February 24th-25th Great Lakes Snowstorm

[Geos]

I believe the 18z Nam had the ULL way NW of the low

 

That's good. It will help draw in the colder air down from aloft and from the North.

 

Kuchera vs. the 10:1.

 

 

[Tony]

850 in a perfect spot or at least you would think so.

[jaster220]

ParaEuro sure is lovin' on NWIN. Hope that transpires and propagates NE towards me. Right now, I'm in a bit of a lull zone where neither lake is adding anything. At least that's what it looks like to me.

[Geos]

Need the 850 mb low to back up just a little more. If this thing can phase up to 700mb then the snow band will extend far into N IL/ SE WI.

We need the trough at 500mb to start to dig under the low a bit more. Once that happens the low will come further west and probably slow down.

You can see the ULL over South Bend on this map.

 

 

Next map shows it doing just that. Earlier the better though. 

 

[Geos]

ABC News was showing the heaviest snow right through Chicago and Grand Rapids.

[gosaints]

ABC News was showing the heaviest snow right through Chicago and Grand Rapids.

Sounds like a great call

[Geos]

Sounds like a great call

 

Haha~

 

The funniest part was that they actually said the East Coast was getting impacted at first. They were playing it up like it was going to be repeat of that blizzard. Widespread 20" amounts just don't happen in the Great Lakes.

 

LOT's latest graphic.

 

[Tom]

ABC News was showing the heaviest snow right through Chicago and Grand Rapids.

It's probably the RPM model...they just showed in on ABC nightly news...

[Niko]

I wonder if a Blizzard Watch will be put out. Winds will be really strong.

[Tony]

Will be some interesting 0z runs tonight

[jaster220]

Is this a winter storm, or a hurricane??

 

(borrowed) 22z RAP.....look at this thing!!! This is 850mb winds. It's a beast & just getting started.
 

http://forums.accuweather.com/style_images/1/img-resized.png Reduced: 75% of original size [ 847 x 701 ] - Click to view full image

http://i.imgur.com/YTibqNm.png

[jaster220]

I wonder if a Blizzard Watch will be put out. Winds will be really strong.

 

I've dreampt of scoring one (toughest winter headline to score) since they started being used. I actually had the idea about 10 yrs before the Denver WFO made it a common place item. LOT has zero problem issuing them. Michigan offices are another story. Cant remember seeing one anywhere in the state. GHD1 they upgraded from WSWarnings or went straight to the BlizWarn, cant remember tbh. You're gonna get rocked over there btw on the backside. Winds howling like Chicago normally sees and Detroit almost never sees outside of the '78 bliz. Get ready Nikos! fun couple days looming for us (all really). Good Luck!

[Tony]

Well 0z Nam has a shutout for ORD..the fat lady is tuning up for the kill.

[Geos]

I was looking at the surface maps vs. the snowfall map and it makes no sense.

 

 

There should be a little snow in NE IL.

 

 

4km NAM does the same thing, showing snow many hours. Nothing on the ground. Wondering if it's seeing the warm ground...

 

[Tom]

Jaster/WestJim should do good with this storm. Indianajohn will prob be on the NW edge of the defo band. It'll be interesting watching the radar and high rez models by tomorrow night.

 

Edit: Niko and Marcus are in the game also. Prob the biggest snowfall of the season.

[Geos]

SREF came back west

 

 

 

 

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

[gosaints]

I was looking at the surface maps vs. the snowfall map and it makes no sense.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016022300/namconus_ref_frzn_ncus_19.png

 

There should be a little snow in NE IL.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016022300/namconus_asnow_ncus_20.png

 

4km NAM does the same thing, showing snow many hours. Nothing on the ground. Wondering if it's seeing the warm ground...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016022300/nam4km_asnow_ncus_21.png

Tidbits maps do it all the time. They show reflectivity all the time with storms that dont produce a flake

[Geos]

Don't what the point of showing snow aloft that never reaches the ground on the maps. Crazy NAM.

 

End of the WRF-NMM is really amped up.

 

[Tom]

Don't what the point of showing snow aloft that never reaches the ground on the maps. Crazy NAM.

 

End of the WRF-NMM is really amped up.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-nmm/2016022212/wrf-nmm_ref_frzn_eus_48.png

Those are some heavy rates of precip!  The radar should look phenomenal on Wednesday.

 

Meantime, 00z GFS came in a tad NW and now showing 1-3" for extreme NE IL and SE sections advisory type snows.  NW IN/SW MI posters sitting pretty.  

[Geos]

Yeah I can see the GFS is coming closer to Louisville on this run.

[Tom]

@ Jaster/West Jim, when this storm scoots on by, 40-50 mph winds lock in out of the WNW and the GFS picking up on Lehs snowfall.  I see a lolipop blip of 12" right by you Jaster!  Haha....

 

Edit: IndianaJohn also gets hit hard

[gosaints]

Gfs surface temps once again indicate you better be under the good stuff

[Geos]

Gfs surface temps once again indicate you better be under the good stuff

 

Yeah especially east of the lake. 34-35°. Yikes. I've never gotten good accumulation above 34.0°. 33.0° makes a world of difference.

 

[indianajohn]

Wow this is getting interesting.... I am worried that northern lake county Indiana misses the heavy snow. Looks like it's gonna be close!!!

[jaster220]

@ Jaster/West Jim, when this storm scoots on by, 40-50 mph winds lock in out of the WNW and the GFS picking up on Lehs snowfall.  I see a lolipop blip of 12" right by you Jaster!  Haha....

 

Edit: IndianaJohn also gets hit hard

 

Thx buddy! That yellow is not quite far enough inland for mby in Marshall. Remember I'm 3rd county in - some 80 mile from the lake. If the winds truly are WNW though, their strength and the low baro will carry it all the way here. Had a solid 9" on the back side of Dec '09 WI bliz for that very reason. 0z GFS is what I'm cheering for right now. Falling in line with Euro Para and quite the major event for this area!

[jaster220]

Gfs surface temps once again indicate you better be under the good stuff

 

Good points on milder snowstorms from Hoosier at AmWx. Could this be Detroit Thursday morning?

 

"Thinking of blizzards that had wet snow and not drier snow that is more common, one that comes to mind is March 9, 1998...also a super Nino winter.  Temps did drop with time but there's a good stretch there of temps in the 30s with blizzard conditions."

 

obs from Gary:

 

[Geos]

Low track practically crosses over Toledo on this run. 

 

GGEM

 

Low west of Louisville at 39 hours...

 

[Geos]

 

 

[midwest buildit]

well with any luck, this might get me past 20" for the season. lol

 

didnt the last couple of larger storms in the area end up with the snow expanding further northwest of the low. and the last couple of storms ended up tracking more north didnt they?

[Geos]

well with any luck, this might get me past 20" for the season. lol

 

didnt the last couple of larger storms in the area end up with the snow expanding further northwest of the low. and the last couple of storms ended up tracking more north didnt they?

 

Yeah largely.

This setup reminds me of the 1/9 system. For day and days the heaviest snow was supposed to fall in the exact area that we are looking at now and then it ended up snowing more here than NW IN and a secondary deformation band went up farther east. Seeing those warm surface temperatures is a red flag.

[Geos]

UK MET stays on course. Low is north of Louisville.

 

 

[Geos]

Chicago and western MI, NW IN get pounded on the UK MET. 

 

 

 

 

[Geos]

Total moisture.

Downtown Chicago at 2.5cm, which is about an inch of moisture. 

 

[Geos]

WRF NMM

 

 

[tbone8]

For the record, I hope I don't get any snow...

[Geos]

I'll take it Tbone.

 

EURO on a similar track to last nights 0z run.

 

[jlp]

Has this been sampled? It seems the models are still all over the place.

[Geos]

Has this been sampled? It seems the models are still all over the place.

 

It was over Western Mexico this afternoon, so yeah it should have been. Don't know how good their data collecting is.

[jlp]

It was over Western Mexico this afternoon, so yeah it should have been. Don't know how good their data collecting is.

Just odd to see this much fluctuation in models this close. Just fits this winter I guess.

[Geos]

Just odd to see this much fluctuation in models this close. Just fits this winter I guess.

 

GFS was the steadiest with the 2/2 storm for days. So I have to give that model the credit. GGEM hasn't done very good since the November storm. I would toss that for being too warm and too far east with the snow.