October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[Doinko]

[Deweydog]

Nakia Creek fire blowing up.

[Doinko]

Just now, Deweydog said:

Nakia Creek fire blowing up.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Worst smoke yet, here in Victoria. First day of the event the air quality has actually been considered poor (we mostly lucked out with the low-level N/NW winds keeping surface air quality good). The winds were gusting all last night, ended up with a 62F low this morning. Having a low several degrees warmer than the average high on a clear October day feels pretty bizarre. In general, our climate has a lot of difficulty in producing lows greater than the average high or highs lower than the average low between April and October. They're much easier to come by November to March, it's much also easier to get highs lower than the average low in those months.

[Doinko]

Can't believe we're talking about model runs showing low snow levels and feet of snow in the Cascades while also tracking smoke from fires and 80 degree temps around the region.

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

It hasn't happened.  SH is -0.2 on the latest daily obs.  Has been for weeks.

Daily Updates | Climate Concerns (wordpress.com)

I really have no clue if the Hunga Tonga Ha'apai eruption has caused any warming at the surface... I haven't looked into it at all. But I should note that you can't dismiss the idea of any warming based off a single data point, using a single parameter, pulled from a single source. Really unscientific.

Not saying that there is or isn't. What I am saying is that what you keep referencing here isn't really...evidence...

[Meatyorologist]

5 minutes ago, Cloud said:

SEA hit 80 at noon. Wow…

this feels downright oppressive for this time of year. Unreal. 

what the hell???? I look away from the obs for one moment and this.

do we dare push 90F today?!?

[kokaneekidz]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

what the hell???? I look away from the obs for one moment and this.

do we dare push 90F today?!?

probably the infinite number 88

[Kolk1604]

This run is more wet than the 00z and we've lost the -PNA! 

[Meatyorologist]

Mid 80s in the east wind belt north of Covington-Maple Valley.

[selkirks]

Such a weird smoke map right now. NE Seattle is fine while NW Seattle chokes, and all is well around Lake Sammamish, even though last night that was the worst place to be.

[TacomaWx]

Just about into north bend right now and there’s no smoke here. Looks like it’s all north of Seattle for now. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Unfortunately both the Nakia Creek and Siouxon fires are really blowing up with huge plumes now evident. This is producing thick smoke in portions of Clark County with even ash falling in localized areas. This explosive fire behavior is due to the strong offshore flow and low humidity. Nakia Creek fire was 20% contained as of early this morning. I would assume, but cannot confirm that those containment lines are holding now.

[Doinko]

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

Unfortunately both the Nakia Creek and Siouxon fires are really blowing up with huge plumes now evident. This is producing thick smoke in portions of Clark County with even ash falling in localized areas. This explosive fire behavior is due to the strong offshore flow and low humidity. Nakia Creek fire was 20% contained as of early this morning. I would assume, but cannot confirm that those containment lines are holding now.

Air quality hasn't been too bad here so far, Airnow says 41 so I hope it stays that way

[Meatyorologist]

9 minutes ago, selkirks said:

Such a weird smoke map right now. NE Seattle is fine while NW Seattle chokes, and all is well around Lake Sammamish, even though last night that was the worst place to be.

Okay! So this is actually some really cool meteorology! The clearer air in NE Seattle is actually today's easterlies breaking through to the surface.

Yesterday, when easterlies re-emerged, they carried with them smoke that built up in the Cascade Valleys for over a week. That's why it was so bad yesterday; it was a week's worth of smoke hitting us all at once!

The easterlies breaking through to the surface here today isn't actually the same air. It's air aloft from Nevada and NorCal being forced to the surface by very strong ridging. Cleaner air, for sure. I can see and smell the difference here in the heart of it. But it's also much, much hotter air, heated adiabatically from 1000s of feet up! Very strong SW-NE temperature gradient over North Seattle. Low 70s in Ballard, mid-upper 80s in Lake City. 85F here at my place...88F just half a mile away!!

[TacomaWx]

Car thermometer says 86 in North bend right now. WTF. Also bizzare to see that the trees have not changed colors just look slightly brown. Colors were extremely good in Idaho/Montana. 

[selkirks]

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Okay! So this is actually some really cool meteorology! The clearer air in NE Seattle is actually today's easterlies breaking through to the surface.

Yesterday, when easterlies re-emerged, they carried with them smoke that built up in the Cascade Valleys for over a week. That's why it was so bad yesterday; it was a week's worth of smoke hitting us all at once!

The easterlies breaking through to the surface here today isn't actually the same air. It's air aloft from Nevada and NorCal being forced to the surface by very strong ridging. Cleaner air, for sure. I can see and smell the difference here in the heart of it. But it's also much, much hotter air, heated adiabatically from 1000s of feet up! Very strong SW-NE temperature gradient over North Seattle. Low 70s in Ballard, mid-upper 80s in Lake City. 85F here at my place...88F just half a mile away!!

Fantastic explanation and fascinating indeed! Thanks! 

[Meatyorologist]

All local weather stations in NE Seattle have a sharp DP drop and temp increase in the last few hours, with winds generally switching SE'ly where properly exposed. Textbook.

[Meatyorologist]

Textbook October Katabatic heatwave for SoCal, I should say...

[Gradient Keeper]

[snow_wizard]

30 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Can't believe we're talking about model runs showing low snow levels and feet of snow in the Cascades while also tracking smoke from fires and 80 degree temps around the region.

This is going to be one of the all time great turnarounds.  Seems like some on here have talked about this for a while now.

[Deweydog]

Lots of evacuations in progress.

[snow_wizard]

83 here with a dp of freezing.  Can't wait to see the plunge when the sun goes down.

[snow_wizard]

14 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Car thermometer says 86 in North bend right now. WTF. Also bizzare to see that the trees have not changed colors just look slightly brown. Colors were extremely good in Idaho/Montana. 

It will be interesting to see how the trees react to the coming crash.

[Doinko]

[Sonny Summers]

These don't mean much, but they're interesting.

[Cloud]

36 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

what the hell???? I look away from the obs for one moment and this.

do we dare push 90F today?!?

It already overperformed as many local meteorologists said we *could* push 80. It’s spiking everywhere. 
 

and with that, today will be the latest 80 ever on record. 

[Cloud]

Few stations along the foothills are recording mid to upper 80s. Whomp whomp. 

[snow_wizard]

44 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I really have no clue if the Hunga Tonga Ha'apai eruption has caused any warming at the surface... I haven't looked into it at all. But I should note that you can't dismiss the idea of any warming based off a single data point, using a single parameter, pulled from a single source. Really unscientific.

Not saying that there is or isn't. What I am saying is that what you keep referencing here isn't really...evidence...

Single data point?  That's an average of many locations.

[Winterdog]

I just broke 70 here.  DP at 53 with noticeable smoke but not as bad as yesterday

[snow_wizard]

43 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

This run is more wet than the 00z and we've lost the -PNA! 

-6?  Wow!

[Doinko]

82 at PDX

[snow_wizard]

Great analogs today.  1971 and 1956 are the top two for the pattern at day 8.  Both multi year Ninas with +QBO.

[Doinko]

Not good

 

[Gradient Keeper]

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Doiinko said:

Not good

 

We post this at the same exact time. No. This is a fire storm now. We need the east winds to back off. We need the PDX-DLS gradient down to -3mb or less, then we will really see marked improvement. The 12z WRF 1.33km Hi-Res model forecasts the gradient to drop off more quickly after 2 PM and much weaker down to -2mb by 5 PM. I sure hope the model is correct.

[Deweydog]

9 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

We post this at the same exact time. No. This is a fire storm now. We need the east winds to back off. We need the PDX-DLS gradient down to -3mb or less, then we will really see marked improvement. The 12z WRF 1.33km Hi-Res model forecasts the gradient to drop off more quickly after 2 PM and much weaker down to -2mb by 5 PM. I sure hope the model is correct.

The SE’erly component is always a big sign that the gradient is rapidly shallowing. 

[Tyler Mode]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

The SE’erly component is always a big sign that the gradient is rapidly shallowing. 

Ya I noticed the smoke plume shifted just before the flare up...which has since died down.  Lots of ash falling here.

[Meatyorologist]

88F at my house! Unbelievable!! Where did this come from???!! Rocketing wayyyy past any and all expectations and it's barely 1pm

[The Blob]

It was 70 when I got home around 5am.

Doesn't TylerMode live near the Nakia fire?