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October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza


TacomaWx

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Tim’s forecast is usually endless rain icons by now.

It’s like we’ve swapped climates.

D8EB5AE9-7B68-4F62-ACF3-F38BE5F444B0.jpeg822C42E0-7134-42DB-A6D4-D381CC9F94CC.jpeg

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Gonna get a wide variety of candy this year and the kids with good, creative costumes will get the full size Twix. The lame costumes will get fun size Dots.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 41F (Nov 21, 2023)
  • Coldest low: 22F (Nov 25, 2023)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 13 (Most recent: Nov 29, 2023)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 30, 2023)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Dec 22, 2022 (31F) *1 sub-freezing high since Jan 14, 2017 (fewest on record during 6 year span)*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Dec 22, 2022 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 1

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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5 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Gonna get a wide variety of candy this year and the kids with good, creative costumes will get the full size Twix. The lame costumes will get fun size Dots.

Interesting way to do it.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 20

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 1

 

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44 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Yet another month of summer…maybe. 

Might be a huge transition.  Definitely not for a while though.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 20

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 1

 

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1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Gonna get a wide variety of candy this year and the kids with good, creative costumes will get the full size Twix. The lame costumes will get fun size Dots.

Penalize kids who can’t afford good costumes/whose parents don’t help them as much. Sounds dope.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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It's October now and we haven't had a frost yet or even the need for heater season yet. The sage bugs were terrible this week so hopefully we get a chill to kill them. Due to our rain we had a two day break from them.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 0.6 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 0.6 on 12/1/2023

Most recent accumulation (non trace): same as above

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.6)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 11/30/23 (3rd)

Coldest low: 18F (11/28/23)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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1 minute ago, Eujunga said:

Here's July-August-September for the entire West. Pretty anomalously warm.

Not sure what station in northeast Lane County is throwing the averages so far off and creating a cool-temperature bull's eye.  It certainly doesn't represent reality.

90dTDeptWRCC.jpg

Warmest July-September ever at SEA.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Jim seems to think it could lead to something great though. Pretty noteworthy since he’s usually such a pessimist every fall...

Jim’s recent post (“Might be a huge transition.  Definitely not for a while though.”) is actually pretty realistic for once. Beyond a week or two out is deep clown range, and climo says there should be a seasonal pattern change soon.

I still think it’s generally going to suck this winter. Even if the rains do, as odds dictate, start this month, it’s going to be such a late start from such a dry summer that mushroom season is going to be a big bust, a’la 2012: by the time it’s wet enough, it will be too cold. And that will be the sucky start to a generally sucky rainy season. (Just a gut feeling, of course.)

It's called clown range for a reason.

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Looks like we made it down to 49F. Currently 51F with some fog.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 41F (Nov 21, 2023)
  • Coldest low: 22F (Nov 25, 2023)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 13 (Most recent: Nov 29, 2023)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 30, 2023)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Dec 22, 2022 (31F) *1 sub-freezing high since Jan 14, 2017 (fewest on record during 6 year span)*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Dec 22, 2022 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 1

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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6 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Penalize kids who can’t afford good costumes/whose parents don’t help them as much. Sounds dope.

You're in fine form this morning.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 20

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 1

 

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4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Low of 50 this morning. 3 years ago…the low temp was 36. 

At least every clear night here is getting well below 50 now.  We'll see if that holds true with the warmer pattern setting in.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 20

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 1

 

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54 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

Here's July-August-September for the entire West. Pretty anomalously warm.

Not sure what station in northeast Lane County is throwing the averages so far off and creating a cool-temperature bull's eye.  It certainly doesn't represent reality.

90dTDeptWRCC.jpg

I suppose one defective sensor in a sparely populated area could throw things off like that.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 20

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 1

 

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38 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Jim’s recent post (“Might be a huge transition.  Definitely not for a while though.”) is actually pretty realistic for once. Beyond a week or two out is deep clown range, and climo says there should be a seasonal pattern change soon.

I still think it’s generally going to suck this winter. Even if the rains do, as odds dictate, start this month, it’s going to be such a late start from such a dry summer that mushroom season is going to be a big bust, a’la 2012: by the time it’s wet enough, it will be too cold. And that will be the sucky start to a generally sucky rainy season. (Just a gut feeling, of course.)

I have been pretty realistic overall lately.  I hate the pattern we are in, but I'm simply pointing out this type of regime this time of year in a Nina has led to great stuff in the winter before.  No doubt this is a lot like 1988 especially when looking at the 500mb level.  I said many times there is also big bust potential this winter.  Isn't a weather forum for throwing ideas out there?  One member in particular seems to get offended by that.  One thing that is nearly certain is this pattern will change.  We'll have to see what that means exactly.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 20

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 1

 

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9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

At least every clear night here is getting well below 50 now.  We'll see if that holds true with the warmer pattern setting in.

We had 3 lows in the 40s in September but never below 48. 

2023-2024 cold season stats

Lowest Max-39

Lowest Min-27

Sub 40 Highs-1

Sub 32 Highs-0

Freezes-13

Rainfall MTD-5.33”

Rainfall (Since 10/1)- 14.22”

Total snowfall-0.0”

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3 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

PDX hasn’t been below 50 since May 22nd. How crazy is that? Might might it really close to 5 months looking at models. 

We also hit some record numbers for warm overnight lows up here. We had 21 +60 lows beating the record of 19 set just last year. Lot of the crooked warm averages set this summer have been due to very warm overnight lows. 

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2023-2024 cold season stats

Lowest Max-39

Lowest Min-27

Sub 40 Highs-1

Sub 32 Highs-0

Freezes-13

Rainfall MTD-5.33”

Rainfall (Since 10/1)- 14.22”

Total snowfall-0.0”

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16 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

We also hit some record numbers for warm overnight lows up here. We had 21 +60 lows beating the record of 19 set just last year. Lot of the crooked warm averages set this summer have been due to very warm overnight lows. 

Indeed.  Even though we came close to beating the 1967 record warm September that one was much hotter for max temps.  The warmth wasn't that noticeable this year (in September) because the maxes were within reason for the most part.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 20

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 1

 

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24 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

PDX hasn’t been below 50 since May 22nd. How crazy is that? Might get really close to 5 months looking at models. 

That is astounding.  SEA snuck in a 49 on Sep 19 and also a couple in June.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 20

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 1

 

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Indeed.  Even though we came close to beating the 1967 record warm September that one was much hotter for max temps.  The warmth wasn't that noticeable this year (in September) because the maxes were within reason for the most part.

I found the warmth in September to be quite Noticeable 

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back to the 88-89 comparison

 

I like it.  Consistently snowing in Spokane from Nov-Feb.  ended up with 66.1" on the season, which is probably top 15 (need to do a deeper analysis)

 

a decent arctic outbreak around xmas (low of -5 on 12/26/88) and another in early Feb. Feb finished 11.5 below normal with a -4/-11 on 2/2/89

 

 

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Looks like 12Z GEFS is much farther west with that trough next weekend than the operational run and trended even a bit more ridgy than its 00Z run.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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GFS shows a big change, but there has been a lot of instability in the MJO forecast so who knows.  All runs show a major wave, but the exact placement and evolution have changed from a couple of days ago.  Probably going to be a lot of model fluctuation in the coming days.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 20

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 1

 

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32 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I found the warmth in September to be quite Noticeable 

Seattle only had five 80+ days which is pretty unremarkable.  The lows accounted for a big part of the warmth last month.  It's highly possible the highs were more anomalous for your area though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 20

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 1

 

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1 minute ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

The 12z GFS is an amazing run from day 10 on. 

It's a start.  I would love to see the ECMWF follow suit.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 20

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 1

 

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6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Seattle only had five 80+ days which is pretty unremarkable.  The lows accounted for a big part of the warmth last month.  It's highly possible the highs were more anomalous for your area though.

SEA ended up with an average high of 74.6 for the month.  The long term average is 69.7 so it was almost +5 for the month on high temps.

It was the 4th warmest September ever in terms of average high temp and the 6th warmest in terms of average low temp.

So the high temps were more impressive than the low temps.

 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Meatyorologist changed the title to October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza
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