October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[Front Ranger]

40 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Sitting at 85 now.  It is irritatingly warm out there.  If my low of 73 were to hold I would be looking at a +30 departure today.

It will not.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just 71F in Springfield on up to Tangent. A little warmer than normal but otherwise pretty nice day!!

How is it so much cooler here? Usually the opposite happens.

[Front Ranger]

Haven't been this excited for an upcoming period of western troughing for awhile.

All hail the Euro.

[ShawniganLake]

Weird to think that the rainfall deficits for October could be pretty well wiped out by Halloween 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

It will not.

[snow_wizard]

16 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

I've always been 

I've always been impressed by the weak correlation between ENSO and our climate. I remember hearing the Washington state climatologist say that ENSO has little predictive power for Washington weather. 

There is certainly some correlation.  A lot of winters with Nina are very snowy in the mountains for instance, while the opposite is true with Nino.  It's provable that heights are higher over the NE Pacific during winter with a Nina than a Nino.  That of course means more W to NW flow instead of SW.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, ShawniganLake said:

Weird to think that the rainfall deficits for October could be pretty well wiped out by Halloween 

I'm not sure it will be THAT wet given how NW the flow will be.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

It will not.

I know.  It could be 50 or lower by midnight with that low dp.

[Cascadia_Wx]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That’s a really good point Jesse. If we look at the past few years things have not been balanced at all. The heat has far outweighed the cold. Sure our winters have featured a few nice cold snaps, but meaningful cold has really been limited to February 2019, October 2019, and April 2022, if we are talking about regionally top tier stuff. I don’t even have space to write about all the warmth we have experienced the past few years, and let’s not even get started on the past decade. Even though last December had legit Arctic air north of Seattle, the bigger anomalies happened at the beginning of the month. We also saw massive torching in January and February in many places across the PNW, especially where inversions weren’t in place. It has been 6 years since we saw a winter which didn’t feature epic torching at some point. If not for 3 days in February 2021, that would have been remembered as one of the most fruitless Ninas of all time. Yet I still have hope the worm will turn. 

Why think you Andrew. Of course this take is far too rational to gain a lot of traction here.

[Front Ranger]

36 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Now this is interesting.  Some people consider the MEI to be a better measure of ENSO and it is squarely in strong Nina territory.  Actually as strong 1988 on the last update.  That makes the current weather seem even more likely to result in a major reckoning moving forward.  Another thing I noticed is the 1998 - 2001 La Nina had a less impressive MEI.  Might account for the not so great winters on that one.

MEI.v2: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory

Correlates with the higher NPI we are seeing now as well.

The 1998-01 Nina had relatively weak NPI.

[snow_wizard]

22 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

We will need things to trend quite a bit colder for the lowlands to see snow. 850s around 0C aren’t gonna produce much below pass level. 

Of course, but the ECMWF has been hinting at an Arctic front just after day 10.

[Front Ranger]

4 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Weird to think that the rainfall deficits for October could be pretty well wiped out by Halloween 

Thanks, Tim.

[Meatyorologist]

90F here. Unbelievable.

[Front Ranger]

This might have already been mentioned, but today is the latest 80+ day in SEA history, beating 10/14/61.

[snow_wizard]

I stand behind the statement about the ECMWF.  The 0z had cold continental air just north of the Candian border and surface gradient shifting to north in WA at day 10.  The 12z was similar and the EPS control actually has the Cold air reaching WA just after day 10.  Again...just stating what the models show.  The only reason I have to explain myself is because of Jesse's childish emojis.  

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

90F here. Unbelievable.

Insane.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

90F here. Unbelievable.

Now if we can just rewrite the history books in the other direction that would be great. 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

This might have already been mentioned, but today is the latest 80+ day in SEA history, beating 10/14/61.

The latest I know of for Landsburg was on the 23rd in 1929.  It would probably be worth a deeper dive on that.

[Meatyorologist]

It hardly makes sense. The angle of the sun, the time of day, the temperature outside. A combination I've never seen or felt before.

It actually feels much hotter out due to the low sun angles. More of your body is directly hit on its face, rather than a glancing blow from directly above.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Now if we can just rewrite the history books in the other direction that would be great. 

Where and when is that?

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

It hardly makes sense. The angle of the sun, the time of day, the temperature outside. A combination I've never seen or felt before.

It actually feels much hotter out due to the low sun angles. More of your body is directly hit on its face, rather than a glancing blow from directly above.

It's also we are used to the recent cooler temps.  This came out of left field.

[crf450ish]

My 89 year old grandfather was an avid outdoorsman his entire life up until around 10 years ago when his health started to decline.

This weekend is the opener of modern firearm for deer hunting season. He told me that he doesn't remember an opening weekend for deer season with temperatures this warm, he's been a deer hunter simce he was a kid. Also mentioned it's unsafe and dangerous to be hunting with guns being that it is as warm and dry as it is.

 

 

I haven't searched the records nor have I lurked around the forum in a while. Just hopped on here to see what everyone is saying about the extended summer... which brings me to my question - when's the last time the PNW seen an extended summer such as what were in now? And more importantly, what was the following winter like?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I stand behind the statement about the ECMWF.  The 0z had cold continental air just north of the Candian border and surface gradient shifting to north in WA at day 10.  The 12z was similar and the EPS control actually has the Cold air reaching WA just after day 10.  Again...just stating what the models show.  The only reason I have to explain myself is because of Jesse's childish emojis.  

[Meatyorologist]

I normally don't pin my own posts but what is happening here at my place is truly remarkable.

18F above the previous record high for the date. That is a real stat.

1F above the previous monthly record at KSEA... More than 2 weeks later in the month than the previous holder.

First 90F ever for the month of October. Recorded in its second half.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

7 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

This might have already been mentioned, but today is the latest 80+ day in SEA history, beating 10/14/61.

And a record number of 80+ October days as well.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, crf450ish said:

My 89 year old grandfather was an avid outdoorsman his entire life up until around 10 years ago when his health started to decline.

This weekend is the opener of modern firearm for deer hunting season. He told me that he doesn't remember an opening weekend for deer season with temperatures this warm, he's been a deer hunter simce he was a kid. Also mentioned it's unsafe and dangerous to be hunting with guns being that it is as warm and dry as it is.

 

 

I haven't searched the records nor have I lurked around the forum in a while. Just hopped on here to see what everyone is saying about the extended summer... which brings me to my question - when's the last time the PNW seen an extended summer such as what were in now? And more importantly, what was the following winter like?

Never.  The closest examples were mixed results, but this being a Nina makes at least one really good month a decent bet.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, crf450ish said:

This weekend is the opener of modern firearm for deer hunting season. He told me that he doesn't remember an opening weekend for deer season with temperatures this warm, he's been a deer hunter simce he was a kid. Also mentioned it's unsafe and dangerous to be hunting with guns being that it is as warm and dry as it is.

Yes, they should really postpone the opening of the season due to conditions.

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It's also we are used to the recent cooler temps.  This came out of left field.

Hottest week ever in July followed by top tier warm August, September and first half of October don’t count? This didn’t come of left field, it’s just a continuation of the same pattern we’ve been stuck in for months now.

[SnowWillarrive]

12 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

90F here. Unbelievable.

Might get to 100 degrees at this rate 

[FroYoBro]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It's also we are used to the recent cooler temps.  This came out of left field.

What reality do you live in? 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Hottest week ever in July followed by top tier warm August, September and first half of October don’t count? This didn’t come of left field, it’s just a continuation of the same pattern we’ve been stuck in for months now.

Plus, the models have been saying this weekend could be super-torchy for at least a week, and the way this month has been going, it would have been a surprise for such runs NOT to verify.

[Meatyorologist]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It's also we are used to the recent cooler temps.  This came out of left field.

What???? This insinuates that;

1. It has been appreciably cooler in recent weeks.

2. 90F doesn't normally feel hot??

[TacomaWx]

Still 82 here. Almost like the June 2021 level of nuts (not quite though)

[Requiem]

Not that what the Nakia Creek Fire is doing now is at all good but we're so lucky the NE winds didn't mesh topographically with conducive fire spread (I'd assume) because that thing would be almost all the way to Lacamas if so.

[Cascadia_Wx]

4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

What???? This insinuates that;

1. It has been appreciably cooler in recent weeks.

2. 90F doesn't normally feel hot??

I guess Jim wants me to be banned again for this sort of thing. Maybe it will go better for you.

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

What???? This insinuates that;

1. It has been appreciably cooler in recent weeks.

2. 90F doesn't normally feel hot??

I was just saying we've had days recently in the 60s and nights in the 40s.  A 90 out of left field really magnifies it.  In the summer the sun is much more intense, but your point about it hitting you at an angle is interesting.  I didn't mean anything by it.

I see you might have misconstrued the out of left field part of my post.  I meant the 90 came out of left field not your comment.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I guess Jim wants me to be banned again for this sort of thing. Maybe it will go better for you.

It's because you have been such an ass to myself and others.  Just like the other times you got banned.

I warn people to not get on your bad side.  Sheesh!

[Deweydog]

breaking news

Our climate is warming and Jim is nutty.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

It's because you have been such an a** to myself and others.  Just like the other times you got banned.

Look back at anything I’ve posted today and show me what’s ban worthy. Assuming disagreeing with you and having a realistic take on what our climate is doing isn’t enough.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

21 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It's also we are used to the recent cooler temps.  This came out of left field.

Wat?!

Edited October 16, 2022 by SilverFallsAndrew