Tony Posted February 11, 2016 Report Share Posted February 11, 2016 How is it looking for the trailing clipper? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 11, 2016 Report Share Posted February 11, 2016 GFS is very much on its own Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 11, 2016 Report Share Posted February 11, 2016 Gfs has led the way most of the winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 11, 2016 Report Share Posted February 11, 2016 Yup go with GFS all the way Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 11, 2016 Report Share Posted February 11, 2016 Just my thoughts but If the GFS continues to show this into tomorrow then you really cannot discount it as far as the northern wave/clipper system. I am not sure what to expect on the southern stream as it does not make any sense on what the models have been showing albeit the models have trended somewhat NW. There are a lot of pieces to this puzzle that need to be ironed out but what I think will happen is the southern low will continue to track farther NW(how far who knows) especially if it continues to strenghten. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 11, 2016 Report Share Posted February 11, 2016 Just my thoughts but If the GFS continues to show this into tomorrow then you really cannot discount it as far as the northern wave/clipper system. I am not sure what to expect on the southern stream as it does not make any sense on what the models have been showing albeit the models have trended somewhat NW. There are a lot of pieces to this puzzle that need to be ironed out but what I think will happen is the southern low will continue to track farther NW(how far who knows) especially if it continues to strenghten.If the first piece is GFS strong it isnt going to track further NW than say what the EURO shows Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 11, 2016 Report Share Posted February 11, 2016 If the first piece is GFS strong it isnt going to track further NW than say what the EURO showsMaybe give it a better phase potential....just throwing thoughts out here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 11, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 11, 2016 How is it looking for the trailing clipper?Disappeared...lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 11, 2016 Report Share Posted February 11, 2016 Disappeared...lolGotta luv the Euro for consistency Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 11, 2016 Report Share Posted February 11, 2016 nam is a turd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yerf Posted February 11, 2016 Report Share Posted February 11, 2016 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted February 11, 2016 Report Share Posted February 11, 2016 LOT's AFD update THE GROWTHZONE IS FAIRLY DEEP COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS HELPING TOREPLENISH MOISTURE AND THE COLD AIR IS STILL IN PLACE THROUGH MUCHOF THE EVENT...THUS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY FLUFF UP AT LEAST A FEWINCHES AND PERHAPS ACROSS NORTHWEST IL...SEVERAL INCHES. THENAM/GEM ARE LOWER WITH THEIR QPF AMOUNTS BUT USING A BLEND OF THEGFS/ECMWF YIELDS A STORMTOTAL QPF OF ROUGHLY 0.2 INCHES AND WITHAN AVERAGE SNOW RATIO OF 18:1 OR SO...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS 2 TO 4INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. BUT ITS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT THIS ISSTILL 60+ HOURS AWAY AND THESE AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY CHANGE.SOUTHERLY WINDS ALSO APPEAR TO BECOME QUITE GUSTY SO ITS POSSIBLETHERE COULD BE SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 11, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 11, 2016 GFS has some agreement with NOAA's higher rez experimental FIM model...of note, 850's are -8C and colder when precip falls. Snow ratios should fluff up 15:1 or more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 11, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 11, 2016 12z Euro Para...it shows the juice in the high plains, but then weakens considerably. The secondary wave amps up and tracks up through the OV. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 11, 2016 Report Share Posted February 11, 2016 Mkx siding with the Nam in their Afd. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 11, 2016 Report Share Posted February 11, 2016 Gfs is north Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 11, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 11, 2016 18z GFS...came in way north...I'd say that is fluky lookin'..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 11, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 11, 2016 More 18z GEFS members showing real strong OV/Lower Lakes runners with the second wave...something to watch for... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 11, 2016 Report Share Posted February 11, 2016 This system won't be sampled until tomorrow sometime, so things could change again. There's another Clipper hot on its heals for Monday-Tuesday and that looks almost as strong. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 11, 2016 Report Share Posted February 11, 2016 The GFS did this before the Ground hog's day system to. It changed it's track for a couple of runs and then came right back once the balloon data was received. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 11, 2016 Report Share Posted February 11, 2016 Here's the FIM 8. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowa2015 Posted February 11, 2016 Report Share Posted February 11, 2016 Poof went the valentine day storm well north into Minnesota now. Throwing in the towel. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 12, 2016 Report Share Posted February 12, 2016 Poof went the valentine day storm well north into Minnesota now. Throwing in the towel.lol Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 12, 2016 Report Share Posted February 12, 2016 Poof went the valentine day storm well north into Minnesota now. Throwing in the towel. Still about a 1/3rd of the ensemble members are really good for you. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 12, 2016 Report Share Posted February 12, 2016 here was the 12z Parallel GFS. http://grib2.com/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P25_SFC_ACCUM-PRECIP_108HR.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 12, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 12, 2016 00z NAM baby stepping in the right direction.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 12, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 12, 2016 I like the look of those heavier totals in the Dakota's...would bode well down the road if this wave can hold itself together for a longer duration. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 12, 2016 Report Share Posted February 12, 2016 I was going to say, the NAM is looking better. Low is farther north. Looks like as the low passes, the winds go East, which may kick in some additional lake snow showers. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 12, 2016 Report Share Posted February 12, 2016 NAM http://i.imgur.com/Uq8EJmA.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 12, 2016 Report Share Posted February 12, 2016 I sure hope that last GFS run was a fluke. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 12, 2016 Report Share Posted February 12, 2016 This run of the GFS a little better than the 18z run, but it looks like the big shift north it took is here to stay. Good hit for most of Minnesota and Wisconsin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 12, 2016 Report Share Posted February 12, 2016 GFS with another strong clipper next Tuesday. Hits Minnesota hard again this run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 12, 2016 Report Share Posted February 12, 2016 Would be nice to get just one bigger system, but I'll take it however is comes. Both waves. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 12, 2016 Report Share Posted February 12, 2016 Canadian http://i.imgur.com/t56R2aP.gif 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 12, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 12, 2016 Looks like the Canadian looking better...that run above was only out to HR 78...wonder if that band holds going east or not... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 12, 2016 Report Share Posted February 12, 2016 Looks like the Canadian looking better...that run above was only out to HR 78...wonder if that band holds going east or not... 6" almost into the Chicago area. Model has the second system too, just slightly later. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 12, 2016 Report Share Posted February 12, 2016 Second wave gets you to 7" Tom. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 12, 2016 Report Share Posted February 12, 2016 Ukie-- got to subtract about 1mm for the snow event tonight over C.IA Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 12, 2016 Report Share Posted February 12, 2016 PW mapMuch better than a day or two ago. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 12, 2016 Report Share Posted February 12, 2016 There are TWO clippers now? Nice Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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