January 2014 in the PNW

[brody]

        ^ LOL... oh god I could do this all day.... *calms down.... inject tranquilizers*

Somebody needs to put your a** in timeout for a few  

[Gradient Keeper]

30 minutes until 18z ensembles are out on that goofy a** German site.... Will it dash all hopes? Will it be in good agreement with the operational? or... or.... OH MAN

[Gradient Keeper]

Somebody needs to put your a** in timeout for a few

I know, right?...

[brody]

30 minutes until 18z ensembles are out on that goofy a** German site.... Will it dash all hopes? Will it be in good agreement with the operational? or... or.... OH MAN

Ich fühle mich ein paar Mitglied sra egoing noch kälter sein

[Gradient Keeper]

Ich fühle mich ein paar Mitglied sra egoing noch kälter sein

I almost appeared to be excited or in suspense. .. Oh, ya  few might members might be colder.

 

Solange es kein Todes Grat, ich könnte einen Ständer Pop, das ist, was sie sagte! LOL

[Sometimesdylan]

http://www.ktoo.org/2014/01/27/highway-to-valdez-remains-blocked-by-avalanches/

 

This warm weather has been pretty crazy up here. Valdez is now isolated. Huge avalanche, check the video in the link.

[brody]

 

 

Solange es kein Todes Grat, ich könnte einen Ständer Pop, das ist, was sie sagte! LOL

 

Lol

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

It would be the shits if the 18z didn't come true.

[Gradient Keeper]

It would be the shits if the 18z didn't come true.

Yes, it would indeed be the shits.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS in 4 1/2 Stunden
00z GEM in 5 Stunden
00z EURO in 7 Stunden 2 Minuten

 

Ich hoffe, dass die Dynamik von Build-12z EURO / Ensembles und jetzt 18z GFS sehen. FTW!

[stuffradio]

The Weather is so warm, it made everyone start Deutche lerne.

Ich sprechen mit Tisch und Google translate. lol

[Gradient Keeper]

The Weather is so warm, it made everyone start Deutche lerne.

Ich sprechen mit Tisch und Google translate. lol

Ya, good ole Google Translator.

[Skagit Weather]

http://www.ktoo.org/2014/01/27/highway-to-valdez-remains-blocked-by-avalanches/

 

This warm weather has been pretty crazy up here. Valdez is now isolated. Huge avalanche, check the video in the link.

Let's play find the road. Oh, wait there it is in the upper left corner at 1:30 into the video!

I saw some of the pictures and they are pretty amazing. It makes the North Cascades avalanches on Highway 20 look like small powdery snow drifts. I wonder how long it really will take to clear that.

[stuffradio]

I am working on learning German for real from time to time in my spare time, but I was just throwing random words at Google Translator to be funny.

[Gradient Keeper]

Let's play find the road. Oh, wait there it is in the upper left corner at 1:30 into the video!

I saw some of the pictures and they are pretty amazing. It makes the North Cascades avalanches on Highway 20 look like small powdery snow drifts. I wonder how long it really will take to clear that.

Absolutely amazing video.... Might it take until Spring ? I don't see how they could remove ALL of that.... and the ice jam... and ya.

[50shadesofvan]

30 minutes until 18z ensembles are out on that goofy a** German site.... Will it dash all hopes? Will it be in good agreement with the operational? or... or.... OH MAN

Love that goofy German ensemble site -- I included a screenshot of it on my post today. Who gets credit for finding it? Was it you Rob?

[Gradient Keeper]

Love that goofy German ensemble site -- I included a screenshot of it on my post today. Who gets credit for finding it? Was it you Rob?

Nope. I don't remember who found it, but it sure is a handy site. Occasionally though it does update slowly.

[Guest Monty67]

Absolutely amazing video.... Might it take until Spring ? I don't see how they could remove ALL of that.... and the ice jam... and ya.

Just imagine if a cold snap hits and that water freezes.

[TT-SEA]

Looked at the details from the GFS output... next week is clear and cold.

 

But without clouds or snow on the ground the results might not be what people are expecting.

 

In February of 2006... with an 850mb temp of -15C at SEA the days were sunny and breezy with highs mostly in the low 40s and lows in the 20s.    I remember it well.    We actually went to the top of the Space Needle on one of those days and it was crystal clear but it actually did not feel that cold during the day.

 

We need this thing to evolve into a wetter solution or there is going to be some frustrated people particularly in WA even with 850mb temps down to -15C.    

 

Time will tell.   I am sure Jim will say its guaranteed we will go into this with lots of snow on the ground.   But that is not the case.   Far from a guarantee.    The December event was largely forgettable up here while epic in OR.    

 

February is quite different than December when looking at tangible effects on the ground.   Its more like late October or very early November.    

 

The happiness with this event is going to be 100% tied to the amount of snow it can deliver.     You can't sled or play in cold stats.   

[Gradient Keeper]

Looked at the details from the GFS output... next week is clear and cold.

 

But without clouds or snow on the ground the results might not be what people are expecting.

 

In February of 2006... with an 850mb temp of -15C at SEA the days were sunny and breezy with highs mostly in the low 40s and lows in the 20s.    I remember it well.    We actually went to the top of the Space Needle on one of those days and it was crystal clear but it actually did not feel that cold during the day.

 

We need this thing to evolve into a wetter solution or there is going to be some frustrated people particularly in WA even with 850mb temps down to -15C.    

 

Time will tell.   I am sure Jim will say its guaranteed we will go into this with lots of snow on the ground.   But that is not the case.    

 

February is quite different than December when looking at tangible effects on the ground.   Its more like late October.    

Get the cold here first(IF it does), then worry about moisture details. 1 step at a time, Tim, 1 step at a time.

[bainbridgekid]

Looked at the details from the GFS output... next week is clear and cold.

 

But without clouds or snow on the ground the results might not be what people are expecting.

 

In February of 2006... with an 850mb temp of -15C at SEA the days were sunny and breezy with highs mostly in the low 40s and lows in the 20s.    I remember it well.    We actually went to the top of the Space Needle on one of those days and it was crystal clear but it actually did not feel that cold during the day.

 

We need this thing to evolve into a wetter solution or there is going to be some frustrated people particularly in WA even with 850mb temps down to -15C.    

 

Time will tell.   I am sure Jim will say its guaranteed we will go into this with lots of snow on the ground.   But that is not the case.   Far from a guarantee.    The December event was largely forgettable up here while epic in OR.    

 

February is quite different than December when looking at tangible effects on the ground.   Its more like late October.    

 

The happiness with this event is going to be 100% tied to the amount of snow it can deliver.     You can't sled or play in cold stats.   

 

Early February is more like Early December as far as potential cold around here goes.

 

It's true that most of our happiness will be 95% tied to the amount of snow we get though.

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GFS Ensembles. Through day 9-10 A bit better. The Mean down to -7c for Portland. Several members -10c or colder and less warmer members. Beyond day 10 the operational is an outlier, but we're not focusing beyond day 10 for once.

 

Portland

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

[TT-SEA]

Get the cold here first(IF it does), then worry about moisture details. 1 step at a time, Tim, 1 step at a time.

 

Of course.   But sometimes we get too much cold air which does not allow for precip.   For a memorable event GOING INTO cold air... its a fine balance.   

[TT-SEA]

 

Early February is more like Early December as far as potential cold around here goes.

 

 

We will be about 47 days past the winter solstice when this event peaks.   

 

Back up from December 20th and you back in early November.      By February 9th... its comparable to late October sun angle.   Which is why events after February 5th become much more rare.   Very rare actually.    Jim will point to one day or another... but there is a big change around 2/5 and it has to do with sun angle.   

 

I remember having this discussion endlessly in 2006... and it was not really that cold during the day in the sunshine.    Exception being Lynden and Ferndale.  

 

We want wetter and maybe warmer solutions!     Trust me... just cold is only going to satisfy one person on here.  

[HighlandExperience]

Looked at the details from the GFS output... next week is clear and cold.

 

But without clouds or snow on the ground the results might not be what people are expecting.

 

 

Without snow on the ground daytime temps will be in the upper 30s and low 40s. Heck Sea Tac probably will hit 40. Not very impressive.

[bainbridgekid]

We will be about 47 days past the winter solstice when this event peaks.   

 

Back up from December 20th and you back in early November.      By February 9th... we are comparable to late October sun angle.     

 

I remember having this discussion endless in 2006... and it was not really that cold during the days in the sunshine.    Exception being Lynden and Ferndale.  

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seasonal_lag

[TT-SEA]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seasonal_lag

 

Whatever.

 

Does not work around here too well.

 

We have discussed this endlessly over the years.    

[Guest Winterdog]

http://www.ktoo.org/2014/01/27/highway-to-valdez-remains-blocked-by-avalanches/

 

This warm weather has been pretty crazy up here. Valdez is now isolated. Huge avalanche, check the video in the link.

Amazing that they think they can get that highway opened up within a week.

[GHweatherChris]

Looked at the details from the GFS output... next week is clear and cold.

 

But without clouds or snow on the ground the results might not be what people are expecting.

 

In February of 2006... with an 850mb temp of -15C at SEA the days were sunny and breezy with highs mostly in the low 40s and lows in the 20s.    I remember it well.    We actually went to the top of the Space Needle on one of those days and it was crystal clear but it actually did not feel that cold during the day.

 

We need this thing to evolve into a wetter solution or there is going to be some frustrated people particularly in WA even with 850mb temps down to -15C.    

 

Time will tell.   I am sure Jim will say its guaranteed we will go into this with lots of snow on the ground.   But that is not the case.   Far from a guarantee.    The December event was largely forgettable up here while epic in OR.    

 

February is quite different than December when looking at tangible effects on the ground.   Its more like late October or very early November.    

 

The happiness with this event is going to be 100% tied to the amount of snow it can deliver.     You can't sled or play in cold stats.   

Exactly.

 

If we do not get any somewhat good snow accumulation out of this(if it even happens), then I will not be impressed at all.

[bainbridgekid]

Whatever.

 

Does not work around here too well.

 

We have discussed this endlessly over the years.    

I understand where you are coming from and agreed with the majority of your post.

 

But your comparison of February to October was just silly. 

 

Seattle averages a high of 50 in February and a high of 60 in October. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Amazing that they think they can get that highway opened up within a week.

I'm no expert in this field(no really) but, within 1 week? No chance. No way.

[brody]

Nome AK hit 51F today shattering their all time high temp by 5 degrees

[TT-SEA]

I understand where you are coming from and agreed with the majority of your post.

 

But your comparison of February to October was just silly.

 

Seattle averages a high of 50 in February and a high of 60 in October.

Very late October and early November.

[brody]

I'm no expert in this field(no really) but, within 1 week? No chance. No way.

Just mix a couple thousand tons of thermite and watch that disappear 

[bainbridgekid]

Very late October and early November.

I just don't understand this debate.

 

It is a verifiable fact that, despite the higher sun angle, February is colder even than November.

 

Seattle averages 50/37 in February and 51/40 in November.

 

Just way more cold air to work with.

[TT-SEA]

I just don't understand this debate.

 

It is a verifiable fact that, despite the higher sun angle, February is colder even than November.

 

Seattle averages 50/37 in February and 51/40 in November.

 

Just way more cold air to work with.

That is 1 degree on the high.

 

Its just the way it works... if a dry, sunny, cold solution like the 18Z run verifies then SEA will have some 41/27 type days with a bare ground.

 

It will be December all over... just slightly warmer and people are not going to remember it.   

 

Could be awesome for Oregon though.    Again.

 

Jim is about to come on here and attack me for even suggesting this... but we really want a wetter and maybe warmer set-up to evolve for those people less concerned with cold stats and more concerned with playing in snow during the peak of the cold air.   Which is pretty much everyone but Jim.  

[Gradient Keeper]

Just 3 1/2 hours until 00z GFS!

4 hours until 00z GEM!

5 hours 55 minutes until 00z EURO!

You can't tell me you're not the slightest bit intrigued or perhaps anxious to see these runs. Maybe a tad?

[bainbridgekid]

That is 1 degree on the high!

Yeah, but you were comparing early February to late October.

 

Seattle averages 48/36 on February 1st and 47/37 on December 1st. Virtually identical.

 

So early February is more like late November/early December. You were off by a month. No biggy.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, but you were comparing early February to late October.

 

Seattle averages 48/36 on February 1st and 47/37 on December 1st. Virtually identical.

 

So early February is more like late November/early December. You were off by a month. No biggy.

Whatever.   February 5th is 47 days past the winter solstice.      

 

Its different than December.

 

But if we have clouds and precip there should be very little difference.   Big 'IF' right now.

 

Sunshine with an 850mb temp of -15C, bare ground, and strong outflow produces upper 30s and low 40s in February in Seattle.     That is a fact.    

 

It was 42 today at SEA under that endless inversion.

[TT-SEA]

51 here today with a stiff east breeze today and no haze at all.