October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[TT-SEA]

Really feels like early April... complete pattern flip and will probably stick around for a long time again.   Deep troughing in November is usually quite nice.   Flat ridging is the absolute worst.     Too early to say anything about November yet... but I am liking how things are evolving.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

12 hours ago, selkirks said:

Rain is really necessary to stop the endless smoke improve air quality across the state. And some of us like to ski! 

Beyond that, we need it to keep my wife's car clean.  Getting really dusty.

[TT-SEA]

There is a new fire now south of the Bolt Creek fire (south of Hwy 2) and its putting out much more smoke which is heading to the northwest.    Really filling in the North Sound with smoke while its crystal clear here.

Just a few more days of smoke and then it will be a distant memory.

[awright-31]

Oh, how this makes me happy. It's still Hr180, so anything can happen, but I think It's almost time. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Looks like the southerly surge is ahead of schedule.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Nice!

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

I can’t get on board with the rain for the end of next week until the ICON is on board. It’s not at this point, but it is for a big cooldown.

 

https://weather.us/model-charts/german/washington/acc-total-precipitation/20221023-0000z.html

 

As I said in an earlier post...the precip is the main question mark now.  Not sure why some people call me a weenie for that.  Kind of beclowning themselves IMO.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Looks like the southerly surge is ahead of schedule.

What southerly surge?

[Winterdog]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

There is a new fire now south of the Bolt Creek fire (south of Hwy 2) and its putting out much more smoke which is heading to the northwest.    Really filling in the North Sound with smoke while its crystal clear here.

Just a few more days of smoke and then it will be a distant memory.

Yep, the smoke is increasing quickly here.  50 right now.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just a hunch, but something tells me this pattern change (snap back to average) isn’t going to bring us 3-4 consecutive record cold and/or wet months.

[snow_wizard]

46 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Looks like the neighbors tree is thirsty. The brown wasn’t there a few days ago.  

That is probably going to die.  So sad to see that.  As I've told Jesse before there are some very old (hundreds of years) Douglas Fir trees near Liberty that are dying from the recent very dry and hot summers.  It is a rare situation where huge Douglas Fir trees and sagebrush exist in the same place.  I really hate seeing things like that.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Just a hunch, but something tells me this pattern change (snap back to average) isn’t going to bring us 3-4 consecutive record cold and/or wet months.

You're probably correct.  Nobody ever said it would.

BTW the snap back will be below normal for temps.  It's well advertised.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Already in the 80s just after noon in Wagoner County. 

[snow_wizard]

25 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Really feels like early April... complete pattern flip and will probably stick around for a long time again.   Deep troughing in November is usually quite nice.   Flat ridging is the absolute worst.     Too early to say anything about November yet... but I am liking how things are evolving.

I agree...the flat ridging / gloom stuff is awful.  Although one month of it in either Nov or Dec is ok.

[Cascadia_Wx]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You're probably correct.  Nobody ever said it would.

BTW the snap back will be below normal for temps.  It's well advertised.

That wasn’t in response to anything you said. Just making the somewhat obvious point that we likely aren’t going to see a true flip side.

[NWbyNW]

Air quality alerts are up and red flag warnings abound.  The unhealthiest air is in Eugene, Oregon and the Puget Sound, Washington.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, NWbyNW said:

Air quality alerts are up and red flag warnings abound.  The unhealthiest air is in Eugene, Oregon and the Puget Sound, Washington.

 

I'm so used to it at this point I'm almost numb to it. Slowly but surely shortening my lifespan.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I'm so used to it at this point I'm almost numb to it. Slowly but surely shortening my lifespan.

We're close to this ending.  It has gotten beyond old though.

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

That wasn’t in response to anything you said. Just making the somewhat obvious point that we likely aren’t going to see a true flip side.

I do think we will have a month or two that will make up for some of this though.

[Cloud]

12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That is probably going to die.  So sad to see that.  As I've told Jesse before there are some very old (hundreds of years) Douglas Fir trees near Liberty that are dying from the recent very dry and hot summers.  It is a rare situation where huge Douglas Fir trees and sagebrush exist in the same place.  I really hate seeing things like that.

We have many trees like that around here… it’s really sad actually. And it ain’t foliage either because they’ve been like that since Aug/Sept as their brown crunchy leaves fell off. 

[NWbyNW]

So the Fishhawk Loop Fire in Clatsop County we brought up last night doesn't appear to be emitting much to any smoke based on satellite maps.  Here we have two satellite views.  The lower quality one is from moments ago, while the higher quality one is focusing just one he BIG smoke emitters and cleaning up the rest.

Over the course of the winds winds will start to shift NW and it should allow for smoke to blow out of the Puget Sound but also suck in more smoke from burning fires when they belch out their smoke columns.  Same can be said for Oregon today.

 

[Phishy Wx]

13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That is probably going to die.  So sad to see that.  As I've told Jesse before there are some very old (hundreds of years) Douglas Fir trees near Liberty that are dying from the recent very dry and hot summers.  It is a rare situation where huge Douglas Fir trees and sagebrush exist in the same place.  I really hate seeing things like that.

Santa Cruz Mtns in CA is a great place to observe Large Doug Firs bordering Chaparral.  Had on the property we lived on.  Redwoods too backing against Chaparral. 

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Air quality alerts are up and red flag warnings abound.  The unhealthiest air is in Eugene, Oregon and the Puget Sound, Washington.

 

The air looks horrible north of Seattle on the visible sat pic.  I had no idea there were so many new fires.  So far the smoke is staying mostly north of here, but I suspect a north wind will kick in later today.

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Santa Cruz Mtns in CA is a great place to observe Large Doug Firs bordering Chaparral.  Had on the property we lived on.  Redwoods too backing against Chaparral. 

Are they still standing? I just work under the assumption that all of the wildlands in California are a blackened wasteland at this point.

[NWbyNW]

These maps are looking at diff things, one is showing smoke columns and the other is ground level.  Washington is expecting at least two major dumps of smoke today from fires.  They are posted below.  Oregon's ground level smoke around Eugene will be very high. 

 

 

[snow_wizard]

The GFS was pretty darn impressive.

[Sonny Summers]

Got to love the trends this morning. It might start looking and feeling like fall in about a week.

[snow_wizard]

Dramatic improvement on the 12z GEFS vs the 6z.

[Anti Marine Layer]

8 minutes ago, Sonny Summers said:

Got to love the trends this morning. It might start looking and feeling like fall in about a week.

You should have been here this week.

[Anti Marine Layer]

15 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The air looks horrible north of Seattle on the visible sat pic.  I had no idea there were so many new fires.  So far the smoke is staying mostly north of here, but I suspect a north wind will kick in later today.

The PNW and So Cal have played switcheroo this month, but sometimes the Santa Anas don't peek until late October or early November.

[GobBluth]

Bipolar GFS at it's finest. Now deepest and most persistent with troughing long term.

 

 

 

[TacomaWx]

Looks pretty nasty back home. 0 smoke today in kalispel all of it is gone. Coming home tomorrow morning. 

[Sonny Summers]

8 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

Bipolar GFS at it's finest. Now deepest and most persistent with troughing long term.

 

 

 

This has been a bipolar year. The weather is moving into a cooler and wetter regime, but will it be a prolonged pattern change? I guess we'll find out shortly.

[Deweydog]

81 at 11am on 10/15 in Aurora.

[Anti Marine Layer]

They've got a long way to go if they're gonna reach 79.

[awright-31]

46 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Already in the 80s just after noon in Wagoner County. 

I spent some time in Wagoner County earlier this year. I'm from WA so not used to the extreme humidity. Remember when I arrived and my hands started sticking to the steering wheel. I'll take the dry heat, thanks.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18 minutes ago, awright-31 said:

I spent some time in Wagoner County earlier this year. I'm from WA so not used to the extreme humidity. Remember when I arrived and my hands started sticking to the steering wheel. I'll take the dry heat, thanks.

 

[Cloud]

Timing  

we are now less than a week away! 

[Cloud]

And by Friday afternoon. A decent rain maker. Still going. 

[Cloud]