October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[snow_wizard]

This composite of October 1942 and 1988 is pretty amazing.  Both strong La Ninas with profound +PNA signature.  Both winters featured historic blocking during the heart of the winter and extreme cold in the NW.

[snow_wizard]

22 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

back to the 88-89 comparison

 

I like it.  Consistently snowing in Spokane from Nov-Feb.  ended up with 66.1" on the season, which is probably top 15 (need to do a deeper analysis)

 

a decent arctic outbreak around xmas (low of -5 on 12/26/88) and another in early Feb. Feb finished 11.5 below normal with a -4/-11 on 2/2/89

 

 

There was a huge snowstorm in early March in the Western Lowlands as well.  There was also some decent snow in January in some places that not a lot of people talk about.  Then of course the main event in February.  Man that was COLD!

[snow_wizard]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

SEA ended up with an average high of 74.6 for the month.  The long term average is 69.7 so it was almost +5 for the month on high temps.

It was the 4th warmest September ever in terms of average high temp and the 6th warmest in terms of average low temp.

So the high temps were more impressive than the low temps.

 

Have to admit that surprises me.  It was persistence of fairly warm as opposed to uncomfortable warmth though.

[Omegaraptor]

We’re gonna get to Thanksgiving and still be in the 70s at this rate.

[snow_wizard]

Another terrible GEFS run.  Insanely persistent.

[Omegaraptor]

Very hazy in eastern Seattle metro.

Wow, 20 miles from Seattle I’m already in the mountains! Takes quite a bit longer than that from Tigard and Corvallis that’s for sure. Expected it to be faster but not this fast!

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Omegaraptor said:

We’re gonna get to Thanksgiving and still be in the 70s at this rate.

In 2010 it got into the 70s in early Nov and then we got one of the top November cold waves of all time.  The more ridiculous this gets the higher the potential of a good outcome later.  I really like me a cold October though.  Probably out of the question already.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

Very hazy in eastern Seattle metro.

Wow, 20 miles from Seattle I’m already in the mountains! Takes quite a bit longer than that from Tigard and Corvallis that’s for sure. Expected it to be faster but not this fast!

This area is amazing.  From densely populated to nothing in a few miles.

[TacomaWx]

4 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Very hazy in eastern Seattle metro.

Wow, 20 miles from Seattle I’m already in the mountains! Takes quite a bit longer than that from Tigard and Corvallis that’s for sure. Expected it to be faster but not this fast!

Yeah usually don’t have issues with smoke in October pretty lame. 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Yeah usually don’t have issues with smoke in October pretty lame. 

It looks like this is still from Bolt Creek.  That is just smoldering now, but visible sat pic shows no other source.

[Omegaraptor]

Here it is everyone. The myth, the legend, North Bend, Washington.

By the way, has our North Bend resident ever brought up that this place is gorgeous? Because it is.

[TT-SEA]

11 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Here it is everyone. The myth, the legend, North Bend, Washington.

By the way, has our North Bend resident ever brought up that this place is gorgeous? Because it is.

Unusually dry!

We are in Pullman this weekend.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF gets there in a totally different way than the GFS.   Now it needs to get within 7 days.

[rsktkr]

I dig these warm/dry early falls.

Not because I enjoy them, I don't.

I dig them because when we have a cold/wet fall I always feel like it will lead to a warm/dry late fall and winter.

This is not science. This is how my mind works. 

[snow_wizard]

Nice somewhat chilly clipper on the ECMWF.  That could cause fire weather though.

[Omegaraptor]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Unusually dry!

We are in Pullman this weekend.

I’m also en route to the Columbia Basin for the weekend!

Just went over Snoqualmie Pass and now descending into the Upper Yakima Valley.

 

[TacomaWx]

31 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It looks like this is still from Bolt Creek.  That is just smoldering now, but visible sat pic shows no other source.

There’s a couple other fires in the north cascades too. There’s also the Kalama fire down in the Mount St. Helens area but that’s not really affecting us. We’ve got a decent NE breeze here bringing the smoke in 68 degrees warm too. 

[rsktkr]

6 minutes ago, rsktkr said:

I dig these warm/dry early falls.

Not because I enjoy them, I don't.

I dig them because when we have a cold/wet fall I always feel like it will lead to a warm/dry late fall and early winter.

This is not science. This is how my mind works. 

Maybe I spoke too soon?

8 days from today we have a front approaching from the west and then it's game on....supposedly.

[snow_wizard]

The models are just lost right now.  Run to run change on the ECMWF.

[snow_wizard]

Cascadia is on the rampage today.  Everyone is getting weenies or downs.

[Meatyorologist]

2 hours ago, RentonHillTC said:

Polar ice cap rebuilding year?

[snow_wizard]

I can actually smell the smoke out there today in spite of it looking like no big deal on the visible sat pic.  Yuck.

[RentonHill]

8 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Polar ice cap rebuilding year?

Lmao let’s stick to reality buddy

[Omegaraptor]

Very nice scenery around and east of Cle Elum. Reminds me a lot of Mosier/Rowena area, unsurprisingly. Rolling into Ellensburg now and there is not a lot of water in the Yakima.

Also it’s not windy.

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

Lmao let’s stick to reality buddy

Won't matter whether or not the Arctic freezes when both the Columbia and the Sound are frozen over this January

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Won't matter whether or not the Arctic freezes when both the Columbia and the Sound are frozen over this January

I have a pic of the waterfront starting to freeze in Seattle in Jan 1950.  Pretty unreal.  The Columbia was frozen 30 inches thick at Portland in 1862.  Those were the days!

[NWbyNW]

Started out with fog and low clouds this morning. Sun is breaking through to clear skies.  Currently sitting at 63F with a predicted high of 72F that I do not think we will reach.  Hope everyone is having a lovely Saturday! 

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pleasant day. 

[NWbyNW]

SMOKE OUTLOOK

Just want to point some stuff out.  We can still see a light hazy layer of smoke high aloft in much of Eastern Washington and Oregon.  It is also still prevalent in the Puget Sound and through the Chehalis Gap.  Same can be said with smoke in the South Willamette Valley.  Winds have shifted and we will see smoke blowing NE to W which should increase smoke in varying areas. The Lower Mainland is seeing a hefty amount of smoke coming in through the Fraser River Valley and this extends south in Whatcom County. Expect hazy skies and AQI's to degrade into Monday.  

Looks like Montana is getting some rain. 

[Phishy Wx]

 

 

[Phishy Wx]

Indeed a 'Broken Record'

 

change the thread title

[LowerGarfield]

68F and sunny in Pullman. Feeling a little envious of Cougs fans since it's a bit warm for dark shirts. Patchy clouds to the north but mostly sunny and bright. Light breeze.

[TacomaWx]

4 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

 

 

I would’ve killed for that weather on a consistent basis in July and august…the current 10 day forecast here seems so unnatural for the first 1/3rd of October. 

[Phil]

12z EPS is..consistent.

[Deweydog]

Breezy!

In October!

[TacomaWx]

72 here…smoke seems to have increased a bit. I’ll have to look at the wx records when I get home but I’m pretty sure we haven’t been in the 70s in October in a few years. Some upper 70s are even showing up across the region. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I have a pic of the waterfront starting to freeze in Seattle in Jan 1950.  Pretty unreal.  The Columbia was frozen 30 inches thick at Portland in 1862.  Those were the days!

Boundary Bay froze in the December/January cold snap last winter.

[Omegaraptor]

75 at Wenatchee Pangborn and 81 at Moses Lake. I’ll just average them and say it’s 78 here at the Gorge Amphitheater.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Going to the pumpkin patch today and I might wear shorts…… first time for everything I guess

[ShawniganLake]

Getting toasty out there for October. Up to 78F here. 

[TacomaWx]

Jeez 84 at PDX. Don’t think they hit 90 but that’s pretty warm. 74 here. 

[Doinko]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

Jeez 84 at PDX. Don’t think they hit 90 but that’s pretty warm. 74 here. 

Decently windy here as well

[ShawniganLake]

4 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

This composite of October 1942 and 1988 is pretty amazing.  Both strong La Ninas with profound +PNA signature.  Both winters featured historic blocking during the heart of the winter and extreme cold in the NW.

I was only 6 but I remember it snowing on Christmas Eve here in 1988.  Can’t remember where we were going but I remember being in the front seat of my dads truck and being pretty D**n excited about the snow. 

[Meatyorologist]

Brian O'Keefe just hit his first base hit! But before you celebrate...

[MossMan]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

Breezy!

In October!

Columbus Day is approaching! 

[TT-SEA]

Gorgeous October day in Pullman.    Go Cougs!

[LowerGarfield]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Gorgeous October day in Pullman.    Go Cougs!

Not far from me. In the corner section in the shade (not the visitors section) Probably just over 70F and clouds now coming in from the East. I'm in the shade. Perfect weather for football.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hard to complain about this. 

[snow_wizard]

I clearly see three fires around HWY 2 now.  Looks like they are picking up since this morning.  One might even be new.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Hard to complain about this. 

Yeah...A pattern that would bring uncomfortable heat in the summer is now quite enjoyable.