NWbyNW Posted October 15, 2022 Report Share Posted October 15, 2022 NIGHT SHIFT!!! And air quality actually continues to improve still for Western Washington. Offshore shift happening around 2am. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 15, 2022 Report Share Posted October 15, 2022 23 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: 1991 vibes coming in hard. Gonna be a long winter, folks... Nino vs Nina. Arctic outbreaks in Nino Octobers have a rich history of delivering horrible winters. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 15, 2022 Report Share Posted October 15, 2022 1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Seems legit... OFA also predicts a PNW arctic blast in Nov. Followed by a blowtorch winter. 1 1 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sonny Summers Posted October 15, 2022 Report Share Posted October 15, 2022 9 minutes ago, Doiinko said: That was a Nino though, maybe we'll get luckier Yes, it was a nino. I remember 2000-01 having a ridge parked in and around the NW after January 1st. Couldn't get rid of that sucker. That year was a 3rd year niña. Anything can happen. It's still early. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sonny Summers Posted October 15, 2022 Report Share Posted October 15, 2022 7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Just a bit of a crash on the 0z GFS. Gorgeous pattern! Definitely looks like fall 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 15, 2022 Report Share Posted October 15, 2022 I hate it when I have to be up at 5:30 AM, and can't sleep, AND on top of that awaiting the EURO to finish.... Seriously.... 6z GFS in 3 hours 14 minutes 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 15, 2022 Report Share Posted October 15, 2022 00z ECMWF Day 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 15, 2022 Report Share Posted October 15, 2022 35 minutes ago, Sonny Summers said: Yes, it was a nino. I remember 2000-01 having a ridge parked in and around the NW after January 1st. Couldn't get rid of that sucker. That year was a 3rd year niña. Anything can happen. It's still early. That Nina was a real oddball. All of the cool anoms showed up in the spring and summer. Those summers were really the last cool ones we had. Not a real good analog. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 15, 2022 Report Share Posted October 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: 00z ECMWF Day 5 Looks poised to rock. 4 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 15, 2022 Report Share Posted October 15, 2022 It certainly appears the first trough is going to be more cold than wet. It looks like it goes wetter from there though. 4 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sonny Summers Posted October 15, 2022 Report Share Posted October 15, 2022 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: That Nina was a real oddball. All of the cool anoms showed up in the spring and summer. Those summers were really the last cool ones we had. Not a real good analog. I think the QBO was negative during that winter. 1975-76 seems to somewhat match this year, but the niña was stronger in 1975-76. There aren't many 3rd year niñas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 15, 2022 Report Share Posted October 15, 2022 Day 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 15, 2022 Report Share Posted October 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, Sonny Summers said: I think the QBO was negative during that winter. 1975-76 seems to somewhat match this year, but the niña was stronger in 1975-76. There aren't many 3rd year niñas. 1956-57 was basically a third year Nina and was +QBO I believe. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 15, 2022 Report Share Posted October 15, 2022 For Saturday afternoon and evening this is rather concerning and worrisome for the Nakia Creek fire over eastern Clark County. Tonight's 00z WRF wind gust model is stronger with 40-45kt gusts now for east Clark County over the fire area. 2 1 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 15, 2022 Report Share Posted October 15, 2022 The GOA block is way stronger on the 0z ECMWF than the 12z. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted October 15, 2022 Report Share Posted October 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: For Saturday afternoon and evening this is rather concerning and worrisome for the Nakia Creek fire over eastern Clark County. Tonight's 00z WRF wind gust model is stronger with 40-45kt gusts now for east Clark County over the fire area. This run also shows 35mph gusts here in the west metro. Though only gusts 5-10mph at the same time at Hillsboro. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 15, 2022 Report Share Posted October 15, 2022 Day 7 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 15, 2022 Report Share Posted October 15, 2022 Late October 1971 is the number one analog on tonight's GFS. 5 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted October 15, 2022 Report Share Posted October 15, 2022 4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: For Saturday afternoon and evening this is rather concerning and worrisome for the Nakia Creek fire over eastern Clark County. Tonight's 00z WRF wind gust model is stronger with 40-45kt gusts now for east Clark County over the fire area. Taken at face value most models are advertising gusts 45-55 mph for the fire area-- if any embers land outside the fire perimeter it'll be a bad time. 3 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Gradient Keeper Posted October 15, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted October 15, 2022 Day 8 niceeeeeeeeeee 11 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 15, 2022 Report Share Posted October 15, 2022 Just now, Requiem said: Taken at face value most models are advertising gusts 45-55 mph for the fire area-- if any embers land outside the fire perimeter it'll be a bad time. I have a real bad feeling about this. I certainly hope the fire lines hold, but trying to contain a fire with those winds is going to be very problematic. Hopefully this doesn't get out of hand again. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 15, 2022 Report Share Posted October 15, 2022 Pretty hard core trough on the ECMWF. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted October 15, 2022 Report Share Posted October 15, 2022 Just now, DJ Droppin said: I have a real bad feeling about this. I certainly hope the fire lines hold, but trying to contain a fire with those winds is going to be very problematic. Hopefully this doesn't get out of hand again. We've been lucky in regard to this fire-- the weather conditions since it started have been remarkably tame for that area. 3 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 15, 2022 Report Share Posted October 15, 2022 We may have a new fire start in the far northern Oregon Coast range roughly. Looks to be south of Westport, Oregon/Highway 30. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 15, 2022 Report Share Posted October 15, 2022 Day 9'er BEAUTIFUL first trough of the Fall season! 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 15, 2022 Report Share Posted October 15, 2022 4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 9'er BEAUTIFUL first trough of the Fall season! That's about the most extreme flip you could hope for. 4 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted October 15, 2022 Report Share Posted October 15, 2022 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Doinko Posted October 15, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted October 15, 2022 10 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted October 15, 2022 Report Share Posted October 15, 2022 4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: That's about the most extreme flip you could hope for. Hot dry and windy to snowflakes on some of those fires. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 15, 2022 Report Share Posted October 15, 2022 Unfortunately the thermal signature on what is a new fire is now becoming stronger. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 15, 2022 Report Share Posted October 15, 2022 6 minutes ago, Doiinko said: Hot dry and windy to snowflakes on some of those fires. Yeah the Cascades are going from Summer to Winter in a major way within mere days! Unbelievable. Very wet. A pile of mountain snow. Chilly. Talk about a shock to the senses! We're not going to know what hit if the EURO is correct! Welcome to FALL! C'MON!!!! 12z ECMWF in 10 hours 36 minutes 5 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted October 15, 2022 Report Share Posted October 15, 2022 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: Yeah the Cascades are going from Fall to Winter in a major way within mere days! Unbelievable. Very wet. A pile of mountain snow. Chilly. Talk about a shock to the senses! We're not going to know what hit if the EURO is correct! Welcome to FALL! C'MON!!!! 12z ECMWF in 10 hours 36 minutes 30" of snow on the Cedar Creek Fire just a week after hot days in the 70s, 80s and fire growth according to this run! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 15, 2022 Report Share Posted October 15, 2022 Fire expanding, growing hotter. Good lord..... 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWbyNW Posted October 15, 2022 Report Share Posted October 15, 2022 1 hour ago, snow_wizard said: Just a bit of a crash on the 0z GFS. Gorgeous pattern! KSEA just skips days in the 60s, dropping from 70s to 50s. lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWbyNW Posted October 15, 2022 Report Share Posted October 15, 2022 Smoke models for 9AM Oct 15th. This is for ground level accumulations. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWbyNW Posted October 15, 2022 Report Share Posted October 15, 2022 10 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Fire expanding, growing hotter. Good lord..... That looks to be on the border between Columbia or Clatsop Counties. I am searching media outlets for any info on it, but it's probably too late and no one will write about it till the morning. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sonny Summers Posted October 15, 2022 Report Share Posted October 15, 2022 56 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: 1956-57 was basically a third year Nina and was +QBO I believe. It was a 3rd year event. January was gorgeous. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sonny Summers Posted October 15, 2022 Report Share Posted October 15, 2022 38 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 9'er BEAUTIFUL first trough of the Fall season! Dynamic, I like it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted October 15, 2022 Report Share Posted October 15, 2022 2 hours ago, Doiinko said: It isn't totally dry lol Spokane 6" snow island clown asss shiit 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWbyNW Posted October 15, 2022 Report Share Posted October 15, 2022 @DJ Droppin Found it! It apparently started earlier this afternoon (err, yesterday). It is called the Fishhawk Loop Fire. Winds at this particular location are blowing eastward at about 5-6 knots. Humidity is 39% with a temp of 63F. The fire is near a remote lake known as Fishhawk Lake. There are some homes around the lake, but with the direction of the wind being eastward, these homes aren't in danger at the moment. Let's hope it's a tiny tiny flame that will fizzle out. I will keep digging for more info. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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