Bryant Posted June 7, 2016 Report Share Posted June 7, 2016 great animation of 200 mb forcing. really fascinating how it all fits together...eventually effecting the sensible weather here or there.Thanks Said it before, but I feel like tropical forcing as a whole is very underrated and overlooked. It all links together, and is a very good method to get an idea of the overall pattern in advance 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted June 7, 2016 Author Report Share Posted June 7, 2016 Can we get the title of this thread changed? "Nina Watch 2016-2017" maybe? The Nino is dead now, and the Nina is on the horizon Amen brother! 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted June 7, 2016 Author Report Share Posted June 7, 2016 great animation of 200 mb forcing. really fascinating how it all fits together...eventually effecting the sensible weather here or there. Solar: sunspots dropped to zero on 6/4 for the first time in the eventual cycle 24/25 minimum. Interesting article regarding the current cycle:https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/06/04/solar-cycle-update-spotless/ This is shaping up to be a really nice spotless run for so early in the cycle. Already up to 5 days. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted June 7, 2016 Report Share Posted June 7, 2016 At this point I think we are looking at about a 60% chance of a weak Nina and 40% of a moderate Nina. I'm going to go with about a 50% chance of a multi-year event. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted June 9, 2016 Report Share Posted June 9, 2016 Can we get the title of this thread changed? "Nina Watch 2016-2017" maybe? The Nino is dead now, and the Nina is on the horizon And Cliff Mass made it official today!http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/ 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted June 9, 2016 Report Share Posted June 9, 2016 Third time's the charm. thank you sir Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
epiceast Posted June 10, 2016 Report Share Posted June 10, 2016 Such a weird SST map. Anyway I'm stoked for a La Nina. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 10, 2016 Report Share Posted June 10, 2016 Updated SSTA map. I am beginning to think there is hope this will just be a moderate Nina... which I think is better for blocking. Although I have been told otherwise. We are running quite a bit behind some of our analog years. http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.6.9.2016.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 12, 2016 Report Share Posted June 12, 2016 For the first time this year, we have a -AAM. Looks like the next trade wind burst starts in ~ 5 days. Will be a new round of cooling, along with a drop in the PDO. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 12, 2016 Report Share Posted June 12, 2016 Here she comes, this one should be more permanent as lowfreq IO/EHEM forcing is gradually taking over vs the dying MJO/propagatory forcing. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted June 12, 2016 Report Share Posted June 12, 2016 Here she comes, this one should be more permanent as lowfreq IO/EHEM forcing is gradually taking over vs the dying MJO/propagatory forcing. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.gifBeat me to it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 13, 2016 Report Share Posted June 13, 2016 Update:http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.6.13.2016.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 13, 2016 Report Share Posted June 13, 2016 Yeah, some short-lived warming/downwelling associated with the recent westerly surge (Pacific/WHEM forcing). This reverses in a big way over the next 10 days, though, possibly dropping SSTs into La Niña territory: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif So, we'll probably observe a significant cooling begin later this week, into next week, along with a drop in the PDO given developing low frequency anticyclonic wind/current anomalies over the relevant portion of the basin. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted June 16, 2016 Report Share Posted June 16, 2016 Easterly winds have returned Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 17, 2016 Report Share Posted June 17, 2016 Update... http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.6.16.2016.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 17, 2016 Report Share Posted June 17, 2016 The PDO is going to drop like a rock over the next 4 weeks, given anomalous low frequency anticyclonic flow over the NPAC. Might see La Niña conditions emerge in areas, too. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted June 19, 2016 Report Share Posted June 19, 2016 PDO flipping and eastern ENSO regions really cooling off over the past 7 days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 19, 2016 Report Share Posted June 19, 2016 PDO flipping and eastern ENSO regions really cooling off over the past 7 days.I'm pretty surprised we've seen warming of our offshore SSTs given the pattern we've been in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 19, 2016 Report Share Posted June 19, 2016 PDO flipping and eastern ENSO regions really cooling off over the past 7 days.Updated map shows rapid cooling. At this rate we'll reach new lows within the week. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted June 19, 2016 Report Share Posted June 19, 2016 Updated map shows rapid cooling. At this rate we'll reach new lows within the week. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.pngHad no idea that updated that often. There's a lot of change in that short duration Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted June 20, 2016 Report Share Posted June 20, 2016 There has/is a very obvious reconfiguration of the global pattern we have been in for several years finally. I expect a very different year ahead to what we have been seeing. Should be fun to watch and see what happens, but at the least I would expect less persistent warm anomalies. Doesn't mean we won't have some, but less than its been. Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 21, 2016 Report Share Posted June 21, 2016 Well, that didn't take long. Already down to new lows in Niño3, with Niño3.4 to follow: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino3.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 21, 2016 Report Share Posted June 21, 2016 Update: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.6.20.2016.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westiztehbest Posted June 24, 2016 Report Share Posted June 24, 2016 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted June 25, 2016 Report Share Posted June 25, 2016 Was going to share this as well. Appears that low frequency forcing is beginning to take hold as the Easterlies over the ENSO regions are forecasted to continue, despite MJO pushing over the Pacific. This is definitely a welcomed change, as I was concerned another reversal in low level winds was on the horizon. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted June 26, 2016 Report Share Posted June 26, 2016 Was going to share this as well. Appears that low frequency forcing is beginning to take hold as the Easterlies over the ENSO regions are forecasted to continue, despite MJO pushing over the Pacific. This is definitely a welcomed change, as I was concerned another reversal in low level winds was on the horizon. Definitely seeing the changes set in on longer time scales now with a real regime change in progress. 1 Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 5, 2016 Report Share Posted July 5, 2016 Who's ready for round three? Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted July 7, 2016 Report Share Posted July 7, 2016 Who's ready for round three? image.jpegPropagatory forcing should line up nicely for a healthy cooling of the ENSO regions 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 8, 2016 Report Share Posted July 8, 2016 Updated Scripps forecast. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 9, 2016 Report Share Posted July 9, 2016 Scripps is the one that tends to overdo things, right? Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 9, 2016 Report Share Posted July 9, 2016 Scripps is the one that tends to overdo things, right? Maybe a little. It's been fairly steady with a high end moderate Nina or strong one. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted July 11, 2016 Report Share Posted July 11, 2016 Another round of ENSO region upwelling and cooling on the way during the last half of July as MJO propagates back into the Eastern Hemisphere. The last round of EHem forcing is apparent when looking at the 850mb winds. The MJO is currently running at a roughly 30 day cycle, which is on the low end of it's 30-60 day potential duration 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 11, 2016 Report Share Posted July 11, 2016 That's a much better longitudinally-oriented trade wind burst too. Dateline easterlies assist in steepening the thermocline tilt around 120W, promoting upwelling there. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 12, 2016 Report Share Posted July 12, 2016 Here she comes: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.7.11.2016.gif Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted July 12, 2016 Report Share Posted July 12, 2016 Here she comes: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.7.11.2016.gifLove seeing the warm pool develop as the PDO slowly begins its demise 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 12, 2016 Report Share Posted July 12, 2016 Cold pool looking better! Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted July 14, 2016 Report Share Posted July 14, 2016 Most of the West coast has slightly below normal sea surface temperatures, but they remain above average off the Southern California coast. This July is similar to 2010 with dominant troughing over the Pac NW, but down here it's been very hard to get a thick marine layer with the warm sea surface temperatures. July 2010 had very cold sea surface temperatures in Southern California, dropping into the 50s at times and beach areas got almost no sun all summer long. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 20, 2016 Report Share Posted July 20, 2016 At least off the CA coast the waters are below normal. Quite a bit of cooling going on off the coast. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 20, 2016 Report Share Posted July 20, 2016 Hey there, La Niña. Missed ya. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 20, 2016 Report Share Posted July 20, 2016 Hey there, La Niña. Missed ya. image.jpegYou have not missed La Nina. Hot summers and warm winters! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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