bainbridgekid Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 Whatever. February 5th is 47 days past the winter solstice. Its different than December. But if we have clouds and precip there should be very little difference. Big 'IF' right now.Yeah and August 7th is 47 days past the Summer solstice. You would never compare early August to early May though. 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 Yeah and August 7th is 47 days past the Summer solstice. You would never compare early August to early May though. True... but as Dewey has pointed out... our climate is skewed to the warm season. That is just how it works here. Our anomalous cold potential is more limited than our anomalous warm potential later in the respective seasons. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 Looked at the details from the GFS output... next week is clear and cold. But without clouds or snow on the ground the results might not be what people are expecting. In February of 2006... with an 850mb temp of -15C at SEA the days were sunny and breezy with highs mostly in the low 40s and lows in the 20s. I remember it well. We actually went to the top of the Space Needle on one of those days and it was crystal clear but it actually did not feel that cold during the day. We need this thing to evolve into a wetter solution or there is going to be some frustrated people particularly in WA even with 850mb temps down to -15C. Time will tell. I am sure Jim will say its guaranteed we will go into this with lots of snow on the ground. But that is not the case. Far from a guarantee. The December event was largely forgettable up here while epic in OR. February is quite different than December when looking at tangible effects on the ground. Its more like late October or very early November. The happiness with this event is going to be 100% tied to the amount of snow it can deliver. You can't sled or play in cold stats. Yeah... not worried about it at all are ya? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 Whatever. Does not work around here too well. We have discussed this endlessly over the years. Seasonal lag definitely plays a much larger role out near the Great Lakes, it's very significant there, but no so much out west. I'd agree with the notion, however, that early February is similar to early December. Around the Great Lakes region early February really is the half way point of winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 Yeah... not worried about it at all are ya? Not really worried. Honestly. Would like some snow going into the cold so the kids are happy. Next week looks nice either way. Sunny, cold, and dry is fine with me... even if its not memorable for anyone. I hope there is snow going into the cold to save us the endless argument about people's perception on here. I know it will be in the low 40s if its sunny next week in Seattle and it will not seem like much. With a good dump of snow it will be very memorable and there will be nothing to debate. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 This run isn't as good as the 12z for the PNW, but continues the theme of modified arctic air. Looks like I nailed my 10 day forecast: modified arctic air, no significant snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 True... but as Dewey has pointed out... our climate is skewed to the warm season. That is just how it works here. Our anomalous cold potential is more limited than our anomalous warm potential later in the respective seasons. Don't drag me into this... Everyone knows our seasonal lag is far more prominent in the warm season. It's clearly represented statistically. The anecdotal comparisons you're making are just silly though and clearly an attempt to get a rise out of people, or just Jim. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 Looks like I nailed my 10 day forecast: modified arctic air, no significant snow. You made that 10 days ago? No snow today, but no Arctic air either. Fail. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 You made that 10 days ago? No snow today, but no Arctic air either. Fail. No, I made it a couple days ago. I got scrutinized for disregarding an arctic blast in the first week of Feb. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 Looks like I nailed my 10 day forecast: modified arctic air, no significant snow. Except that is hasn't happened yet. Let's not pat ourselves on the back until the event actually occurs. Too far out to even discuss such details right now. This IS the funniest post I've read all day though, and there's been some stiff competition. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 I think it's time for Tim to go back on mod preview. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 Don't drag me into this... Everyone knows our seasonal lag is far more prominent in the warm season. It's clearly represented statistically. The anecdotal comparisons you're making are just silly though and clearly an attempt to get a rise out of people, or just Jim. OK. How is the comparison silly? Without a prominent cold seasonal lag... February skews warmer than you would expect. We need precip and clouds next week! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 PDX and SEA have had highs below freezing with clear, dry air well into late February, btw. I had a high of 31 in Orchards on 2/25/11 with full sunshine and light east winds. No snowcover to hold things down either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brody Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 No, I made it a couple days ago. I got scrutinized for disregarding an arctic blast in the first week of Feb.In which case you will STILL likely fail Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 PDX and SEA have had highs below freezing with clear, dry air well into late February, btw. I am using February 2006 as a gauge. Very similar set-up it appears right now. The outflow was intense... but we did not get snow going in and it was totally sunny. The winds in Bellingham were gusting above 50mph. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 I am using February 2006 as a gauge. Very similar set-up it appears right now. The outflow was intense... but we did not get snow going in and it was totally sunny. The winds in Bellingham were gusting above 50mph. PDX had an afternoon high of 32 on 2/17/06. No idea where this low 40s crap is coming from. If the airmass is cold enough lowland locations will stay below freezing through just about the last week of February, even with sunny skies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 For reference... here is the 2006 event: http://s18.postimg.org/68l5pcp21/2_14.gif http://s16.postimg.org/7onuobcut/2_15.gif http://s24.postimg.org/56nxekpjp/2_16.gif http://s27.postimg.org/o3vtlrzeb/2_17.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 PDX had an afternoon high of 32 on 2/17/06. No idea where this low 40s crap is coming from. If the airmass is cold enough lowland locations will stay below freezing through just about the last week of February, even with sunny skies. PDX did way better than SEA then. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 The February 2006 event was pretty quick hitting... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 PDX had an afternoon high of 32 on 2/17/06. No idea where this low 40s crap is coming from. If the airmass is cold enough lowland locations will stay below freezing through just about the last week of February, even with sunny skies. Snoqualmie Falls site with the 2006 event: 2/14 - 452/15 - 402/16 - 412/17 - 352/18 - 432/19 - 452/20 - 42 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 OK. How is the comparison silly? Without a prominent cold seasonal lag... February skews warmer than you would expect. We need precip and clouds next week! February doesn't skew anything. If people are expecting the kind of cold that could occur a month prior, that's their problem. We're clearly marching toward spring, but the comparisons you're making are dumb. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 I think it's time for Tim to go back on mod preview. Oh stop. You're wearing thin. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 PDX had an afternoon high of 32 on 2/17/06. No idea where this low 40s crap is coming from. If the airmass is cold enough lowland locations will stay below freezing through just about the last week of February, even with sunny skies. I don't think it will be like 2006 anyway. The upper level support was VERY short lived with that event. This will be a lot longer. Some typical downplaying going on. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 I believe Salem set 2 record lows with back to back lows of 18 with the 2006 event. I'd like to see them set a record low in January at least once in my lifetime. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 February doesn't skew anything. If people are expecting the kind of cold that could occur a month prior, that's their problem. We're clearly marching toward spring, but the comparisons you're making are dumb. There are examples of pretty extreme cold in Feb. Feb 1936 was colder than any December of the 20th century. Just for an example. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 February doesn't skew anything. If people are expecting the kind of cold that could occur a month prior, that's their problem. We're clearly marching toward spring, but the comparisons you're making are dumb. Don't think their dumb... but fair enough. You get it. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 There are examples of pretty extreme cold in Feb. Feb 1936 was colder than any December of the 20th century. Just for an example. With snow I assume. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 I don't think it will be like 2006 anyway. The upper level support was VERY short lived with that event. This will be a lot longer. Some typical downplaying going on. Great point. That was a very short lived event. The upper level dynamics were gone as soon quickly as they came. As for this event, it may be longer, it may not be, it may not happen. To soon to say. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 In which case you will STILL likely fail Oh yeah? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 I believe Salem set 2 record lows with back to back lows of 18 with the 2006 event. I'd like to see them set a record low in January at least once in my lifetime. It has to happen at some point. If we actually get hit next week we will be getting hit in a time frame that has also struggled mightily in recent years. There is nothing we are more due for than a very cold Jan. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 Great point. That was a very short lived event. The upper level dynamics were gone as soon quickly as they came. As for this event, it may be longer, it may not be, it may not happen. To soon to say. I wish the ECMWF precip maps went out to 240 hours... seems like more potential for precip on that run than just a straight shot from the north like the GFS has been showing. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 Don't think their dumb... but fair enough. You get it. They're. And they were. You are just trying to get a rise out of people. Bainbridgekid did a great job of combating your BS earlier, luckily. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 With snow I assume. I think there's a good chance we will see snow with the event coming up. Pretty hard to imagine two blasts in the same winter not having at least some snow. It APPEARS SNOW WILL BE MORE LIKELY ONCE THE COLD IS ALREADY IN PLACE AS OPPOSED TO GOING INTO THE EVENT. Sorry about the caps. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 I really don't understand the wringing of hands over details right now. The models are just now barely even beginning to agree upon an event happening at all. We've got a long ways to go until we can start nailing down duration of cold and precip amounts. This thing could go lots of ways, assuming it's even going to be a thing. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 Its starting to rain here, !! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 Snoqualmie Falls site with the 2006 event: 2/14 - 452/15 - 402/16 - 412/17 - 352/18 - 432/19 - 452/20 - 42850mb temps over Seattle were only below -10 for about 36 hours with that event. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2006/us0215j5.php Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 I really don't understand the wringing of hands over details right now. The models are just now barely even beginning to agree upon an event happening at all. We've got a long ways to go until we can start nailing down duration of cold and precip amounts. This thing could go lots of ways, assuming it's even going to be a thing. It's pretty clear it will at least get cold. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 It's like a 6th grade classroom in here sometimes. Gentleman, if you have an issue with one another, sort it out in PM. If it's not weather related, or if it's a nasty remark toward someone's spelling or personal beliefs, this isn't the place. theweatherforums.com Let's keep it about weather, people. Please. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 And then you have February of 1989... with a huge dump of snow going into the cold which was in the same general time frame in early February. A high of 15 and a low of 8... with 10 inches of snow on the ground at Snoqualmie Falls on 2/2/89. Now that is what I am talking about. That is memorable!! Don't give me this 38/20 with sunshine and a bare ground stuff. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 It's like a 6th grade classroom in here sometimes. Gentleman, if you have an issue with one another, sort it out in PM. If it's not weather related, or if it's a nasty remark toward someone's spelling or personal beliefs, this isn't the place. theweatherforums.com Let's keep it about weather, people. Please. iFred's not on right now. You can peel your lips from his behind. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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