October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[NWbyNW]

NIGHT SHIFT!!!

And air quality actually continues to improve still for Western Washington.  Offshore shift happening around 2am.

 

[snow_wizard]

23 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

1991 vibes coming in hard.

Gonna be a long winter, folks...

Nino vs Nina.  Arctic outbreaks in Nino Octobers have a rich history of delivering horrible winters.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Seems legit...

OFA also predicts a PNW arctic blast in Nov.  

Followed by a blowtorch winter.  

[Sonny Summers]

9 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

That was a Nino though, maybe we'll get luckier

Yes, it was a nino. I remember 2000-01 having a ridge parked in and around the NW after January 1st. Couldn't get rid of that sucker. That year was a 3rd year niña. Anything can happen. It's still early.

[Sonny Summers]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Just a bit of a crash on the 0z GFS.  Gorgeous pattern!

Definitely looks like fall

[Gradient Keeper]

I hate it when I have to be up at 5:30 AM, and can't sleep, AND on top of that awaiting the EURO to finish.... Seriously....

6z GFS in 3 hours 14 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 5

[snow_wizard]

35 minutes ago, Sonny Summers said:

Yes, it was a nino. I remember 2000-01 having a ridge parked in and around the NW after January 1st. Couldn't get rid of that sucker. That year was a 3rd year niña. Anything can happen. It's still early.

That Nina was a real oddball.  All of the cool anoms showed up in the spring and summer.  Those summers were really the last cool ones we had.  Not a real good analog.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z ECMWF Day 5

Looks poised to rock.

[snow_wizard]

It certainly appears the first trough is going to be more cold than wet.  It looks like it goes wetter from there though.

[Sonny Summers]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

That Nina was a real oddball.  All of the cool anoms showed up in the spring and summer.  Those summers were really the last cool ones we had.  Not a real good analog.

I think the QBO was negative during that winter. 1975-76 seems to somewhat match this year, but the niña was stronger in 1975-76. There aren't many 3rd year niñas. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Sonny Summers said:

I think the QBO was negative during that winter. 1975-76 seems to somewhat match this year, but the niña was stronger in 1975-76. There aren't many 3rd year niñas. 

1956-57 was basically a third year Nina and was +QBO I believe.

[Gradient Keeper]

For Saturday afternoon and evening this is rather concerning and worrisome for the Nakia Creek fire over eastern Clark County. Tonight's 00z WRF wind gust model is stronger with 40-45kt gusts now for east Clark County over the fire area.

[snow_wizard]

The GOA block is way stronger on the 0z ECMWF than the 12z.

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

For Saturday afternoon and evening this is rather concerning and worrisome for the Nakia Creek fire over eastern Clark County. Tonight's 00z WRF wind gust model is stronger with 40-45kt gusts now for east Clark County over the fire area.

This run also shows 35mph gusts here in the west metro. Though only gusts 5-10mph at the same time at Hillsboro.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

[snow_wizard]

Late October 1971 is the number one analog on tonight's GFS.

[Requiem]

4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

For Saturday afternoon and evening this is rather concerning and worrisome for the Nakia Creek fire over eastern Clark County. Tonight's 00z WRF wind gust model is stronger with 40-45kt gusts now for east Clark County over the fire area.

Taken at face value most models are advertising gusts 45-55 mph for the fire area-- if any embers land outside the fire perimeter it'll be a bad time.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8 niceeeeeeeeeee

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Requiem said:

Taken at face value most models are advertising gusts 45-55 mph for the fire area-- if any embers land outside the fire perimeter it'll be a bad time.

I have a real bad feeling about this. I certainly hope the fire lines hold, but trying to contain a fire with those winds is going to be very problematic. Hopefully this doesn't get out of hand again.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty hard core trough on the ECMWF.

[Requiem]

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

I have a real bad feeling about this. I certainly hope the fire lines hold, but trying to contain a fire with those winds is going to be very problematic. Hopefully this doesn't get out of hand again.

We've been lucky in regard to this fire-- the weather conditions since it started have been remarkably tame for that area. 

[Gradient Keeper]

We may have a new fire start in the far northern Oregon Coast range roughly. Looks to be south of Westport, Oregon/Highway 30.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er BEAUTIFUL first trough of the Fall season!

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 9'er BEAUTIFUL first trough of the Fall season!

That's about the most extreme flip you could hope for.

[Doinko]

[Doinko]

 

[Doinko]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That's about the most extreme flip you could hope for.

Hot dry and windy to snowflakes on some of those fires.

[Gradient Keeper]

Unfortunately the thermal signature on what is a new fire is now becoming stronger.

[Gradient Keeper]

6 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Hot dry and windy to snowflakes on some of those fires.

Yeah the Cascades are going from Summer to Winter in a major way within mere days! Unbelievable. Very wet. A pile of mountain snow. Chilly. Talk about a shock to the senses! We're not going to know what hit if the EURO is correct! Welcome to FALL! C'MON!!!!

12z ECMWF in 10 hours 36 minutes

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Yeah the Cascades are going from Fall to Winter in a major way within mere days! Unbelievable. Very wet. A pile of mountain snow. Chilly. Talk about a shock to the senses! We're not going to know what hit if the EURO is correct! Welcome to FALL! C'MON!!!!

12z ECMWF in 10 hours 36 minutes

30" of snow on the Cedar Creek Fire just a week after hot days in the 70s, 80s and fire growth according to this run!

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Fire expanding, growing hotter. Good lord.....

[NWbyNW]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Just a bit of a crash on the 0z GFS.  Gorgeous pattern!

KSEA just skips days in the 60s, dropping from 70s to 50s. lol 

[NWbyNW]

Smoke models for 9AM Oct 15th. This is for ground level accumulations.

 

[NWbyNW]

10 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Fire expanding, growing hotter. Good lord.....

That looks to be on the border between Columbia or Clatsop Counties.  I am searching media outlets for any info on it, but it's probably too late and no one will write about it till the morning.  

[Sonny Summers]

56 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

1956-57 was basically a third year Nina and was +QBO I believe.

It was a 3rd year event. January was gorgeous.

[Sonny Summers]

38 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 9'er BEAUTIFUL first trough of the Fall season!

Dynamic, I like it.

[Phishy Wx]

2 hours ago, Doiinko said:

It isn't totally dry

lol Spokane 6" snow island

clown asss shiit

 

[NWbyNW]

@DJ Droppin Found it!  It apparently started earlier this afternoon (err, yesterday).  It is called the Fishhawk Loop Fire.  Winds at this particular location are blowing eastward at about 5-6 knots. Humidity is 39% with a temp of 63F. 

The fire is near a remote lake known as Fishhawk Lake.  There are some homes around the lake, but with the direction of the wind being eastward, these homes aren't in danger at the moment.  Let's hope it's a tiny tiny flame that will fizzle out.  

I will keep digging for more info.