May 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

PDX has had seven days of 85+ this year. No 90s. Today looks more like an 88 or 89 type day.

I would agree.

 

I'd joke about the possibility of a 90-less summer, but this weekend looks like a pretty easy call.

[Front Ranger]

True, but the soils are much drier in September thanks to the preceding months. 

 

 

I've always seen "dry season" as a reference to precip, not soil moisture.

[Front Ranger]

 

I've always seen "dry season" as a reference to precip, not soil moisture.

 

In addition, Jesse's post was in reply to a post about low river levels/drought. It's unlikely that June rains would alleviate that much. Could help the drought situation a bit, but the rivers will likely remain low until the fall rains regardless.

[BLI snowman]

 

I've always seen "dry season" as a reference to precip, not soil moisture.

 

It's obviously two-fold. September is literally "drier" than June around here on average, based on soil and vegetation. I usually see "dry season" and "fire season" as pretty interchangeable semantically, for that reason. September is definitely more involved in that than June is on average. 

[MossMan]

Oh yes.

 

They are cool but can also be very destructive.   I guess they were here first though.  

 

If you drive up our road around dusk you are almost guaranteed to see elk every time.

Always my worry when making my weekly drive from Stanwood to Eastern Wa over I-90 during the early morning hours. See them often on the side of the roads, luckily none have tried to cross in front of me.

[Jesse]

Always my worry when making my weekly drive from Stanwood to Eastern Wa over I-90 during the early morning hours. See them often on the side of the roads, luckily none have tried to cross in front of me.

They're probably glad you haven't tried to cross in front of them too.

[MossMan]

Side note... our fruit trees are all producing at an insane rate this spring.     We must have 300 apples on one tree alone... and we have plum trees that are just absolutely covered in plums when there was almost none last year.

 

I am almost sure the extended cold spell around Christmas and New Years with snow on the ground for almost a month was the perfect thing for our trees and something that was missing last winter here.

Our plum and apple trees are going nuts as well. Our cherries are struggling a bit however. Guess Cliff Mass was right about the cool and wet weather effecting them.

[Jesse]

It's obviously two-fold. September is literally "drier" than June around here on average, based on soil and vegetation. I usually see "dry season" and "fire season" as pretty interchangeable semantically, for that reason. September is definitely more involved in that than June is on average.

I think what we are witnessing right now is Jared literally creating an argument out of thin air.

[Front Ranger]

It's obviously two-fold. September is literally "drier" than June around here on average, based on soil and vegetation. I usually see "dry season" and "fire season" as pretty interchangeable semantically, for that reason. September is definitely more involved in that than June is on average. 

 

Eh, the fire season obviously occurs during the dry season, but I don't see them as interchangeable. Look up "dry season" anywhere, and it clearly is in reference to precip. Jesse's sentence, whether he intended it or not, made it sound like September is drier than June in the PNW - which actually is a fairly common misconception. 

 

Not a big deal, just pointing out that June is just as much a part of the PNW dry season as September.

[Front Ranger]

I've noticed that in general, daytime heating to reach the daily maximum in a summer-type pattern takes much longer and is much more gradual in the PNW than in SoCal.

 

In SoCal, on a day that tops out at 100, it'll be 90 by 9 a.m. and mid-90s by noon, climbing only a little more to reach the daily maximum by 2:00 or 3:00.  In Eugene, even on a 100-degree day, it'll still be in the low 80s at noon and keep gradually climbing through the afternoon to reach that 100-degree high as late as 5:00 or even 6:00.

 

Not sure why the difference.

 

I'd imagine a big part of it is the sun angle aspect. Further north, longer afternoons, later afternoon heating.

[BLI snowman]

Eh, the fire season obviously occurs during the dry season, but I don't see them as interchangeable. Look up "dry season" anywhere, and it clearly is in reference to precip. Jesse's sentence, whether he intended it or not, made it sound like September is drier than June in the PNW - which actually is a fairly common misconception. 

 

Not a big deal, just pointing out that June is just as much a part of the PNW dry season as September.

 

Well then, it's certainly a good thing we have crusaders like yourself to keep any and every September vs. June minsconceptions in check.  

[ShawniganLake]

2016 going to be the warmest spring on record here. Breaking the 1934 record by 0.5F.

 

Top 5.

2016

1934

1992

2015

2004

 

Credit to the member "glacier" for the stats.

[Front Ranger]

Well then, it's certainly a good thing we have crusaders like yourself to keep any and every September vs. June minsconceptions in check.  

 

 

[MossMan]

A bit hazy today.

[Jesse]

A bit hazy today.

 

Might hurt the cherries.

 

There was also this weird period of near total darkness between 9pm and 5am. I'm concerned that might have a negative effect on them as well.

[TT-SEA]

Might hurt the cherries.

 

There was also this weird period of near total darkness between 9pm and 5am. I'm concerned that might have a negative effect on them as well.

Bigger question is if the grass is green enough for Andrew's sheep?

[Jesse]

Bigger question is if the grass is green enough for Andrew's sheep?

 

Moot point. Andrew had a lot of mutton over the holidays this year.

[MossMan]

Might hurt the cherries.

 

There was also this weird period of near total darkness between 9pm and 5am. I'm concerned that might have a negative effect on them as well.

Yeah the 9pm to 5am darkness thing is quite odd...and very blog worthy!

[Guest Winterdog]

Oh yes.

 

They are cool but can also be very destructive.   I guess they were here first though.  

 

If you drive up our road around dusk you are almost guaranteed to see elk every time.

Sounds like you've had some Elke Sommers where you live.

[Front Ranger]

 

Distinct lack of concern about the fire season this year, compared to last. Hmm...

[Front Ranger]

Moot point. Andrew had a lot of mutton over the holidays this year.

I prefer apple-fed Elk meat to mutton.

[Jesse]

I prefer apple-fed Elk meat to mutton.

I actually tried elk for the first time a couple weeks ago. Elk burger from Deschutes brewery in Bend. Very good. Joe Rogan was on to something.

[Front Ranger]

I actually tried elk for the first time a couple weeks ago. Elk burger from Deschutes brewery in Bend. Very good. Joe Rogan was on to something.

Yep. Definitely better than deer.

[Phil]

CanSIPS monthlies are out. Obviously anomalies are somewhat smoothed given its an ensemble mean, but clearly it wants to stick a fat pig ridge over the Central US, which falls in line with the recent ECMWF weeklies/monthlies.

 

Would be slightly cooler than average in the PNW both months, warm pretty much everywhere else, including Alaska w/ the strong Aleutian/NPAC ridge.

 

 

[Phil]

The 12z EPS/CMC ensemble means are in great agreement in the 11-15 day range, now. However, the 18z GEFS says "not so fast" in regards to the PNA breakdown.

 

Any bets on the eventual winner? It's rare, but occasionally the GEFS will score a coup. I've never seen it happen when the Canadian and European suite are in agreement, though.

[Jesse]

The 12z EPS/CMC ensemble means are in great agreement in the 11-15 day range, now. However, the 18z GEFS says "not so fast" in regards to the PNA breakdown.

Any bets on the eventual winner? It's rare, but occasionally the GEFS will score a coup. I've never seen it happen when the Canadian and European suite are in agreement, though.

Even the 18z ensembles are troughy in the long range. So likely the EURO and Canadian emerge victorious.

[TT-SEA]

CanSIPS monthlies are out. Obviously anomalies are somewhat smoothed given its an ensemble mean, but clearly it wants to stick a fat pig ridge over the Central US, which falls in line with the recent ECMWF weeklies/monthlies.

 

Would be slightly cooler than average in the PNW both months, warm pretty much everywhere else, including Alaska w/ the strong Aleutian/NPAC ridge.

 

image.jpeg

 

image.jpeg

 

 

Looks about average here... 500mb heights in the 576DM to 580DM range.

[Jesse]

Looks about average here... 500mb heights in the 576DM to 580DM range.

Mean trough position would suggest a lot of marine influence, though.

[Jesse]

No 5pm update at PDX. The world watches and waits...

[Phil]

Looks about average here... 500mb heights in the 576DM to 580DM range.

Remember the ensemble mean will flatten waves overall, so you kinda have to extrapolate a bit.

[Phil]

Even the 18z ensembles are troughy in the long range. So likely the EURO and Canadian emerge victorious. image.png

Definitely agree with this. Will be fun to watch unfold either way.

[TT-SEA]

Mean trough position would suggest a lot of marine influence, though.

Which is normal as well.

[Jesse]

Which is normal as well.

Normally deadly.

[Deweydog]

Nice day. Indian summer.

[BLI snowman]

No 5pm update at PDX. The world watches and waits...

88 was their high. Stuck in eternal upper 80's purgatory.

[Front Ranger]

88 was their high. Stuck in eternal upper 80's purgatory.

 

On pace to break the record for 85+ days, yet fall WELL below average for 90+.

[GHweatherChris]

On pace to break the record for 85+ days, yet fall WELL below average for 90+.

Or FALL will help destroy the 90 record!

[BLI snowman]

On pace to break the record for 85+ days, yet fall WELL below average for 90+.

Maybe they'll miss 90+ on Saturday and go straight for 100 on Sunday!

[Phil]

The 00z goofus looks even more bizzare than its earlier 12z run, if that were at all possible. Looks to be mishandling the momentum transfer into the offshore ridge starting day 9.

[TT-SEA]

The 00z goofus looks even more bizzare than its earlier 12z run, if that were at all possible. Looks to be mishandling the momentum transfer into the offshore ridge starting day 9.

 

 

How about the 00Z Canadian?   Seems like sort of a compromise?

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gif