October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[snow_wizard]

11 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I’m sorry man, but it feels like you say something like this almost every year.

Well...pretty much everyone on here is saying the same thing.  Are you seriously trying to imply this is not at the outer fringes of unusual?  You're really reaching here.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, selkirks said:

It's just what the experts say! Of course, aside from a few high-impact fires, this fire season was much improved over the past few years.

Thanks Cliff.

[selkirks]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Thanks Cliff.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

 

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/cold-anomaly-stratosphere-polar-vortex-volcanic-cooling-winter-influence-fa/#:~:text=The January eruption of Hunga,cooling of the southern stratosphere.

 

Stratospheric cooling can lead to lower level warming.  It's happened already in the Southern Hemisphere in relation to the eruption and most likely in the process of spreading North and/or at least influencing Synoptic patterns in the Northern Hemisphere

It hasn't happened.  SH is -0.2 on the latest daily obs.  Has been for weeks.

Daily Updates | Climate Concerns (wordpress.com)

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, selkirks said:

There’s going to be undergrowth on the west side of the Cascades every year. It’s a wet area with dense forests. The, long unprecedentedly hot and dry summer is pretty much the number one factor in the bad fire season up that way.

Anyway, all I was pointing out was how impressive it is to see so many fires north of I-90 and west of the Cascades. Up until now that area has largely been spared from the fires much of the rest of the region has been seeing. The years of heat and drought are finally catching up, one wet spring doesn’t really change the equation all that much.

[Chewbacca Defense]

Smoky mess up here the last 2 days, I had to spend all day outside yesterday getting my deck painted before the upcoming pattern change.  Definitely feeling it in my lungs today.  I think we had some ash falling this morning when I took the dog out at 6.

 

Got down to 48 last night, and back up to 64 now.  Soooooo looking forward to the rain!!!

[Phil]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Before the deep troughing descends on the PNW... just look at that cold trough over the Midwest and NE.   Forecast for Minneapolis tomorrow is 34/24 which is seriously impressive for the middle of October.     Some extreme 500mb patterns for the last few months and we are about to see the flip side too.

 

Mid-Atlantic Appalachians are going to get a solid upslope snow event this week.

I’m just praying it doesn’t snow here. October snow is the ultimate winter curse on this region. Literally every year it snows in October is followed by a dud winter. Last time it happened was 2011.  

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Well...pretty much everyone on here is saying the same thing.  Are you seriously trying to imply this is not at the outer fringes of unusual?  You're really reaching here.

We’ve been pushing the outer fringes of unusual for warmth pretty regularly  for years now. We’ve gotten some payback here and there, but nothing close to matching the anomalous nature of all the warmth we’ve seen, both in terms of standalone airmasses and persistence. Which makes sense considering the climate is warming.

[Phil]

Even with the pattern change, dry is the theme in the PNW. I really don’t think there is going to be much of a jet this winter.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GEFS Day 1-10 persistent troughing, chilly!

[Doinko]

9 minutes ago, Phil said:

Even with the pattern change, dry is the theme in the PNW. I really don’t think there is going to be much of a jet this winter.

Not good for the drought situation

[TacomaWx]

Geez already 71 at home at 11am. Have never seen such a warm start to a day this late in the year. 71 at 11am is pretty warm for even mid summer. 

[snow_wizard]

25 minutes ago, HoodCanalBridge said:

Never seen that before.  Hard to believe in all the years I've been here I've never seen a major fire in that area.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

Geez already 71 at home at 11am. Have never seen such a warm start to a day this late in the year. 71 at 11am is pretty warm for even mid summer. 

80 here.  I think that qualifies as pretty unheard of for this time of year.

[Doinko]

Another easy 80 for Portland today probably, 77 already at 11 am. Looks like the record of 80 today is from 2002.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, Doiinko said:

Another easy 80 for Portland today probably, 77 already at 11 am. Looks like the record of 80 today is from 2002.

I remember that one. Got really cold (but stayed pretty dry) a few weeks later. Awesome winter followed.

[snow_wizard]

19 minutes ago, Phil said:

Even with the pattern change, dry is the theme in the PNW. I really don’t think there is going to be much of a jet this winter.

I still think we might sneak in a wet Nov or Dec.  This could be setting the stage for a very cold / blocky winter.  With Tonga in play who knows for sure though.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I remember that one. Got really cold (but stayed pretty dry) a few weeks later. Awesome winter followed.

El Nino.  You're totally forgetting about context.  Just like you weenie tagging me for my comment on 1952.  That was a super cold year with numerous record lows.  You really think that's an analog?  Reality is not on your side with your comments.

[TacomaWx]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

80 here.  I think that qualifies as pretty unheard of for this time of year.

The low of 73 this morning at your house is just unreal…obviously won’t stand but that’s wild. We got down to 50 this morning. 

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I remember that one. Got really cold (but stayed pretty dry) a few weeks later. Awesome winter followed.

There are also a few records on the 20th and 21st from 2003 which also had some cold late month.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

El Nino.  You're totally forgetting about context.  Just like you weenie tagging me for my comment on 1952.  That was a super cold year with numerous record lows.  You really think that's an analog?  Reality is not on your side with your comments.

I didn’t say anything about it being an analog? As for the last part, glass houses, Jim.

I see you conveniently ignored my warning climate related comments too.

[snow_wizard]

21 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

We’ve been pushing the outer fringes of unusual for warmth pretty regularly  for years now. We’ve gotten some payback here and there, but nothing close to matching the anomalous nature of all the warmth we’ve seen, both in terms of standalone airmasses and persistence. Which makes sense considering the climate is warming.

This is way outside of what would be expected from the small amount of global warming that has actually happened.  If you would open your mind and look at past cases with abnormal warmth and dryness in a La Nina autumn you might see the chances are pretty good of scoring this winter.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I didn’t say anything about it being an analog? As for the last part, glass houses, Jim.

I see you conveniently ignored my warning climate related comments too.

You need to calm down dude.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

This is way outside of what would be expected from the small amount of global warming that has actually happened.  If you would open your mind and look at past cases with abnormal warmth and dryness in a La Nina autumn you might see the chances are pretty good of scoring this winter.

A relatively “small” amount of temperature rise globally is not at all incongruous with statistically much larger warm events on the local or regional scale.

[Sonny Summers]

22 minutes ago, selkirks said:

May and June 1991 were very cold and wet in Spokane. June 1991 is still the coldest on record. July-September was bone dry during that same year. In October 1991 Spokane had a firestorm fueled by 60 MPH winds. There were multiple factors that contributed to that urban wildfire. Extra fuels from the wet spring was one them.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

You need to calm down dude.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, Sonny Summers said:

May and June 1991 were very cold and wet in Spokane. June 1991 is still the coldest on record. July-September was bone dry during that same year. In October 1991 Spokane had a firestorm fueled by 60 MPH winds. There were multiple factors that contributed to that urban wildfire. Extra fuels from the wet spring was one them.

Spokane is a wildly different climate than the foothills of the north cascades. I do love how people here can take an entirely reasonable observation and completely bastardize it to fit their biases though. Clearly wet springs are the main culprit behind all of the massive fires the region has seen the last decade

[snow_wizard]

31 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

12z GEFS Day 1-10 persistent troughing, chilly!

Big improvement from previous runs.  I can hardly imagine how good that chill is going to feel with it so hot today.

[snow_wizard]

ECMWF looks great so far.

[Doinko]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

ECMWF looks great so far.

The last two runs of the Euro have also showed really low snow levels. I hope this one continues with that!

[Anti Marine Layer]

Bizarre pattern remains with the boundary between the cold and damp muck and the hot and dry wind clearly visible.

[snow_wizard]

This run is faster with the arrival of the trough than the 0z.  Looking good!

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Bizarre pattern remains with the boundary between the cold and damp muck and the hot and dry wind clearly visible.

Never seen anything like this October.

[TacomaWx]

76 now in Tacoma…never seen it this warm in October at any point in my lifetime but on October 16th before noon is pretty impressive. 

[joelgombiner]

2 hours ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Is that another fire? 

Looks like that would be the Loch Katrine fire.

Apparently started on 9/2/22  (https://gacc.nifc.gov/nwcc/information/firemap.aspx), but blew up with the ongoing east wind event. Seems to have grown in large pulses overnight and this morning. Pulsing smoke and now generating a continuous plume. 

 

 

 

coinciding with some of the strongest east winds through the Cascades...  

[Doinko]

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Gonna be the longest work week ever

[Doinko]

Very low snow levels especially in the North Sound

[RentonHill]

Tommy likey

[Cloud]

SEA hit 80 at noon. Wow…

this feels downright oppressive for this time of year. Unreal.