October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[Winterdog]

43 after a low of 40.  Not a drop of rain here, October rain gauge still at zero.  A beautiful morning with no smoke.  The GFS has us returning to that miserable ridge at the end of the run.  Hopefully that will change since its so far out.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

43 after a low of 40.  Not a drop of rain here, October rain gauge still at zero.  A beautiful morning with no smoke.  The GFS has us returning to that miserable ridge at the end of the run.  Hopefully that will change since its so far out.

This time of year, a ridge after a good dump of rain could be nice and foggy and chilly at low levels.

[Meatyorologist]

28 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

How about a foot pic? How do we know you even got toes??

Fine... You'll get a foot pic out of me yet.

Real example coming when I get off work later today! Toes and all! Onlyfans link in bio

[Omegaraptor]

2 hours ago, Doiinko said:

Early Hoodoo/Bachy opening?

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

Early Hoodoo/Bachy opening?

12Z GFS looks much different so far for next week... ridge is much stronger at day 9.      It will be interesting to see if it still gets there on this run.

[TT-SEA]

Ridiculous. ridging... and big shift to cold for the Midwest.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Ridiculous. ridging... and big shift to cold for the Midwest.

Clown range gonna clown range.

[RentonHill]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Ridiculous. ridging... and big shift to cold for the Midwest.

[Phishy Wx]

Whomp Whomp

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Oof 

[MossMan]

We are only a few weeks away from eye candy clown range snowy solutions! Snowy Turkeys incoming! ️

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... the 12Z GEM also looks significantly stronger with the ridge at the end of the run compared to its 00Z run.

[RentonHill]

This rug pull was like if you had just saved up enough money to buy that rug you always wanted and then you get to the store and you realize that they just sold the last one and they're raising prices when the next batch comes in stock 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Yeah zero chance this month ends up anywhere near average out there.

Zero chance it’s not the warmest October ever by a large margin.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

7 minutes ago, MossMan said:

We are only a few weeks away from eye candy clown range snowy solutions! Snowy Turkeys incoming! ️

This year, eye candy clown range entails simply getting rain.

[MossMan]

Was a little chilly in Moses Lake 13yrs ago today! 

[TT-SEA]

This big rain event is just a mere 13 days away on the 12Z GFS... lock it in.

 

[MossMan]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

This big rain event is just a mere 13 days away on the 12Z GFS... lock it in.

This is going to lead up to something HUGE this winter! MBG!! 

[Winterdog]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

FWIW... the 12Z GEM also looks significantly stronger with the ridge at the end of the run compared to its 00Z run.

Please let us know if the ridge gets any stronger if you stumble across any further indications.

[Meatyorologist]

awnsawmbles will be ptelling

[Omegaraptor]

Another week of Redding/Fresno conditions in the Willamette Valley! Boating season extended again! Woohoo!!!

[Phishy Wx]

It's still Pool wx!!!!!

[MossMan]

8 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Another week of Redding/Fresno conditions in the Willamette Valley! Boating season extended again! Woohoo!!!

[Omegaraptor]

PAYBACK FOR APRIL AND MAY!!!

[TacomaWx]

Couer D’ Lane is pretty nice stopped for gas and coffee. Slight bit of haze but not bad much better than it has been at home recently. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Well shitt.

[RentonHill]

[Phishy Wx]

and so we wait.....

[Gradient Keeper]

Is this mine, or Jim's fault this time? I mean SHOULD the rug be pulled.

[Phishy Wx]

far enough out that we 'could' shift back to eye candy

[Kayla]

3 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

From what I remember, Bozeman is not all that far from West Yellowstone. He seems on track to do a late check-in in West Yellowstone tonight. Personally, I prefer to split the drive there into several days so I can dawdle on the way, but then again that was when I was between jobs and had the time to dawdle.

Was just in WYS yesterday. It's about 80min from Bozeman by car...20min by air!

[RentonHill]

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Is this mine, or Jim's fault this time? I mean SHOULD the rug be pulled.

My guess is that the only way this ridging goes away is for Jim to completely throw in the towel.  

[BLI snowman]

We are literally a dessert now. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

I hate to say “I told you so,” but….

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 hours ago, MossMan said:

44!

Only slightly above normal! Score!

[Kayla]

Ensembles still agree on a strong retrogression signal but not until the 21st.

Operational models got a little trigger happy last night!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, Kayla said:

Ensembles still agree on a strong retrogression signal but not until after the 21st.

Always 10 or more days out.

The problem is, the models don’t seem to understand RRR’s very well. So in the long range, they have this tendency to revert to climo norms. Which, to reiterate, always seem ten or more days away.

Eventually, it will revert to something more in line with climo. Eventually. It’s just that model runs showing so in clown range really don’t mean squat right now. It could easily be well into November before we get significant rain. And that could be an isolated rain event, and this could easily be the start of a prolonged drought if we get a dry, torchy, Niño-style winter. Eventually might take a long time.

[Deweydog]

F*ck… I just told my podiatrist about the MASSIVE pattern change and it’s timing moving up.

[Kayla]

Whats the latest 80 on record for SEA and and 90 in SLE? This is pretty crazy for mid Jul...I mean October!

Edit: Just looked it up, latest 80+ at SEA was 10/14/61 so this would beat it by a day. Latest 90 for SLE is 10/10/34 so this would also beat the record.