TacomaWx Posted October 1, 2022 Report Share Posted October 1, 2022 Yet another month of summer…maybe. 1 1 2 Quote 2023 warm season stats Max temp-89 +80s-5 +85s-3 +90s-0 monthly rainfall-0.00” warm season rainfall-4.42” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 1, 2022 Report Share Posted October 1, 2022 Tim’s forecast is usually endless rain icons by now. It’s like we’ve swapped climates. 2 1 2 Quote PWS DATA Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 1, 2022 Report Share Posted October 1, 2022 Gonna get a wide variety of candy this year and the kids with good, creative costumes will get the full size Twix. The lame costumes will get fun size Dots. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats: Coldest high: 31F (Dec 22, 2022) Coldest low: 16F (Jan 30, 2023) Days with below freezing temps: 60 (Most recent: Mar 27, 2023) Days with sub-40F highs: 5 (Most recent: Jan 30, 2023) Total snowfall: 1.2" Last accumulating snowfall: Mar 5, 2023 Last sub-freezing high: Dec 22, 2022 (31F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall: Mar 5, 2023 Last sub-freezing high: Dec 22, 2022 (31F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 1 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 1, 2022 Report Share Posted October 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Gonna get a wide variety of candy this year and the kids with good, creative costumes will get the full size Twix. The lame costumes will get fun size Dots. Interesting way to do it. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2022-23 stats Total Snowfall = 9.2" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.4" Coldest Low = 17 Lows 32 or below = 72 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 4 Highs 40 or below = 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 1, 2022 Report Share Posted October 1, 2022 44 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: Yet another month of summer…maybe. Might be a huge transition. Definitely not for a while though. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2022-23 stats Total Snowfall = 9.2" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.4" Coldest Low = 17 Lows 32 or below = 72 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 4 Highs 40 or below = 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted October 1, 2022 Report Share Posted October 1, 2022 1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Gonna get a wide variety of candy this year and the kids with good, creative costumes will get the full size Twix. The lame costumes will get fun size Dots. Penalize kids who can’t afford good costumes/whose parents don’t help them as much. Sounds dope. 2 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted October 1, 2022 Report Share Posted October 1, 2022 2 hours ago, TacomaWx said: Yet another month of summer…maybe. Jim seems to think it could lead to something great though. Pretty noteworthy since he’s usually such a pessimist every fall... 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted October 1, 2022 Report Share Posted October 1, 2022 It's October now and we haven't had a frost yet or even the need for heater season yet. The sage bugs were terrible this week so hopefully we get a chill to kill them. Due to our rain we had a two day break from them. 1 Quote Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2022-2023 snowfall totals: 13.9 inches Highest snow total (per event): 2.20 inches (12/19/22 & 12/20/22) Most recent accumulating (non Trace) .10 on 3/08/23 Days with trace or more snow: 11/1/22 (1 inch), 11/28/22 (.80), 12/01/22 (T), 12/02/22 (T), 12/4/22 (.20), 12/5/22 (1.5), 12/14/22 (1.6), 12/18/22 (T), 12/19/22 (2.10), 12/20/22 (.10), 12/23/22 (2.0), 01/03/2023 (T), 1/22/23 (T), 2/21/23 (.10), 2/22/23 (.80), 2/23/23 (.20), 2/24/2023 (.50), 2/28/23 (.90), 3/5/2023 (2.0), 3/8/2023 (.10) First freeze: 11/3/22 (yes, after the first snowfall) Coldest low: 0F (12/21/2022) Last sub freezing high: 2/23/23 Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (I've also had a White Christmas in 2017 when I lived in Stanwood and a White Christmas at a hotel in Moscow, ID in 2020). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 1, 2022 Report Share Posted October 1, 2022 SEA ended up at 64.82 for September... good for 3rd warmest ever. 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted October 1, 2022 Report Share Posted October 1, 2022 31 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: SEA ended up at 64.82 for September... good for 3rd warmest ever. PDX was the warmest on record by almost 2 degrees. 69.5 avg temp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 1, 2022 Report Share Posted October 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, Doiinko said: PDX was the warmest on record by almost 2 degrees. 69.5 avg temp Wow. That is impressive. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 1, 2022 Report Share Posted October 1, 2022 1 minute ago, Eujunga said: Here's July-August-September for the entire West. Pretty anomalously warm. Not sure what station in northeast Lane County is throwing the averages so far off and creating a cool-temperature bull's eye. It certainly doesn't represent reality. Warmest July-September ever at SEA. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted October 1, 2022 Report Share Posted October 1, 2022 53 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: SEA ended up at 64.82 for September... good for 3rd warmest ever. Where do you find these stats? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 1, 2022 Report Share Posted October 1, 2022 22 minutes ago, Doiinko said: PDX was the warmest on record by almost 2 degrees. 69.5 avg temp That’s crazy. 2 degrees! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 1, 2022 Report Share Posted October 1, 2022 1 minute ago, T-Town said: Where do you find these stats? WRCC site. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 1, 2022 Report Share Posted October 1, 2022 6 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said: Jim seems to think it could lead to something great though. Pretty noteworthy since he’s usually such a pessimist every fall... Jim’s recent post (“Might be a huge transition. Definitely not for a while though.”) is actually pretty realistic for once. Beyond a week or two out is deep clown range, and climo says there should be a seasonal pattern change soon. I still think it’s generally going to suck this winter. Even if the rains do, as odds dictate, start this month, it’s going to be such a late start from such a dry summer that mushroom season is going to be a big bust, a’la 2012: by the time it’s wet enough, it will be too cold. And that will be the sucky start to a generally sucky rainy season. (Just a gut feeling, of course.) Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted October 1, 2022 Report Share Posted October 1, 2022 06z breaks the ridgy pattern down after the 10th. 00z Euro/EPS were nowhere close though. 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 1, 2022 Report Share Posted October 1, 2022 Looks like we might have set a record for warmest September at Shawnigan Lake. Still waiting on yesterdays data but it was slightly ahead of 2017. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 1, 2022 Report Share Posted October 1, 2022 Seeing lots of posts on social media about the drought ending in Seattle. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ubSz-okL7Yg Just awesome... I can watch that over and over and never get tired of it. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 1, 2022 Report Share Posted October 1, 2022 42 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Wow. That is impressive. Just one station Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 1, 2022 Report Share Posted October 1, 2022 Looks like we made it down to 49F. Currently 51F with some fog. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats: Coldest high: 31F (Dec 22, 2022) Coldest low: 16F (Jan 30, 2023) Days with below freezing temps: 60 (Most recent: Mar 27, 2023) Days with sub-40F highs: 5 (Most recent: Jan 30, 2023) Total snowfall: 1.2" Last accumulating snowfall: Mar 5, 2023 Last sub-freezing high: Dec 22, 2022 (31F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall: Mar 5, 2023 Last sub-freezing high: Dec 22, 2022 (31F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 1 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted October 1, 2022 Report Share Posted October 1, 2022 7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Seeing lots of posts on social media about the drought ending in Seattle. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ubSz-okL7Yg Just awesome... I can watch that over and over and never get tired of it. Sorry to break it to you, but Seattle is still having a drought 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 1, 2022 Report Share Posted October 1, 2022 Average temperatures are down to 63/45 now. October is going to be off to an insane start towards a record warm October Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted October 1, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 1, 2022 Low of 50 this morning. 3 years ago…the low temp was 36. 1 Quote 2023 warm season stats Max temp-89 +80s-5 +85s-3 +90s-0 monthly rainfall-0.00” warm season rainfall-4.42” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 1, 2022 Report Share Posted October 1, 2022 6 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said: Penalize kids who can’t afford good costumes/whose parents don’t help them as much. Sounds dope. You're in fine form this morning. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2022-23 stats Total Snowfall = 9.2" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.4" Coldest Low = 17 Lows 32 or below = 72 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 4 Highs 40 or below = 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 1, 2022 Report Share Posted October 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: Low of 50 this morning. 3 years ago…the low temp was 36. At least every clear night here is getting well below 50 now. We'll see if that holds true with the warmer pattern setting in. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2022-23 stats Total Snowfall = 9.2" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.4" Coldest Low = 17 Lows 32 or below = 72 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 4 Highs 40 or below = 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 1, 2022 Report Share Posted October 1, 2022 54 minutes ago, Eujunga said: Here's July-August-September for the entire West. Pretty anomalously warm. Not sure what station in northeast Lane County is throwing the averages so far off and creating a cool-temperature bull's eye. It certainly doesn't represent reality. I suppose one defective sensor in a sparely populated area could throw things off like that. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2022-23 stats Total Snowfall = 9.2" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.4" Coldest Low = 17 Lows 32 or below = 72 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 4 Highs 40 or below = 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 1, 2022 Report Share Posted October 1, 2022 38 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: Jim’s recent post (“Might be a huge transition. Definitely not for a while though.”) is actually pretty realistic for once. Beyond a week or two out is deep clown range, and climo says there should be a seasonal pattern change soon. I still think it’s generally going to suck this winter. Even if the rains do, as odds dictate, start this month, it’s going to be such a late start from such a dry summer that mushroom season is going to be a big bust, a’la 2012: by the time it’s wet enough, it will be too cold. And that will be the sucky start to a generally sucky rainy season. (Just a gut feeling, of course.) I have been pretty realistic overall lately. I hate the pattern we are in, but I'm simply pointing out this type of regime this time of year in a Nina has led to great stuff in the winter before. No doubt this is a lot like 1988 especially when looking at the 500mb level. I said many times there is also big bust potential this winter. Isn't a weather forum for throwing ideas out there? One member in particular seems to get offended by that. One thing that is nearly certain is this pattern will change. We'll have to see what that means exactly. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2022-23 stats Total Snowfall = 9.2" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.4" Coldest Low = 17 Lows 32 or below = 72 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 4 Highs 40 or below = 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted October 1, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 1, 2022 9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: At least every clear night here is getting well below 50 now. We'll see if that holds true with the warmer pattern setting in. We had 3 lows in the 40s in September but never below 48. Quote 2023 warm season stats Max temp-89 +80s-5 +85s-3 +90s-0 monthly rainfall-0.00” warm season rainfall-4.42” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshua Lake Oswego Posted October 1, 2022 Report Share Posted October 1, 2022 23 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: We had 3 lows in the 40s in September but never below 48. PDX hasn’t been below 50 since May 22nd. How crazy is that? Might get really close to 5 months looking at models. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted October 1, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said: PDX hasn’t been below 50 since May 22nd. How crazy is that? Might might it really close to 5 months looking at models. We also hit some record numbers for warm overnight lows up here. We had 21 +60 lows beating the record of 19 set just last year. Lot of the crooked warm averages set this summer have been due to very warm overnight lows. 2 1 Quote 2023 warm season stats Max temp-89 +80s-5 +85s-3 +90s-0 monthly rainfall-0.00” warm season rainfall-4.42” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 1, 2022 Report Share Posted October 1, 2022 16 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: We also hit some record numbers for warm overnight lows up here. We had 21 +60 lows beating the record of 19 set just last year. Lot of the crooked warm averages set this summer have been due to very warm overnight lows. Indeed. Even though we came close to beating the 1967 record warm September that one was much hotter for max temps. The warmth wasn't that noticeable this year (in September) because the maxes were within reason for the most part. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2022-23 stats Total Snowfall = 9.2" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.4" Coldest Low = 17 Lows 32 or below = 72 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 4 Highs 40 or below = 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 1, 2022 Report Share Posted October 1, 2022 24 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said: PDX hasn’t been below 50 since May 22nd. How crazy is that? Might get really close to 5 months looking at models. That is astounding. SEA snuck in a 49 on Sep 19 and also a couple in June. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2022-23 stats Total Snowfall = 9.2" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.4" Coldest Low = 17 Lows 32 or below = 72 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 4 Highs 40 or below = 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 1, 2022 Report Share Posted October 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Indeed. Even though we came close to beating the 1967 record warm September that one was much hotter for max temps. The warmth wasn't that noticeable this year (in September) because the maxes were within reason for the most part. I found the warmth in September to be quite Noticeable 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 1, 2022 Report Share Posted October 1, 2022 7 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: I found the warmth in September to be quite Noticeable It was a very summery month. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted October 1, 2022 Report Share Posted October 1, 2022 12z GFS actually shows a pattern change moving into mid month. Probably best to throw it out. Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 1, 2022 Report Share Posted October 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: It was a very summery month. The mean max for the month actually ended up warmer than we would historically see for the month of July. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 1, 2022 Report Share Posted October 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: 12z GFS actually shows a pattern change moving into mid month. Probably best to throw it out. I wouldn’t go so far but I wouldn’t take it super-seriously either. Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 1, 2022 Report Share Posted October 1, 2022 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted October 1, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 1, 2022 61 outside feels pretty warm. 1 Quote 2023 warm season stats Max temp-89 +80s-5 +85s-3 +90s-0 monthly rainfall-0.00” warm season rainfall-4.42” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 1, 2022 Report Share Posted October 1, 2022 Low of 52˚F. Pretty warm for a clear night in early October. Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshua Lake Oswego Posted October 1, 2022 Report Share Posted October 1, 2022 Is that a little AR action I see… 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted October 1, 2022 Report Share Posted October 1, 2022 back to the 88-89 comparison I like it. Consistently snowing in Spokane from Nov-Feb. ended up with 66.1" on the season, which is probably top 15 (need to do a deeper analysis) a decent arctic outbreak around xmas (low of -5 on 12/26/88) and another in early Feb. Feb finished 11.5 below normal with a -4/-11 on 2/2/89 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshua Lake Oswego Posted October 1, 2022 Report Share Posted October 1, 2022 Let’s swing this monster in. 4 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 1, 2022 Report Share Posted October 1, 2022 Looks like 12Z GEFS is much farther west with that trough next weekend than the operational run and trended even a bit more ridgy than its 00Z run. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 1, 2022 Report Share Posted October 1, 2022 GFS shows a big change, but there has been a lot of instability in the MJO forecast so who knows. All runs show a major wave, but the exact placement and evolution have changed from a couple of days ago. Probably going to be a lot of model fluctuation in the coming days. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2022-23 stats Total Snowfall = 9.2" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.4" Coldest Low = 17 Lows 32 or below = 72 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 4 Highs 40 or below = 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshua Lake Oswego Posted October 1, 2022 Report Share Posted October 1, 2022 The 12z GFS is an amazing run from day 10 on. 1 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 1, 2022 Report Share Posted October 1, 2022 32 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: I found the warmth in September to be quite Noticeable Seattle only had five 80+ days which is pretty unremarkable. The lows accounted for a big part of the warmth last month. It's highly possible the highs were more anomalous for your area though. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2022-23 stats Total Snowfall = 9.2" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.4" Coldest Low = 17 Lows 32 or below = 72 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 4 Highs 40 or below = 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 1, 2022 Report Share Posted October 1, 2022 1 minute ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said: The 12z GFS is an amazing run from day 10 on. It's a start. I would love to see the ECMWF follow suit. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2022-23 stats Total Snowfall = 9.2" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.4" Coldest Low = 17 Lows 32 or below = 72 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 4 Highs 40 or below = 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 1, 2022 Report Share Posted October 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Seattle only had five 80+ days which is pretty unremarkable. The lows accounted for a big part of the warmth last month. It's highly possible the highs were more anomalous for your area though. SEA ended up with an average high of 74.6 for the month. The long term average is 69.7 so it was almost +5 for the month on high temps. It was the 4th warmest September ever in terms of average high temp and the 6th warmest in terms of average low temp. So the high temps were more impressive than the low temps. 1 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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