October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[MV_snow]

Rain here but nothing on radar. Feels like the first time since July 3 even though I know that’s not entirely true.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MV_snow said:

Rain here but nothing on radar. Feels like the first time since July 3 even though I know that’s not entirely true.

There is a little rain over your area on the radar...

https://atmos.uw.edu/current-weather/northwest-radar/

[TT-SEA]

We are still over 10 days away from meaningful rain... the only rain shown on the GFS through day 10 is the weak c-zone that is happening now.   I wonder how long it will take to bring back the smoke?    

Also noticed that there decent rain shown in SoCal.  

[TT-SEA]

On the doorstep at day 11 though... models have really become consistent with this trough which is impressive beyond day 10.

[Gradient Keeper]

[TT-SEA]

And there is the end of this smoke situation if it holds.    

[Anti Marine Layer]

[RentonHill]

GEM looks great

[RentonHill]

This sucks we have like 10 days of model riding ahead just to get some typical fall weather. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

This sucks we have like 10 days of model riding ahead just to get some typical fall weather. 

It’s getting unreal. I’m still not sold on the ridge breaking down. I’ve been thinking it will break down at some point since late July.

[Winterdog]

Is this even possible?

[RentonHill]

Just now, Winterdog said:

Is this even possible?

The raccoon eyes pattern. Should get @GHweatherChris back on

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

It’s getting unreal. I’m still not sold on the ridge breaking down. I’ve been thinking it will break down at some point since late July.

I bet we get 7-10 days of wettish weather and then it dries out again. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Just now, Eujunga said:

Sucks to have to run the a/c at 10 p.m. on October 10th, but it's still too smoky to open the windows, and it has only cooled down to 65º outside in any case.

Can't believe there are 10 more days of this before any meaningful change.

It's a Rex Block

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I bet we get 7-10 days of wettish weather and then it dries out again. 

You’re gonna get Jim all twitterpainted 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

45 at Dulles! Feels great!

[Anti Marine Layer]

20 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

GEM looks great

That thing off the CA coast retrogrades.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

You’re gonna get Jim all twitterpainted 

You know it’s gonna happen. Fall of 2008 was TORTURE. 

[Gradient Keeper]

It's a T-Rex Block. See what I did there. Okay.

00z ECMWF in 27 minutes

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You know it’s gonna happen. Fall of 2008 was TORTURE. 

Not even in the same league of bad as this year. I remember lots of crisp weather and nice fall colors in September and October 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Not even in the same league of bad as this year. I remember lots of crisp weather and nice fall colors in September and October 

Ahhh... it’s been pretty nice this month. Might as well enjoy the new normal . The worm will turn, SLE wil have another January with a mean temp around 45, aka the new normal. 1930 happened once. Wild. I was on flight 1936 today. Analog?!

[Deweydog]

Weenies have some ugly a** feet.

[Gradient Keeper]

Done deal. MBG!

[ShawniganLake]

Shawnigan Lake is running an impressive +10.7F for October so far. 

[smerfylicious]

6 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Done deal. MBG!

Open the pass! Riders! Assemble your skis!

[Deweydog]

5 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

Well... at least Rubus spared us his hairy legs, unlike the rest of you exhibitionists.

That fur is gonna come in awfully handy in about 90 days or so.

[snow_wizard]

I'm actually getting some bona fide rain tonight.  The first overperformance in forever.

[RentonHill]

It’s raining. 

[RentonHill]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

It’s raining. 

Apparently all my gutters leak now

[snow_wizard]

21 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Done deal. MBG!

The big question with the coming trough is how wet it will be.  If it's sharp and deep it won't be as wet as what is being shown on tonight's GFS.  This looks like it will be a big deal, but we've thought that before.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The big question with the coming trough is how wet it will be.  If it's sharp and deep it won't be as wet as what is being shown on tonight's GFS.  This looks like it will be a big deal, but we've thought that before.

I will be less cynical about such forecasts once they get within five days.

[Gradient Keeper]

Timing moving ahead on the GEFS

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I will be less cynical about such forecasts once they get within five days.

With this much model support it would be pretty amazing to have it fall through.  Late October seems like about as far as things could go without something happening.

[ShawniganLake]

Crystal clear here.  Moon looks nice and bright tonight, though not quite full.   Jupiter is also still very bright.  Looks like we’ll drop into the upper 40s tonight after a high of 70 today

[snow_wizard]

14 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Crystal clear here.  Moon looks nice and bright tonight, though not quite full.   Jupiter is also still very bright.  Looks like we’ll drop into the upper 40s tonight after a high of 70 today

The rain was certainly a surprise here.  When I looked at the radar it looked pretty localized though.

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF is going for much more GOA amplification than its 12z run and tonight's GFS.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z ECMWF

Obviously headed for colder and drier than the GFS.

Pretty amazing how the developing GOA block sucks the juice out of the Western Ridge.

[Gradient Keeper]

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Obviously headed for colder and drier than the GFS.

Pretty amazing how the developing GOA block sucks the juice out of the Western Ridge.

The way this strong block is pivoting I think the trough could carve out and allow for good amount of over-water trajectory and moisture.