October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

[Gradient Keeper]

Pattern change begins Day 5.5

[SnowWillarrive]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just got back to North Bend... its absurd 79 degrees here right now with a brisk east wind.   High in North Bend was 85 today.

Crazy 75 here. Wtf 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM Day 6

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

The GFS is neutering the end of the week trough more and more each run. It’s slight, but it’s not a good trend. The Euro weakened the trough a bit on the 12z too. Can we just got a widespread .50’’ of rain in 24 hours? Is that so hard?

[TT-SEA]

13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The city shots of Seattle during the game looked awful. So much smoke. 

I recorded the game and just going through it now... it did not look as bad as I was expecting.   Not sure if they mentioned the smoke during the broadcast but they didn't mention it when setting the stage at the start of the game.   They just said it was a beautiful day.

[fubario]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I recorded the game and just going through it now... it did not look as bad as I was expecting.   Not sure if they mentioned the smoke during the broadcast but they didn't mention it when setting the stage at the start of the game.   They just said it was a beautiful day.

hope your recording doesn't run out

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

Tim, looks like you’re in the sweet spot for QPF late next week. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, fubario said:

hope your recording doesn't run out

Ironically... I recorded the game after the Mariners just in case.    But don't actually want to watch it to the end.   I lived through that exhausting 6 hours already.   I just want to see what the scene looked like early in the game since the Mariners fans waited 21 years for playoff baseball being played in Seattle.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Tim, looks like you’re in the sweet spot for QPF late next week. 

No surprise there.   But at this point I welcome all we can get.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[MossMan]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I recorded the game and just going through it now... it did not look as bad as I was expecting.   Not sure if they mentioned the smoke during the broadcast but they didn't mention it when setting the stage at the start of the game.   They just said it was a beautiful day.

They did mention it at sunset and talked about what the air quality index would need to reach for them to postpone the game and that it had not reached that point. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

56˚F here after a max of 75.

[MossMan]

Summer is back after an hour in the 50’s. Temp spike up to 64. 

[Cloud]

It’s still 72 out at 10pm on Oct. 15th. That’s right. 72 at 10pm in mid October. 

[MossMan]

Up to 65! 7 degree increase in about 30min. 

[Doinko]

46 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

The GFS is neutering the end of the week trough more and more each run. It’s slight, but it’s not a good trend. The Euro weakened the trough a bit on the 12z too. Can we just got a widespread .50’’ of rain in 24 hours? Is that so hard?

The GFS has been all over the place though

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Down to 55˚F here.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

15 minutes ago, Cloud said:

It’s still 72 out at 10pm on Oct. 15th. That’s right. 72 at 10pm in mid October. 

Can there be any doubt that tomorrow will be an 80+ day at KSEA?

[Doinko]

Looks like the Fishhawk loop fire is going to send a bunch of smoke to the metro area tomorrow. 

[ShawniganLake]

abbotsford smashed their record by 12 degrees F today

Weather summary
for British Columbia
issued by Environment Canada
at 5:40 p.m. PDT Saturday 15 October 2022.

Discussion.

The following areas will have set a daily maximum temperature record 
on October 15, 2022: 

Abbotsford Area (Abbotsford A) 
Preliminary new record of 28.5 
Old record of 21.8 set in 1991 
Records in this area have been kept since 1944 

Agassiz Area (Agassiz RCS) 
Preliminary new record of 28.2 
Old record of 23.9 set in 1896 
Records in this area have been kept since 1889 

Bella Bella Area (Bella Bella) 
Preliminary new record of 22.2 
Old record of 18.2 set in 2015 
Records in this area have been kept since 1977 

Bella Coola Area (Bella Coola Airport) 
Preliminary new record of 22.8 
Old record of 20.6 set in 1969 
Records in this area have been kept since 1895 

Burns Lake Area (Burns Lake Decker Lake) 
Preliminary new record of 20.3 
Old record of 17.4 set in 1986 
Records in this area have been kept since 1949 

Comox Area (Comox A) 
Preliminary new record of 19.3 
Old record of 16.7 set in 1963 
Records in this area have been kept since 1914 

Courtenay Area (Comox A) 
Preliminary new record of 19.3 
Old record of 16.7 set in 1963 
Records in this area have been kept since 1914 

Estevan Point Area (Estevan Point CS) 
Preliminary new record of 18.1 
Old record of 17.5 set in 2018 
Records in this area have been kept since 1908 

Gibsons Area (Sechelt Aut) 
Preliminary new record of 23.3 
Old record of 20.0 set in 1963 
Records in this area have been kept since 1949 

Hope Area (Hope Airport) 
Preliminary new record of 28.0 
Old record of 22.4 set in 1991 
Records in this area have been kept since 1936 

Mackenzie Area (Mackenzie Airport Auto) 
Preliminary new record of 18.3 
Old record of 16.9 set in 1986 
Records in this area have been kept since 1971 

Malahat Area (Malahat) 
Preliminary new record of 23.3 
Old record of 20.8 set in 2002 
Records in this area have been kept since 1986 

Pemberton Area (Pemberton Airport CS) 
Preliminary new record of 24.0 
Old record of 21.5 set in 2002 
Records in this area have been kept since 1908 

Pitt Meadows Area (Pitt Meadows CS) 
Preliminary new record of 27.5 
Old record of 22.5 set in 1991 
Records in this area have been kept since 1874 

Port Alberni Area (Port Alberni (AUT)) 
Preliminary new record of 27.6 
Old record of 23.3 set in 1907 
Records in this area have been kept since 1900 

Powell River Area (Powell River) 
Preliminary new record of 23.2 
Old record of 18.9 set in 1929 
Records in this area have been kept since 1924 

Prince Rupert Area (Prince Rupert) 
Preliminary new record of 19.0 
Old record of 16.7 set in 1954 
Records in this area have been kept since 1908 

Quesnel Area (Quesnel Airport Auto) 
Preliminary new record of 20.2 
Old record of 20.0 set in 1963 
Records in this area have been kept since 1893 

Sechelt Area (Sechelt Aut) 
Preliminary new record of 23.3 
Old record of 17.0 set in 1978 
Records in this area have been kept since 1956 

Smithers Area (Smithers Airport Auto) 
Preliminary new record of 19.6 
Old record of 18.3 set in 1961 
Records in this area have been kept since 1938 

Squamish Area (Squamish Airport) 
Preliminary new record of 29.1 
Old record of 21.5 set in 2002 
Records in this area have been kept since 1960 

Tatlayoko Lake Area (Tatlayoko Lake RCS) 
Preliminary new record of 22.9 
Old record of 20.0 set in 1974 
Records in this area have been kept since 1930 

Terrace Area (Terrace A) 
Preliminary new record of 18.4 
Old record of 18.3 set in 1969 
Records in this area have been kept since 1912 

Victoria Area (Victoria Intl A) 
Preliminary new record of 25.3 
Old record of 19.6 set in 2015 
Records in this area have been kept since 1914 

Victoria Harbour Area (Victoria Gonzales CS) 
Preliminary new record of 22.8 
Old record of 20.0 set in 1895 
Records in this area have been kept since 1874 

Whistler Area (Whistler - Nesters) 
Preliminary new record of 22.1 
Old record of 20.9 set in 1991 
Records in this area have been kept since 1950 

White Rock Area (White Rock Campbell Scientific) 
Preliminary new record of 24.2 
Old record of 23.3 set in 1929 
Records in this area have been kept since 1929 

Williams Lake Area (Williams Lake A) 
Preliminary new record of 20.1 
Old record of 20.0 set in 1961 
Records in this area have been kept since 1960 

 

[TT-SEA]

Watching Dodgers-Padres game in San Diego and it just started dumping rain there.  

[SnowWillarrive]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Up to 65! 7 degree increase in about 30min. 

No snow for you

[Gradient Keeper]

Model comparison - Day 5 ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Gradient Keeper]

Model Comparison - Day 6 ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[NWbyNW]

Let the NIGHT SHIFT BEGIN!  We are the Weather Forum's Night Crew! 

We got some crazy stuff to go over.  It's going to be real complex from Oregon clearing out of most low level smoke, except for Portland, and Washington having to suffer for several days still, but a hint of good news.  Let's begin.

WASHINGTON SMOKE FORECAST

So Washington will likely see these massive belches of smoke from the fires, as will Oregon.  The below graphics show the moment they are predicted to blow followed by their aftermath as the smoke continues to blow NE.  Stay with me, good news is below!

So while these fire will spew smoke, a lot will bypass the Puget Sound and cover Whatcom County and the Lower Mainland of BC.  Winds will be in full force blowing NE tomorrow.  We will still see smoke, but hopefully HOPEFULLY not as much as today.  Now the good news. 

The strong east wind will slow down Sunday and by the evening hours of Sunday, we will see onshore flow.  This will help us start clearing the smoke away, but make things unwell for Wenatchee as all the smoke will blow their way.  A brief marine push will create cloudy skies for Monday morning, higher humidities and coastal drizzle and should help significantly clean up the smoke.  We will likely still have moderate smokey air conditions, but not the unhealthy AQI levels we saw Saturday and part of Sunday.  Finger crossed for the marine push come next Saturday because after our marine push on Monday and Tuesday, it will shift to a flat, almost stagnant pattern.  Smoke might creep back into Western Washington.  We'll have to wait and see how the models predict this.

OREGON Smoke Forecast

Oregon has seen a lot less smoke through this event, but if you live in the Portland metro, the worst is yet to come!  More on that in a second.  The fires in the Cascade's will blow out some smoke tomorrow morning and in the afternoon causing conditions to be kinda crummy for places like Eugene, but as winds aim NE, this smoke will begin to miss Eugene altogether.

Models show as the onshore winds come in Sunday (earlier than Washington), the smoke will be blown back and possibly all of Western Oregon will be mostly clear of low level smoke, as shown below.  There is one exception...

The exception is Portland.  Now the models might be overzealous, but it is showing the Fishhook Loop Fire will inundate Portland in some of the nastiest smoke they've seen in awhile.  While the onshore push is good for everyone else, it will actually push the smoke from the wildfire just west of Portland, eastward into the metro!  So the rest of Oregon will clear out, but Portland will be in a soupy smoke mess.  It is estimated to happen in the afternoon and through the night.  

If the models are to be believed, Monday looks like this smoke will actually stick around in Portland allowing the Rose City to experience what Seattle has been dealing with for coming on two weeks now. 

Stay tuned for more. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Phenomenal EURO run!

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, NWbyNW said:

Let the NIGHT SHIFT BEGIN!  We are the Weather Forum's Night Crew! 

We got some crazy stuff to go over.  It's going to be real complex from Oregon clearing out of most low level smoke, except for Portland, and Washington having to suffer for several days still, but a hint of good news.  Let's begin.

WASHINGTON SMOKE FORECAST

So Washington will likely see these massive belches of smoke from the fires, as will Oregon.  The below graphics show the moment they are predicted to blow followed by their aftermath as the smoke continues to blow NE.  Stay with me, good news is below!

So while these fire will spew smoke, a lot will bypass the Puget Sound and cover Whatcom County and the Lower Mainland of BC.  Winds will be in full force blowing NE tomorrow.  We will still see smoke, but hopefully HOPEFULLY not as much as today.  Now the good news. 

The strong east wind will slow down Sunday and by the evening hours of Sunday, we will see onshore flow.  This will help us start clearing the smoke away, but make things unwell for Wenatchee as all the smoke will blow their way.  A brief marine push will create cloudy skies for Monday morning, higher humidities and coastal drizzle and should help significantly clean up the smoke.  We will likely still have moderate smokey air conditions, but not the unhealthy AQI levels we saw Saturday and part of Sunday.  Finger crossed for the marine push come next Saturday because after our marine push on Monday and Tuesday, it will shift to a flat, almost stagnant pattern.  Smoke might creep back into Western Washington.  We'll have to wait and see how the models predict this.

OREGON Smoke Forecast

Oregon has seen a lot less smoke through this event, but if you live in the Portland metro, the worst is yet to come!  More on that in a second.  The fires in the Cascade's will blow out some smoke tomorrow morning and in the afternoon causing conditions to be kinda crummy for places like Eugene, but as winds aim NE, this smoke will begin to miss Eugene altogether.

Models show as the onshore winds come in Sunday (earlier than Washington), the smoke will be blown back and possibly all of Western Oregon will be mostly clear of low level smoke, as shown below.  There is one exception...

The exception is Portland.  Now the models might be overzealous, but it is showing the Fishhook Loop Fire will inundate Portland in some of the nastiest smoke they've seen in awhile.  While the onshore push is good for everyone else, it will actually push the smoke from the wildfire just west of Portland, eastward into the metro!  So the rest of Oregon will clear out, but Portland will be in a soupy smoke mess.  It is estimated to happen in the afternoon and through the night.  

If the models are to be believed, Monday looks like this smoke will actually stick around in Portland allowing the Rose City to experience what Seattle has been dealing with for coming on two weeks now. 

Stay tuned for more. 

Nice job on this. Yeah, it's PDXs turn for awful smoke and air quality.

[snow_wizard]

Very impressive ECMWF run.  Now that is a reversal!

[Sonny Summers]

3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 9'er

I'm still adjusting to seeing a trough parked over the PNW. It's been a long time.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Phenomenal EURO run!

I love the way that giant trough gets so suppressed by the above normal heights over the Arctic.

[Sonny Summers]

Thanks to all the night crew!

[NWbyNW]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Nice job on this. Yeah, it's PDXs turn for awful smoke and air quality.

I wish this smoke soup on no one.  It quite literally stinks.

2 of the 3 models I was looking at showed this happening to Portland.  Hopefully it won't happen, but there is the development of that new fire and it's very possible it could happen.  It depends how much smoke the Fishhoop Loop fire is making.  Oddly the Larch Mountain Fire near Camas isn't really effecting Portland or Vancouver much thanks to the NE winds.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10 One heck of a persistent trough

[The Blob]

6 hours ago, selkirks said:

The comparison to northern California (places like San José or Salinas) is extremely apt this fall. Super warm with cool mornings, and almost no fall color like usual. Almost a Mediterranean feel. 

And yet the sun angles are almost the same as it is for the winter solstice in SoCal. It honestly feels like December to me.

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, Sonny Summers said:

I'm still adjusting to seeing a trough parked over the PNW. It's been a long time.

No doubt!

6z GFS in 2 hours 38 minutes