snow_wizard Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 +1 Timmy likes to disagree just to disagree. Reminds me of my ex-girlfriends, yes, all of them. Yeah...it's pretty obvious that any precip Sunday night will be snow. Even the NWS agrees with that. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 18z GFS ensembles are great. The OP was an outlier and way too warm. 00z GFS, GEM and ECMWF will be fantastic tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Jim... this is going to be a slow process now. Clearing will really come on Monday afternoon and evening and THEN it will cool down. We always jump the gun on this stuff. It never gets truly cold until the true clearing commences. 850s will be plenty low by the end of the weekend for snow. That isn't really rushing it as the overall cold pattern will have been in place for a good while by then. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Yeah...it's pretty obvious that any precip Sunday night will be snow. Even the NWS agrees with that. I do to some extent. We thought that in December with the front coming south (during the Seahawks - Saints game) and it still ended up being mostly just light rain. We all guaranteed it would be snow by the point. But it just does not work that way. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman Josh Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Tuesday for offshore flow. Read carefully now. I know what I am saying. The flow will be onshore down here with any c-zone. That is how c-zones usually work. And early Monday is the best shot. Not Sunday. We have football to focus on anyways. Onshore flow is the only way the PSCZ works, don't think I don't know that. I've been studying the weather around here much longer than 10 years...dude. Takes a big man to admit when he is wrong, and, yes I was wrong about the offshore gradients, just checked them. I still think there will be enough mixing down to the lower levels to give most of us a little clearing, the forecast even supports that. Quote God, I'd give anything for a drink. I'd give my god-damned soul for just a glass of beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman Josh Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 I to some extent. We thought that in December with the front coming south (during the Seahawks - Saints game) and it still ended up being mostly just light rain. We all guaranteed it would be snow by the point. But it just does not work that way. This cold air looks to spread much more quickly than the December event, quicker onset so to speak. Not nearly as gradual. Quote God, I'd give anything for a drink. I'd give my god-damned soul for just a glass of beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 00z NAM HR 9 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/00/nam_npac_009_500_vort_ht.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Onshore flow is the only way the PSCZ works, don't think I don't know that. I've been studying the weather around here much longer than 10 years...dude. Takes a big man to admit when he is wrong, and, yes I was wrong about the offshore gradients, just checked them. I still think there will be enough mixing down to the lower levels to give most of us a little clearing, the forecast even supports that. Closer to the water and for the north interior for sure. Seattle is going to struggle. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 00z NAM HR 9 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/00/nam_npac_009_500_vort_ht.gif Are we tracking the NAM now. That is a good sign. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman Josh Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Closer to the water and for the north interior for sure. Seattle is going to struggle. Seattle is right on the water. Quote God, I'd give anything for a drink. I'd give my god-damned soul for just a glass of beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 This cold air looks to spread much more quickly than the December event, quicker onset so to speak. Not nearly as gradual. It was supposed to be coming tonight. I posted maps earlier showing a frigid Saturday morning. So reality seems to be slower than what the models show at 60 hours out. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Are we tracking the NAM now. That is a good sign.Oh, I dunno I was more so joking around... we could, the pattern progression is already underway, so the NAM might be somewhat useful. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman Josh Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 I think Rob is noting the development of the next wave moving rapidly down the queen charlottes. Quote God, I'd give anything for a drink. I'd give my god-damned soul for just a glass of beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Seattle is right on the water. King County is the exception. Cloud convergence most of the weekend. Best chance for breaks in King County will be Seattle though. From Everett north along the water should be decent. And on the coast. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman Josh Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 King County is the exception. Cloud convergence most of the weekend. Best chance for breaks in King County will be Seattle though. From Everett north along the water should be decent. And on the coast. When the sun peaks out tomorrow for you I want a pic. Quote God, I'd give anything for a drink. I'd give my god-damned soul for just a glass of beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 I think Rob is noting the development of the next wave moving rapidly down the queen charlottes.There are a few disturbances to the north at HR 21 to keep an eye on. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/00/nam_npac_021_500_vort_ht.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 I think Rob is noting the development of the next wave moving rapidly down the queen charlottes. I get sort of excited when Rob starts tracking satellite loops and the NAM. Means we are getting close to something good! I am like Pavlov's dog with Rob's posts... I start drooling in anticipation. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 When the sun peaks out tomorrow for you I want a pic. Maybe for you. Guarantee it won't happen out here amongst all these hills. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman Josh Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 At the least looks like Northern California and maybe points south will get some precip. Sierras will start getting some snow as well. I know it is bad here but they are in dire need. 1 Quote God, I'd give anything for a drink. I'd give my god-damned soul for just a glass of beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 The Canadian looks very hopeful for snow Sunday night. Also some ensembles on the Canadian are going for a longer cold snap now. Extending this thing will be crucial for getting big snow. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 850s will be plenty low by the end of the weekend for snow. That isn't really rushing it as the overall cold pattern will have been in place for a good while by then. 850mb temp is barely getting down to -6C on Sunday evening. That is not 'plenty low' for lowland snow. Down to -8C on Monday morning... that is cold enough. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman Josh Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 The Canadian looks very hopeful for snow Sunday night. Also some ensembles on the Canadian are going for a longer cold snap now. Extending this thing will be crucial for getting big snow. Ya, the Canadian looks filthy. Hey, that's where it is coming from, maybe they are the winners with this one? Quote God, I'd give anything for a drink. I'd give my god-damned soul for just a glass of beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman Josh Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 850mb temp is barely getting down to -6C on Sunday evening. That is not 'plenty low' for lowland snow. Down to -8C on Monday morning... that is cold enough. Ya, but 500mb temps in the -30to -35 range will support snow around -4 850's with heavy precip. Quote God, I'd give anything for a drink. I'd give my god-damned soul for just a glass of beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 I get sort of excited when Rob starts tracking satellite loops and the NAM. Means we are getting close to something good! I am like Pavlov's dog with Rob's posts... I start drooling in anticipation. IR Loops 4 life. I'm drooling as we speak.... but I am not pulling any 24 hours shifts anymore. Nope. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 IR Loops 4 life. I'm drooling as we speak.... but I am not pulling any 24 hours shifts anymore. Nope. Good. That ain't healthy! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Good. That s**t ain't healthy!Lol probably not... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman Josh Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 This is what we need: http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-bojFWBHGl9U/T0Fd8U6PBPI/AAAAAAAAGTs/OpBgb3ftAmA/s1600/500vor.66.0000.gif Quote God, I'd give anything for a drink. I'd give my god-damned soul for just a glass of beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 850mb temp is barely getting down to -6C on Sunday evening. That is not 'plenty low' for lowland snow. Down to -8C on Monday morning... that is cold enough. With northerly gradients it will be cold enough. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 The clouds are actually breaking up here. Pretty shocking considering how it looked earlier. Predicting cloud cover in a case like this is very tricky. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman Josh Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 The clouds are actually breaking up here. Pretty shocking considering how it looked earlier. Predicting cloud cover in a case like this is very tricky. Quote God, I'd give anything for a drink. I'd give my god-damned soul for just a glass of beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Lol just totally crashed face down mashed into keyboard..... be back for 00z GFS, GEM, EURO. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 The clouds are actually breaking up here. Pretty shocking considering how it looked earlier. Predicting cloud cover in a case like this is very tricky. Jim... check out the 12Z WRF. Its probably coming back as some type of warm front later tonight and tomorrow. All the models showed some brief clearing this evening. It likely will not last for us. There is very little tricky about this view of tomorrow morning: http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/intcld.27.0000.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Lol just totally crashed face down mashed into keyboard..... be back for 00z GFS, GEM, EURO. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 I am more tickled by this blast than the one in December. Feeling good about it. This one overall is a strange progression, and has to have some surprises. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 850mb temp is barely getting down to -6C on Sunday evening. That is not 'plenty low' for lowland snow. Down to -8C on Monday morning... that is cold enough. -6c or lower with offshore flow (which is key) is great for snow, so long as there is some legitimate precip to work with. If anyone sees any steady stuff on Sunday evening, expect accumulating snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman Josh Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH THE NEXT NRN STREAM TROUGH TO AFFECT WRN WA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST VIGOROUS OF THE SOLUTIONS MIRRORED CLOSELY BY THE CANADIAN. THESE MODELS BRING IN A SHOT OF COLDER AIR ALOFT SUNDAY EVENING AND DEVELOP A WEAK CLOSED SURFACE LOW NEAR THE CENTRAL/N WA COAST. THIS PATTERN IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY WHERE CONVERGENCE MAY DEVELOP ALONG A LOW PRESSURE AXIS. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO 500 FT OR LESS WHICH MEANS THERE IS SOME THREAT OF SPOTTY LIGHT LOWLAND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. THE NAM/GFS SHOW THIS AS WELL... Quote God, I'd give anything for a drink. I'd give my god-damned soul for just a glass of beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH THE NEXT NRN STREAM TROUGH TO AFFECT WRN WA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST VIGOROUS OF THE SOLUTIONS MIRRORED CLOSELY BY THE CANADIAN. THESE MODELS BRING IN A SHOT OF COLDER AIR ALOFT SUNDAY EVENING AND DEVELOP A WEAK CLOSED SURFACE LOW NEAR THE CENTRAL/N WA COAST. THIS PATTERN IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY WHERE CONVERGENCE MAY DEVELOP ALONG A LOW PRESSURE AXIS. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO 500 FT OR LESS WHICH MEANS THERE IS SOME THREAT OF SPOTTY LIGHT LOWLAND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. THE NAM/GFS SHOW THIS AS WELL... I noticed that on the ECMWF this morning. Its pretty wet on Monday morning over the Seattle area. I have a strong feeling that the GFS and NAM are missing the boat as usual with precip early Monday. That is the best shot by far going into the cold air. Unfortunately... the highs on Monday will still be near 40 degrees in the Seattle area. Don't like saying it but its true... most of what does fall on Monday morning will likely melt. MOS guidance has 42 at SEA that day even with -8C or -9C. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman Josh Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 I noticed that on the ECMWF this morning. Its pretty wet on Monday morning over the Seattle area. I have a strong feeling that the GFS and NAM are missing the boat as usual with precip early Monday. That is the best shot by far going into the cold air. Unfortunately... the highs on Monday will still be near 40 degrees in the Seattle area. Unfortunately... most of what does fall on Monday morning will likely melt. Ya, but late sunday into Monday could be fun if a decent PSCZ sets up, all I'm saying. Could be a few bursts of snow here and there, hail, maybe a little rumble. Much better than what we have seen for sure. We all know that later in the week is the main event. Going to be fun to watch everything unfold. Go Hawks!! Quote God, I'd give anything for a drink. I'd give my god-damned soul for just a glass of beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Ya, but late sunday into Monday could be fun if a decent PSCZ sets up, all I'm saying. Could be a few bursts of snow here and there, hail, maybe a little rumble. Much better than what we have seen for sure. We all know that later in the week is the main event. Going to be fun to watch everything unfold. Go Hawks!! I agree... with the ECMWF set-up it could be pretty active on Monday morning. And the ECMWF is so far superior in this situation is not even a contest. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman Josh Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 I agree... with the ECMWF set-up it could be pretty active on Monday morning. And the ECMWF is so far superior in this situation is not even a contest. We agreed? Sweet, finally . Kidding aside, I trust the European within 72 hours without fail. GFS has been on crack for a couple years now, maybe longer. Quote God, I'd give anything for a drink. I'd give my god-damned soul for just a glass of beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.