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October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza


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Gonna get a wide variety of candy this year and the kids with good, creative costumes will get the full size Twix. The lame costumes will get fun size Dots.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 4F (Dec 1, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 13 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 0.5"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 0

 

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5 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Gonna get a wide variety of candy this year and the kids with good, creative costumes will get the full size Twix. The lame costumes will get fun size Dots.

Interesting way to do it.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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44 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Yet another month of summer…maybe. 

Might be a huge transition.  Definitely not for a while though.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Gonna get a wide variety of candy this year and the kids with good, creative costumes will get the full size Twix. The lame costumes will get fun size Dots.

Penalize kids who can’t afford good costumes/whose parents don’t help them as much. Sounds dope.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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2 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

Yet another month of summer…maybe. 

Jim seems to think it could lead to something great though. Pretty noteworthy since he’s usually such a pessimist every fall...

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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It's October now and we haven't had a frost yet or even the need for heater season yet. The sage bugs were terrible this week so hopefully we get a chill to kill them. Due to our rain we had a two day break from them.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2022-2023 snowfall totals: 2 inches

Highest snow total (per event): 1 inch: Nov 1

Most recent accumulating (non Trace) snowfall: .20 on 12/4/22

Days with any snow: 11/1/22, 11/28/22, 12/01/22 (trace), 12/02/22 (Trace)

First freeze: 11/3/22 (yes, after the first snowfall)

Coldest low: 13F (11/29/2022)

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5 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

PDX was the warmest on record by almost 2 degrees. 69.5 avg temp

Wow.    That is impressive.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Here's July-August-September for the entire West. Pretty anomalously warm.

Not sure what station in northeast Lane County is throwing the averages so far off and creating a cool-temperature bull's eye.  It certainly doesn't represent reality.

90dTDeptWRCC.jpg

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1 minute ago, Eujunga said:

Here's July-August-September for the entire West. Pretty anomalously warm.

Not sure what station in northeast Lane County is throwing the averages so far off and creating a cool-temperature bull's eye.  It certainly doesn't represent reality.

90dTDeptWRCC.jpg

Warmest July-September ever at SEA.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Jim seems to think it could lead to something great though. Pretty noteworthy since he’s usually such a pessimist every fall...

Jim’s recent post (“Might be a huge transition.  Definitely not for a while though.”) is actually pretty realistic for once. Beyond a week or two out is deep clown range, and climo says there should be a seasonal pattern change soon.

I still think it’s generally going to suck this winter. Even if the rains do, as odds dictate, start this month, it’s going to be such a late start from such a dry summer that mushroom season is going to be a big bust, a’la 2012: by the time it’s wet enough, it will be too cold. And that will be the sucky start to a generally sucky rainy season. (Just a gut feeling, of course.)

It's called clown range for a reason.

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Looks like we made it down to 49F. Currently 51F with some fog.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 4F (Dec 1, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 13 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 0.5"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 0

 

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Low of 50 this morning. 3 years ago…the low temp was 36. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-3

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-5.2”

Monthly rainfall-0.56”

Wet season rainfall-7.76”

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6 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Penalize kids who can’t afford good costumes/whose parents don’t help them as much. Sounds dope.

You're in fine form this morning.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Low of 50 this morning. 3 years ago…the low temp was 36. 

At least every clear night here is getting well below 50 now.  We'll see if that holds true with the warmer pattern setting in.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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54 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

Here's July-August-September for the entire West. Pretty anomalously warm.

Not sure what station in northeast Lane County is throwing the averages so far off and creating a cool-temperature bull's eye.  It certainly doesn't represent reality.

90dTDeptWRCC.jpg

I suppose one defective sensor in a sparely populated area could throw things off like that.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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38 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Jim’s recent post (“Might be a huge transition.  Definitely not for a while though.”) is actually pretty realistic for once. Beyond a week or two out is deep clown range, and climo says there should be a seasonal pattern change soon.

I still think it’s generally going to suck this winter. Even if the rains do, as odds dictate, start this month, it’s going to be such a late start from such a dry summer that mushroom season is going to be a big bust, a’la 2012: by the time it’s wet enough, it will be too cold. And that will be the sucky start to a generally sucky rainy season. (Just a gut feeling, of course.)

I have been pretty realistic overall lately.  I hate the pattern we are in, but I'm simply pointing out this type of regime this time of year in a Nina has led to great stuff in the winter before.  No doubt this is a lot like 1988 especially when looking at the 500mb level.  I said many times there is also big bust potential this winter.  Isn't a weather forum for throwing ideas out there?  One member in particular seems to get offended by that.  One thing that is nearly certain is this pattern will change.  We'll have to see what that means exactly.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

At least every clear night here is getting well below 50 now.  We'll see if that holds true with the warmer pattern setting in.

We had 3 lows in the 40s in September but never below 48. 

22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-3

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-5.2”

Monthly rainfall-0.56”

Wet season rainfall-7.76”

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3 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

PDX hasn’t been below 50 since May 22nd. How crazy is that? Might might it really close to 5 months looking at models. 

We also hit some record numbers for warm overnight lows up here. We had 21 +60 lows beating the record of 19 set just last year. Lot of the crooked warm averages set this summer have been due to very warm overnight lows. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-3

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-5.2”

Monthly rainfall-0.56”

Wet season rainfall-7.76”

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16 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

We also hit some record numbers for warm overnight lows up here. We had 21 +60 lows beating the record of 19 set just last year. Lot of the crooked warm averages set this summer have been due to very warm overnight lows. 

Indeed.  Even though we came close to beating the 1967 record warm September that one was much hotter for max temps.  The warmth wasn't that noticeable this year (in September) because the maxes were within reason for the most part.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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24 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

PDX hasn’t been below 50 since May 22nd. How crazy is that? Might get really close to 5 months looking at models. 

That is astounding.  SEA snuck in a 49 on Sep 19 and also a couple in June.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Indeed.  Even though we came close to beating the 1967 record warm September that one was much hotter for max temps.  The warmth wasn't that noticeable this year (in September) because the maxes were within reason for the most part.

I found the warmth in September to be quite Noticeable 

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7 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I found the warmth in September to be quite Noticeable 

It was a very summery month.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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back to the 88-89 comparison

 

I like it.  Consistently snowing in Spokane from Nov-Feb.  ended up with 66.1" on the season, which is probably top 15 (need to do a deeper analysis)

 

a decent arctic outbreak around xmas (low of -5 on 12/26/88) and another in early Feb. Feb finished 11.5 below normal with a -4/-11 on 2/2/89

 

 

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Looks like 12Z GEFS is much farther west with that trough next weekend than the operational run and trended even a bit more ridgy than its 00Z run.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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GFS shows a big change, but there has been a lot of instability in the MJO forecast so who knows.  All runs show a major wave, but the exact placement and evolution have changed from a couple of days ago.  Probably going to be a lot of model fluctuation in the coming days.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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32 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I found the warmth in September to be quite Noticeable 

Seattle only had five 80+ days which is pretty unremarkable.  The lows accounted for a big part of the warmth last month.  It's highly possible the highs were more anomalous for your area though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 minute ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

The 12z GFS is an amazing run from day 10 on. 

It's a start.  I would love to see the ECMWF follow suit.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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  • Meatyorologist changed the title to October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza
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