October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[TacomaWx]

Yet another month of summer…maybe. 

[Phil]

Tim’s forecast is usually endless rain icons by now.

It’s like we’ve swapped climates.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Gonna get a wide variety of candy this year and the kids with good, creative costumes will get the full size Twix. The lame costumes will get fun size Dots.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Gonna get a wide variety of candy this year and the kids with good, creative costumes will get the full size Twix. The lame costumes will get fun size Dots.

Interesting way to do it.

[snow_wizard]

44 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Yet another month of summer…maybe. 

Might be a huge transition.  Definitely not for a while though.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Gonna get a wide variety of candy this year and the kids with good, creative costumes will get the full size Twix. The lame costumes will get fun size Dots.

Penalize kids who can’t afford good costumes/whose parents don’t help them as much. Sounds dope.

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

Yet another month of summer…maybe. 

Jim seems to think it could lead to something great though. Pretty noteworthy since he’s usually such a pessimist every fall...

[LowerGarfield]

It's October now and we haven't had a frost yet or even the need for heater season yet. The sage bugs were terrible this week so hopefully we get a chill to kill them. Due to our rain we had a two day break from them.

[TT-SEA]

SEA ended up at 64.82 for September... good for 3rd warmest ever.

[Doinko]

31 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

SEA ended up at 64.82 for September... good for 3rd warmest ever.

PDX was the warmest on record by almost 2 degrees. 69.5 avg temp

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

PDX was the warmest on record by almost 2 degrees. 69.5 avg temp

Wow.    That is impressive.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Eujunga said:

Here's July-August-September for the entire West. Pretty anomalously warm.

Not sure what station in northeast Lane County is throwing the averages so far off and creating a cool-temperature bull's eye.  It certainly doesn't represent reality.

Warmest July-September ever at SEA.

[T-Town]

53 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

SEA ended up at 64.82 for September... good for 3rd warmest ever.

Where do you find these stats?

[ShawniganLake]

22 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

PDX was the warmest on record by almost 2 degrees. 69.5 avg temp

That’s crazy. 2 degrees!  

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, T-Town said:

Where do you find these stats?

WRCC site.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

6 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Jim seems to think it could lead to something great though. Pretty noteworthy since he’s usually such a pessimist every fall...

Jim’s recent post (“Might be a huge transition.  Definitely not for a while though.”) is actually pretty realistic for once. Beyond a week or two out is deep clown range, and climo says there should be a seasonal pattern change soon.

I still think it’s generally going to suck this winter. Even if the rains do, as odds dictate, start this month, it’s going to be such a late start from such a dry summer that mushroom season is going to be a big bust, a’la 2012: by the time it’s wet enough, it will be too cold. And that will be the sucky start to a generally sucky rainy season. (Just a gut feeling, of course.)

[Cascadia_Wx]

06z breaks the ridgy pattern down after the 10th. 00z Euro/EPS were nowhere close though.

[ShawniganLake]

Looks like we might have set a record for warmest September at Shawnigan Lake. Still waiting on yesterdays data but it was slightly ahead of 2017. 

[TT-SEA]

Seeing lots of posts on social media about the drought ending in Seattle.    

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ubSz-okL7Yg

Just awesome... I can watch that over and over and never get tired of it.   

[RentonHill]

42 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Wow.    That is impressive.

Just one station

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks like we made it down to 49F. Currently 51F with some fog.

[Timmy]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Seeing lots of posts on social media about the drought ending in Seattle.    

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ubSz-okL7Yg

Just awesome... I can watch that over and over and never get tired of it.   

Sorry to break it to you, but Seattle is still having a drought 

[ShawniganLake]

Average temperatures are down to 63/45 now.  October is going to be off to an insane start towards a record warm October 

[TacomaWx]

Low of 50 this morning. 3 years ago…the low temp was 36. 

[snow_wizard]

6 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Penalize kids who can’t afford good costumes/whose parents don’t help them as much. Sounds dope.

You're in fine form this morning.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Low of 50 this morning. 3 years ago…the low temp was 36. 

At least every clear night here is getting well below 50 now.  We'll see if that holds true with the warmer pattern setting in.

[snow_wizard]

54 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

Here's July-August-September for the entire West. Pretty anomalously warm.

Not sure what station in northeast Lane County is throwing the averages so far off and creating a cool-temperature bull's eye.  It certainly doesn't represent reality.

I suppose one defective sensor in a sparely populated area could throw things off like that.

[snow_wizard]

38 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Jim’s recent post (“Might be a huge transition.  Definitely not for a while though.”) is actually pretty realistic for once. Beyond a week or two out is deep clown range, and climo says there should be a seasonal pattern change soon.

I still think it’s generally going to suck this winter. Even if the rains do, as odds dictate, start this month, it’s going to be such a late start from such a dry summer that mushroom season is going to be a big bust, a’la 2012: by the time it’s wet enough, it will be too cold. And that will be the sucky start to a generally sucky rainy season. (Just a gut feeling, of course.)

I have been pretty realistic overall lately.  I hate the pattern we are in, but I'm simply pointing out this type of regime this time of year in a Nina has led to great stuff in the winter before.  No doubt this is a lot like 1988 especially when looking at the 500mb level.  I said many times there is also big bust potential this winter.  Isn't a weather forum for throwing ideas out there?  One member in particular seems to get offended by that.  One thing that is nearly certain is this pattern will change.  We'll have to see what that means exactly.

[TacomaWx]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

At least every clear night here is getting well below 50 now.  We'll see if that holds true with the warmer pattern setting in.

We had 3 lows in the 40s in September but never below 48. 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

23 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

We had 3 lows in the 40s in September but never below 48. 

PDX hasn’t been below 50 since May 22nd. How crazy is that? Might get really close to 5 months looking at models. 

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

PDX hasn’t been below 50 since May 22nd. How crazy is that? Might might it really close to 5 months looking at models. 

We also hit some record numbers for warm overnight lows up here. We had 21 +60 lows beating the record of 19 set just last year. Lot of the crooked warm averages set this summer have been due to very warm overnight lows. 

[snow_wizard]

16 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

We also hit some record numbers for warm overnight lows up here. We had 21 +60 lows beating the record of 19 set just last year. Lot of the crooked warm averages set this summer have been due to very warm overnight lows. 

Indeed.  Even though we came close to beating the 1967 record warm September that one was much hotter for max temps.  The warmth wasn't that noticeable this year (in September) because the maxes were within reason for the most part.

[snow_wizard]

24 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

PDX hasn’t been below 50 since May 22nd. How crazy is that? Might get really close to 5 months looking at models. 

That is astounding.  SEA snuck in a 49 on Sep 19 and also a couple in June.

[ShawniganLake]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Indeed.  Even though we came close to beating the 1967 record warm September that one was much hotter for max temps.  The warmth wasn't that noticeable this year (in September) because the maxes were within reason for the most part.

I found the warmth in September to be quite Noticeable 

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I found the warmth in September to be quite Noticeable 

It was a very summery month.  

[Cascadia_Wx]

12z GFS actually shows a pattern change moving into mid month. Probably best to throw it out.

[ShawniganLake]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It was a very summery month.  

The mean max for the month actually ended up warmer than we would historically see for the month of July. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

6 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

12z GFS actually shows a pattern change moving into mid month. Probably best to throw it out.

I wouldn’t go so far but I wouldn’t take it super-seriously either.

[RentonHill]

[TacomaWx]

61 outside feels pretty warm. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Low of 52˚F. Pretty warm for a clear night in early October.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

Is that a little AR action I see…

 

[Phishy Wx]

back to the 88-89 comparison

 

I like it.  Consistently snowing in Spokane from Nov-Feb.  ended up with 66.1" on the season, which is probably top 15 (need to do a deeper analysis)

 

a decent arctic outbreak around xmas (low of -5 on 12/26/88) and another in early Feb. Feb finished 11.5 below normal with a -4/-11 on 2/2/89

 

 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

Let’s swing this monster in.

 

[TT-SEA]

Looks like 12Z GEFS is much farther west with that trough next weekend than the operational run and trended even a bit more ridgy than its 00Z run.   

[snow_wizard]

GFS shows a big change, but there has been a lot of instability in the MJO forecast so who knows.  All runs show a major wave, but the exact placement and evolution have changed from a couple of days ago.  Probably going to be a lot of model fluctuation in the coming days.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

The 12z GFS is an amazing run from day 10 on. 

[snow_wizard]

32 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I found the warmth in September to be quite Noticeable 

Seattle only had five 80+ days which is pretty unremarkable.  The lows accounted for a big part of the warmth last month.  It's highly possible the highs were more anomalous for your area though.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

The 12z GFS is an amazing run from day 10 on. 

It's a start.  I would love to see the ECMWF follow suit.

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Seattle only had five 80+ days which is pretty unremarkable.  The lows accounted for a big part of the warmth last month.  It's highly possible the highs were more anomalous for your area though.

SEA ended up with an average high of 74.6 for the month.  The long term average is 69.7 so it was almost +5 for the month on high temps.

It was the 4th warmest September ever in terms of average high temp and the 6th warmest in terms of average low temp.

So the high temps were more impressive than the low temps.