January 2014 in the PNW

[Deweydog]

I think if everyone was all a little more up front about whether they're being clinically negative, emotionally negative, self-protectively negative, obnoxiously negative, deceptively negative, ambiguously negative, angrily negative, healthily neutral, frustratingly neutral, genuinely neutral, clinically neutral, robotically neutral, ENSO neutral, cautiously optimistic, overly optimistic, emotionally optimistic, self-medicatingly optimistic, unmedicatingly optimistic, naturopathically optimistic, realistically optimistic, optimistically optimistic or paste-eater optimistic it might help get the MJO to drop down DIRECTLY over us.

[Gradient Keeper]

I think if everyone was all a little more up front about whether they're being clinically negative, emotionally negative, self-protectively negative, obnoxiously negative, deceptively negative, ambiguously negative, angrily negative, healthily neutral, frustratingly neutral, genuinely neutral, clinically neutral, robotically neutral, ENSO neutral, cautiously optimistic, overly optimistic, emotionally optimistic, self-medicatingly optimistic, unmedicatingly optimistic, naturopathically optimistic, realistically optimistic, optimistically optimistic or paste-eater optimistic it might help get the MJO to drop down DIRECTLY over us.

I'm cautiously realistic. Winter is over for the low lands below 1000'. It is Done. Put your shovels away. Take off the studs. Start gardening early. Hook the outdoor hoses back up. Do your yearly maintenance on your lawn mower, or other equipment. Sharpen those pruning shears or hedge clippers. It's over. Done. The fat lady is singing and it's awful. She can't keep a note, she's tone deaf, and no one is applauding. No standing "O"vation this time. Obviously HAARP has manipulated the jet stream and controls the MJO now. What about the GLAAM? that model indice was the back in the 1980s.

[Deweydog]

I'm cautiously realistic. Winter is over for the low lands below 1000'. It is Done. Put your shovels away. Take off the studs. Start gardening early. Hook the outdoor hoses back up. Do your yearly maintenance on your lawn mower, or other equipment. Sharpen those pruning shears or hedge clippers. It's over. Done. The fat lady is singing and it's awful. She can't keep a note, she's tone deaf, and no one is applauding. No standing "O"vation this time. Obviously HAARP has manipulated the jet stream and controls the MJO now. What about the GLAAM? that model indice was the s**t back in the 1980s.

 

This is stupid.  Our grass DID wake up over the weekend, however.  Did the same thing last year though before we got clobbered in February.  

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS sucked balls. It delays any potential pattern change beyond day 10, then reverts back to looking ridgy.

 

12z GEM decimates the ridge says "Dude, go blow yourself right in the ridges face" and what's this? We actually see a deepening area of low pressure approaching from the southwest at day 9-10. Exciting.

 

12z EURO breaks down the ridge with some form of northwest flow aloft. Jet doesn't look strong, but cooler and moister with mountain snow would be the outcome.

[Gradient Keeper]

This is stupid.  Our grass DID wake up over the weekend, however.  Did the same thing last year though before we got clobbered in February.  

It's incredibly stupid. I just think Winter is over for us down here. We're not privileged enough to live up in Tim land. Heck, he may be done too.

 

Edit: or Andrew land. Lucky bastards

[TT-SEA]

It's incredibly stupid. I just think Winter is over for us down here. We're not privileged enough to live up in Tim land. Heck, he may be done too.

 

Edit: or Andrew land. Lucky bastards

 

 

Tell me that when its 85 and sunny there on a summer day and 62 and cloudy here!

[Deweydog]

Tell me that when its 85 and sunny there on a summer day and 62 and cloudy here!

 

F'n A, Cotton!

[BLI snowman]

This is stupid.  Our grass DID wake up over the weekend, however.  Did the same thing last year though before we got clobbered in February.  

 

Clobbered with warm front drizzle?

[TT-SEA]

Biggest mistake I made was taking down the shovels from the attic above the garage in late October. Jinxed it. Have not used them even once!

[Deweydog]

Clobbered with warm front drizzle?

 

It's worse in person than it is on paper.  You didn't live it.  

[BLI snowman]

Biggest mistake I made was taking down the shovels from the attic above the garage in late October. Jinxed it. Have not used them even once!

 

Duh, then you should put them back. Then it will snow a bunch.

[BLI snowman]

It's worse in person than it is on paper.  You didn't live it.  

 

2/1-2/28/2013

 

Never Forget

[snow_wizard]

Very nice 18z run. It's no surprise the run to run consistency is so horrible given the circumstances. All of the runs are fairly consistent around the Aleutians, but some dig the downstream energy toward us and some take it SW which results in a disastrous run. The big story IMO is the strong positive anoms the ECMWF has been setting up over the NW GOA in early Feb. If that verifies we should be seeing some pretty serious cold in the second week of Feb. Still can't rule out the first of week of Feb though. Some GFS runs have been fabulous in that time frame.

[snow_wizard]

I sure can't figure out why some people are saying winter is over when pretty much every forecasting tool says Feb will be cold. But whatever floats their boats I guess.

[TT-SEA]

I sure can't figure out why some people are saying winter is over when pretty much every forecasting tool says Feb will be cold. But whatever floats their boats I guess.

 

 

Sure as hell could be lots of chilly rain in February and still be classified as 'cold'.

 

Not going to generate much excitement on here if that is the case.     

[Deweydog]

I sure can't figure out why some people are saying winter is over when pretty much every forecasting tool says Feb will be cold. But whatever floats their boats I guess.

 

Did you copy/paste this from 30 days ago and just change Jan to Feb?  

 

If so, well done.  Work smarter, not harder.  

[Skagit Weather]

Very nice 18z run. It's no surprise the run to run consistency is so horrible given the circumstances. All of the runs are fairly consistent around the Aleutians, but some dig the downstream energy toward us and some take it SW which results in a disastrous run. The big story IMO is the strong positive anoms the ECMWF has been setting up over the NW GOA in early Feb. If that verifies we should be seeing some pretty serious cold in the second week of Feb. Still can't rule out the first of week of Feb though. Some GFS runs have been fabulous in that time frame.

Yeah, even if it is way off in the long range and never comes to fruition, I enjoy seeing at least some hope in the model runs. It has been nice to see something showing up in the models instead of just solid ridge day after day.

[TT-SEA]

I sure can't figure out why some people are saying winter is over when pretty much every forecasting tool says Feb will be cold. But whatever floats their boats I guess.

 

 

You sure were convinced that January was going to be cold.     Who would give up on January???     That is crazy.     Or was it?  

[Skagit Weather]

Finally got down to freezing again today after a two week hiatus. Maybe after tonight (which looks like it will remain mostly cloudy) I can string some nice subfreezing lows together. 29.6F this morning.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, even if it is way off in the long range and never comes to fruition, I enjoy seeing at least some hope in the model runs. It has been nice to see something showing up in the models instead of just solid ridge day after day.

 

 

There is absolutely no way the ridge continues through February.    When its ridgy from November - January... then its almost guaranteed to be more stormy and wet in February.    

 

I still think we end up with chilly zonal flow... tons of lowland rain and mountain snow.      Just fine overall... building up mountain snowpack and possibly setting up a better pattern later in the spring.

 

But I think there is only a small chance of much lowland cold and snow excitement next month.    That will wait until mid-March.  

[BLI snowman]

It has literally been forever since we were hit in the February 5-10 timeframe. Looking at the record lows for that week at SEA and PDX is hilarious and pathetic. That period was great in the 1930s and then there's been nothing since. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Uhhh, I'm no expert, but a [Fire Weather Watch] issued during January? Is this a first?

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
255 PM PST TUE JAN 21 2014

...STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW BRINGS DRY WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE RIDGES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER RIDGE NORTH OF THE REGION AND A CLOSED LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL BRING STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK. WITH THE EXCEPTIONALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR... COMBINED WITH AN EXTREME LACK OF PRECIP SO FAR THIS YEAR...THIS VERY DRY AND STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE RIDGE LEVEL WILL BRING A VERY UNUSUAL FIRE DANGER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR A DETAILED VIEW OF THE POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER DANGER AREA GO TO; GO.USA.GOV/ZYV5

WESTERN KLAMATH NATIONAL FOREST-
CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY INCLUDING SHASTA VALLEY-SHASTA-
TRINITY NATIONAL FOREST IN SISKIYOU COUNTY-
SISKIYOU COUNTY FROM THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS EAST AND SOUTH TO MT SHASTA-SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON COAST-UMPQUA BASIN-UMPQUA NATIONAL FOREST-WESTERN ROGUE RIVER-
SISKIYOU NATIONAL FOREST-WESTERN ROGUE BASIN INCLUDING THE ILLINOIS VALLEY-SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS-EASTERN ROGUE VALLEY-SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES-
255 PM PST TUE JAN 21 2014

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 280...281...282...284...615...616...617...619...620...621...622 AND 623...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

* AFFECTED AREA: FIRE WEATHER ZONES 281...622...282...284... 621... 615... 623... 616...617...280...620 AND 619 THE GREATEST
DANGER WILL BE IN ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FT.

* WIND...EAST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.

* HUMIDITY...MAXIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...DRY AIR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH.

* FOR A DETAILED VIEW OF THE HAZARD AREA...VISITHTTP://WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/WRH/WHV/?WFO=MFR

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE MAY OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Uhhh, I'm no expert, but a [Fire Weather Watch] issued during January? Is this a first?

 

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR

255 PM PST TUE JAN 21 2014

 

...STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW BRINGS DRY WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE RIDGES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

 

.THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER RIDGE NORTH OF THE REGION AND A CLOSED LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL BRING STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK. WITH THE EXCEPTIONALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR... COMBINED WITH AN EXTREME LACK OF PRECIP SO FAR THIS YEAR...THIS VERY DRY AND STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE RIDGE LEVEL WILL BRING A VERY UNUSUAL FIRE DANGER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR A DETAILED VIEW OF THE POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER DANGER AREA GO TO; GO.USA.GOV/ZYV5

 

WESTERN KLAMATH NATIONAL FOREST-

CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY INCLUDING SHASTA VALLEY-SHASTA-

TRINITY NATIONAL FOREST IN SISKIYOU COUNTY-

SISKIYOU COUNTY FROM THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS EAST AND SOUTH TO MT SHASTA-SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON COAST-UMPQUA BASIN-UMPQUA NATIONAL FOREST-WESTERN ROGUE RIVER-

SISKIYOU NATIONAL FOREST-WESTERN ROGUE BASIN INCLUDING THE ILLINOIS VALLEY-SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS-EASTERN ROGUE VALLEY-SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES-

255 PM PST TUE JAN 21 2014

 

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 280...281...282...284...615...616...617...619...620...621...622 AND 623...

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

 

* AFFECTED AREA: FIRE WEATHER ZONES 281...622...282...284... 621... 615... 623... 616...617...280...620 AND 619 THE GREATEST

DANGER WILL BE IN ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FT.

 

* WIND...EAST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.

 

* HUMIDITY...MAXIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT.

 

* IMPACTS...DRY AIR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH.

 

* FOR A DETAILED VIEW OF THE HAZARD AREA...VISITHTTP://WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/WRH/WHV/?WFO=MFR

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE MAY OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS.

 

It was reported on our neighborhood Facebook page today that there was a fire in the woods close to our development this morning. I am not sure if this is true or not but will find out when I get home and report back. If it was indeed a fire I must admit that this would be a first for January.

[Phil]

Anyone who wants their snow fix can come have a beer with me! #satan

[50shadesofvan]

Hi Everyone,

 

I formally introduced myself over in the 'hi' section, but I thought I would share my latest post from 50 Shades of Van. Lurked here for ages, but I want to start contributing a little bit to these forums. 

 

Also, I don't want to make a habit of posting my own blog posts here, because this forum isn't really meant for constant blog spam and self-promotion and such. 

 

Latest Post: http://50shadesofvan.com/blog/2014/1/21/skiers

• The resilient ridge: It will get worse before it gets better
• A look (with ensembles) at the possible demise of the ridge and return to mountain snows
• Brief examination of some teleconnections (People who are experts will find this very elementary)

 

Cheers. 

[TT-SEA]

Cool sunset this evening... band of high clouds cleared just in time as I was picking up milk.  

 

[Jesse]

Cool sunset this evening... band of high clouds cleared just in time as I was picking up milk.

 

QFC? Yuppie.

[snow_wizard]

It was reported on our neighborhood Facebook page today that there was a fire in the woods close to our development this morning. I am not sure if this is true or not but will find out when I get home and report back. If it was indeed a fire I must admit that this would be a first for January.

Somebody had to of deliberately set it. It has been very wet due to the fog.

[snow_wizard]

Hi Everyone,

 

I formally introduced myself over in the 'hi' section, but I thought I would share my latest post from 50 Shades of Van. Lurked here for ages, but I want to start contributing a little bit to these forums. 

 

Also, I don't want to make a habit of posting my own blog posts here, because this forum isn't really meant for constant blog spam and self-promotion and such. 

 

Latest Post: http://50shadesofvan.com/blog/2014/1/21/skiers

• The resilient ridge: It will get worse before it gets better
• A look (with ensembles) at the possible demise of the ridge and return to mountain snows
• Brief examination of some teleconnections (People who are experts will find this very elementary)

Cheers.

 

Hi,

 

If you mean the ridge will be worse then you must mean the next week to 10 days. After that it's over.

[TT-SEA]

Somebody had to of deliberately set it. It has been very wet due to the fog.

 

Not here.    Absolutely bone dry.    

 

And with the east wind cranking last night and this morning and with everything dormant... I could see a small fire happening.

[Deweydog]

Not here.    Absolutely bone dry.    

 

And with the east wind cranking last night and this morning and with everything dormant... I could see a small fire happening.

 

RH's have been incredibly low in the thermal belt on several occasions this month.  Typically it's controlled burns getting out of hand this time of year.  

[Phil]

Hi,

 

If you mean the ridge will be worse then you must mean the next week to 10 days. After that it's over.

That's not a given.

[snow_wizard]

It has literally been forever since we were hit in the February 5-10 timeframe. Looking at the record lows for that week at SEA and PDX is hilarious and pathetic. That period was great in the 1930s and then there's been nothing since.

There was some snow in this area in that time frame in 1985. The 1985 to 1990 time frame had 3 decent Februaries, but since then it's been pretty bad alright. It used to be normal to have lowland snow in at least half of our Februaries. Check out the average Feb snowfall for Seattle for each decade back to the 1880s. I'm not sure of the Feb average for 2000-09 due to no records begin kept. It was pretty bad though.

 

1880s - 8.4" (average is a collection of a few locations in the central Puget Sound)

1890s - 6.4"

1900s - 1.2"

1910s - 6.3"

1920s - 3.0"

1930 - 1.9" (in spite of some very cold Febs that decade)

1940s - 1.3"

1950s - 2.7"

1960s - 0.8"

1970s - 0.3" (the worst decade)

1980s - 1.4"

1990s - 1.4"

2000s

2010s - 0.5" so far (some places obviously are much higher due to 2011)

 

Again these numbers are averages for each Feb in the given decade.

[snow_wizard]

That's not a given.

A major pattern shakeup is 80% or higher to happen. Even the ECMWF ensemble is adamant on that now.

[snow_wizard]

Finally got down to freezing again today after a two week hiatus. Maybe after tonight (which looks like it will remain mostly cloudy) I can string some nice subfreezing lows together. 29.6F this morning.

I have been pretty lucky here to come up with 6 freezing low temps in the last week.

[TT-SEA]

A major pattern shakeup is 80% or higher to happen. Even the ECMWF ensemble is adamant on that now.

 

 

Its going to rain Jim... quite a bit I believe.   

 

I am thinking we picked the best month to go to Hawaii this winter.   

 

Because I am not even tired of winter at this point.    Its been too frickin pleasant.

[Jesse]

I have been pretty lucky here to come up with 6 freezing low temps in the last week.

 

I don't think Skagit weather's stats are very representative of any lowland location.

 

I have also seen six consecutive sub-freezing lows. Tomorrow morning should be #7.

 

Even PDX saw their fourth freeze in a row this morning.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What a beautiful day again today. I should have called in sick. Instead I ended up going down to Albany for several hours, where the fog never broke up.

[Guest Winterdog]

I don't think Skagit weather's stats are very representative of any lowland location.

 

I have also seen six consecutive sub-freezing lows. Tomorrow morning should be #7.

 

Even PDX saw their fourth freeze in a row this morning.

I know it's an old subject but Sea-Tac hasn't had a freezing temp since the 8th.  It is just amazing how unrepresentative of the area that station is.

[TT-SEA]

What a beautiful day again today. I should have called in sick. Instead I ended up going down to Albany for several hours, where the fog never broke up.

 

 

56/40 here with an east wind and lots of sunshine until about 3 p.m.

 

No haze or any sign of low level moisture.