surprised at the south shift. Opposite of what has happened this winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 18, 2016 Report Share Posted January 18, 2016 Surprised at the south shift. Opposite of what has happened this winter.The set-up screams south but yes this winter has defied logic at times Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 18, 2016 Report Share Posted January 18, 2016 This system is really drying up for northeast Iowa. Cedar Rapids is down to maybe an 1 inch on the models. It's just not a good pattern for us. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 18, 2016 Report Share Posted January 18, 2016 Yeah im only expecting some flurries. Was looking decent a couple days ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 18, 2016 Report Share Posted January 18, 2016 It's about time to see how the euro looks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 18, 2016 Report Share Posted January 18, 2016 So far euro looks like the gfs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 18, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 18, 2016 Bad trends for e Iowa today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 18, 2016 Report Share Posted January 18, 2016 Every run of every model is south since late yesterday. Now, the 18z nam has removed the snow completely for eastern Iowa north of I-80. Onward to better systems, hopefully. Still should be a decent modest snow event for se NE to St. Louis. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 18, 2016 Report Share Posted January 18, 2016 Too cold and dry for this system to come up this way. Imagine that in a super el Niño... Looks like a southern IL event back west up towards eastern NE. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 18, 2016 Report Share Posted January 18, 2016 Nothing going on with this clipper, be lucky to squeeze out some flurries. Onto the next one whenever that may be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 18, 2016 Report Share Posted January 18, 2016 Sadly it's trending in the wrong direction. Maybe an inch or two. On to Feb. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 18, 2016 Report Share Posted January 18, 2016 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM CSTTUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA/VALLEY HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 6 PMCST TUESDAY. * EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP AROUND 4 AM TUESDAY AND THEN DIMINISH BY 6PM TUESDAY. * THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 6 AM AND NOONTUESDAY. * TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowa2015 Posted January 18, 2016 Report Share Posted January 18, 2016 Needs to shift back north little Now on exterm northern edge. boooo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted January 18, 2016 Report Share Posted January 18, 2016 18Z GFS puts down 5-6" in eastern Neb into western Iowa. I'm not expecting more than 2 or 3 inches though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 18, 2016 Report Share Posted January 18, 2016 Sadly it's trending in the wrong direction. Maybe an inch or two. On to Feb. GFS is really trying for your area! Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 18, 2016 Report Share Posted January 18, 2016 ill be happy with 2" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 18, 2016 Report Share Posted January 18, 2016 GFS is really trying for your area! http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160118/18Z/f054/acckucherasnowmw.pngThe EURO is too. So painfully close to a good 4-5". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 18, 2016 Report Share Posted January 18, 2016 the last few systems to come through ended up farther south and west of where the models had them, something to keep in mind. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 18, 2016 Report Share Posted January 18, 2016 Omaha looks good for 4-5". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 18, 2016 Report Share Posted January 18, 2016 This map includes both waves this week. Might end up getting 7" in some areas.Wouldn't be surprised if KC does better than 3-4". Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowa2015 Posted January 18, 2016 Report Share Posted January 18, 2016 Ugh Only 2-3 inches now Hopefully the Snow can slide east more from western iowa Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 19, 2016 Report Share Posted January 19, 2016 00z nam is slightly dryer then 18z and 12z nam Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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