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October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza


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6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Seattle only had five 80+ days which is pretty unremarkable.  The lows accounted for a big part of the warmth last month.  It's highly possible the highs were more anomalous for your area though.

SEA ended up with an average high of 74.6 for the month.  The long term average is 69.7 so it was almost +5 for the month on high temps.

It was the 4th warmest September ever in terms of average high temp and the 6th warmest in terms of average low temp.

So the high temps were more impressive than the low temps.

 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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This composite of October 1942 and 1988 is pretty amazing.  Both strong La Ninas with profound +PNA signature.  Both winters featured historic blocking during the heart of the winter and extreme cold in the NW.

This plot is not dissimilar to the PNA

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 4

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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22 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

back to the 88-89 comparison

 

I like it.  Consistently snowing in Spokane from Nov-Feb.  ended up with 66.1" on the season, which is probably top 15 (need to do a deeper analysis)

 

a decent arctic outbreak around xmas (low of -5 on 12/26/88) and another in early Feb. Feb finished 11.5 below normal with a -4/-11 on 2/2/89

 

 

There was a huge snowstorm in early March in the Western Lowlands as well.  There was also some decent snow in January in some places that not a lot of people talk about.  Then of course the main event in February.  Man that was COLD!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 4

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

SEA ended up with an average high of 74.6 for the month.  The long term average is 69.7 so it was almost +5 for the month on high temps.

It was the 4th warmest September ever in terms of average high temp and the 6th warmest in terms of average low temp.

So the high temps were more impressive than the low temps.

 

Have to admit that surprises me.  It was persistence of fairly warm as opposed to uncomfortable warmth though.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 4

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Another terrible GEFS run.  Insanely persistent.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 4

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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BD2CF1D0-F054-4E4A-A875-902778DF0438.thumb.jpeg.c32578bda6e265348d24b9758874c6ed.jpeg

Very hazy in eastern Seattle metro.

Wow, 20 miles from Seattle I’m already in the mountains! Takes quite a bit longer than that from Tigard and Corvallis that’s for sure. Expected it to be faster but not this fast!

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1 hour ago, Omegaraptor said:

We’re gonna get to Thanksgiving and still be in the 70s at this rate.

In 2010 it got into the 70s in early Nov and then we got one of the top November cold waves of all time.  The more ridiculous this gets the higher the potential of a good outcome later.  I really like me a cold October though.  Probably out of the question already.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 4

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

BD2CF1D0-F054-4E4A-A875-902778DF0438.thumb.jpeg.c32578bda6e265348d24b9758874c6ed.jpeg

Very hazy in eastern Seattle metro.

Wow, 20 miles from Seattle I’m already in the mountains! Takes quite a bit longer than that from Tigard and Corvallis that’s for sure. Expected it to be faster but not this fast!

This area is amazing.  From densely populated to nothing in a few miles.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 4

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

BD2CF1D0-F054-4E4A-A875-902778DF0438.thumb.jpeg.c32578bda6e265348d24b9758874c6ed.jpeg

Very hazy in eastern Seattle metro.

Wow, 20 miles from Seattle I’m already in the mountains! Takes quite a bit longer than that from Tigard and Corvallis that’s for sure. Expected it to be faster but not this fast!

Yeah usually don’t have issues with smoke in October pretty lame. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-2

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-2.7”

Monthly rainfall-0.02”

Wet season rainfall-7.22”

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Yeah usually don’t have issues with smoke in October pretty lame. 

It looks like this is still from Bolt Creek.  That is just smoldering now, but visible sat pic shows no other source.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 4

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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11 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

44C7603B-4D2D-429A-A54A-04CCFCF72A67.thumb.jpeg.937097c470761b6b9d91859c39dfd1f6.jpeg8BBB99A8-8E56-4EA1-8A3A-5E9227849675.thumb.jpeg.fcf40232969482cf3aac16cbe9b0af2e.jpeg

Here it is everyone. The myth, the legend, North Bend, Washington.

By the way, has our North Bend resident ever brought up that this place is gorgeous? Because it is.

Unusually dry!

We are in Pullman this weekend.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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12Z ECMWF gets there in a totally different way than the GFS.   Now it needs to get within 7 days.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I dig these warm/dry early falls.

Not because I enjoy them, I don't.

I dig them because when we have a cold/wet fall I always feel like it will lead to a warm/dry late fall and winter.

This is not science. This is how my mind works. 

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Nice somewhat chilly clipper on the ECMWF.  That could cause fire weather though.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 4

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Unusually dry!

We are in Pullman this weekend.

I’m also en route to the Columbia Basin for the weekend!

Just went over Snoqualmie Pass and now descending into the Upper Yakima Valley.

39912270-5ED7-4AE8-8473-FAF45C02A714.thumb.jpeg.0c401cea96b50f4674e7b7652784aefe.jpeg

 

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31 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It looks like this is still from Bolt Creek.  That is just smoldering now, but visible sat pic shows no other source.

There’s a couple other fires in the north cascades too. There’s also the Kalama fire down in the Mount St. Helens area but that’s not really affecting us. We’ve got a decent NE breeze here bringing the smoke in 68 degrees warm too. 

22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-2

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-2.7”

Monthly rainfall-0.02”

Wet season rainfall-7.22”

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6 minutes ago, rsktkr said:

I dig these warm/dry early falls.

Not because I enjoy them, I don't.

I dig them because when we have a cold/wet fall I always feel like it will lead to a warm/dry late fall and early winter.

This is not science. This is how my mind works. 

Maybe I spoke too soon?

8 days from today we have a front approaching from the west and then it's game on....supposedly.

gfs_ref_frzn_nwus_fh6-384.gif

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The models are just lost right now.  Run to run change on the ECMWF.

1665424800-1pKrj4VJar0.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 4

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Cascadia is on the rampage today.  Everyone is getting weenies or downs.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 4

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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2 hours ago, RentonHillTC said:

0EA35BF3-D2D5-4839-BC9C-2D9C144D4A33.gif

Polar ice cap rebuilding year?

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 46"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 0.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 0.75”; November 30th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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I can actually smell the smoke out there today in spite of it looking like no big deal on the visible sat pic.  Yuck.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 4

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

Lmao let’s stick to reality buddy

Won't matter whether or not the Arctic freezes when both the Columbia and the Sound are frozen over this January

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 46"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 0.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 0.75”; November 30th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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8 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Won't matter whether or not the Arctic freezes when both the Columbia and the Sound are frozen over this January

I have a pic of the waterfront starting to freeze in Seattle in Jan 1950.  Pretty unreal.  The Columbia was frozen 30 inches thick at Portland in 1862.  Those were the days!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 4

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Started out with fog and low clouds this morning. Sun is breaking through to clear skies.  Currently sitting at 63F with a predicted high of 72F that I do not think we will reach.  Hope everyone is having a lovely Saturday! 

 

 

Screen Shot 2022-10-01 at 1.17.55 PM.png

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  • Longtimer

Pleasant day. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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SMOKE OUTLOOK

Just want to point some stuff out.  We can still see a light hazy layer of smoke high aloft in much of Eastern Washington and Oregon.  It is also still prevalent in the Puget Sound and through the Chehalis Gap.  Same can be said with smoke in the South Willamette Valley.  Winds have shifted and we will see smoke blowing NE to W which should increase smoke in varying areas. The Lower Mainland is seeing a hefty amount of smoke coming in through the Fraser River Valley and this extends south in Whatcom County. Expect hazy skies and AQI's to degrade into Monday.  

Looks like Montana is getting some rain. 

Screen Shot 2022-10-01 at 1.20.42 PM.png

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68F and sunny in Pullman. Feeling a little envious of Cougs fans since it's a bit warm for dark shirts. Patchy clouds to the north but mostly sunny and bright. Light breeze.

IMG_20221001_132712988.jpg

IMG_20221001_132249825_BURST000_COVER_TOP.jpg

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2022-2023 snowfall totals: 1.75 inches

Highest snow total (per event): 1 inch: Nov 1-2

Coldest low: 13F (11/29/2022)

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4 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

🤢

 

 

Screen Shot 2022-10-01 at 1.27.21 PM.png

I would’ve killed for that weather on a consistent basis in July and august…the current 10 day forecast here seems so unnatural for the first 1/3rd of October. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-2

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-2.7”

Monthly rainfall-0.02”

Wet season rainfall-7.22”

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72 here…smoke seems to have increased a bit. I’ll have to look at the wx records when I get home but I’m pretty sure we haven’t been in the 70s in October in a few years. Some upper 70s are even showing up across the region. 

22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-2

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-2.7”

Monthly rainfall-0.02”

Wet season rainfall-7.22”

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I have a pic of the waterfront starting to freeze in Seattle in Jan 1950.  Pretty unreal.  The Columbia was frozen 30 inches thick at Portland in 1862.  Those were the days!

Boundary Bay froze in the December/January cold snap last winter.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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Jeez 84 at PDX. Don’t think they hit 90 but that’s pretty warm. 74 here. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-2

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-2.7”

Monthly rainfall-0.02”

Wet season rainfall-7.22”

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4 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

This composite of October 1942 and 1988 is pretty amazing.  Both strong La Ninas with profound +PNA signature.  Both winters featured historic blocking during the heart of the winter and extreme cold in the NW.

This plot is not dissimilar to the PNA

I was only 6 but I remember it snowing on Christmas Eve here in 1988.  Can’t remember where we were going but I remember being in the front seat of my dads truck and being pretty D**n excited about the snow. 

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Brian O'Keefe just hit his first base hit! But before you celebrate...

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 46"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 0.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 0.75”; November 30th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

Breezy!

In October!

Columbus Day is approaching! 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Gorgeous October day in Pullman.    Go Cougs!

20221001_143525.jpg

Not far from me. In the corner section in the shade (not the visitors section) Probably just over 70F and clouds now coming in from the East. I'm in the shade. Perfect weather for football.

16646642292204343532547379725688.jpg

2022-2023 snowfall totals: 1.75 inches

Highest snow total (per event): 1 inch: Nov 1-2

Coldest low: 13F (11/29/2022)

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  • Longtimer

Hard to complain about this. 

7ED57104-2DBE-48DF-88D7-BA5C35C7ACFA.jpeg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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I clearly see three fires around HWY 2 now.  Looks like they are picking up since this morning.  One might even be new.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 4.3"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 4

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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  • Meatyorologist changed the title to October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza
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