October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[snow_wizard]

EPS is the same story as the other models tonight.  Way stronger with the trough.

[Sonny Summers]

7 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

lol Spokane 6" snow island

clown asss shiit

 

A little snow enhancement zone

[NWbyNW]

3 minutes ago, Sonny Summers said:

A little snow enhancement zone

Welcome to the weather community by the way!  If you introduced yourself, I apologize I missed it.

I come here mainly to post bad news about smoke and wildfires. Also the occasional photo of weather stuff. 

[NWbyNW]

Now for some good news.  Did someone order rain?  Washington AND Oregon!!!  Have some precipitation totals! Still a ways away, but it's being consistent.  If this comes true, talk about drenching all the fires in the Cascades and along the ranges in Idaho!  This would be a blessing. 

 

 

 

[The Blob]

We don't need anymore smoke, it is driving my allergies crazy and I'm sure many more people as well.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Good trends.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

GFS caving to the EC.

[Jbolin]

3 hours ago, DJ Droppin said:

Fire expanding, growing hotter. Good lord.....

Shiiiiiiiiiit

[The Blob]

Low 60s in Troutdale, feels great.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

46F here. Very comfortable.

[TT-SEA]

What a crazy swing upcoming.   ECMWF led the way.    This reminds me of the crash that happened in early April with a massive trough dropping down from the north.     Also interesting to note this has been happening for months in the GOA with tons of energy repeatedly diving south and keeping a ridge in place over the PNW.    Same pattern is continuing but the position has finally shifted.    No way to know if its related... but there have been some pretty extreme patterns since Tonga erupted (it started happening about 3 months later).  Also makes me think we could be in line for a crazy winter.

In the shorter term it might be pretty nasty today in terms of smoke for the Mariners and Huskies games in Seattle.

[Tyler Mode]

Incredible temp spreads this morning.  72 on Larch, 71 in Heisson, low to mid 40s down in the valleys.

Edited October 15, 2022 by Tyler Mode

[SilverFallsAndrew]

https://www.kxl.com/brush-fire-breaks-out-northwest-of-mist/?utm_campaign=snd-autopilot&fbclid=IwAR0TbAmavOA1zyFQJjmhDigZE5U7elbWakA89JXLphrsZMcHKHWR8fIy4_M

[ShawniganLake]

Weather summary
for British Columbia
issued by Environment Canada
at 9:07 p.m. PDT Friday 14 October 2022.

Discussion.

The following areas will have set a daily maximum temperature record 
on October 14, 2022: 

Bella Bella Area (Bella Bella) 
Preliminary new record of 18.9 
Old record of 17.2 set in 1978 
Records in this area have been kept since 1977 

Cache Creek Area (Ashcroft) 
Preliminary new record of 23.7 
Old record of 23.3 set in 1945 
Records in this area have been kept since 1944 

Comox Area (Comox A) 
Preliminary new record of 21.5 
Old record of 19.8 set in 2004 
Records in this area have been kept since 1914 

Courtenay Area (Comox A) 
Preliminary new record of 21.5 
Old record of 19.8 set in 2004 
Records in this area have been kept since 1914 

Esquimalt Area (Victoria Gonzales CS) 
Preliminary new record of 21.3 
Old record of 21.1 set in 1961 
Records in this area have been kept since 1874 

Gonzales Point Area (Victoria Gonzales CS) 
Preliminary new record of 21.3 
Old record of 21.1 set in 1961 
Records in this area have been kept since 1874 

Hope Area (Hope Airport) 
Preliminary new record of 25.3 
Old record of 23.3 set in 1961 
Records in this area have been kept since 1936 

Mackenzie Area (Mackenzie Airport Auto) 
Preliminary new record of 19.4 
Old record of 16.8 set in 1986 
Records in this area have been kept since 1971 

Malahat Area (Malahat) 
Preliminary new record of 22.3 
Old record of 20.5 set in 1991 
Records in this area have been kept since 1986 

Pemberton Area (Pemberton Airport CS) 
Preliminary new record of 23.8 
Old record of 19.4 set in 1945 
Records in this area have been kept since 1908 

Port Alberni Area (Port Alberni (AUT)) 
Preliminary new record of 25.7 
Old record of 22.2 set in 1907 
Records in this area have been kept since 1900 

Puntzi Mountain Area (Puntzi Mountain (AUT)) 
Preliminary new record of 22.2 
Old record of 19.0 set in 1978 
Records in this area have been kept since 1959 

Sechelt Area (Sechelt Aut) 
Preliminary new record of 19.6 
Old record of 18.5 set in 2004 
Records in this area have been kept since 1956 

Vernon Area (Vernon Auto) 
Preliminary new record of 20.2 
Old record of 19.4 set in 1916 
Records in this area have been kept since 1900 

Victoria Harbour Area (Victoria Gonzales CS) 
Preliminary new record of 21.3 
Old record of 21.1 set in 1961 
Records in this area have been kept since 1874 

Victoria (hartland) Area (Victoria Gonzales CS) 
Preliminary new record of 21.3 
Old record of 21.1 set in 1961 
Records in this area have been kept since 1874 

Victoria (university Of) Area (Victoria Gonzales CS) 
Preliminary new record of 21.3 
Old record of 21.1 set in 1961 
Records in this area have been kept since 1874 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

CFS is back to showing a cold January and a cool February. 

Looking ahead to November, the center of the warmth looks to be focused over the nation's midsection. CFS going wet and mild for our region. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

7 hours ago, NWbyNW said:

Now for some good news.  Did someone order rain?  Washington AND Oregon!!!  Have some precipitation totals! Still a ways away, but it's being consistent.  If this comes true, talk about drenching all the fires in the Cascades and along the ranges in Idaho!  This would be a blessing. 

 

 

 

My pendulum will be swinging until it happens. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

GFS caving to the EC.

As usual, but still a relief to see. Now to see it get within five days.

[Cloud]

7 hours ago, NWbyNW said:

KSEA just skips days in the 60s, dropping from 70s to 50s. lol 

A bit late but there’s the roller coaster drop we’ve been looking for every fall. It’s been quite a climb 

[Cloud]

Timing is also moving along quite nicely. 

[snow_wizard]

Dropped to 42 here this morning.  At least the early mornings feel like October.

[ShawniganLake]

It’s going to be raining a week from now.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, ShawniganLake said:

It’s going to be raining a week from now.  

Heck yes.

[snow_wizard]

The 6z GFS had 3 max temps in the upper 40s for SEA.  Going to be quite a turn around.  It's still a coin flip whether this pattern will end up being more wet, more cold, or both.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

It’s going to be raining a week from now.  

It almost seems hard to believe at this point.

[Tyler Mode]

Blowing dust and smoke this morning  Meanwhile still calm here.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

I can’t get on board with the rain for the end of next week until the ICON is on board. It’s not at this point, but it is for a big cooldown.

 

https://weather.us/model-charts/german/washington/acc-total-precipitation/20221023-0000z.html

 

[MV_snow]

3 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

AQI this morning at the station nearest me is 456.

Glad I'm headed to L.A. where it will be cooler and the air will be breathable

Wow, pretty sad when L.A. is where we need to go to get better air quality!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

7 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

AQI this morning at the station nearest me is 456.

Glad I'm headed to L.A. where it will be cooler and the air will be breathable

The new normal.

[Anti Marine Layer]

37 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

It’s going to be raining a week from now.  

Lots of time for things to change

[Anti Marine Layer]

7 minutes ago, MV_snow said:

Wow, pretty sad when L.A. is where we need to go to get better air quality!

Not much better here. Last time I was able to see the Santa Ana Mountains about 5 miles away from me is I forgot when.

[Winterdog]

It is smokier than ever here this morning.  I'm getting unhealthful air warnings on my phone.  Currently 42 after a low of 40.  Looking so forward to the upcoming pattern change.  Let's hope years later we can look back on this record dry stretch of weather as a single event yet unrivaled. 

[TT-SEA]

I was just at Safeway in North Bend and the temp difference between our house and down there is pretty extreme.   Its 46 there and 68 here... over a span of a couple miles.   Tyler pointed out the same thing happening down in the Portland area too.    It appears that the inversion is around 700 feet because the temp jumped up immediately at that point.    It was sort of chilly down there and feels like an unusually warm summer morning up here.    The smoke has been cleared out here as well.   Its all pushing westward into Seattle.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

Man, the GFS is pretty good, but so close to being great like the Euro. That ridge just needs to be nudged a bit further west. Looking legit cold for parts of Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming. 

[GobBluth]

All hail king Euro. 

[T-Town]

Looks like the neighbors tree is thirsty. The brown wasn’t there a few days ago.  

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

2 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

All hail king Euro. 

The GEM is still crappy, although looks a bit better than last runs.

[Phishy Wx]

45 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

I can’t get on board with the rain for the end of next week until the ICON is on board. It’s not at this point, but it is for a big cooldown.

 

https://weather.us/model-charts/german/washington/acc-total-precipitation/20221023-0000z.html

 

you ride the GEM and ICON, not knocking it, just an observation

[Anti Marine Layer]

17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I was just at Safeway in North Bend and the temp difference between our house and down there is pretty extreme.   Its 46 there and 68 here... over a span of a couple miles.   Tyler pointed out the same thing happening down in the Portland area too.    It appears that the inversion is around 700 feet because the temp jumped up immediately at that point.    It was sort of chilly down there and feels like an unusually warm summer morning up here.    The smoke has been cleared out here as well.   Its all pushing westward into Seattle.

Should make for a nice Mariners game.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

you ride the GEM and ICON, not knocking it, just an observation

I look at the GEM for entertainment purposes and confirmation of what other models show. I would never take its forecast on its own as gospel.
 

The ICON is the king for QPF though in my mind. 

The Euro and GFS are the best for large-scale pattern development and evolution. The GFS usually for long-term development and the Euro for evolution and finer details. 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

GFS day 12…